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Post by rxmeister on Dec 7, 2014 8:41:05 GMT -5
Being that the last Headley thread is getting very long, I thought I'd start a new one. Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday that the Giants are aggressively trying to sign Headley, but Buster Olney is saying that not only are they not the team with the 4/65 offer, they aren't willing to go that high for him. Unless they change their mind on this or Headley doesn't go to the highest bidder, he's headed elsewhere. And don't forget, the winter meetings start tomorrow. Exciting times for rumors, along with free agency decisions looming. It's beloved Jon Lester will make his decision in the next couple of days.
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2014 14:08:21 GMT -5
If the Giants don't sign Headley, I wonder if they're go the trade route. There is quite a drop off in the free agent market after Headley.
I would be interested in what the scouts say about Alberto Callaspo. Alberto was a nice little player until he was lousy last season. Maybe he's a comeback candidate, and I believe he could be acquired at a low price and term. Callaspo is just 31 years old, so he shouldn't be through.
Once Chase Headley signs though, Callaspo will likely be the one who jumps to the head of the pack, which may drive his value up as well. If the Giants like Alberto and feel they are losing out on Headley, it might be good to make a pre-emptive strike with Alberto.
Or perhaps, as Boly suggested, they should simply stay inside the organization. But Matt Duffy is unproven, has played very little third base, and has far less pop than one would like from a corner infielder, and Joaquin Arias makes too many outs.
Headley is overpriced (aren't all the free agents this off-season?) and he has definite questions. But the drop off behind him is very sharp.
If the Giants look elsewhere to replace the bats of Sandoval and Morse, Melky Cabrera is probably the best. But aside from the steroid and resulting chemistry issues, Melky doesn't have a lot of power. His defense isn't as good as it appeared when he was with the Giants.
Duffy and Cabrera should be at least the equal of Pablo and Michael defensively, but are they even close at the plate? At the very least, the power drop would be substantial -- on a team who already has a power weakness.
Could Jon Lester make up for the loss of Pablo and Morse? Possibly. But can he also make up for the loss of Romo, Peavy and Vogelsong?
There are indications the Giants are willing to loosen the purse strings if they can acquire the right players. Goodness knows they may need to do so.
Lester and Cabrera would cost about $10 million more than I expected the Giants to spend. Even then, would they make up for the loss of all five Giants free agents?
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 7, 2014 14:57:07 GMT -5
Melky Cabrera is close to signing with the Mariners from everything I've read. I've heard some interest in trading for Justin Upton, but they don't have the major league ready talent to get that done. They might try to get a third team involved however. In other news, Andrew Baggarly quit CSN. He said he will continue to independently report on the Giants and is writing a book on the 2014 championship season.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 7, 2014 14:57:08 GMT -5
If the Giants look elsewhere to replace the bats of Sandoval and Morse, Melky Cabrera is probably the best. But aside from the steroid and resulting chemistry issues, Melky doesn't have a lot of power. His defense isn't as good as it appeared when he was with the Giants.
Boagie- The best evidence I have about Melky's defense is my own eyewitness evidence. From what I saw he was a very smart fielder. He pulled up and played it safe on balls that were uncatchable, and he dove when they were. He hit cutoff men and never threw to the wrong base. As we saw, his range wasn't good enough to play center, but it was above average for a corner outfielder. What makes you say his defense isn't as good as it appeared when he was with the Giants?
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 7, 2014 18:50:37 GMT -5
Melky and the Giants could still be a fit, as the Mariners prefer to trade for an outfielder like Upton, and I guess it will all become clearer this week. The Yankees have supposedly renewed their interest in Headley, but they're supposedly in the 4/52 range. Since all the main teams involved in the Headley sweepstakes are denying that 4/65 offer, the speculation is that that offer was a nice fantasy concocted by the agent.
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2014 22:48:13 GMT -5
Boagie -- What makes you say his defense isn't as good as it appeared when he was with the Giants? Rog -- Very good question. Two reasons, actually. First, I think his defense probably WAS better when he was with the Giants than it is now. Second, I don't think his defense was actually as good then as it appeared to be to most. Melky is a very capable corner outfielder. But I don't think he's way above average, either. As for our best evidence of Melky's fielding being our own eyes, we're probably not the best judges if that is true. We don't see every play by every player on every team. There are experts who do. As much as I value my own evaluations of players' defense, I can't say mine is likely to be as good as someone who has a much broader spectrum with which to judge than I have. I know I'm considered here to be egotistical, but in reality, I rely on things other than my own judgment at least as much as anyone else here. When I find evidence that contradicts my own judgment, I study that evidence to see if my judgment couldn't be improved by it. Usually one of two things happens. Either I have done a poor job of interpreting the outside evidence, and it doesn't show what I think it shows. Or my judgment likely wasn't as accurate as I thought it was. Those aren't the only two possible results, but they are the most likely. Hey, when I'm wrong (for whatever reason), I'm wrong. After his 2012 season, which I thought was pretty decent defensively, he was ranked only tied for 12th among left fielders by the experts and a compilation of fans. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2612/latest-on-headley#ixzz3LH2Ttip5 |
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Post by Rog on Dec 7, 2014 22:48:52 GMT -5
If the alleged 4/$65 offer doesn't exist, that's good news for the Giants.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 7, 2014 23:18:28 GMT -5
Rog- First, I think his defense probably WAS better when he was with the Giants than it is now. Second, I don't think his defense was actually as good then as it appeared to be to most.
Boagie- I think that's a safe bet. Steroids these days can effect strength, agility, speed and reflexes. If he is not taking them now, it's likely he's lost a step or two.
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Post by rxmeister on Dec 7, 2014 23:53:14 GMT -5
Giants met with Jon Lester again tonight. Buster Posey was supposedly part of the meeting and was described as "very impressive." Maybe he can have the same effect on Lester that David Ortiz supposedly had on Pablo.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 8, 2014 0:13:14 GMT -5
Of course, I'm still curious what "evidence" you're using.
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Post by Rog on Dec 8, 2014 2:46:34 GMT -5
Boagie -- Of course, I'm still curious what "evidence" you're using. Rog -- I think you're referring to my comment that Melky Cabrera isn't as good a fielder as he appeared with the Giants. The primary source I have is the defensive ranking in Bill James' annual Handbook. It takes the opinions of more than a handful of experts and couples them with a fan survey. Those who take the time to respond to the survey are usually pretty well informed. I have also looked at Melky's defensive metrics posted by both Baseball-Reference and Fan Graphs. He has consistently been rated below average by both. He gets above-average marks for his arm, but is rated well below average range-wise. His fan ratings were best in his 2012 Giants season, but haven't been very good overall. Hey, Melky looked pretty good to me too. But I can come up with no compelling reason why he is as good as he appeared to me. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2612/latest-on-headley#ixzz3LI1YHoyf |
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