Giants Better or Worse?

[Rog]

On Sports Talk Live yesterday one of the questions asked was whether the Giants are better this season than the team they ended last season with, or whether they are worse.  The feeling was unanimous that they were worse.

Personally I think either answer is correct, depending on how one looks at the situation.

They are worse if we look solely at Pablo Sandoval and Mike Morse gone, replaced by Casey McGehee and Nori Aoki.  Almost no one would make that trade.

On they other hand they are better if one looks at Pablo and Mike gone and Travis Ishikawa/Juan Perez and Gregor Blanco not starting, with Casey, Nori, Matt Cain and Angel Pagan now available.  Almost everyone would make this trade -- and the Giants still have Ishikawa, Perez and Blanco.

If someone takes the tack that the Giants are worse with Cain, Pagan and company, aren't they saying the Giants were extremely lucky to win the World Series last season?

[Rog]

One argument why the Giants are worse is that they have far less power. We're not sure whether the "far" applies, but the "less" certainly does.

But that may not be critical. The Giants won the World Series in 2012 despite finishing last in the majors with 103 homers. That was also the season Tim Lincecum fell apart, and Barry Zito was still in the rotation, even starting in the postseason. The guy who played second base the most was Ryan Theriot.

The point is that it is certainly possible to win it all with holes. Left field, center field and starters two through four weren't holes for the Giants last postseason? That didn't turn out too badly though.

The question about the 2015 Giants isn't whether they have the best team. The question is whether they can ply their magic as they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Odds are they can't. But the odds were against them in 2010, 2012 and 2014, as well.

[sfgdood]

The team is worse and it's not even close. The lineup has taken two huge hits, replaced with old cheap options near the end of their careers. The starting rotation is filled with question marks. In 2012 the pitching was a lot more dominant, which is why they could survive with very little pop. I'm thinking that team hit more homers than we'll see this year.

[Rog]

El Dooderino -- The team is worse and it's not even close.

Rog -- If you're ignoring the injury situation at the end of last season, you are right with the first half of your statement, although you may have stretched a bit on the second half.

El Dooderino -- The lineup has taken two huge hits, replaced with old cheap options near the end of their careers.

Rog -- If what you say is true, Mike Morse is also near the end of his, which means virtually no loss age-wise with him. One might argue that he is "older" than either McGehee or Aoki, since he has had a significant injury history, while the other two players have fairly clear ones.

Certainly Pablo is younger by four years or so, but I think most would consider him an "old" 28. He too has had injury issues, and his weight has no doubt put a lot of pressure on his joints.

Prince Fielder is a player of similar height and weight to Pablo. When he was three months younger than Pablo will be this season, his OPS dropped from .940 to .819. Last season Prince missed 120 games due to injury.

Pablo's OPS last season was .739. A drop similar to Prince's would make us thrilled that the Giants didn't re-sign him. Pablo's OPS has already been dropping the past three seasons and last season was 170 points lower than it was three seasons before. The starting rotation is filled with question marks.

One can certainly argue that the two the Giants lost are better players than the two they gained. I don't think anyone here would disagree. But to say that McGehee and Aoki are near the ends of their careers without mentioning that Morse is the same age as they seems myopic.

El Dooderino -- In 2012 the pitching was a lot more dominant, which is why they could survive with very little pop.

Rog -- Last season with another poor season from Tim Lincecum and an injury-plagued campaign by Matt Cain, the Giants' team ERA was 18 points lower than in 2012. To say the 2012 pitching was a lot more dominant cannot be supported by the facts.

El Dooderino -- I'm thinking that team hit more homers than we'll see this year.

Rog -- You could be right -- although I doubt it. Last year's team hit 132. Take away the 16 each from Pablo and Mike plus take out Brandon Hicks' 8, and we're down to 92. The Giants hit 103 in 2012, meaning they need to add 11 more to equal 2012.

How can they do that?

To start, add in the meager total of five from McGehee and Aoki. That means they would need an additional six for your thought. There are a few different places those could come from:

. Pro-rated over a full season, Brandon Belt's 12 homers last season would have been 32. It seems reasonable that if healthy he would increase his total by 10 or more, wiping out the deficit all by himself.

. Hunter Pence was limited to just 20 homers last season. The previous six he had hit 25, 25, 25, 22, 24 and 27. Hunter has been a highly consistent home run hitter. If he reverts to his average, that would be four more knocks.

. Neither McGehee nor Aoki had any significant power last season. As mentioned, they combined for just five home runs. If we go back to the last previous season for each though, they hit 17 -- an increase of a dozen. If we go back to the penultimate full season from each, they hit 23. In a way it would be surprising if the pair didn't double their home run totals from last season, and tripling it wouldn't seem out of the question.

The bottom line is that the Giants have a lot of reasonable sources from whom they might get added homers. I would think the over/under on 2015 Giants homers might be at least 110.

I personally think Belt should be the best source of power improvement. Belt has 29 homers in his last 723 at bats. That pro-rates to about 22 homers over a full 550 at bat season from a #3 hitter. That would be an increase of 10 homers and would essentially wipe out the projected deficit all by itself.

Extending his sample a bit, Brandon has 32 homers in his last 804 at bats. So Brandon has been homering once every 25 at bats or so over the past 2+ seasons. His good level of power doesn't seem to be just a fluke. The only thing that limited him last season was injuries.

