Without Sandoval Next Season

[Rog]

For those who think the Giants shouldn't re-sign Pablo Sandoval -- and there is certainly an argument that can be made for that stance -- see how you think things would look next season if the Giants don't have Pablo at third and the Dodgers do.

[klaiggeb]

The Dodger station this morning that was ripping the Giants a new one, got on Sandoval, too.

"What's he done? He's never lived up to the hype around him, nor where they thought his career would go after his first couple of seasons."

And to a point, he's right.

To a point.

But he's turned into a very, very good 3Bman, and though he's not hit anywhere near where I think he could... he ain't bad.

But Pence money? I still say no.

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- But Pence money? I still say no.

Rog -- It's about supply and demand, and the supply for third baseman -- and hitters as a whole -- will be very thin this winter. Pablo's past weight problems and his good-but-not-great year at the plate will hold him back a little.

On the other hand, his strong bounce back after a horrible start will help him, as will his vastly improved defense.

I suspect it will come down to two things, both of which I expect to go in Pablo's direction:

. Will the Giants move Buster Posey to third base?

. Will Pablo come down a little from his 5/$90 reported demand?

[Rog]

One could argue that giving Pence what is now called "Pence-like" money was quite a gamble. After the Giants acquired him in the 2012 deadline trade, Hunter hit just .219 with the Giants, striking out once every 3.6 at bats and swinging at bad pitch after bad pitch.

[rxmeister]

What's Pablo ever done? A World Series MVP, three HR's in a World Series game and two championship rings meaningless to them? I'd reluctantly recognize the market and give him the Pence money. I can see them losing him and overpaying someone like Chase Headley though.

[klaiggeb]

I think you nailed it, Mark. That's precisely what they'd do EVEN THOUGH my suggestion of moving him to 3B makes more sense.

I have NO problem signing Pablo, but not at that money. That's ridiculous.

.289 and 16 HRs and LESS than 95 RBIs shouldn't get that kind of a contract.

And honestly? I do not trust him NOT to pork up again.

I don't.

boly

[klaiggeb]

Rog---One could argue that giving Pence what is now called "Pence-like" money was quite a gamble. After the Giants acquired him in the 2012 deadline trade, Hunter hit just .219 with the Giants, striking out once every 3.6 at bats and swinging at bad pitch after bad pitch.

---boly says---

I disagree, Rog. They knew what they had in Pence. They had his track record to look at.

And though he ONLY hit .219...how did he do in clutch, RBI situations? As I recall, he was big!

boly

[rxmeister]

Not only clutch, but the emotional team leader in the 2012 playoffs with his pre game speeches. He was signed for his solid 2013 season though, and his overall career, which rendered his 2012 struggles moot. And there's no question about his conditioning of course.

[klaiggeb]

Bingo, Mark, Bingo!


Pablo's reputation almost works against him.

Yes, he's a great guy.

Yes, he's a fun loving guy.

But until this off season I think the Giants would argue that his work ethic was in question, and for me, one season isn't convincing enough to say that our Panda-leopard has changed his spots.

He may have, but for Pence-money, I need more than that.

I'd be willing to pay big for a 2 year deal, but probably not a long term deal when his motivation might not be as large as his belt size.

boly

[rxmeister]

The biggest arguments against Panda to me is his ineffectiveness against left handed pitching and his silly over aggressiveness at the plate. That bothers me more than the weight. I've rarely watched him this season and thought that it was a must that the Giants bring him back. The Giants, however, show Panda like qualities in the offseason, striking fast and not waiting. They'll make a quick decision on him and if they lose him will immediately overpay for someone else without letting the market establish itself. This is the reason they always have payroll problems. They are usually right when they sign someone, but they overpay without seeing the price the player can get on the open market.

[Rog]

Rog---One could argue that giving Pence what is now called "Pence-like" money was quite a gamble. After the Giants acquired him in the 2012 deadline trade, Hunter hit just .219 with the Giants, striking out once every 3.6 at bats and swinging at bad pitch after bad pitch.

