Justin Upton to Padres

[rxmeister]

In the last couple of days they've added Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton, while Brian Sabean does nothing to address his offensive needs. You have to give them credit for going for it though. On paper the Padres have become contenders in the NL west.

[klaiggeb]

Yes they have.

And the top 3 in their rotation trumps ours!

I think that kid Ross is going to be the next star in the NL.


I posted this last week, and I'll post it again, now.

The way Sabean and management have mishandled the off season TO THIS POINT, We are GOING to be looking up at the teams above us.

Right now, I see a .500 record, and 3rd place. And if we have any significant injuries, .500 might be a stretch.

boly

[rxmeister]

I know everyone hates stats, but I read a WAR projection that said that the Giants will still have a better lineup than the Padres if it can get just a decent third baseman and starts Blanco in LF. And the Padres haul comes with major question marks. Kemp's physical almost got the deal cancelled, Myers was awful last year and admitted he didn't work hard in the offseason, (which is why the Rays gave up a young cheap player) and their new third baseman hit .190 last year and is not even healthy right now. The only way I see the Giants as a non contender is if we have one of those post World Series hangovers, because the talent is still there.

[Rog]

Boly -- Right now, I see a .500 record, and 3rd place. And if we have any significant injuries, .500 might be a stretch.

Rog -- Let's suppose the season opened today.

The Giants' starting pitching should be improved. The bullpen should be better. Left field is better than it was in the post season. With the return of Angel Pagan, center field should be improved over the post season.

The losses have been Pablo Sandoval at third base (a big loss) and Michael Morse as pinch hitter/designated hitter. In determining whether the Giants are as good as last season, the question seems to be whether the return of Matt Cain to the rotation and the return of Angel Pagan to center field offset the loss of Pablo at third base and Mike on the bench.

I'd say it's pretty close, although admittedly that depends on how well Cain returns from injury. But why wouldn't he?

Although it seems like he's been around forever, he's just 30 years old. He's pitched extremely well WITH bone chips in his elbow for the majority of his career. Why WOULDN'T he return well?

So basically, the Giants are about as good as they were in the post season this past year (depending of course on Matt Cain's return). They haven't yet addressed the third base or left field positions and have about $10 million left to do so.

Why are we so shook up? Are we saying that the Giants were simply lucky to win the World Series in 2014 and that even with an improvement through the return of two of their top players they won't be good enough this year?

Let's take a look, position by position:

Starting pitching -- improved

Bullpen -- as deep as any in the league

Catcher -- Possibly an all-time great at the position

First base -- Brandon Belt showed a large increase in power last season and should be healthy most of the season

Second base -- Joe Panik will be there all year around

Shortstop -- Brandon Crawford has a breakout season in 2014

Third base -- Matt Duffy or Joaquin Arias is a big drop from Pablo Sandoval on each side of the ball

Left field -- The same guys are still there from the post season, and Gregor Blanco will be able to play left field instead of having to fill in in center

Center field -- The return of a healthy Pagan should mean improvement

Right field -- Hunter Pence is still there. He hit his fewest home runs in seven years, and his OPS was the 2nd lowest of his career. He was still pretty good.

Third base and left field aren't filled to satisfaction (by any means). But a full season from Matt Cain, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik and Angel Pagan should provide a nice boost to the team that won the World Series with Gregor Blanco, Travis Ishikawa and Juan Perez in two of the three outfield slots.

Hey, I hope the Giants will do more, even a lot more. But they're not too bad already. If they stay healthy, I see no reason why they couldn't finish over .500 with simply the players they have now.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2631/justin-upton-padres#ixzz3MNRXW72p

[klaiggeb]

Rog, we agree on a number of points, obviously.

At this point, I'm just playing "wait and see."

boly

[sfgdood]

Rx - The only way I see the Giants as a non contender is if we have one of those post World Series hangovers, because the talent is still there.

Dood - Wow. Blind optimism is still alive. I hope you are right, Rx, but please do not bet your house on it.

[klaiggeb]

Sorry, Mark, I think you usually hit the bullseye.

But I'm with Randy here. I LOVE your optimism... but this team just can't compete with SD and LA right now.

boly

[Rog]

I liked your wait-and-see approach, Boly, but then you went on to say that the Giants just can't compete with San Diego and LA right now.

