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Post by Rog on Sept 12, 2014 12:08:49 GMT -5
The Giants put on overshifts less often that most teams, but they are the most successful team when they do so. From the Wall Street Journal, no less, we read that the Giants have overshifted 494 times, saving 25 net hits. That's a 5.06 net success rate.
Doesn't sound like much -- until one realizes that took an average of 51 points off their opponents' batting averages in those 494 at bats. Remember how we just talked about how putting a shift on Joe Panik might reduce his batting average by 50 points? One of us forgot about the bunt, so it isn't likely a shift could be put on that would cost Joe that many hits, but the Giants themselves have shown that it is possible to cut hitting back that much with the overshift.
Mark mentioned that it wouldn't make sense to overshift against a non-power hitter. The appropriate comment might be that it wouldn't make quite as MUCH sense to shift. Look again at Joe's spray chart and tell me you couldn't find a way to take 25 points off his average. You guys can't honestly tell me that because you're too good.
And so should other teams be. I just hope they never figure it out. All it takes is a hit taken away every two weeks to cut a guy's average by 25 points. You could do that easily. Couldn't you? The Giants have done twice that well.
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Post by donk33 on Sept 12, 2014 13:01:20 GMT -5
The Giants put on overshifts less often that most teams, but they are the most successful team when they do so. From the Wall Street Journal, no less, we read that the Giants have overshifted 494 times, saving 25 net hits. That's a 5.06 net success rate. Doesn't sound like much -- until one realizes that took an average of 51 points off their opponents' batting averages in those 494 at bats. Remember how we just talked about how putting a shift on Joe Panik might reduce his batting average by 50 points? One of us forgot about the bunt, so it isn't likely a shift could be put on that would cost Joe that many hits, but the Giants themselves have shown that it is possible to cut hitting back that much with the overshift. Mark mentioned that it wouldn't make sense to overshift against a non-power hitter. The appropriate comment might be that it wouldn't make quite as MUCH sense to shift. Look again at Joe's spray chart and tell me you couldn't find a way to take 25 points off his average. You guys can't honestly tell me that because you're too good. And so should other teams be. I just hope they never figure it out. All it takes is a hit taken away every two weeks to cut a guy's average by 25 points. You could do that easily. Couldn't you? The Giants have done twice that well. dk what you seem to forget is those charts are based on how they played their fielders and how they pitched to Panik...all this changes when they shift their fielders and changed their pitching pattern...
if Joe has that good bat control all this means is Joe's hit pattern would tend to shift away from where the fielders are stationed....
The interesting part of the Giants overshift is they sometimes shift after the first pitch... someone should tell Bochy to try shifting his fielders so that the SS stays in his normal position...the second baseman stays close to his normal position and the third baseman goes into short right field....in the situation, the double play combination stays in their normal position and the SS covers the left side of the infield...this is against LH hitters...
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Post by Rog on Sept 12, 2014 19:47:20 GMT -5
dk what you seem to forget is those charts are based on how they played their fielders and how they pitched to Panik...all this changes when they shift their fielders and changed their pitching pattern... Rog -- I don't think it's very hard to match up the defense with the hitter, pitcher and pitching pattern. I might remind you that most of the things you say I "forget" or "seem to forget," I haven't forgotten at all. It kind of surprises me when someone says someone else "forgot" something in order to help defend that someone's position. If a person has truly thought something out fully, he usually realizes what the other person is likely to see and accounts for it with his own thinking. When a person says someone else "forgot" something, doesn't that then shed a little doubt if that other person actually HASN'T forgotten it, but rather accounted for it? Don -- if Joe has that good bat control all this means is Joe's hit pattern would tend to shift away from where the fielders are stationed.... Rog -- Joe does have good bat control, but it isn't nearly as easy to (consistently) shift from the defense as one might think. If one looks at his chart, one sees that Joe spreads the ball around with his fly balls, but he's a sharp pull hitter with his grounders. Don -- The interesting part of the Giants overshift is they sometimes shift after the first pitch... Rog -- I think it can make sense for the third baseman to shift farther away from the line with two strikes. Hadn't really noticed the one-pitch-late shift. I would think it was forgetful rather than strategic, but I'm merely guessing. Don -- someone should tell Bochy to try shifting his fielders so that the SS stays in his normal position...the second baseman stays close to his normal position and the third baseman goes into short right field....in the situation, the double play combination stays in their normal position and the SS covers the left side of the infield...this is against LH hitters... Rog -- I have mentioned that here as well. As far as I know, you're the first person I have come across at any level who agrees. I think your logic is very good here. I'm surprised no team has tried it (as far as I know). In the future, if I make a comment like this, should I start the sentence with "Someone should tell Bochy" or "IMO" or "A good idea might be."? What do we think here? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2443/when-hitter-says-oh-shift#ixzz3D9SY7yer |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 12, 2014 23:02:26 GMT -5
Personally, I believe this "over shifting" is going to have a short shelf life.
