Post by Rog on Dec 3, 2014 11:57:16 GMT -5
Two key questions when it comes to evaluating players.
How importance is defense? How well can it be measured?
I ask this because of the difference in how Nick Markakis is perceived compared to Gregor Blanco.
Markakis will likely receive a contract worth over $50 million this winter. Blanco is projected as a $3.5 million arbitration player. What are their differences?
Markakis has a long track record of very good play. He has won two Gold Gloves in the past four seasons. In 2012 he had a very fine .298/.834 season. He's been a regular, while Blanco has been a fourth outfielder who played a lot due to injuries.
Let's take a look at each of these:
Markakis' career .290/.793 is highly impressive, but the past two seasons he has hit .274/.706. During those two seasons, Blanco has hit .263/.698. Blanco has hit for a bit more power and walked more often. Markakis has hit for the better average.
Markakis has won two Gold Gloves. That's pretty impressive for a corner outfielder. But defensive metrics show Blanco to be by far the better of the two. My guess is that despite Markakis' Gold Gloves, Gregor is indeed the better defensive player -- and he can play center field, whereas Markakis has made only one career start there.
Markakis' 2012 season was very fine. Blanco hit only .244/.676.
Markakis has played 147 games in all but one of his nine seasons. He has played 155 or more seven times. Blanco has been a fourth outfielder, yet surprisingly he has played at least 141 games in each of his three Giants seasons. Whereas Markakis has a 73-point OPS split difference favoring his left-handed bat against right-handers, as a Giant Blanco has hit slightly better against southpaws than righties.
So what we have in Markakis is a player with a very good career track record who was quite good as recently as three seasons back. But one who has hit about the same as Blanco over the past two seasons.
We have a two-time Gold Glover. But Blanco shows up much better in the metrics and likely is the better outfielder of the two. (Do you think Markakis would have caught that fly ball to deep center-right to preserve Matt Cain's perfect game?)
We have a very durable player who has shown he can play well every day. Blanco himself has been very durable. He hasn't shown he can start every day, but then he hasn't been given the chance.
If they were paid the same, which player would we choose? Because of his long track record, I think that would have to be Markakis. But if Nick makes something like 4/$48, is he as good a value as Blanco at 1/$3.5? I just can't see how that would be the case.
Give me Blanco and someone like Mayberry or Denorfia, and let me spend the difference on one of the other holes the Giants have.
What I'm saying here is that the Giants shouldn't sign Markakis, who is probably considered the best free agent outfielder left with the exception of Melky Cabrera.
Sign Headley and Hammel, and be sure to get that stud Moncado from Cuba. Pass on the top pitchers with the possible exception of Scherzer. The Giants lose little the next two seasons and could have a juggernaut in 2017 and beyond.
IMO the above strategy gives the Giants the best chance of keeping their dynasty alive. But then, what do I know? Admittedly, not very much.
But isn't it fun to act like we do!
How importance is defense? How well can it be measured?
I ask this because of the difference in how Nick Markakis is perceived compared to Gregor Blanco.
Markakis will likely receive a contract worth over $50 million this winter. Blanco is projected as a $3.5 million arbitration player. What are their differences?
Markakis has a long track record of very good play. He has won two Gold Gloves in the past four seasons. In 2012 he had a very fine .298/.834 season. He's been a regular, while Blanco has been a fourth outfielder who played a lot due to injuries.
Let's take a look at each of these:
Markakis' career .290/.793 is highly impressive, but the past two seasons he has hit .274/.706. During those two seasons, Blanco has hit .263/.698. Blanco has hit for a bit more power and walked more often. Markakis has hit for the better average.
Markakis has won two Gold Gloves. That's pretty impressive for a corner outfielder. But defensive metrics show Blanco to be by far the better of the two. My guess is that despite Markakis' Gold Gloves, Gregor is indeed the better defensive player -- and he can play center field, whereas Markakis has made only one career start there.
Markakis' 2012 season was very fine. Blanco hit only .244/.676.
Markakis has played 147 games in all but one of his nine seasons. He has played 155 or more seven times. Blanco has been a fourth outfielder, yet surprisingly he has played at least 141 games in each of his three Giants seasons. Whereas Markakis has a 73-point OPS split difference favoring his left-handed bat against right-handers, as a Giant Blanco has hit slightly better against southpaws than righties.
So what we have in Markakis is a player with a very good career track record who was quite good as recently as three seasons back. But one who has hit about the same as Blanco over the past two seasons.
We have a two-time Gold Glover. But Blanco shows up much better in the metrics and likely is the better outfielder of the two. (Do you think Markakis would have caught that fly ball to deep center-right to preserve Matt Cain's perfect game?)
We have a very durable player who has shown he can play well every day. Blanco himself has been very durable. He hasn't shown he can start every day, but then he hasn't been given the chance.
If they were paid the same, which player would we choose? Because of his long track record, I think that would have to be Markakis. But if Nick makes something like 4/$48, is he as good a value as Blanco at 1/$3.5? I just can't see how that would be the case.
Give me Blanco and someone like Mayberry or Denorfia, and let me spend the difference on one of the other holes the Giants have.
What I'm saying here is that the Giants shouldn't sign Markakis, who is probably considered the best free agent outfielder left with the exception of Melky Cabrera.
Sign Headley and Hammel, and be sure to get that stud Moncado from Cuba. Pass on the top pitchers with the possible exception of Scherzer. The Giants lose little the next two seasons and could have a juggernaut in 2017 and beyond.
IMO the above strategy gives the Giants the best chance of keeping their dynasty alive. But then, what do I know? Admittedly, not very much.
But isn't it fun to act like we do!
