At Detroit

[klaiggeb]

I'm elaborating on Mark's most recent post on the "Bochy" thread.

It won't surprise me if we get swept in this series.

It really won't.

It SHOULDN'T happen, but it wouldn't surprise me.


Bochy doesn't get the "DH" Concept, and to me, it's OBVIOUS that he hasn't recognized yet that SOME GUYS just don't fit well in the DH slot.

I was one of those. I was a MUCH BETTER hitter when I was playing in the field.

You feel a part of the game. Your juices are flowing.

DH isn't a role for everyone who can hit. It's for guys who can ADJUST to sitting and then hitting.

I don't believe Posey can do that, nor do I think Pablo can.

They need to be IN the game, not viewing it from the outside.


We'll see tonight, and Lord, I hope I'm wrong.

I have a reallllllllly bad feeling about this one.


boly

[rxmeister]

How's that bad feeling now after we blew Detroit out of the building? Even the monsoon couldn't save them! I liked the Duvall as DH thing although I would have preferred him at 1B with Susac as the DH or Posey, but at least he used it to get another bat in the lineup, something he ordinarily doesn't do. No sign of Arias anywhere!

[klaiggeb]

Felt really good, Mark!

I LOVED being wrong!

LOVED being wrong!!!

I'm guessing that Susac was NOT in the lineup BECAUSE there was going to be a short turn around, day game after night game...which, of course, was made worse by the almost 3 hour rain delay.

boly

[rxmeister]

Beat them again today! This team's ability to win games they should lose and lose games they should win is astonishing. Pretty impressive to go on the road and beat Porcello and Price back to back. And someone named Posey is making a late run at another batting title AND MVP!!

[klaiggeb]

I have to admit, Mark, even when "Serve 'em up Sergio" served another one up, I wasn't that worried.

What they've done after playing HORRIBLY for 2 months has been impressive.


Do you recall what Kurkow said about 2 weeks back when SF was returning for a road trip?

On the plane he went up to Kruk and said something to this effect: "We're IN this thing!"

To take advange to Price and Porcello... wow!

Am I SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO glad to have been proven wrong!

boly

[rxmeister]

Tomorrow they're pitching some unknown named Lobstein and I bet we don't touch him!

[Rog]

Does Lobstein throw an Eephus pitch?

[Rog]

I can see why Boly thought the Giants might get swept this series. As he mentioned, Price and Porcello have been really good. I believe each has won more games than any Giants starter.

I hope we can also see why it is important not to over-react. Things don't always go the way it seems like they should.

When the Giants went 42-21 to open the season, it was easy to think the Giants were the best team in SF Giants history. Since then, they have had the 29th-best record among the 30 teams. That would make it seem they have no chance.

But suddenly they have won 9 of 11, and the world looks rosy again.

The entire time, the Giants were a good team. They weren't great, and they weren't lousy. It's just that our PERCEPTION of them varied that greatly. A team is gray, yet we look for black or white. As with this season, that team can go from vivid white, to stark black, back to white again.

Fan came from the word "fanatic," but it also comes from the word "fancy." Its synonym is now considered to be supporter. (Guess that tells us what fans of athletic endeavors are.) Supporter is defined as an "adherent, follower, backer or advocate." Nowhere does it say to lose rational thought!

[klaiggeb]

Actually, Rog, my thoughts that we would be swept, or lose 2 of 3 had nothing to do with the starting pitching.

It had EVERYTHING to do with my thoughts, feelings, and beliefs about Bochy boctching things.

It really did.


I thought he's screw up the DH, #1, screw up the lineup, #2 and over manage, 3

I also thought that their hitting, 1-5, would take it's toll early.

I was wrong on all counts.

boly

[Rog]

The only counts I have been wrong on are 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2! But then, who's counting?

