Post by Rog on Dec 1, 2014 10:50:59 GMT -5
In signing a left fielder, the Giants may choose to avoid giving out a two-year contact or a four-year pact. That's because Angel Pagan is signed through 2016 (two years), and Hunter Pence is signed through 2018 (four years). Because your team itself would be contributing to the relative scarcity of outfielders if it had two contacts expiring at the same time, that might not be a good strategy.
Add in that the Giants have at least two large expiring contacts next season (Lincecum and Hudson, at about $30 million for the pair), and it might make sense to sign an outfielder to a one-year contact. Candidates deemed likely to do so include Torii Hunter, Colby Rasmus and perhaps Alex Rios and Mike Morse.
Morse will likely receive two years, and Melky Cabrera and Nick Markakis are expected to sign for four. Nelson Cruz is expected to sign for three years, but he seems an unlikely fit for the Giants, especially at something like 3/$50.
Meanwhile, with both Hudson and Lincecum likely leaving the rotation after 2015, it might make sense to sign a pitcher for longer than a year.
The top guys will go for much longer, of course, and 2nd-tier guys Jason Hammel and Brandon McCarthy are expected for three years. Ryan Vogelsong may well command two seasons. This seems less than the ideal time to take a flyer on a one-year guy, although that could be a fallback position.
At third base, the Giants could take the position of going with Matt Duffy a year from now, and thus take a flyer on a one-year contract. But Duffy is unproven, has played very little third base and doesn't have the traditional power bat for the position. Chase Headley seems the logical candidate, but he may prove to be too expensive. Emilio Bonafacio, Alberto Callaspo and Kelly Johnson could be candidates who would require lesser contract, both in years and especially dollars. Casey McGehee, who is eligible for free agency at the end of next season, could be a trade possibility.
From a cost standpoint, Rios (at an estimated 1/$10), Hammel (3/$28), and Headley (4/$56) would likely fit the budget.
Signing one of the top three starters would certainly help with the time line (the Giants have Matt Cain locked up through 2018 and Madison Bumgarner through 2019), but would seemingly leave precious little money to fill the other two positions. Heavy backloading, as Mark suggested, could help with that.
Regarding top starting pitching, it is clearly more valuable in the postseason (four starters, or maybe even 3 1/2) than the regular season (5 starters). Should the Giants build their team around position players, who are more valuable in the regular season), or around starting pitchers and back-of-the-bullpen relievers, who carry more weight in the postseason?
I guess in a world of limited resources, the Giants are best served by their approach of recent years: Field a team which is likely to reach the postseason, and do so emphasizing pitching, which will be more valuable in the postseason. That would lead toward signing one of the big three pitchers, although a contract of five to seven years for a pitcher involves taking a heavy risk.
The number of available top free agent pitchers is larger than next year's class is likely to be. With teams more and more locking up their top players, it might be the largest for a long time. Is this the time to strike?
Looking at the overall picture, it might well be. Some different perspectives here, and I'll admit the conclusion is leading me more and more toward signing one of the top pitchers. Of course, that's also the area where the risk is the highest. And it can be a difficult strategy to pursue with at least three large holes to fill.
What a great time of year this is!
Add in that the Giants have at least two large expiring contacts next season (Lincecum and Hudson, at about $30 million for the pair), and it might make sense to sign an outfielder to a one-year contact. Candidates deemed likely to do so include Torii Hunter, Colby Rasmus and perhaps Alex Rios and Mike Morse.
Morse will likely receive two years, and Melky Cabrera and Nick Markakis are expected to sign for four. Nelson Cruz is expected to sign for three years, but he seems an unlikely fit for the Giants, especially at something like 3/$50.
Meanwhile, with both Hudson and Lincecum likely leaving the rotation after 2015, it might make sense to sign a pitcher for longer than a year.
The top guys will go for much longer, of course, and 2nd-tier guys Jason Hammel and Brandon McCarthy are expected for three years. Ryan Vogelsong may well command two seasons. This seems less than the ideal time to take a flyer on a one-year guy, although that could be a fallback position.
At third base, the Giants could take the position of going with Matt Duffy a year from now, and thus take a flyer on a one-year contract. But Duffy is unproven, has played very little third base and doesn't have the traditional power bat for the position. Chase Headley seems the logical candidate, but he may prove to be too expensive. Emilio Bonafacio, Alberto Callaspo and Kelly Johnson could be candidates who would require lesser contract, both in years and especially dollars. Casey McGehee, who is eligible for free agency at the end of next season, could be a trade possibility.
From a cost standpoint, Rios (at an estimated 1/$10), Hammel (3/$28), and Headley (4/$56) would likely fit the budget.
Signing one of the top three starters would certainly help with the time line (the Giants have Matt Cain locked up through 2018 and Madison Bumgarner through 2019), but would seemingly leave precious little money to fill the other two positions. Heavy backloading, as Mark suggested, could help with that.
Regarding top starting pitching, it is clearly more valuable in the postseason (four starters, or maybe even 3 1/2) than the regular season (5 starters). Should the Giants build their team around position players, who are more valuable in the regular season), or around starting pitchers and back-of-the-bullpen relievers, who carry more weight in the postseason?
I guess in a world of limited resources, the Giants are best served by their approach of recent years: Field a team which is likely to reach the postseason, and do so emphasizing pitching, which will be more valuable in the postseason. That would lead toward signing one of the big three pitchers, although a contract of five to seven years for a pitcher involves taking a heavy risk.
The number of available top free agent pitchers is larger than next year's class is likely to be. With teams more and more locking up their top players, it might be the largest for a long time. Is this the time to strike?
Looking at the overall picture, it might well be. Some different perspectives here, and I'll admit the conclusion is leading me more and more toward signing one of the top pitchers. Of course, that's also the area where the risk is the highest. And it can be a difficult strategy to pursue with at least three large holes to fill.
What a great time of year this is!