Perhaps we should wait and see.

Here's the thing: Players' performances can vary considerably from year to year. Call it a hangover or whatever we want, the Giants have had a lot of good seasons in their World Championship years and a lot of bad and/or injured ones the season thereafter.

San Diego and LA have certainly been more ACTIVE than the Giants this winter. The Padres seem to have gotten a lot of major league talent without giving up the farm (or at least the very best of it). Who knows if the Dodgers are improved, but like the Padres, they're certainly DIFFERENT.

As for your feelings about Tyson Ross, he does seem to be coming into his own. He has become that nice combination of strikeout artist and ground ball pitcher. Could improve his control, but he's got a lot going for him.

His swinging strike percentage has amazingly doubled from his 6.3% in 2012 to his excellent 12.5% last season. That's extremely high for a ground ball pitcher. He is relying more on his slider than before, although his fastball still clocks in at 93.2 mph.

Ross, 27, pitched at both Bishop O'Dowd in Oakland and at Cal.

[Rog]

Dood - Wow. Blind optimism is still alive.

Rog -- Why is it that Mark's optimism is blind? To me, he seems to acquire facts and look at them pretty objectively. Frankly, I think we can all learn from Mark's insight and (especially me) brevity.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2631/justin-upton-padres?page=1#ixzz3MSIsnQET

[Islandboagie]

Boly- But I'm with Randy here. I LOVE your optimism... but this team just can't compete with SD and LA right now.

Boagie- San Diego has made some trades to beef up the middle of their lineup, which has helped their chances in 2015. But Upton and Kemp aren't scary. The rest of the Padres lineup is not good. They have a good bullpen, but I wouldn't trade Bumgarner for their entire rotation. All they have are #3 and #4 starters.

The Dodgers will compete, but I don't know if they're really better than they were last season.

[sfgdood]

Boagie- San Diego has made some trades to beef up the middle of their lineup, which has helped their chances in 2015. But Upton and Kemp aren't scary.

Dood - Upton and Kemp are a lot more scary than Belt and McGehee. Even Posey in the postseason didn't strike much fear in opponents except by reputation.




The rest of the Padres lineup is not good.

Dood - but still as good as Blanco, Crawford and whoever has to fill in when Angel hurts his back again.




They have a good bullpen, but I wouldn't trade Bumgarner for their entire rotation. All they have are #3 and #4 starters.

Dood - I'd consider that, especially if Lincecum craps out again. I'm not all that confident in the aging lame duck Hudson, who really does not have all that much to play for this year. If he wasn't under contract he might be beginning his retirement now. Peavy is fiery and seems to love the competition but how much is really left in the tank? His first 4 months last season left a bunch to be desired. Basically it has the possibility of being a good rotation, but if they had added a Lester or Scherzer or Shields, it would have been a GREAT one, able to compete for the division. As it is, we will be lucky to get a wild card spot.

The Dodgers will compete, but I don't know if they're really better than they were last season.

Dood - last year the Dogs won the division. So basically they didn't have to get much better if they had kept the same roster. But at least when they had openings to fill they didn't wait to scrape off the bargain basement to fill them. Even as division winners they were pro-active. The Giants...not so much.

[Rog]

Boagie -- I wouldn't trade Bumgarner for their entire rotation.

Rog -- You could be right here, but Tyson Ross is pretty good. Take a close look at the rest of the rotation, and I think you may feel differently. If I were the Padres, I don't think I would trade rotations with the Giants. Part of that is money, but some is performance/promise.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2631/justin-upton-padres#ixzz3MTM0fxHO

[Rog]

Dood - Upton and Kemp are a lot more scary than Belt and McGehee.

Rog -- Just a thought here. If I were the Padres and were paying Kemp and Upton over $30 million per season (some of it being paid by the Dodgers), I would hope they were more fearsome than a duo that was making less than $10 million combined.

A better comparison salary-wise and pecking order-wise would be Posey and Pence. I would choose them over Kemp and Upton, and I really like Kemp.

There is no question the Padres have improved a LOT. I'm not saying you're overrating Upton and Kemp. I'm simply saying you're comparing them to the wrong guys.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2631/justin-upton-padres?page=1#ixzz3MTNid17I

[Islandboagie]

Dood - Upton and Kemp are a lot more scary than Belt and McGehee. Even Posey in the postseason didn't strike much fear in opponents except by reputation.

