Giants re-sign Jake Peavy

[rxmeister]

So after all the big free agent pitcher talk, the Giants are just bringing back their own again, signing Jake Peavy to a 2/24 deal. The deal gives him a four million signing bonus, then pays him seven and 13 million over the next two years. He also has a no trade clause. The good news is that the low first year total still means they have plenty to spend on a hitter to replace Pablo. The bad news is that there's a possibility that they're just being cheap!

[klaiggeb]

I actually like bringing back Peavy... but ONLY if he's going to be the number 4 or 5 guy in the rotation.

If signing Peavy means we are NOT going to get a top flight starter, then you're right, Mark; this is just being cheap.

I would also like to add being:

1-Foolish
2-Fool hardy
3-Delusional (meaning, they're deluding themselves if they think they can win with our starting staff.
4-An insult to EVERY Giant fan

boly

[Rog]

Mark -- The bad news is that there's a possibility that they're just being cheap!

Rog -- I don't think so. They've spent $21.5 million per season, and they have about $10 million more. If they spend only $4 or $5 million of that to fill third base and left field, they will indeed have gone cheap. But since they'll almost certainly spend most if not all of the $10 million or so, they certainly won't have gone cheap.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2630/giants-re-sign-jake-peavy#ixzz3MMmDWgRP

[Rog]

Boly -- If signing Peavy means we are NOT going to get a top flight starter, then you're right, Mark; this is just being cheap.

I would also like to add being:

1-Foolish
2-Fool hardy
3-Delusional (meaning, they're deluding themselves if they think they can win with our starting staff.
4-An insult to EVERY Giant fan

Rog -- Are we being delusional here? How are the Giants going to sign a top pitcher when they have only $10 million or so to spend, and with third base and left field still to be filled?

Yeah, it would be great if the Giants blew up their budget and went out and spent $20+ million on James Shields, but that would put them about $10 million over budget -- still with third base and left field not being addressed.

So now, let's REALLY get greedy. Let's have them spend a combined $15-$20 million to fill those two positions. Do you know what the Giants' payroll would then be?

It would be $200 million! The Giants would likely be outspending 28 of the other 29 teams -- and wouldn't be all that far from what the Dodgers will be paying the players who will actually be playing for them.

People here say the Giants have plenty of money. My guess is that those people aren't CFO's of their companies. It's easy to THINK the Giants have tons of money.

Heck, they're sold out every night. Ticket prices require taking out a mortgage. Eating concessions means a second mortgage. They sell tons of Posey/Lincecum/Pence/Bumgarner jerseys (although the Panda hats are on clearance). Why WOULDN'T they have tons of money?

Here is what THEIR CFO would tell us:

First of all, the Giants are one of the very few (only?) teams who are paying for their own stadium. It's a true jewel and certainly aided attendance when the Giants were pretty bad from 2005 through 2008. But it cost a lot, and the Giants are still paying for it.

Second, they are not only paying for it, they're PRE-paying. That adds plenty MORE expense, although it also comes with a silver lining.

It is said the Giants will pay off the stadium in 2017. Sergio Romo, Angel Pagan and Jake Peavy will need to be paid again or replaced. Matt Cain will be aging, and each will be nearing the end of his contract. The Giants will be paying or replacing the guys they still sign to play third base and left field. The two Brandons will be on the verge of becoming free agents. Maybe by having the stadium paid off, they will expand their payroll to remain competitive even with their aging stars.

So #2 is a short-term hindrance, but it might be a long-term blessing.

Third, and this is one that is going to hurt for a long time, the Giants don't have the $8 billion -- with a B -- TV contract the Dodgers have. They don't have huge TV contracts such as the Padres and Angels have that has allowed those teams to spend like crazy.

In fact, I'm guessing this season the Giants will outspend ALL (or at least all but a very few) of the teams who don't have the big TV contracts.

Gosh, maybe they even had the foresight to pay their stadium off early so they wouldn't get left behind by the huge TV contracts other teams are signing. The Giants are getting a LITTLE of the TV action. Although they're not being paid well, they ARE being paid for TV and radio. And they do have a piece of the ownership of Comcast Sports Net.

Maybe someday the Giants will also come up with a huge TV contract. Having the stadium paid off, they might then be able financially to spend with the big boys. No, they probably can't command the huge TV contracts the teams in New York, Chicago and Los Angeles do, but they should be right up there with all the others.

