Taking out hot and cold streaks

[Rog]

This year the Giants have been sort of like three different teams:

The one that went 42-21 to open the season.

The one that went 20-36 over their next 56 contests.

The one that has gone 11-5 over the past 16.

So, which is the real Giants team?  One way of finding it may be to take out the really big streaks within each of the three streaks.


The 42-21 team built that record around a 9-1 streak and a 10-1 skein.  Take the two big streaks out, and the team was 23-19.

The 20-36 team suffered from losing streaks of six games (twice) and five games.  Take those three big streaks out, and the team was 20-19.

The present 11-5 team has benefited from its present five-game streak, without which it would  be 6-5.

23-19 is a .548 winning percentage.  20-19 is .513.  6-5 is .545.  Add them together, and we get 49-43, a winning percentage of .533.  On the season, the Giants are 73-62, a winning percentage of .541.

Who are the Giants?  Well, they may be EACH of the three teams we have seen -- if we make the proper adjustments.  Hard to say at this point if these results are simply coincidental or if they have meaning.  What they do seem to illustrate though is the old adage that they're not as good as they seem when they're going well, nor as bad as they seem when they're going poorly.

[klaiggeb]

My opinion, Rog?

This is the real team.

It is.

We're not always going to score 30+ runs in every 3 game series, but we have the potential to do so, even more so when/if Belt returns.

We'll be DEEP.

boly

[rxmeister]

Yeah, the offensive slump was inexplicable based on the talent they have here. Very few teams go seven deep with good hitters, especially in the non DH league. And when Brandon Crawford was hitting early it was eight deep! And when Mad Bum pitches...My worry was always the rotation and the addition of Peavy has really helped turn it around. Lincecum is off to the bullpen, and if they make it to the playoffs, Petit joins him. By the way, do the Giants have the guts to leave Timmy off the playoff roster if he continues to pitch like this? I say no.

[klaiggeb]

By the way, do the Giants have the guts to leave Timmy off the playoff roster if he continues to pitch like this? I say no.

---boly says--

Man! That's a good question, Mark!

Do they have the guts? I say, yes, they do. They did it with the outrageously paid Zito, and I think they'd do it again IF.... IF... he doesn't show drastic improvement.

I think the real question will be the health of the staff, especially Gutierrez. Bochy said "sore shoulder." Fine. Whatever, Bruce.

You mislead everyone before with Cain, among others, so I'm not buying into this one 100%.

And Cain wasn't the first one about whom you mislead the team's fans.


As to Tim, I was encouraged by his outting yesterday.

Yeah, he gave up the runs... BUT, for the most part, he was down in the zone.

As Bochy said, he was Rusty, and looked it.


But I was encouraged.

boly

[Rog]

Tim didn't seem to have any of his pitching going for him. His fastball velocity has been down, and he couldn't really get either his slider or change up going on Sunday. He threw far more curves than usual, but he had a hard time getting the pitch over, and his break didn't appear to be sharp, as hitters resisted dropping out of the zone to chase it.

In the 8th inning, Tim threw mostly fastballs -- no curve balls. In the 9th, he threw almost no sliders or change ups, going liberally to the curve to complement the fastball.

Just 20 strikes in 36 pitches overall. He did do a better job of missing the middle of the plate, and he missed low more often than high. I mostly saw a continuation of the struggle.