Even with Brandon's injury history, I would think the over/under on his 2015 home runs would be about 20.

I certainly don't expect the Giants to hit a lot of homers, but I would be surprised if they hit fewer than in 2012.

By the way, if you're going to talk about guys who might significantly go the other way, Buster Posey is a candidate. Buster's average home run last season went 14 feet less than his homers in 2013. That's not insignificant, especially when one considers how Buster's 2013 season was seen to have been significantly limited by his tiring out, something that didn't happen last season.

Perhaps you might want to explain why you think the Giants will hit fewer homers this season than in 2012, Randy.

You're hanging your hat on fewer homers and a far less dominant pitching staff. The facts just don't support that.

One fact that surfaced today does help your argument, however. Apparently Matt Cain has become questionable for his first start of the season. With Cain and Tim Hudson on the mend, the Giants' re-signing Ryan Vogelsong for depth is looking more and more like a good move.

Still, a significant loss of Cain and Hudson would put a real crimp in the Giants' rotation.

One last item: The Giants will have the #18 and #31 overall picks in the 2015 entry draft. #31 came as compensation for the loss of Pablo Sandoval. One could look at the failure to sign Pablo as a "trade" for Jake Peavy, Casey McGehee, Nori Aoki and the #31 overall pick. Looked at in that light, the loss of Pablo doesn't seem quite so bad.

If we take Peavy's WAR with the Giants only, they "traded" Pablo's 3.4 WAR for a combined 3.2 WAR from Peavy, McGehee and Aoki. Pretty darn close. It should fairly be noted though that Pablo's WAR came from just one position (third base), while Peavy's, McGehee's and Aoki's WAR came from three different spots.

The Giants certainly haven't replaced Pablo's power. But a healthy Brandon Belt could take a significant step in that direction.


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[klaiggeb]

I'm siding with Randy. Worse. And it's not even an arguable point, though many of you try, from where I sit.

I've said before, I can live with the lineup... barely, but the starting staff?


3rd place.

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- I'm siding with Randy. Worse.

Rog -- I sided with him too -- when comparing Sandoval/Morse with McGehee/Aoki. Virtually no one would make that trade. But at the end of the season (which is what was being discussed on Sports Talk Live) the Giants didn't have Cain or Pagan on their active roster. I don't think anyone would be likely to trade McGehee/Aoki/Cain/Pagan for Sandoval/Morse.

I'm not disagreeing here. I am merely stating that the answer one gives should be based on what we're comparing. I haven't come across anyone yet who has added Cain and Pagan to the equation.

You guys agree with the "experts" on Sports Talk Live (on he channel that televises Giants games). And you all are right -- as long as we don't consider Cain and Pagan.

[sfgdood]

The problem with adding both Pagan and Cain into the equation, you're counting on the health and productivity of both players, which is no sure thing. Pagan has never stayed healthy for a full season and Cain is coming off two different surgeries. Even under optimal conditions, we wont really be sure about Matt until about a month or so into the season. Pagan has missed so much time that nobody is sure what we'll get even if he's healthy.

[Rog]

El Dooderino -- The problem with adding both Pagan and Cain into the equation, you're counting on the health and productivity of both players, which is no sure thing. Pagan has never stayed healthy for a full season and Cain is coming off two different surgeries. Even under optimal conditions, we wont really be sure about Matt until about a month or so into the season. Pagan has missed so much time that nobody is sure what we'll get even if he's healthy.

Rog -- These are good points. Tim Hudson has health issues, as well.

Still, would you trade -- right now and based on talent and potential, not on contracts -- Pablo Sandoval and Mike Morse for Casey McGehee, Nori Aoki, Matt Cain and Angel Pagan? I certainly would.

To top it off, a more accurate expression of the "trade" would be Sandoval and Morse for McGehee, Aoki, Cain, Pagan, Peavy, Romo and Vogelsong. Now the "trade" looks even more one-sided.

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[sfgdood]

Whether I would or would not make the trade is irrelevant because the premise is invalid. Both Pagan and Cain were going to be on the team regardless. As to whether they will contribute enough to make this year's team as good as last year's is a big question mark still. Therefore, until proven otherwise, I say the team is worse based on known factors.

[Rog]

El Dooderino -- Whether I would or would not make the trade is irrelevant because the premise is invalid. Both Pagan and Cain were going to be on the team regardless. As to whether they will contribute enough to make this year's team as good as last year's is a big question mark still. Therefore, until proven otherwise, I say the team is worse based on known factors.

Rog -- And I agree with you when comparing Sandoval/Morse with McGehee/Aoki. That's an easy call. And I was wrong when I added Peavy, Romo and Vogelsong into the comparison. They were on the active roster at the end of the postseason.

But Cain and Pagan weren't, so a fair comparison may still be Sandoval/Morse to McGehee/Aoki/Cain/Pagan. I would take the latter group.

Neither Cain nor Pagan was on the roster when the Giants won the World Series. The Giants' only losses from that roster were Sandoval and Morse. Significant losses. The players they now have that weren't on that roster were McGehee, Aoki, Cain and Pagan. Very significant gains.

Your point that we don't know how much Cain and Pagan will contribute is a good one. But their chances are good enough that almost anyone would trade Sandoval and Morse for them, McGehee and Pagan.


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