[rxmeister]

Funny you mention counts, because the main reason the Giants couldn't get back in this game was their inability to come through when they had the count their way. In the seventh inning with first and third one out, Pagan popped out on a 3-2 pitch, and then Panik popped out on a 2-0 pitch. Then in the eighth with one man on and no out, Pence grounded out on a 3-1 pitch. Then with two men on, Ishikawa flew out on a 3-1 pitch. Four consecutive key outs in hitters counts.
And by the way, when Bochy called up Hunter Strickland he said he wasn't afraid to use him in high leverage situations. So what does he do down just two runs? Brings in long reliever George Kontos, who proceeds to turn the game into a blowout. Then he brings in Strickland in the eighth and the kid makes the Tigers look silly. Good job there, Boch!

[klaiggeb]

Mark, I'm right with you on this one.

I'll also add my contention ALL YEAR LONG, my bitch, actually, is that when our hitters have count leverage, 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, they chase out of the strike zone.

2 cases in point; 9th inning, 2 on, none out, 2-0 pitch to Pagan... at his ANKLES...he chases, 5-4-3.

Panik did it with RISP
Pence, as you mentioned
Blanco did it, as well as others.

It's getting only.

Just because the count is in your favor doesn't mean you HAVE to swing.

But our morons all too frequently do, which drives me crazy.

Kruk said it perfectly; "Be aggressive with STRIKES, not balls."

We have a number of players who, it seems, can't tell the difference.

boly

[rxmeister]

When someone like Pence does it, it's not a surprise, he's a free swinger. I was really disappointed when Panik popped out on the 2-0 pitch. He's a very disciplined hitter, and POSEY IS ON DECK!!! That was our chance and the kid really blew it there.

[klaiggeb]

It's not that it surprises me, Mark, it disappoints me.

I guess I foolishly expect more from veterans; professionals.

It also disappoints me the way our guys come out of their shoes swinging at 2-0, 3-1 pitches ALWAYS expecting fastball... and almost never getting one.

I mean, seriously, you'd like to think they'd learn a lesson.

I guess not.

boly

[Rog]

Regarding using Kontos instead of Strickland, one can argue either way. Bruce has said he would now use Hunter in more stress situations. Strickland looks really good to me, but let's not forget he is also coming up from AA. I wonder why the Giants didn't move him up to AAA when he hwas having such fine success in AA.

As for swinging outside the strike zone, even the best hitters do so. For instance, Joe Panik has one of the best eyes in the majors and also usually takes early in the count. Yet he swings at just over one out of every four pitches outside the zone.

I think what we forget is that today's hitters probably face the fastest and most moving pitches ever. It just isn't as easy as we sometimes make it out to be.

[rxmeister]

Maybe we were disappointed in Panik because of the high standard he is already setting. Last night 5 for 5! Wow! And the lack of power really isn't an issue with the kid because he can't be defended. His hits go in every direction. Talk about a perfect night, and not just for Panik. Giants won, Dodgers lost and EVERY other team fighting for the WC lost too!

[klaiggeb]

Roger-Regarding using Kontos instead of Strickland, one can argue either way.

---boly says---

I wouldn't have wanted Strickland in there, Roger. I would have called for Machi, and asked for multiple innings since we had an off day on Monday.

And if not Machi, then Affeldt, Machi, and Romo, followed by Casilla.

I like Kontos... but in brief intervals.

boly

[Rog]

Mark -- the lack of power really isn't an issue with the kid because he can't be defended. His hits go in every direction.

Rog -- I understand what you're saying here, Mark, but on what I think was his fourth hit, I had just the opposite reaction. The hit I'm talking about is the sharp line drive that hit just in front of the left fielder. I saw how shallow he was playing, and realized he could play even shallower.

If you go to Fan Graphs, you can see a spray chart showing the location, type of hit, and air time of the balls he has hit. What are the characteristics?

. He hits the ball medium deep or less a high percentage of the time, although he has decent power to the middle of the diamond.

. He pulls the heck out of his ground balls.

. He hits to all fields, but because he hits so many ground balls, his average ball is hit in the direction of a normally positioned second baseman.

So how would I play him?

First of all, I would put together a Ted Williams/Willie McCovey/Ryan Howard-type shift on the infield. It would need to be a little shallower, since Joe has average to good speed. But cover the shortstop position, the second base position, put a fielder out in shallow right field, have the first baseman guard the line a bit, and I'll bet the infield could take away quite a few hits.

