Expendable Dollars

[klaiggeb]

This is from Zachary Rymer, MLB lead writer, and should, I believe, quell the talk of the Giants not having money... big money, available to spend.

"This could be a bluff. Or, it could be a reaction to Scherzer's sudden demand for a $200 million contract, as Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported. Tack on a lost draft pick after his rejection of his qualifying offer, and you're looking at quite the price tag.

If the Giants are just bluffing, great. If they're scared off by Scherzer's asking price, they shouldn't be. They're one of the few teams in the league that can afford it, and chances are he would be worth it."

And also: "Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Giants have escalated their payroll every year since 2008, and in a big way. In going from $76.6 million that year to $149.1 million in 2014, the club's payroll has risen by an average of $12 million every year.

Knowing this, a $160 million payroll in 2015 would seem possible, especially after winning the World Series. That's a lot of extra revenue, you know.

As of now, the Giants have about $130 million committed to 2015, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting another $12.8 million in arbitration payouts. But come this time next year, the departures of Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson alone will create $30 million in payroll space.

The point: Scherzer's hardly a financial no-go for the Giants. A $200 million contract over, say, seven years would cost $28.5 million a year, but the Giants could have him work for cheap in 2015 before the real payments begin."


Here's the link to the article.

bleacherreport.com/articles/2304628-max-scherzer-is-the-splash-san-francisco-giants-need-to-salvage-offseason?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=san-francisco-giants

boly

[klaiggeb]

And adding to what I said earlier about using "next year's money now," Note I forgot to add Hudson's contract being up.

Thus, I am not the only one thinking forward, and coming up with ideas to creatively make us better.

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- This is from Zachary Rymer, MLB lead writer, and should, I believe, quell the talk of the Giants not having money... big money, available to spend.

"This could be a bluff. Or, it could be a reaction to Scherzer's sudden demand for a $200 million contract, as Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reported. Tack on a lost draft pick after his rejection of his qualifying offer, and you're looking at quite the price tag.

If the Giants are just bluffing, great. If they're scared off by Scherzer's asking price, they shouldn't be. They're one of the few teams in the league that can afford it, and chances are he would be worth it."

And also: "Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Giants have escalated their payroll every year since 2008, and in a big way. In going from $76.6 million that year to $149.1 million in 2014, the club's payroll has risen by an average of $12 million every year.

Knowing this, a $160 million payroll in 2015 would seem possible, especially after winning the World Series. That's a lot of extra revenue, you know.

As of now, the Giants have about $130 million committed to 2015, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting another $12.8 million in arbitration payouts. But come this time next year, the departures of Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson alone will create $30 million in payroll space.

The point: Scherzer's hardly a financial no-go for the Giants. A $200 million contract over, say, seven years would cost $28.5 million a year, but the Giants could have him work for cheap in 2015 before the real payments begin."

Rog -- I'll give Rymer credit for having his numbers in order. We've been talking here about approximately $143.5 million going for contracts already in place and for the Giants' arbitration-eligible players. Rymer's $130 under contract plus %12.8 comes out at $142.8. That's BEFORE signing Romo and Peavy and trading for Casey McGehee.

His math gets a little less inclusive from there.

He says there is no reason the Giants can't have a payroll of $160 million. We've been talking here for a month that the number will likely fall between $170 and $175. Thank goodness. At $160 million the Giants would have had $17 million to replace Sandoval, Morse, Peavy and Romo. $17 million.

As we discussed here, they had around $30 million because the payroll will likely be in the low $170's, not the ridiculous $160 mentioned by Rymer.

Rymer thinks the Giants could back load a contract for Max Scherzer and afford him at 7/$200. He's probably right. By his numbers, the Giants had about $17 million to spend, so if they could indeed get Scherzer for 7/$200, they might be able to pull it off.

They could pay him $17 million this season, which would mean they would owe him only $188 million over the last six years of the contract, when he would be only 32 to 37 years old. Of course, that would have meant they had no money for third base, left field or the bullpen.