---boly says---

I disagree, Rog. They knew what they had in Pence. They had his track record to look at.

And though he ONLY hit .219...how did he do in clutch, RBI situations? As I recall, he was big!

Rog -- You make good points here.

Pence did have the most consistent track record (I believe he had hit over .300 the year before), but his career averages weren't all that different from Pablo's.

Pence did drive in a LOT of runs for the Giants after they got him -- but it was at least as much from having a TON of RBI opportunities as his efficiency in driving them in.

Pence had been far healthier, which was his biggest advantage -- although Sandoval has been pretty healthy this season.

Here is the question that could have been asked then though. When was the last time a guy hit .219 in the second half (his only playing time with the team that was signing him) and got 5/$18? The consensus answer at the time was that he was a bit overpaid by the Giants IIRC. Not grossly overpaid, but overpaid.

Here are Hunter's numbers from ALL the 2012 season: .253/.319/.425/.743. Here are Pablo's numbers now: .284/.331/.430/.761. Pablo has better BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Their career numbers are about the same. In fact, their .815 career OPS as of today are identical.

Pablo did his best hitting early in his career, although Hunter's rookie season was also his best.

Pablo is a better fielder than Hunter, although over their careers Hunter has been at least as good.

But what it ultimately comes down to is supply and demand. There just aren't many options on the free agent market this year -- especially at third base.

5/$75 might be a final resting spot. I'd like 4/$60 better. I think one problem would be that if the Giants go to the World Series, there won't be much time between when that ends and Pablo could become a free agent. I hope the Giants are working on a September signing as they did with Pence.

The other strategy could be to move Buster to third and use the money to go in another direction. Should the Giants try to re-sign Peavy, that won't be cheap. They could certainly use a good outfielder or first baseman. Finally their depth appears to be good, although both Blanco and Arias will get decent raises.

Should be an intriguing winter. Hopefully it will an even more interesting fall.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2445/sandoval-next-season#ixzz3DUR1lRhi

[Rog]

I don't think he will get this much or this long, but Bleacher Features predicts he'll get 6/$115. He won't get it from the Giants.

Supply and demand could work heavily in his favor. The next-best free agent third basemen options are Alberto Callaspo and Chase Headley.

[sfgdood]

Rog---One could argue that giving Pence what is now called "Pence-like" money was quite a gamble. After the Giants acquired him in the 2012 deadline trade, Hunter hit just .219 with the Giants, striking out once every 3.6 at bats and swinging at bad pitch after bad pitch.

---boly says---

I disagree, Rog. They knew what they had in Pence. They had his track record to look at.





Dood - career track records: Pence .286/.340/.815 Panda .295/.347/.815

[rxmeister]

I'd like Headley and I'm sure he's done with the Yankees with ARod returning next year. He'd cost too much to be insurance, even to the Yankees. If they can't sign Panda or Headley, I'd actually prefer they stay within, and consider Posey at third with Susac catching.

[klaiggeb]

Randy--
Dood - career track records: Pence .286/.340/.815 Panda .295/.347/.815

---boly says---

Randy, you also conveniently left out another part of Pablo's track record; his weight. I, for one, do NOT believe he'll continue to follow this eating plan.

It would not surprise me to see him pork up again once he gets his money.

boly

[sfgdood]

You are correct about Pablo's past eating habits Boly, but as to whether he will continue on the straight and a bit more narrow that's something we cannot know unless we knew the man personally. I am proud of him for remaining committed this season but it IS his walk year. We shall see.

Oh one other piece of track records I can mention is the respective postseason contributions...small samples so it's not really fair but it also for years was the one aspect of Bonds' career that was criticized heavily prior to his affiliation with BALCO.