So, guys, if we want to look at why the Giants are actually being pretty darn liberal in their spending despite being "only" about the 6th or 7th in spending, we can look at paying off the stadium and not having a huge TV contract as some of the other teams have.

It's that complex, and it's that simple. If the Giants still do something like sign James Shields or the Korean infielder or the 19-year-old Cuban sensation Moncada, we should leap out of our shoes.

And go down and buy a DOZEN of those Panda hats on clearance!


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2630/giants-re-sign-jake-peavy?page=1#ixzz3MMmuBxOn

[Rog]

Hey, it's not perfect, but the Giants have future Hall of Famers, All-Stars and Cy Young Award winners throughout their rotation.

[klaiggeb]

Rog, your comments implies 2 things:

1, you haven't read the plan I outlined concerning how I would pay for what I have proposed, and #2, that you think what I posted was totally based in the world of "Fantasy Baseball."

I assure you, it was not. Please give me more credit than that.

My post was based upon what the Giants have said: "We want to be competitive each year."

Thus, my plan was:

1-Pablo is off the books, and they were willing to pay him 95 Million

2-Vogey, Peavy and Romo came off the books. We've since signed Romo and Peavy, and that leaves just Vogey's money

3-I MOVE Lincecum NOW. That takes his money off the books

4-At the end of next season, the millions owed to Scutaro come off the books, as well as other players I'm not aware of.

5-I do NOT sign a bat. I don't. I sign pitching. THAT is where I put my money.

6-I plan ahead. I THINK ahead, and I realize that we HAVE to make some significant moves, and that I MUST use the millions owed to Marco NOW. IF not, 3rd place is the BEST we can hope for.

And IF I DON'T make that decision, failure to be aggressive NOW, makes me a LIAR and a HYPOCRITE based upon what I, as the GM, have PROMISED my fan base.

I don't know where you came up with the "we only have 10 million or so to spend," number, because I haven't seen that anywhere. And if THAT is why management is trying to sell to the fans... they can go pound sand, but that, I contend, is a bold faced lie.



MY plan frees up 25 million plus.

So, in round figures;

(A)-IF we were going to pay Pablo 95 million, and I've freed up a MINIMUM of 25 Million more, we (B)HAVE THE MONEY to pay a top flight starter, such as Shields.

My comment and all of my off season comments have been the same; NO pitching, NO pennant, and NO chance to win a World Series.

For me, it's that simple, and that complicated.

You may see it differently, and that's fine.

But as a REALISTIC Giant fan, I have every right to EXPECT better than what Sabean and management have done; which is nothing.


The season isn't even here, and with SD now having an outfield of KEMP, MYERS, and UPTON, a better top 3 in the rotation than we do, I simply don't see much hope for the 2015 season.

I don't.

Thus, management is, IMHO, delusional, fool hardy, and down right NUTS, to think that they've "solidified" the rotation by signing Peavy.

We could get what HE will give us from Petite and saved the money.

boly

[donk33]

Dec 19, 2014 13:04:00 GMT -5 Rog said:

Boly -- If signing Peavy means we are NOT going to get a top flight starter, then you're right, Mark; this is just being cheap.

I would also like to add being:

1-Foolish
2-Fool hardy
3-Delusional (meaning, they're deluding themselves if they think they can win with our starting staff.
4-An insult to EVERY Giant fan

Rog -- Are we being delusional here? How are the Giants going to sign a top pitcher when they have only $10 million or so to spend, and with third base and left field still to be filled?

Yeah, it would be great if the Giants blew up their budget and went out and spent $20+ million on James Shields, but that would put them about $10 million over budget -- still with third base and left field not being addressed.

So now, let's REALLY get greedy. Let's have them spend a combined $15-$20 million to fill those two positions. Do you know what the Giants' payroll would then be?

It would be $200 million! The Giants would likely be outspending 28 of the other 29 teams -- and wouldn't be all that far from what the Dodgers will be paying the players who will actually be playing for them.

People here say the Giants have plenty of money. My guess is that those people aren't CFO's of their companies. It's easy to THINK the Giants have tons of money.

Heck, they're sold out every night. Ticket prices require taking out a mortgage. Eating concessions means a second mortgage. They sell tons of Posey/Lincecum/Pence/Bumgarner jerseys (although the Panda hats are on clearance). Why WOULDN'T they have tons of money?

Here is what THEIR CFO would tell us:

First of all, the Giants are one of the very few (only?) teams who are paying for their own stadium. It's a true jewel and certainly aided attendance when the Giants were pretty bad from 2005 through 2008. But it cost a lot, and the Giants are still paying for it.

