Blanco or Colvin?

[Rog]

With Angel Pagan out, should the Giants start Gregor Blanco or Tyler Colvin in center?  The best answer I can think of would be "no."

But since one or the other needs to start at least until after the All-Star break, which should it be?  Perhaps a look at the facts should be in order:

.  Even though it seems like Colvin is outhitting Blanco by a lot, since Colvin came up, Blanco has outhit him by 21 points.  Blanco has reached base 5% more, while Colvin has hit for 6.5% more total bases.

.  Both hitters have been ice cold.  Blanco is 3 for 23, while Colvin isn't much better at 4 for 23.

.  Blanco is easily the better fielder, although frankly he isn't having one of his better defensive seasons.  Blanco is the better base runner, although he inexplicably just got caught off base.

So what is the answer?  It's a little complicated, but here it is.

Don't lead off with Blanco unless he has a very favorable matchup.  Even though he gets on base a lot more than Colvin does, he doesn't get on base often enough to lead off, despite his fine speed.

Colvin can probably bat a spot or so higher in the lineup, since he has more power and can in theory better protect middle of the order hitters.  But he's insufficient in center field, so he should play there only when he has a favorable matchup against the pitcher and the Giants have a ground ball pitcher on the mound.

Bottom line:  The Giants need to figure out the Pagan situation soon.  Even if he's coming back, they likely need a right-handed hitting outfielder who can play center field -- and hopefully have the power to replace Morse if Mike becomes injured.  Like Pagan, he has a significant risk of injury.

Now, if an outfielder can play center field and can hit with the power to replace Morse, he's likely playing in the All-Star game Tuesday, so perhaps the Giants could just have him report directly from the All-Star game.  More seriously, they need to find an outfielder who at least has a chance to back up both players.  If that player happens to be a truly good player, the Giants can use him as a hedge against not signing Morse.  Then they can either flip him or keep him next season to protect against injuries to Pagan, Morse and potentially even Hunter Pence.

Over the winter we identified the injury risk of both Pagan and Morse, and now the Giants are feeling the pinch of it.  How do they get an outfielder who can back up either of them -- but won't fret when sitting on the bench?  Looking back -- and I certainly didn't have the foresight to mention this at the time -- they should have picked up a good outfielder when Belt went down or at least when both Belt and Pagan were out.  Perhaps they would have had they realized how much time Pagan would miss.

What they most need are a good outfielder and some bullpen depth.  Regarding the latter, Sergio Romo seems to be bouncing back, which will help.  On the other side, Machi, Gutierrez and Lopez have been performing poorly.

The Giants should be able to pick up bullpen depth without giving up significant prospects.  Gary Brown is hitting better, so he could be one with value.  Or he could get his act together to the point where he could be the one to back up Pagan and Morse.  If not, the Giants will likely have to part with a decent prospect in order to pick up the caliber of fourth outfielder they need.  What they actually need is at least a third outfielder.

They should have enough for second base with the combination of Panik and Scutaro.  I think Panik could handle the position himself.  Perhaps Arias or Adrianza can provide trade bait.

The Giants aren't likely to make themselves good enough to re-catch the Dodgers.  They don't have the talent to do so, and the Dodgers likely have more minor leaguers to trade for reinforcements than the Giants do.  But there is still a chance they can catch them, and they should have a fine shot at a Wild Card berth regardless.  But they need help.  They have needed help for at least a month.

With a 9 1/2 game need, there was no need to panic.  But the real question now is if the Giants should spend for reinforcements (which appears as if it should be the first choice), or simply pray they have enough with what they've got and not trade prospects while their value is down.

The good news is that the Giants now appear to have the starting pitching to go deeply into the postseason if they get there.  The question becomes how much of their future they should sacrifice to increase their odds of making it to the postseason.  If their prospect mix is as bad as it has seemed this season, they should take the position of the A's and load up for the present.

Important decisions for Sabean, Evans and company.  I don't think we truly know enough to make solid judgments as to what they should do.  I wish I had better answers, but I don't.

[islandboagie]

I don't think the Giants will make a big move for an outfielder since Pagan seems like he'll be back soon (knock on wood.)

However, they might be interested in upgrading their outfield bench. Colvin hasn't quite given them the offensive bench player they were hoping for. When you have a 4th and 5th outfielder it's reasonable to assume one would make a decent pinch hitter off the bench. Neither Blanco or Colvin have supplied that need. Blanco offers speed and defense, Colvin isn't terrible in that regard, but clearly Blanco is faster and better defensively.

Zobrist has been mentioned as a possible addition, but Panik has been good enough not to get demoted and Scutaro is healthy enough to get some playing time. Zobrist can also play in the outfield, but when Pagan returns Zobrist would become a bench player. Based on that, I dont believe the Giants would give up what it would take to land a player that is getting increasing interest from other teams. It might still happen if the Giants are willing to put all the chips down, but I find it unlikely.

I still think the focus will be on relief pitching, and if a big move is made, the bullpen will be the focus. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part, but keep in mind that in both championship runs the bullpen was the area they focused on beefing up.