Postseason track records: Pence .210/.244/.516 Panda .325/.360/.974

[rxmeister]

Are we sure about his commitment this year, even? I think he's put on a good 15 pounds since spring training. He's now one of the slowest runners in baseball, and he was surprisingly quick when he first came up. Buster Olney is reporting today that the Giants are going to offer him a three year deal with a possible fourth year as a last resort. Seeing he's only 27, I now think he won't be re-signing.

[sfgdood]

well whether he's the same weight as ST isn't really the issue...the facts are that he's been getting stronger as the year has gone on. If he were out of shape you wouldn't expect that...or conversely, if he IS gaining weight while his numbers improve, that is an argument against the importance of his weight

[rxmeister]

Gammons has jumped in too, saying the Giants have "no chance" of re-signing Pablo, listing the Red Sox and Marlins as front runners. He does say the Giants are one of the favorites to sign the latest Cuban slugger, Yasmani Thomas, and the rumored price will be as high as 100 million dollars.

[sfgdood]

If the Giants sign ANY top international star above the likes of Boston and the Yankees and LA, then I'll tattoo Bobby Evans' face on my butt

[klaiggeb]

Randy, though to a point about weight, I agree.

But his numbers are NOT improving.

With 11 games to go, 16 HRs.

He's hitting .285 ish with 69 RBIs


Not good enough for Pence money.

Period.

for a guy hitting 4 or 5 hole, you'd better be driving in 90+ runs and/or approaching 100.

69? That's pathetic.

Thus my statement, not deserving Pence-like money...

But as Olney says, he'll get it from Captain Silly.

I've said all along he's gone unless he decides he wants to stay, and will take less.

Not going to happen.

When the $$$$ start flying, it's bye-bye, baby.

Which is assine!

You couldn't spend 26 million in one year, so why demand 30?

It's just plain stupid.

stay where you're wanted
Stay where YOU want to play
Stay where you have a chance to win.

Everything else is moot.

boly

[sfgdood]

We all concede he's not had a great season...although when you look at the overall numbers, they are very comparable to Pence's. I meant by improving was that he has gotten better as the season has progressed.

[Rog]

Boly -- I'd be willing to pay big for a 2 year deal, but probably not a long term deal when his motivation might not be as large as his belt size.

Rog -- Let's suppose the Giants are committed to playing Buster behind the plate again next season. With whom would you replace Pablo?

Maybe the decision of whether to re-sign Pablo comes down as much to anything if they are willing to use Buster as a replacement. If not, the pickin's are slim. Something tells me you're not thinking Arias!

[Rog]

Randy -- If the Giants sign ANY top international star above the likes of Boston and the Yankees and LA, then I'll tattoo Bobby Evans' face on my butt

Rog -- Did you get overly excited by Boly's comment about big buttts! It's OK if we hold you to this, right?

[Rog]

Randy is right that Pablo has improved greatly over his very slow start. Same with Pence.

If we don't want the Giants to re-sign Pablo, we should come up with a plan to replace him that doesn't involve moving Posey to third base. That one is easy, but may not be part of the Giants' thinking right now.

The pickin's are extremely thin. Whom do we pick?

[klaiggeb]

Boly -- I'd be willing to pay big for a 2 year deal, but probably not a long term deal when his motivation might not be as large as his belt size.

Rog -- Let's suppose the Giants are committed to playing Buster behind the plate again next season. With whom would you replace Pablo?

Maybe the decision of whether to re-sign Pablo comes down as much to anything if they are willing to use Buster as a replacement. If not, the pickin's are slim. Something tells me you're not thinking Arias!

---boly says---

Moot point, Rog. I said I'd move Buster to 3rd base next year. Me.

So what the Giants do if they DON'T want Buster at third is not part of the equation.


Arias?

My Lord no!


I "might" give Duffy a shot, though.

Might... Not would.

boly

[rxmeister]

Depending on what the Giants do with the pitching staff will also determine what they do at 3B in my opinion. If you're going to have Lincecum and Vogelsong in your rotation, you better not scrimp on your everyday players, because you're going to have to score a lot of runs. If you're going out there and signing or trading for a high level starter or two, you might be able to afford a lesser bat at third, even a prospect like Adam Duvall.

