Post by Rog on Jan 18, 2015 10:06:42 GMT -5
Here are a couple of reactions to the Giants' signing of Nori Aoki.
From Dave Cameron of Fan Graphs:
At this price, this is probably going to go down as one of the better free agent signings of the winter. Aoki isn’t any kind of star, but he’s a perfectly acceptable corner outfielder. He doesn’t have a platoon split issue, so he can play everyday. He’s a good enough defender to not need to be subbed out for a late game replacement. And yet the Giants are basically paying him like a bench player.
Heyman notes that Aoki took less money to play for the Giants, so perhaps there’s some World Series discount in here, but this is still a huge bargain. In a market where worse players are signing for $20 million and costing their teams a first round pick, Aoki for $5 million is kind of amazing.
From Jeff Sullivan, also of Fan Graphs:
Yet there’s so much more to baseball than home runs. Sabean, at least, is betting on that being true. Dave already wrote some time back that Aoki compares very well to Nick Markakis, who signed with the Braves for $44 million. Aoki has signed for a minimum of $4.7 million and one year, and he’s signed for a maximum of $12.5 million and two years. Aoki apparently turned down a bigger offer or three because of San Francisco’s comfort and track record, but I think he’s been pretty clearly undervalued, which makes this a good get for a team whose success somehow always seems sneaky.
He’s very difficult to strike out. Every year, Aoki posts one of baseball’s highest contact rates. He doesn’t chase much, so Aoki can also work a walk. He’s shown absolutely no vulnerability against left-handed pitchers, so he doesn’t need to be platooned, and there might be no less shiftable hitter in the game. Aoki hits the ball anywhere and everywhere, provided you’re only looking within 350 feet of home plate. Though people remember some Aoki baserunning gaffes, he’s not a lousy baserunner. Though people remember some Aoki defensive gaffes, he’s not a lousy defender. As a matter of fact, by both DRS and UZR, he’s been above-average.
But while the 2015 Giants should miss a few dingers, they shouldn’t miss much overall run production. Aoki in particular is a non-star player, but the evidence suggests he’s a wonderful bargain.
No team in baseball is projected to be less powerful than the 2015 San Francisco Giants. They locked up that position by inking Nori Aoki to play regularly in the outfield. I can’t imagine it’s something they’re worried about.
From Neil Povio of Fansided:
We know that Aoki will be the Giants’ new starting left fielder, but he could also be the Giants’ new lead-off hitter. That statement might raise some eyebrows, but here are the facts: Aoki is less injury prone than Pagan. He has played an average of 146 games over the past three seasons compared to Pagan’s average of 107 games.
Aoki has finished in the top four in the Majors for fewest strike outs per at bats the last three seasons — 10.0 at bats per strikeout in 2014 — compared to Pagan’s 6.4 at bats per strikeout. Aoki’s career on base percentage (OBP) is .353, 19 points higher than Pagan’s .334 career OBP. And lastly, Aoki might be seen as more of a threat to steal bases than Pagan is now, especially after Pagan’s leg injuries over the last two seasons. Pagan has only averaged 18 stolen bases over the last three seasons compared to Aoki’s average of 22 stolen bases.
If there is any doubt about Aoki’s speed, here’s another impressive stat that should help prove has fast he is: 108 infield singles over the last three seasons, including 40 in 2014 (second most in the majors).
From Grant Brisbee of The McCovey Chronicles:
However, Aoki is a leadoff hitter. The Giants already had a leadoff hitter in Angel Pagan. There is conflict, and we're here to resolve it.
Aoki gets on base more often
It's close, don't get me wrong. Aoki has a .353 OBP over the last three years, and Pagan's at .338. Park effects gets Pagan closer, if not all the way there, but Aoki's OBP is propped up more by walks and HBP, which means I trust it slightly more.
These hairs won't split themselves, folks.
Pagan hits for more power
In theory. The Chris Farley in me wants to remind you of the year Pagan set a San Francisco record for triples and hit 38 doubles. Remember that? That was cool. Still, in theory, Pagan's bat would play better a little lower in the order, when he's not batting behind mostly non-Bumgarners.
Pagan is a switch-hitter
A switch-batter, at least. He hits lefties worse than righties over his career, though not as dramatically as last year's splits would indicate. Still, a switch-hitter between Hunter Pence and Casey McGehee would prevent opposing managers from playing pure matchups, just like having McGehee and Brandon Crawford in the 7/8 spots prevents (or punishes) managers from leaving a LOOGY in for more than a batter.
This all assumes that Joe Panik can hit enough to be a #2 hitter, but a) he's rad, so shut up, and b) refer to a). Stop saying those things about batting average on balls in play, he's Bill Mueller, la la la la la la la.
Aoki brings more vroom
Pagan has attempted a steal in 20 percent of his games over the last three years, and Aoki is at 18 percent, so the former is statistically more of a threat to run, if slightly. That includes the fully healthy Pagan of 2012, though. In recent seasons, Aoki is a little more rabbity.
He gets caught a lot, so maybe he shouldn't be, but leadoff hitters are supposed to steal. I've been told. Maybe forget about this point if you want.
The argument for Pagan leading off:
He wants to
That's the only one I can come up with. He's comfortable there, and he's the incumbent. The twist is that this argument will almost certainly win.