Second, they are not only paying for it, they're PRE-paying. That adds plenty MORE expense, although it also comes with a silver lining. dk...er, the Dodgers own their own stadium....anyway, the teams that rent their stadiums are pouring money down the drain...and it is probably as much as a normal mortgage ...the Giants are building up equity on their mortgage payments...and their tax credits are different than the "renters"...a CFO should know that.... 

It is said the Giants will pay off the stadium in 2017. Sergio Romo, Angel Pagan and Jake Peavy will need to be paid again or replaced. Matt Cain will be aging, and each will be nearing the end of his contract. The Giants will be paying or replacing the guys they still sign to play third base and left field. The two Brandons will be on the verge of becoming free agents. Maybe by having the stadium paid off, they will expand their payroll to remain competitive even with their aging stars.dk..if the Giants spend their money wisely (ie. give Sabean some help with the draft -and erasing their bad reputation in the Latino pool) then they wouldn't have all those big holes to fill that forces them to go into the big money free agent field...

 
In fact, I'm guessing this season the Giants will outspend ALL (or at least all but a very few) of the teams who don't have the big TV contracts.dk...all the teams have big money TV contracts...the national TV telecasts are paying big money to "Baseball"....the local TV deals are extra...more and more games are being televised on the national networks...and, you can't really tell the available TV areas open to other teams versus the Giants...many of the teams are restricted to the area close to their cities...the Giants have very little National League competition in the entire North West of the country (as long as Arizona and Color. are so poorly run) ....the Giants hide a lot of their income in how they break their assets in a multiple corporation network....I don't think the Giants lack the money to develop a winner...3 rings  in 5 years.....Sabean...and I always said that with the ball park they call home, pitching, fielding and speed is the winning recipe....it's the sluggers that get the big money and the "shakes" when they think of playing in the phone booth....the ideal ball player "type" for the Giants is Hunter Pence....only with a little more pleasing mechanics....some power...good foot speed and all out effort....

 
 
 
 

[sfgdood]

This just reinforces the 2014 offseason commitment to mediocrity. The rotation just doesn't inspire confidence. Without Lincecum making a return to CY Timmy--not a solid bet by any stretch--the Giants chances of making the playoffs, much less go far in them, looks very grim indeed, especially with two Giant holes in the order with no quality players available to fill them. It's almost like Sabean does not want another title or another contract.

[rxmeister]

Rog, I know you're an accountant, but you still make me laugh counting every dollar they spend towards that 30 million dollars you think they are only willing to spend. Teams are blowing up their budgets all over the place these days and I'm sure the Giants will too if the opportunity presents, especially with all the moves the Dodgers and suddenly rich Padres are making. And Boly, you really think the Giants can move Lincecum and his 18 million to another team? No way in hell! But the good news Boly, is that Bobby Evans was on KNBR again today, and he said the Giants are still in the market for a top starter, the Peavy signing changes nothing. I think the best reaction to all this hitting the other west teams are importing is a rotation solid from one to five.

[klaiggeb]

Mark--. And Boly, you really think the Giants can move Lincecum and his 18 million to another team? No way in hell! But the good news Boly, is that Bobby Evans was on KNBR again today, and he said the Giants are still in the market for a top starter, the Peavy signing changes nothing. I think the best reaction to all this hitting the other west teams are importing is a rotation solid from one to five.


---boly says---Mark, not only do I think it's major league do-able, I'd actually be willing to do something I never, EVER do; bet money that some team(s) would jump on it in a NY minute.

Why? For all the reasons that you and Randy have pointed out; Everyone not named boly expects Tim to be lights out every time out.

Teams would view Lincecum, and be more than willing to front the dough for a couple of reasons:

1-Fannies in seats

2-Parphanalia sales

3-Thinking/believing they can 'fix' him.


What I got from Evans interview was what he said about Tim: "Tim's in the rotation for now."

I'm not holding my breath for any solid moves. We're off for a Christmas cruise, and I'm hoping that by the time I get back we've done something solid.

boly

[rxmeister]

Nobody's buying Lincecum paraphernalia or paying to see him pitch if he's terrible. Nobody's paying him 18 million dollars a year after the year he had. Tell me the name of the GM who is willing to add 18 million to his team's payroll and then get the owner to sign off on it. I'd like to hear the response when the GM says they'll buy his jersey.

