Post by Rog on Dec 28, 2014 14:06:59 GMT -5
Mark -- Rog, RYAN DEMPSTER, not Rick Dempsey, once again. Boly, I've already elaborated on why I like the offseason, although it's not complete yet and will depend on what they do in LF with the money they saved on Pablo or Lester. If it's Zobrist or someone like Allan Craig, I will be very happy. They lost out on Pablo and Lester for non baseball reasons, and they were wise to not use that money to overpay the next free agent in line. I await their next move with excitement,,
Rog -- Sorry I didn't pick up on the Ryan Dempster/Rick Dempsey thing sooner. As for your overall position here, it seems quite realistic.
I think the primary difference between your/Boagie's/my position and that of El Dooderino and Boly is that their expectations are based on spending more than is in the budget. Assuming they acquire a good left fielder (Zobrist would DEFINITELY qualify), I think they will have done a nice job.
There are many different way to look at this, of course. But Fan Graphs shows the average value of the potential Giants quartet of $49 million per season over the past three years. (If McGehee had played in the majors instead of Japan in 2013, that might well have reached $50 million).
They show Pablo Sandoval as worth $13 million on average. Jon Lester at $23 million. Based on the Fan Graphs ratings, the Giants with Zobrist would have $13 million in better players at $30 million than they would have with Pablo and Lester at $45 million.
In other words, they might have acquired $13 million more in talent with $15 million fewer dollars.
Now, that's just one evaluation, although it is both respected and objective. It does show though that those who believe the Giants are having a poor off-season are probably wrong in their evaluation.
If an objective evaluation reflects that they are perhaps on the verge of doing exceptionally well, it's hard to argue that what they are doing is lousy. Much of this evaluation relies on trading for Zobrist, and the Giants will have given up two pitching prospects plus whatever it takes to acquire Zobrist (which should be significant but perhaps not substantial). But they may actually have done a very nice job when all is said and done.
Here is another advantage: If the Giants had somehow signed both Pablo AND Lester, they would have tied up at least a quarter of a million over the next five years (Sandoval) and six years (Lester).
If they wind up with Romo, Peavy, McGehee and Zobrist, they will have tied up only $50 million. In two years, the Giants quite possibly will move on from Romo and Peavy. A year from now they might wind up re-signing both McGehee and Zobrist or possibly neither. They likely won't have to tie up huge money to re-sign either player if that is the way it turns out.
So the Giants may have the following advantages over signing BOTH Sandoval and Lester:
. At least $200 million less committed dollars.
. $15 million less committed for the 2015 season, meaning the difference between meeting the budget and going $15 million over it.
. All four needs filled compared to just two (filled quite well) with Sandoval and Lester.
. Commitments of only one year for McGehee and Zobrist, which essentially winds up being a good pair for 2015 and a tryout for the future.
. Commitments of only two years for Romo and Peavy, who play the two top-rated positions in the Giants farm system.
Frankly, if the Giants acquire Zobrist, the more closely we view the situation, the better it looks. Saying the situation is as good as the analysis using Fan Graph's figures show it to be might be going too far in the positive direction. But saying the situation is as dire as some here depict it to be is likely also unrealistic.
In fact, at least one can make an objective argument for the former, while the latter arguments have thus far been subjective. I think most would say objective arguments tend to be more accurate than subjective ones.
Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2639/zobrist?page=1#ixzz3NDcTrlFk
Rog -- Sorry I didn't pick up on the Ryan Dempster/Rick Dempsey thing sooner. As for your overall position here, it seems quite realistic.
I think the primary difference between your/Boagie's/my position and that of El Dooderino and Boly is that their expectations are based on spending more than is in the budget. Assuming they acquire a good left fielder (Zobrist would DEFINITELY qualify), I think they will have done a nice job.
There are many different way to look at this, of course. But Fan Graphs shows the average value of the potential Giants quartet of $49 million per season over the past three years. (If McGehee had played in the majors instead of Japan in 2013, that might well have reached $50 million).
They show Pablo Sandoval as worth $13 million on average. Jon Lester at $23 million. Based on the Fan Graphs ratings, the Giants with Zobrist would have $13 million in better players at $30 million than they would have with Pablo and Lester at $45 million.
In other words, they might have acquired $13 million more in talent with $15 million fewer dollars.
Now, that's just one evaluation, although it is both respected and objective. It does show though that those who believe the Giants are having a poor off-season are probably wrong in their evaluation.
If an objective evaluation reflects that they are perhaps on the verge of doing exceptionally well, it's hard to argue that what they are doing is lousy. Much of this evaluation relies on trading for Zobrist, and the Giants will have given up two pitching prospects plus whatever it takes to acquire Zobrist (which should be significant but perhaps not substantial). But they may actually have done a very nice job when all is said and done.
Here is another advantage: If the Giants had somehow signed both Pablo AND Lester, they would have tied up at least a quarter of a million over the next five years (Sandoval) and six years (Lester).
If they wind up with Romo, Peavy, McGehee and Zobrist, they will have tied up only $50 million. In two years, the Giants quite possibly will move on from Romo and Peavy. A year from now they might wind up re-signing both McGehee and Zobrist or possibly neither. They likely won't have to tie up huge money to re-sign either player if that is the way it turns out.
So the Giants may have the following advantages over signing BOTH Sandoval and Lester:
. At least $200 million less committed dollars.
. $15 million less committed for the 2015 season, meaning the difference between meeting the budget and going $15 million over it.
. All four needs filled compared to just two (filled quite well) with Sandoval and Lester.
. Commitments of only one year for McGehee and Zobrist, which essentially winds up being a good pair for 2015 and a tryout for the future.
. Commitments of only two years for Romo and Peavy, who play the two top-rated positions in the Giants farm system.
Frankly, if the Giants acquire Zobrist, the more closely we view the situation, the better it looks. Saying the situation is as good as the analysis using Fan Graph's figures show it to be might be going too far in the positive direction. But saying the situation is as dire as some here depict it to be is likely also unrealistic.
In fact, at least one can make an objective argument for the former, while the latter arguments have thus far been subjective. I think most would say objective arguments tend to be more accurate than subjective ones.
Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2639/zobrist?page=1#ixzz3NDcTrlFk