[Rog]

Boly --Moot point, Rog. I said I'd move Buster to 3rd base next year. Me.

So what the Giants do if they DON'T want Buster at third is not part of the equation.

Rog -- I guess we differ on this.

I'm with you on the move-Buster-to-third idea. If the Giants go that way, the only question is how they should spend the money they'll save from not signing Pablo. If the Giants are going to move Buster to third, Brian Sabean's winter becomes easier, since he'll actually have a little money to spend.

But wouldn't it be wise to have a Plan B, especially since the Giants have said they won't move Buster from the catching position for quite a while? Your plan is excellent, but it's almost too easy. The challenge is going beyond and making that Plan B, which may actually become the Giants' Plan A.

On the other hand, if Pablo isn't re-signed, this could be the ideal time to go to Buster and say, it would help the team if you were to move to third base. There are just no other palatable alternatives out there. You really like Andrew Susac and can continue to mentor him. If you'd really like to continue to catch, he won't be able to play every day anyway, so you can still keep your hand in it.

That isn't a perfect solution. Susac isn't yet proven and with Hector Sanchez having suffered his serious concussion, the Giants have no backup they can truly be sure of. Hector is less than ideal anyway. He's poor defensively, and there's a real question about his hitting. I would love to be able to look at his minor league splits and see if he truly hit that much better in key situations than his overall average, as has been the case with the Giants. It's the only thing he's done truly well.

While his splits aren't available, his minor league numbers do back up his RBI ability. Batting .288 in the minors, he had one RBI every 5.2 at bats, which is even better than his one RBI every 6.6 at bats in the majors. Strangely enough, at Fresno, he had precisely the .246 batting average, .349 slugging percentage and one RBI every 6.6 at bats as he's had with the Giants. That's a LOT of precise similarities.

So the numbers seem to indicate that Hector is indeed a better RBI man than his averages would indicate. But the sample both in AAA and in the majors is small. The Giants might want to add another backup catcher to the mix for added security, but having Buster at third base and able to move back behind the plate if necessary might cut down on that need.

I think the question is whether the Giants can spend their money better elsewhere than on Pablo. The free agent market isn't just slim at third base (funny in a way, if we think about it), it's slim overall. And the Giants have precious little to trade. Bleacher Creatures (oh, wait, that was hosted by Bob Wilkins) rated the Giants' farm system #27 after they panned Joe Panik and Susac from it.

How long do the Giants view their window of opportunity? Athough he'll be a free agent at just 28, Pablo's health and weight issues likely make him a better candidate for a short window, which is what this appears to be. The same thing is true of Jake Peavy, another potential Giants re-signee.

Now that you asked, here is my assessment of the length of the Giants' window: Randy says the Giants won't sign any of the international stars. In order for the Giants to extend their window, he needs to be wrong about that (and evidence shows that he might be -- not absolutely will be -- right). At least as important is how the Giants plan to operate when they pay off the stadium in 2017. Their cash flow should increase considerably. How much of that added cash flow will go into salaries?

The Giants' success has been built around the cornerstones of Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey. They traded away a potential cornerstone in Zack Wheeler. Looking forward just a little, we can see that those four cornerstones will almost certainly be cut in half. Perhaps Brandon Belt and Joe Panik can join the group, but they don't look nearly as formidable as Cain and Lincecum did just three years ago.

The Giants need some international blood, and they are once again said to be among the top contenders for the latest Cuban prospect. Perhaps that's where the Sandoval money goes.

The more I look at it, the bigger the Sandoval question becomes. And no, I don't mean it that way, although he does appear to have picked up a little added poundage as the season has gone along.

Will the Giants' future include Pablo Sandoval? Or will it include an international star? If not, what WILL it include? The necessary additions don't appear to be on the roster or on the farm, and they're probably not in the free agent pool either.

Will the Giants sink or swim?

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