As for the outfield, I would keep it shallow in left and right. I would play him as a pull hitter, taking away left-center, playing the center fielder straight away, and playing the right fielder closer to the line.

If we look at his chart, I'll bet we could take 50 points off his average playing him that way. Playing him in the right positions will hurt him more than a slugger, since he puts a high proportion of his at bats into play. I expected to see some trends, but I was surprised at how MANY trends I saw.

Everyone here might take five minutes or less and take a look for themselves. I think you will be surprised at what you see.

Joe would adjust some to the positioning, of course, but as you mention, he already hits the ball all over the field, so how much can he adjust? Even with a hitter who sprays the ball as much as Joe does, properly positioning the defense can make a lot of difference.

If we were going to look at just one change, think of all the hard-hit ground balls Joe has put in the hold between first and second. Play the second baseman in the "wishbone," and he'll throw Joe out a few times. Personally, I would make it the third baseman, since he has a stronger arm and if the play involves much range, the batter can't be thrown out anyway, since the throw would have to be too off-balance, but I haven't seen a team follow my idea).

What would be the likely result of such positioning? Joe would get a few more extra-base hits, since he would hit more balls over the heads of outfielders and would gain some extra base hits on balls he hit that went AGAINST the shift. But I'll bet he would get a lot fewer SINGLES. I think his number of singles could be cut by almost a quarter.

Anyway, don't take my word for it. Take a look for yourself, and imagine yourself as a "positioning" scout for a rival team. If we can see it this easily ourselves, can you imagine how well someone with precise data (location, time in the air, etc.) could do with regression analysis? As much as an oldie like myself hates to admit it, it's a new world. Why not take advantage of it?

Can you imagine how much a pitcher is who can take even 25 points off the average hitter's average? What if a team could do it for ALL its pitchers with a scout, who wouldn't have to be paid all that much? Many teams are already doing it to a degree, and I'll bet they could do it even better if they really put their heads into it.

Anyway, sorry to go off on a simply comment you made, Mark, especially I agree with your comment to a degree. But take a look at his spray chart. I have a feeling you'll be surprised how much you might learn in five minutes. This positioning thing isn't rocket science. It's mostly common sense.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2435/detroit#ixzz3CxXmf6Kq

[Rog]

Boly -- I wouldn't have wanted Strickland in there, Roger. I would have called for Machi, and asked for multiple innings since we had an off day on Monday.

Rog -- I too am an advocate of more than one inning for a reliever, but it's hard to argue with the success teams are having using top relievers for one inning only -- even less in the case of specialists.

Now, for a more pressing question: Which pitchers would you use in the post season, and how would you use them? Let's begin with how many you would carry. Then move on to whom they would be. And finally, to how they would be used.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2435/detroit?page=1#ixzz3CxgGUbdC

[rxmeister]

I don't think you can over shift on a non power hitter, Rog. He's just going to bunt his way to a four for four every night. Over shifts are for power hitters only.

[Rog]

Mark -- I don't think you can over shift on a non power hitter, Rog. He's just going to bunt his way to a four for four every night. Over shifts are for power hitters only.

Rog -- You make a great point, Mark. Sometimes we forget the obvious. Forget the wishbone defense, but I think a fresh look at Joe's spray chart would still indicate an overshift. I think teams are beginning to do so to a degree, but I think they should do so even more.

Think about all the balls Joe hits between first and second base, and how many he hits up the middle. I'd have to re-look my model, but I do think Joe's hitting could be cut down. To guard against the bunt, I might have the third baseman play a little off the line but play shallow. When the pitch came in and Joe wasn't bunting, he could take a step to his left so that his momentum would cut off a little more of the left side.

Looking things over again though, the bunt threat would take away a lot of what I would otherwise do with the infield. I do think the corner outfielders could still make some hay.