[Rog]

I think landing a center fielder who can play all three outfield spots should be a very high priority. With Pence and Morse healthy and Pagan said to be returning later this month, that seems counter-intuitive.

But Pagan and Morse have both been injury-prone, and unless Colvin or the more versatile Blanco can bounce back this season, having any of the three outfielders could present a serious problem.

He would cost a lot, but I'm beginning to lean toward Ben Zobrist, assuming he can still play center field if needed. I'm not sure if he's played there recently or not, and he's now 33 years old. But he could play second base and then be available to play one of the outfield spots if necessary.

I'm still high on Joe Panik, and Marco Scutaro is back, but having a top player such as Zobrist available to man the keystone while providing strong outfield depth would be a wonderful piece. Panik could be sent back to Fresno to stay sharp if needed, or he could remain on the major league roster, perhaps receiving a few starts along the way.

If Chris Denorfia hits right-handed, he could be another candidate. I see the outfield as the top need, but a guy like Zobrist who could play either the outfield or infield should have significant value. He's on a reasonable contract and is team controlled through the end of the 2015 season. He's a very professional player.

There are some very good relief pitchers available, but I wouldn't at all mind seeing the Giants pick up a minor reliever or two, as they often do on the cheap.

Since he's a high-level Swiss Army knife, Zobrist sounds quite good to me. But he won't come cheaply, either.

[islandboagie]

You might be right, but still, to me, having a legit closer seems like a greater need than a utility player down the stretch.

[Rog]

The Giants must acquire a right-handed hitting outfielder. Pagan may not be back until August, and there's no guarantee he'll stay healthy. Michael Morse also has a difficult injury history.

Let's ask this question: How would you like to have both Pagan and Morse out injured, and an outfield including Blanco and Colvin facing a southpaw?

[Rog]

The Giants already have a legit closer. Perhaps even two of them.



I agree they could use bullpen help, and you make a good point that they added bullpen help at the trade deadline in both 2010 and 2012, but in neither case did they add a closer.

[islandboagie]

2 legit closers? Where have you been?

The Giants have one injury prone relief pitcher who is filling the void for the time being and one who has been our closer since the end of 2012 but had trouble and has since been removed from his closing duties. Neither is a legit closer at the moment.

Some bullpen help in other areas would make our bullpen better, a legit closer would make us much much better.

[Rog]

Boagie -- 2 legit closers? Where have you been?

Rog -- I've been in the Sacramento area, and for 10 days about a month ago I was in Tennessee and Indiana. Nice of you to ask.

Boagie -- The Giants have one injury prone relief pitcher who is filling the void for the time being and one who has been our closer since the end of 2012 but had trouble and has since been removed from his closing duties. Neither is a legit closer at the moment.

Rog -- Sergio Romo is (or at least was) a legit closer who fell on very hard times for a month and a half or so. He seems to be bouncing back in an earlier role, and he might still be able to close if asked again. He's struggled this season, but he's been an outstanding reliever in the previous four seasons.

Santiago Casilla has indeed suffered some injuries, but when healthy (which has been most of the time), he's been outstanding. Just over two years ago he was being mentioned as a possible All-Star before a blister problem derailed him, and the Giants went to closer by committee. Prior to the blister though, he had saved 20 games in 21 chances. That's well above simply legitimate.

Casilla was recently re-installed as the closer, and is perfect in the brief period since.

Now, would the Giants be interested in a good closer? Of course. Think of a bullpen with Machi for the 6th inning, Romo for the 7th, Casilla for the 8th, the new closer for the 9th, and Lopez and Affeldt both available to face troublesome left-handed hitters. Such a closer would cost a fair amount in players and would likely be expensive to retain or re-sign. Still, a definite possibility.

A far more reasonable trade alternative might be to pick up a guy with capabilities around the level of Lopez, who was indespensible after being acquired at the trade deadline in 2010. I believe the Giants picked up Lopez for just Joey Martinez and John Bowker, neither of whom has been heard of much since.

So why would I be willing to trade quite a bit for a guy like Ben Zobrist? Because the Giants have two problem areas right now that might be solved soon, but also might well not be for some time. In addition, they have three other players who have been injury-prone: Michael Morse, Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Belt.

Center field is a black hole right now, and Angel Pagan isn't expected back until early August. We don't know how healthy he will be when he returns. Second base may have been solved by the call up of Joe Panik and the return of Marco Scutaro. But Panik hasn't yet proven he can hit at the major league level, and Scutaro hasn't yet shown he is healthy enough to solve the problem.

What are the chances that that Morse, Pablo or Belt gets injured again before the end of the season? How about the chances that the returns of Pagan or Scutaro become complicated? With Pagan already out for another 15 days or so, I would suspect that the odds are worse than 50/50 that he will be injured for another 15 days or that one of the other quartet becomes so. That means there is a high probability that we will see starters such as Panik, Adrianza, Arias, Blanco and Colvin -- possibly more than one at the same time.

I don't see that as a good situation for returning to the playoffs. That is why I believe a player such as Zobrist so valuable to the team. Zobrist has played every single position aside from being in the battery. No matter which position or positions the Giants suffer an injury in, Ben is a potential solution.