[klaiggeb]

Mark, you disagree.

That's okay.

I still contend that he'd be in moderate demand, and that we could move him.

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- Thus, my plan was:

1-Pablo is off the books, and they were willing to pay him 95 Million

2-Vogey, Peavy and Romo came off the books. We've since signed Romo and Peavy, and that leaves just Vogey's money

3-I MOVE Lincecum NOW. That takes his money off the books

4-At the end of next season, the millions owed to Scutaro come off the books, as well as other players I'm not aware of.

5-I do NOT sign a bat. I don't. I sign pitching. THAT is where I put my money.

6-I plan ahead. I THINK ahead, and I realize that we HAVE to make some significant moves, and that I MUST use the millions owed to Marco NOW. IF not, 3rd place is the BEST we can hope for.

Rog -- What I meant by a plan was more specifics. You have taken some strong positions here, and that is good, whether we agree with them or not.

Let me look at your points quickly:

1. Pablo is off the books. My response: He certainly is.

2. Vogey, Romo and Peavy came off the books. My response: Morse too, and as you mentioned, Pablo.

3. You move Lincecum now, taking his money off the books. My response: He's making $18 million, so the Giants would likely have to pick up at least $6 million. That would indeed free up as much as $12 million tough, if the Giants could pull it off. $12 million buys a team a Jake Peavy.

4. The money for Scutaro comes off the books at the end of the season. My response: Also Lincecum, Hudson and I believe Affeldt.

5. You don't sign a bat; you sign pitching. My response: I understand your position there. That would likely mean Shields, whom the Giants say they haven't given up on yet, but reading between the lines, I thought it sounded quite unlikely.

6. You would basically spend some of next year's money, as well as save $10-$12 million by trading Lincecum. My response: The Giants are highly unlikely to use next year's money, although I think it is possible, although unlikely, that they will create extra money to sign Moncada, whom Bobby Evans described as a potential impact player.

I liked your earlier idea of moving Buster to third, but the Giants are convinced that he is extremely smart behind the plate and don't want to lose that.

Here is the problem I think we face. You asked about the "magical" number of $30 million to spend. In a special situation (such as Moncada) I think the Giants would deviate from that. They might have done so if they had been able to sign Lester or Shields. But the $30 million is realistic.

To get there, I added $20 million to last year's payroll, which would put them at about $173 million. I estimated that between their salary commitments and the amount of money they would likely pay to their free agents, they already have a $143 million commitment. That was later confirmed in something I read.

That is how I came up with the $30 million to spend. I think it's pretty close. So I think they still have close to $10 million left to spend.

I figured there was no point in trying to determine what the Giants should do unless I knew about how much money they had to do it with.

We knew the Giants' primary needs were a third baseman, a left fielder and a starting pitcher. Their secondary needs were a relief pitcher to replace Sergio Romo and a right-handed outfield bat to complement Gregor Blanco. With about $10 million left, they have met all those needs except for a left fielder and a fifth outfielder.

We could wish for a top pitcher and to re-sign Pablo, but the money wasn't there to do it, so it was merely a dream.

Now, if the Giants could add another $10 million or so by trading Tim Lincecum, they would have had about $40 million to spend -- but then they would have needed TWO starters, a third baseman, a left fielder, a reliever and a 5th outfielder.

Maybe they could have acquired say Jason Hammel, Melky Cabrera and Casey McGehee plus kept Peavy and Romo as they have. They would still have about enough left over to acquire Chris Denorfia as their fifth outfielder.

This assumes they could trade Lincecum without picking up too much of his salary, of course. Essentially they would have Melky and Denorfia instead of the $10 million or so left over, and they would have Hammel instead of Lincecum.

Would that be better than their present situation? In great part it depends on how/if Lincecum rebounds. You don't think he will, and if that comes true, I like your direction better. Although I'm hoping Tim will rebound and he should be just finishing week #4 of his training with his dad, I would be happy with the direction you suggested.

You may have had different details, but with the lack of added clarification, that was about the best I could come up with. Maybe Santana instead of Peavy and just let Juan Perez be the 5th outfielder. Pagan's injury history worries me about that approach though.

But then, I think more highly of Gregor Blanco than you do, so I would think you would be even more worried about it.

Your idea of trading Lincecum may be realistic. It just depends on how much salary the Giants would have to eat. And of course, it depends on the guys I mentioned signing with the Giants for roughly the same amount they signed for elsewhere.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2630/giants-re-sign-jake-peavy#ixzz3MSJqw8pb

[Rog]

Boly -- Everyone not named boly expects Tim to be lights out every time out.