But if they really, really wanted to and Scherzer would take "only" $17 million in the first year, they could pull it off.

With the $30 million or so they had left to spend before their present signings and trade, they could indeed have pulled it off. But unless they did the ridiculous back loading mentioned above (leaving over $30 million per year for the six years of his contract likely to be less productive than the first), they would have indeed needed to go to the bargain basement to fill their other three needs.

As it is, they have Peavy, Romo, McGehee and close to $10 million left for left field.

I'm sure McGehee will be pooh-poohed here, but I remember when the Giants played the Marlins about halfway through the season, and despite only one home run, McGehee was on pace for close to 100 RBI's despite having only one home run. (I believe he hit his second in that series.). McGehee had 48 RBI's through the end of June before slowing down in the second half. He slowed down after that and finished with only 76 ribbies. Of course, that was three more than Pablo Sandoval, despite Pablo's 12 extra home runs.

Pablo drove himself in 16 times to McGehee's 4, but Casey actually drove home 72 of 481 runners, while Pablo plated 57 of 404. Casey was just as good at driving home runners as Pablo, but not nearly as good at driving in himself.

Pablo did pretty well, driving home 18 runnerss in 34 attempts with runners on third base and fewer than two outs. Casey was fabulous, plating 25 in 28 chances.

I don't think Casey is anywhere near as good at third base as Pablo was, but at the plate he's not way, way off. Casey's .712 OPS wasn't great, since he has limited power, but it wasn't too far off Pablo's .731. Casey's .355 OBP was far better than Pablo's .324.

Casey's not great, but for the small amount the Giants will have to pay him and the moderate amount they traded, he's a nice deal.

Remember, about $10 million left for left field. That should bring a decent player.



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[rxmeister]

That's if they spend it, Rog. Not sure at all what their plan is. They went cheap with Peavy then went even cheaper with McGehee. Not that they're bad players, but not exactly bold, go for it moves. Why expect a big move in LF?

[klaiggeb]

Since I knew from day one they were not going to go with my plan at 3B & LF & C, I'm okay with McGehee.

I think he's a solid but not great player, who will fit in quite nicely, AND... AND remember, you heard it here first, is EXACTLY the kind of guy coming off a couple of off years, like Aubrey Huff was, who could PONTENTIALLY have a huge rebound this year.

He's not going to have a 23 HR year like he did for Milwaukee, that's for sure, but he's okay, and he's not going to break the bank.

He's a decent risk.

boly

[Rog]

Mark -- That's if they spend it, Rog. Not sure at all what their plan is. They went cheap with Peavy then went even cheaper with McGehee. Not that they're bad players, but not exactly bold, go for it moves. Why expect a big move in LF?

Rog -- Your point about if they spend that remaining $10 million is a good one, Mark. But why would we NOT expect them to spend it?

A year ago they had less money left over for left field, and they spent $6 million for Mike Morse. That turned out to be excellent value. They didn't leave the hole. They filled it.

If I could make a good trade for a good left fielder, I would be all over it. The Giants didn't give up much for McGehee, and they will have him for about $3.5 million this season. Maybe they can also acquire a good left fielder without giving up a lot.

Otherwise, I would sign Nori Aoki. Nori would likely leave the Giants with enough money to then sign Chris Denorfia.

Let's look at the Giants' lineup with those moves (and remember, if they can make the right trade, they might be able to do even better):


Pagan -- When healthy, he has been a productive player for the Giants.

Panik -- Built to be a traditional #2 hitter.

Posey -- Gets on base and drives in runs (352 in 603 games).

Pence -- Has hit 20 or more home runs in seven straight seasons. Even though last season he batted second leadoff or second in 453 plate appearances, he has 277 RBI's over the past three seasons.

Brandon Belt -- Has been slowed by injury, but has shown a propensity to get on base (.344 OBP) and last season his 12 home runs in just 214 at bats.

Casey McGehee -- Despite a power outage after returning from serious injury, he drove in 76 runs last season. If his power returns, he might increase that by 10 or 15.