Or at least it should.
Teams right now, and their players are approaching it very foolishly.
I mean, they're over shifting on everyone! Drop some bunts down, go the other way... FORCE them out of that shift.
That's the way I'd play it.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 13, 2014 1:44:01 GMT -5
Boly -- Personally, I believe this "over shifting" is going to have a short shelf life. Rog -- I don't think so. Its use has been increasing throughout our lifetimes, and the rate of increase has greatly escalated the past two or three years. Boly -- Or at least it should. Rog -- Why not take advantage of tendencies? That's what defenses do in every other sport. Boly -- Teams right now, and their players are approaching it very foolishly. I mean, they're over shifting on everyone! Drop some bunts down, go the other way... FORCE them out of that shift. That's the way I'd play it. Rog -- Me too. Throughout baseball history though, I don't know of very many hitters who have made that type of adjustment. And if they do adjust in that manner, simply reduce the shift a bit to compensate. What do you think of the Giants' having reduced hitters' averages by 51 points when they have used the overshift this season? That's a HUGE drop. That's the difference between having a bad pitcher and a good one. Between an average pitcher and a great one. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2443/when-hitter-says-oh-shift#ixzz3DAvlfPIn |
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 13, 2014 10:40:49 GMT -5
I agree with what you're saying, Rog, but my point is that IF I were a player, (not a slow footed slog), I WOULD force them out of the shift by making concerted efforts to go the other way ALL THE TIME the situation allowed, and I'd also bunt up that 3rd baseline frequently so that the defense would NOT know what I was going to do.
If I was a manager, I'd INSIST upon it.
Both would force the other team to either give up base runners, or get out of the shift.
But it requires the players NOT to be Teddy-Ballgame hard headed or stubborn.
boly
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Post by Rog on Sept 14, 2014 8:30:26 GMT -5
I would overshift until a player showed me he could do the types of things you mention. Once he did, I would modify the shift.
The one flaw in the shift I devised for Panik is that I completely overlooked the bunt. I would need to play the third baseman much closer to the line and in closer. That said, it is easier for most batters to hit a ball in the air the opposite way than to hit a ground ball. The physics of the swing dictate it.
As for Ted Williams, I agree with you that he should have adjusted more to the shift. Still, as arguably the best hitter in history, it's difficult to argue with his results. But, yes, I think Ted should have bunted more. I don't have a spray chart on him to know how it would have affected the defense, but obviously it would have kept the third baseman closer to the line.
Has anyone replied to Don's excellent and seemingly obvious suggestion that in an overshift against a lefty hitter, the third baseman should actually become the second baseman, with the second baseman becoming the shortstop and the shortstop becoming the third baseman? As Don points out, that would keep the double play combination as the double play combination as opposed to involving the third baseman in a play he wouldn't normally make and move the shortstop to his unfamiliar side of the bag.
This seems so obvious that I'm shocked teams aren't doing it. Is there something Don and I are overlooking?
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Post by Rog on Sept 14, 2014 8:39:04 GMT -5
Incidentally, was anyone else shocked at how the Giants' overshifts have reduced batting averages against those shifts by 51 points? I have long been an advocate of overshifting more, but I thought the impact might be half that much. And over the entire league, it might be. Remember that the Giants -- while not being the team that overshifted the most -- reduced batting averages by the most when they did so. I believe the team that had the worst results actually had a tiny NEGATIVE.
That would tend to indicate that the average might be around the middle, or perhaps 25 points or so.
A point I would like to make too. While it certainly isn't impossible for hitters to adjust to a shift and minimize its effect, I would force the batter to make that adjustment, rather than simply giving up on the shift in case he did so.
Batters have patterns where they hit balls. That pattern usually differs significantly between balls on the ground and in the air. Putting on the overshift is kind of like overplaying a dominant right-handed basketball player, making him go to his left. Or overplaying the sidelines and short pass if a cornerback has safety help over the middle.
In other words, stuff that is pretty common sensible.
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