Randy -- I posted this under the title "MadBum vs Kershaw" that somehow ended up in the Politics board. Let's see if I do this right this time:
If the Dodgers were to offer Kershaw for Bumgarner straight up, would anyone bite?
Rog -- The huge contract differential does put a question mark behind the idea.
Randy -- Heck even if Kershaw's contract wasn't so much larger (and btw...how brilliant was it of the Giants to ink Bum to that long term deal?)
Rog -- We discussed that at the time and have done so several times since. The Bumgarner contract has given the Giants considerale flexibility they wouldn't otherwise have had. Of course the signing (which is of the type we've discussed here for six years) was a great one for the Giants. Either Bumgarner's agent made a huge slip or Madison was willing to take what is still huge money and help the Giants for the future.
Randy ...even if the contracts were equal, and still knowing how dominant Kershaw has been in the regular season, I still keep Bumgarner. Madison has been very good in the regular season and just lights out in postseason. Kershaw, whether it be due to fatigue or choking or whatever, doesn't show up after September. I believe most Dodger fans would trade Clayton for Madison in a heartbeat right now.
Rog -- I believe you are very wrong about the Dodgers' fans being willing to make that trade if the contracts were equal. If they are, they're overreacting to recent events, which we ourselves shouldn't be. No question Madison is an excellent pitcher whose youth makes it likely he'll become even better.
But Kershaw is just about as good as any pitcher has been through his age 26 season. Even if we include his poor post season record, he guy has been incredible. He's putting up seasons that are arguably comparable to Sandy Koufax's run of five seasons (1962-1966).
Given what a huge bargain Bumgarner is, I'd have to go along with you in that I wouldn't trade Madison for Clayton given the huge salary differential. But if their salaries were the same, one would be gambling that Bumgarner's health will be clearly better than Kershaw's going forward.
Despite a slow start to his career (and I'll not soon forget that Mark made one of his few mistakes when he saw Kershaw pitch as a rookie and questioned what the hullabaloo was all about), Kershaw's ERA+ is a fabulous 151. Bumgarner's is a very good 116.
Kershaw's 151 is midway between Pedro Martinez and Walter Johnson. Bumgarner's 116 is just below Matt Cain.
As I pointed out at the beginning of this post, I think Bumgarner will improve. And while we don't know if it can continue, his post season pitching has been phenomenal. Possibly Kershaw has already peaked, although his 197 ERA+ this season was the highest of his career.
Possibly Bumgarner will be healthier going forward than Kershaw, although over the course of Madison's four full seasons, Kershaw has thrown 56 more regular season innings.
Their huge salary differentials lead me to choose Bumgarner over Kershaw in the real world. In a world where their salaries were equal, choosing Bumgarner because his 74 post season innings have been far more impressive than Kershaw's seems highly questionable, given how much better Clayton has been than Madison in Kershaw's 1378 regular season innings.
Thus far Bumgarner has been a stud. Kershaw has been a generational pitcher. Until I can think of an overriding reason for those performances to turn around with each other, I've got to go with Kershaw.
Sandy Koufax's ERA+ figures in his five fabulous seasons were 143, 159, 186, 160 and 190. Kershaw's ERA+ figures his past SIX seasons have been 143, 133, 160, 151, 194 and 197.
With Bumgarner, we're talking an excellent young pitcher who might well be building a Hall of Fame resume. With Kershaw, we're talking a guy who would have to blow it in order NOT to make the Hall.
Dollar for dollar, I've got to go with Bumgarner. Pitch by pitch, as good as Bumgarner has been, it's not even close.
Will that turn around in the future? I'm just not seeing the evidence to foretell that dramatic a change.
Read more:
sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2536/ok-again#ixzz3H5e6IYcg