From Dave Cameron of Fan Graphs:
At this price, this is probably going to go down as one of the better free agent signings of the winter. Aoki isn’t any kind of star, but he’s a perfectly acceptable corner outfielder. He doesn’t have a platoon split issue, so he can play everyday. He’s a good enough defender to not need to be subbed out for a late game replacement. And yet the Giants are basically paying him like a bench player.
Heyman notes that Aoki took less money to play for the Giants, so perhaps there’s some World Series discount in here, but this is still a huge bargain. In a market where worse players are signing for $20 million and costing their teams a first round pick, Aoki for $5 million is kind of amazing.
From Jeff Sullivan, also of Fan Graphs:
Yet there’s so much more to baseball than home runs. Sabean, at least, is betting on that being true. Dave already wrote some time back that Aoki compares very well to Nick Markakis, who signed with the Braves for $44 million. Aoki has signed for a minimum of $4.7 million and one year, and he’s signed for a maximum of $12.5 million and two years. Aoki apparently turned down a bigger offer or three because of San Francisco’s comfort and track record, but I think he’s been pretty clearly undervalued, which makes this a good get for a team whose success somehow always seems sneaky.
He’s very difficult to strike out. Every year, Aoki posts one of baseball’s highest contact rates. He doesn’t chase much, so Aoki can also work a walk. He’s shown absolutely no vulnerability against left-handed pitchers, so he doesn’t need to be platooned, and there might be no less shiftable hitter in the game. Aoki hits the ball anywhere and everywhere, provided you’re only looking within 350 feet of home plate. Though people remember some Aoki baserunning gaffes, he’s not a lousy baserunner. Though people remember some Aoki defensive gaffes, he’s not a lousy defender. As a matter of fact, by both DRS and UZR, he’s been above-average.
But while the 2015 Giants should miss a few dingers, they shouldn’t miss much overall run production. Aoki in particular is a non-star player, but the evidence suggests he’s a wonderful bargain.
No team in baseball is projected to be less powerful than the 2015 San Francisco Giants. They locked up that position by inking Nori Aoki to play regularly in the outfield. I can’t imagine it’s something they’re worried about.
From Neil Povio of Fansided:
We know that Aoki will be the Giants’ new starting left fielder, but he could also be the Giants’ new lead-off hitter. That statement might raise some eyebrows, but here are the facts: Aoki is less injury prone than Pagan. He has played an average of 146 games over the past three seasons compared to Pagan’s average of 107 games.
Aoki has finished in the top four in the Majors for fewest strike outs per at bats the last three seasons — 10.0 at bats per strikeout in 2014 — compared to Pagan’s 6.4 at bats per strikeout. Aoki’s career on base percentage (OBP) is .353, 19 points higher than Pagan’s .334 career OBP. And lastly, Aoki might be seen as more of a threat to steal bases than Pagan is now, especially after Pagan’s leg injuries over the last two seasons. Pagan has only averaged 18 stolen bases over the last three seasons compared to Aoki’s average of 22 stolen bases.
If there is any doubt about Aoki’s speed, here’s another impressive stat that should help prove has fast he is: 108 infield singles over the last three seasons, including 40 in 2014 (second most in the majors).
From Grant Brisbee of The McCovey Chronicles:
However, Aoki is a leadoff hitter. The Giants already had a leadoff hitter in Angel Pagan. There is conflict, and we're here to resolve it.
Aoki gets on base more often
It's close, don't get me wrong. Aoki has a .353 OBP over the last three years, and Pagan's at .338. Park effects gets Pagan closer, if not all the way there, but Aoki's OBP is propped up more by walks and HBP, which means I trust it slightly more.
These hairs won't split themselves, folks.
Pagan hits for more power
In theory. The Chris Farley in me wants to remind you of the year Pagan set a San Francisco record for triples and hit 38 doubles. Remember that? That was cool. Still, in theory, Pagan's bat would play better a little lower in the order, when he's not batting behind mostly non-Bumgarners.
Pagan is a switch-hitter
A switch-batter, at least. He hits lefties worse than righties over his career, though not as dramatically as last year's splits would indicate. Still, a switch-hitter between Hunter Pence and Casey McGehee would prevent opposing managers from playing pure matchups, just like having McGehee and Brandon Crawford in the 7/8 spots prevents (or punishes) managers from leaving a LOOGY in for more than a batter.
This all assumes that Joe Panik can hit enough to be a #2 hitter, but a) he's rad, so shut up, and b) refer to a). Stop saying those things about batting average on balls in play, he's Bill Mueller, la la la la la la la.
Aoki brings more vroom
Pagan has attempted a steal in 20 percent of his games over the last three years, and Aoki is at 18 percent, so the former is statistically more of a threat to run, if slightly. That includes the fully healthy Pagan of 2012, though. In recent seasons, Aoki is a little more rabbity.
He gets caught a lot, so maybe he shouldn't be, but leadoff hitters are supposed to steal. I've been told. Maybe forget about this point if you want.
The argument for Pagan leading off:
He wants to
That's the only one I can come up with. He's comfortable there, and he's the incumbent. The twist is that this argument will almost certainly win.