Boagie- I'd take Posey and Pence over Upton and Kemp any day. Plus San Diego has no table setters. Their top two batted about .240 each. I'd take an injury prone Pagan or Blanco and Panik over those two.

[Rog]

I think something must be bothering Randy these days. The bottom line seems to be that Randy doesn't think the Giants are spending enough money, so nothing they do within their budget seems likely to please him.

Has Randy told us what HE would do with $30 million? I don't recall it. So no matter how hard he complains, his actions (or non-action) seem to imply that he has no better answers than they do.

[sfgdood]

Dood - Upton and Kemp are a lot more scary than Belt and McGehee. Even Posey in the postseason didn't strike much fear in opponents except by reputation.

Boagie- I'd take Posey and Pence over Upton and Kemp any day.

Dood - I would too...but something not many people are talking about this offseason is the fact that both Juan Perez and Gregor Blanco had more extra base hits than Posey during the entire postseason. In fact, I can't remember a whole lot of smash hits by Buster in October...most of his hits were loopers, bloops and 22 hoppers. Is it something we should be worried bout? I wouldn't be too worried if Sabean had been more serious about improving the lineup. Instead we have Casey McGehee...oh joy of joys.

[sfgdood]

Whether you believe Upton and Kemp are worth much, whether you are imparting wishful thinking about them or whether you simply are wanting to be blindly optimistic about the meager moves by Sabean. The bottom line is the Padres might have been the best team in the division the second half of the season and now their lineup is clearly better. Any way you want to slice it, they are better. The Dodgers might not be much better as they lost people too...but there is no question that all teams in the division did a better job of addressing their needs than the Giants.

[Islandboagie]

All of what you say is accurate, Randy. But you are still missing the point that Upton and Kemp are players that their teams decided to discard because they felt they'd have a better chance of winning now or in the future without them.

Upton and Kemp are good players, but they're not the type of players to lead a team. They aren't going to inject a winning attitude into the Padres. And while talented, they're two players who were expected to be much more than they've shown. Upton and Kemp would have been a very good addition to a team that already wins. On the Padres? Not so worried.

[rxmeister]

I'm predicting right now that the Padres will be a spectacular disaster and they will be a shining example of what happens when a bad team decides to go for it overnight instead of building it up piece by piece over a several year period like the Giants did. First of all, they have assembled a lineup of power in a ballpark where you win with pitching and defense. They assembled the team via trade instead of free agency, which always begs the question, "why was the previous team willing to get rid of the player they gave you?" In the case of Justin Upton, it could have merely been the team unloading a player and rebuilding, but let's not lose sight of the fact that Upton hit .270 and struck out 171 times. To compare him to a professional hitter like Buster Posey is ridiculous. He's becoming more like a Dave Kingman every year. He would have been a nice piece to the Giants, but to the Padres he's supposed to be their big gun. Wil Myers is a young stud who had a terrible year last year, hitting .223 with 6 homeruns. Why would a team with no money who always trades their players when they become too expensive be looking to move someone making no money with years of control over his contract? Answer. Bad attitude and a lack of conditioning that even he admits to. Now Matt Kemp. Not only did the Dodgers unload him, they ate 31 million of his contract and traded him within their own division! Why? He practically failed the physical because of not one, but two arthritic hips. The Padres threatened to cancel the deal, but they're so gung ho about going for it that they're crossing their fingers and hoping it works. Now imagine these three lumbering around the huge outfield at Petco, the huge OF at Coors, the huge OF at AT&T. They'll be better than the Giants? LOL!!

[sfgdood]

wow that's a lot of assumption and guesswork. We shall see

[Rog]

Randy -- Instead we have Casey McGehee...oh joy of joys.

Rog -- Now, the Marlins didn't have the strongest of lineups by any means, but in 80% of his plate appearances, Casey batted clean up.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2631/justin-upton-padres#ixzz3MaKUoyUc

[Rog]

In 78% of his career plate appearances, McGehee has batted third, fourth or fifth.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2631/justin-upton-padres#ixzz3MaKUoyUc

[Rog]

Randy -- wow that's a lot of assumption and guesswork.

Rog -- Pot, meet kettle.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2631/justin-upton-padres?page=1#ixzz3MaMSSjMK