Here's something the spray chart shows that would help the right fielder. Panik hasn't hit a single fly ball to the right third or so of the field. He's hit quite a few line drives and a ton of grounders, to right, but his closest fly ball has been hit to the left of a second baseman's normal position. The right fielder should definitely NOT play the popular AT&T defense well off the line.

But, yeah, the threat of the bunt would significantly reduce the impact an infield shift could have against Joe. I'd be shifting though, especially in the outfield.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2435/detroit#ixzz3D0d6aXlO

[klaiggeb]

Roger--Now, for a more pressing question: Which pitchers would you use in the post season, and how would you use them? Let's begin with how many you would carry. Then move on to whom they would be. And finally, to how they would be used.

---boly says---

I think our starting staff has some issues going into the playoffs.

1-Hudson has not been sharp at all lately.

2-I still think Peavy is an 85 pitch, 6 inning guy

3-Bumgarner hasn't been consistently sharp as he has been in the past.

4-Lopez good control really hasn't been there all year.

5-Vogey has struggled with the strike zone lately

For me, those are things to be concerned about.

My rotation RIGHT NOW, AND ONLY RIGHT NOW, would set up like this:

Bumgarner
Peavey
Hudson
Vogelsong

I think Gutierrez still has a sore shoulder so I'm not sure he makes the roster.

The bullpen would be, and in no particular order

Casilla
Romo
Affeldt
Lopez
Petit
Machi
Kontos
? Depends upon Gutierrez' shoulder. If not him...Strickland, I guess.

boly

[klaiggeb]

Oops!

I forgot to add Lincecum... regretfully, in that last spot.

boly

[Rog]

I think you nailed it, assuming all are healthy.

Position-wise, it would seem pretty clear that it would be (health permitting):

Posey
Susac

Belt
Panik
Crawford
Sandoval
Arias
Matt
Ishikawa

Pence
Pagan
Morse
Blanco
Perez

Possibly Duvall, Gutierez (if healthy) or even Quiroz instead of Perez.

[klaiggeb]

Possibly Duvall, Gutierez (if healthy) or even Quiroz instead of Perez.

---boly says---

Quiros.. that would be an interesting add, and allow Bochy to let Susac PH, or catch while Posey plays 1B IF...IFFFFFF Belt is not healthy.

boly

[rxmeister]

Looks like Belt will be back. He got the full clearance yesterday, and expects to be playing in a week to ten days. Bochy is talking about help off the bench, but if he proves to be fully healthy there's no way you can keep him out of the lineup for important games. The only question to me will be Blanco vs. Morse, and now that Blanco is hitting, I think that becomes a no brainer.

[klaiggeb]

Mark--The only question to me will be Blanco vs. Morse, and now that Blanco is hitting, I think that becomes a no brainer.

---boly says---

I agree, Mark. I agree. Although I have to admit, somewhat reluctantly.

Blanco has exploded in a way I never thought possible. Which is good.

But I soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo enjoyed watching Morse' powerful swing and the bombs those swings produced.

I miss that.

Then again, I DON'T miss his bumbling attempts to play LF.

IF he had been out there during this run, his LACK of defense might have cost us a couple of games. Meaning Blanco made some plays Morse could only make in his dreams.

boly

[Rog]

Whether to play Blanco or Morse depends on how hot each is, the hand of the pitcher, and how often the opposing team hits balls -- especially fly balls -- to left field.

One could even make an argument for batting Morse slightly higher in the order so that Blanco might be brought into the game earlier for defense. Even whether the game was at home or on the road could make a tiny difference.

[rxmeister]

If Morse was still hitting home runs, I'd have some doubt about which way to go, but with your season on the line in important games you have to go with the defender in my opinion, especially when the difference in offense is so small right now.

[klaiggeb]

Mark--If Morse was still hitting home runs, I'd have some doubt about which way to go, but with your season on the line in important games you have to go with the defender in my opinion, especially when the difference in offense is so small right now.

---boly says---

We're thinking along the same lines, Mark. We've got a lot of bats going well, and IF ....IF Blanco can continue in the .250-.260 range, I think his defense would be a God send.

boly