Rog -- More hyper-boly?

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2630/giants-re-sign-jake-peavy?page=1#ixzz3MSfuVxRw

[klaiggeb]

Boly -- Everyone not named boly expects Tim to be lights out every time out.

Rog -- More hyper-boly?

---boly says---

Absolutely not, Rog. Just me being honest.

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- Everyone not named boly expects Tim to be lights out every time out.

Rog -- More hyper-boly?

---boly says---

Absolutely not, Rog. Just me being honest.

Rog -- We know your feelings regarding Tim, Boly, and certainly he has done little the past three seasons to disprove them. But you didn't truly mean (my caps for emphasis), "EVERYONE not named Boly expects Tim to be LIGHTS OUT EVERY TIME OUT."

I don't think that is actually what you meant, which is why I mentioned hyperbole, which I -- trying to be clever but as usual not succeeding -- called "hyper-Boly."

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2630/giants-re-sign-jake-peavy#ixzz3ND9OZDdM

[klaiggeb]

Rog -- We know your feelings regarding Tim, Boly, and certainly he has done little the past three seasons to disprove them. But you didn't truly mean (my caps for emphasis), "EVERYONE not named Boly expects Tim to be LIGHTS OUT EVERY TIME OUT."

I don't think that is actually what you meant, which is why I mentioned hyperbole, which I -- trying to be clever but as usual not succeeding -- called "hyper-Boly."

---boly says---

Ah! Now I get it!

I don't know how to change colors, nor how to BOLD parts of my posts, and thus I use capitals; which I hate to do.

But all I was trying to do was emphasize that most on the board think, thought, or continue to think Tim will magically turn it around.

Obviously, I don't.

boly

[Rog]

El Dooderino -- It's almost like Sabean does not want another title or another contract.

Rog -- Yep, that's it alright.



Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2630/giants-re-sign-jake-peavy#ixzz3NJJ4K1Kw

[Rog]

Boly -- continue to think Tim will magically turn it around.

Rog -- I think it's more like hoping it will happen, and thinking that to some degree it's possible. Tim is important, but I find it very encouraging that Yusmeiro Petit held right-handed batters to the lowest average any NL pitcher last season. I believe there is a reasonable chance that one of the two will pitch at least well enough for a fifth starter.

Yusmeiro had a 1.02 WHIP 10.2 K/9 and a K/BB ratio of 6.05. He has been bitten in the past by the gopher ball, but he was right about league average there. Petit actually pitched far better than his ERA shows.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2630/giants-re-sign-jake-peavy?page=1#ixzz3NJJbtPf2

[klaiggeb]

I was impressed with Petite, too, Rog. My ONLY problem was that "when" he knew he was going to make a start, he didn't 'seem' to be as sharp as when he didn't.

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- I was impressed with Petite, too, Rog. My ONLY problem was that "when" he knew he was going to make a start, he didn't 'seem' to be as sharp as when he didn't.

Rog -- That is a good point, one that Mark made too. But I thought he kind of put that to rest after he replaced Tim Lincecum in the rotation. He gave up too many home runs (1.2 per nine), but his hit rate was 7.9, his walk rate just 1.2, and his strikeout rate a fabulous 11.3.

In three of those four areas, he was very good to outstanding. His WHIP was 1.01, which is also excellent. The home runs weren't good (although some great pitchers have been higher, even over the course of a full season), while the rest of his pitching was at a Hall of Fame level.

Of course Petit isn't going to be a Hall of Famer. But he could be an excellent fifth starter. No one in the National League -- NO ONE -- got right-handed batters out better than he did. How many fifth starters do you know in history who could ever make that claim?

I can't imagine there have been many, if any.

If I told you that a fifth starter was going to get right-handed batters out better than any pitcher in the league, you would say sign me up for him, right? That sounds a lot more like an ace.

We're unlikely to see Tim as an ace again. We're not going to see Yusmeiro in that role either. But both seem to have a potential few fifth starters have.

I still can't get over Petit's getting right-handed batters out better than any pitcher in the league. As great as Kershaw was, I would have thought it would be he. And it darn near was. Yusmeiro limited righties to a .193 average, just four points ahead of the southpaw Kershaw.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2630/giants-re-sign-jake-peavy#ixzz3NLabHpyP