Brandon Crawford -- Had a slew of key hits last season, driving in 69 runs.

Nori Aoki -- Kind of a second leadoff man. Batting mostly leadoff in his three-season career, he has scored 224 bases and stolen 67 bases.

Rotation? A World Series MVP, a three-time All-Star, a former Cy Young Award winner, a four-time All-Star who will likely reach the Hall of Fame, and a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Is the rotation nearly as good as it sounds? Sadly, no. But it is experienced and has veterans who have shown they can win.

Bullpen? Check out these ERA's from last season: 1.70, 2.28, 2.58, 2.78, 3.11, 3.69 and 3.72, with a few young studs available and perhaps ready for this season.

Bench? Blanco and Denorfia provide a nice 4/5 lefty/righty combination with some hitting ability. Arias has been invaluable backing up all four infield positions. Adrianza (glove) or Duffy (bat)make a nice 2nd backup utility infielder. Ishikawa provides a little power off the bench and can play two positions.

That's not a horrible team. In fact, it's likely better than the one which won the World Championship this past season.

Less power, but with Panik and a healthy Pagan and Belt, likely more depth in the line up.

About as good defensively. Better speed.

Better rotation. Deeper bullpen.

Less power. That's about it. Every other area looks as if it could be at least as good and quite possibly improved.

I could go to war with that roster. It's likely better than they had last May, when they were still winning like crazy.

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[Rog]

Boly -- AND remember, you heard it here first, is EXACTLY the kind of guy coming off a couple of off years, like Aubrey Huff was, who could PONTENTIALLY have a huge rebound this year.

Rog -- I like the concept, but there are significant differences between Huff and McGehee when they joined/will join the Giants.

Huff was an every-other-year player. The Giants were fortunate enough to get him in an up year, and he became a key player before another down season and flat-out losing it after that.

McGehee had his rebound last season, coming back from an injury that caused him to miss the entire 2013 season. Except for a power outage, he was actually very good at the plate. Two stats kept his batting season from being clearly better than Pablo's.

He grounded into a league worst 31 double plays. That just can't continue if he is to help the Giants.

That .070 Isolated Power was Panik-like. In fact, except that he drove in 76 runs to Joe's partial-season 18, McGehee hit about like Panik did. Casey's line was .287/.355/.357/.712, while Joe's slash was .305/.344/.368/.711.

Joe's bat was considered a key to the Giants' success this past season. This year Casey will likely hit as well or better than Joe.

As an aside, again except for the RBI differential, Aoki's season at bat was also similar. Nori hit .285/.349/.360/.710. Slash-wise, exceptional similarities between the lines of Panik, McGehee and Aoki.

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[rxmeister]

Casey McGehee was actually the NL comeback player of the year for 2014. If that's a bad season, imagine the year he'll have this year!

[Rog]

Apparently the Marlins liked McGehee but felt they couldn't pass up the chance to acquire Martin Prado, which made Casey expendable. I too would rather have Prado, but this season he will cost about $7.5 million more than McGehee. If the Giants had traded for Prado, they'd have just about enough money to sign Chris Denorfia.

Instead, they may have about $10 million to spend on the outfield.

[Rog]

If the Giants had indeed had "only" $160 million to spend as the article indicated, they would already have overspent it by about $5 million. As we have talked about for a month or so, the Giants' budget is likely in the $170-$175 area. That would mean they still have money to spend.

[rxmeister]

The Yankees sent money with Prado, so he wasn't as pricy as his deal suggests. I believe they are sending three million each of the next two seasons in the trade. It's smart of Sabean though to see moves made that make good players expendable and then jump on them at reduced prices. He did it with McGehee and if the Phillies make that Wil Myers trade he can perhaps grab a Marlon Byrd or Dom Brown for LF.

[Rog]

Mark -- He did it with McGehee and if the Phillies make that Wil Myers trade he can perhaps grab a Marlon Byrd or Dom Brown for LF.

Rog -- Very good thinking, Mark. The right-handed bat of Byrd would seem the better fit, but I would love to have Domonic Brown

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