Let's suppose Pagan returns soon and the platoon of Panik and Scutaro becomes successful. The Giants would still have an All-Star level Swiss Army knife to fill in in case of injury or simply to give all the guys around the diamond a rest.

If the Giants become and remain fully healthy, Zobrist would be a wonderful luxury to have. If all the Giants' position starters don't become and remain healthy, Zobrist could be a life saver.

Zobrist won't come cheap in terms of players. Contractually, the Giants can control him for the next season and a third for about $10 million -- which would be a bargain for a player of Zobrist's stature. Ben is considered to be having a down year, but in reality, he's playing right at his career averages and has also been quite hot of late.

It is possible that next season neither Scutaro nor Panik will be ready to man the keystone. It is possible Pablo won't be re-signed. It is possible Michael Morse won't return. Zobrist would be a hedge against any of those eventualities.

Zobrist makes sense now, and he makes sense for next year. He might make sense after that, although he will be 35 by then. The Giants need him. The only question is how many players he will cost, and how promising they are.

Zobrist can't solve the bullpen problem, but it really isn't all that bad. No question it could benefit from fortification, but it's far from a disaster. Was the Giants' bullpen all that much better in 2010 or 2012? Certainly not a night and day difference.

But one problem the Giants have had since the beginning of the season has been a lack of depth. They were able to overcome it with a ton of home runs, two-out hits, and strings of hits early. But more and more, it has raised its ugly head as the season has gone on.

Ben Zobrist provides depth all by himself. He's under team control beyond just this season. The only question is, would he be worth the cost?

Boagie -- Some bullpen help in other areas would make our bullpen better, a legit closer would make us much much better.

Rog -- Very true. Casilla, Romo, Affelt, Lopez and Machi have all performed at high levels. The question is: how many of them will do so the rest of the season? Probably three or four of them. The bullpen could use fortification. A top closer would be ideal. A solid reliever might get the job done.

[klaiggeb]

To me, Blanco or Colvin is a no brainer. Seriously.

Blanco flat out CAN'T hit.

Seriously, .220 ain't gonna cut it.

His history has proven that the more he plays, the worse he gets.

Colvin certainly isn't going to set the world on fire, but he'll hit with some power and he'll hit better than .220!

We'll give up some defense for sure, but for me it's worth the trade,

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- To me, Blanco or Colvin is a no brainer. Seriously.

Blanco flat out CAN'T hit.

Seriously, .220 ain't gonna cut it.

Rog -- Both Gregor and Tyler have had very poor 2014 seasons. Gregor gets on base, has speed, and plays a nice defense. Colvin has more power. That sounds like advantage Gregor to me.

Right now the battle between the two is for the center field job. You yourself have stated that you're looking for speed and defense in that position. Which player offers more of those two abilities?

Boly -- His history has proven that the more he plays, the worse he gets.

Rog -- You'll have to show me some proof of this. It appears to me that his history says that he hits about the same when he plays more -- perhaps a little better.

In the three seasons in which he has 400 or more plate appearances, his OPS has been .676, 676 and .690. Those are slightly above his .674 career mark.

In the months in which he has had 100 or more plate appearances, his OPS have been .650, .668, .643, .666, .884 and .632. Most of those have been slightly below his career mark, but on average they're actually slightly higher.

Boly -- Colvin certainly isn't going to set the world on fire, but he'll hit with some power and he'll hit better than .220!

Rog -- What makes you think Tyler will hit much better than .220? He's hitting just .226 this season, and did you know his career average outside Coors Field is .218? What would make us think that he would hit much better than .220? In contrast, Blanco has a .254 career average.

I'm having a hard time following you on this, Boly.

Here's what I believe: The Giants need to acquire another good outfielder, preferably one who hits right-handed and can play center field. That protects them against injuries to Pagan, Morse and Belt, each of whom has proven to be injury-prone thus far in his career.

If the Giants need a corner outfielder, one can make an argument for Colvin, although Blanco probably still grades out higher. If the argument is for center field, it's hard to argue that it's very close IMO.

It's certainly not a no-brainer as was stated.

Are you no longer looking for speed and defense, Boly? Gregor clearly has the advantage in each of those categories, and it's hard to make an argument that Tyler is enough (if any) better at the plate to overcome his deficits in the two categories you most seem to admire and require.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2373/blanco-colvin#ixzz38AHCstwh

[islandboagie]

Gotta agree with Rog here. Gregor has certainly not picked up the slack of losing Pagan, but right now he's the shinier of two turds.

And I really wish we would stop always blaming Blanco for our offensive struggles. Since joining the Giants Blanco has been a very good bench player, unfortunately he doesn't make a good long term solution in the lineup, but how many bench players do? There's a reason they're bench players.

The blame should rest primarily on the shoulders of the starting players who should be producing and aren't.

Losing a 9 game lead is inexcusable. These guys needed to step up in the absence of Pagan and didn't. In fact, on the whole 25 man roster only ONE guy stepped up. Care to guess who that guy was, Boly?

[Rog]

Boagie -- In fact, on the whole 25 man roster only ONE guy stepped up. Care to guess who that guy was, Boly?

Rog -- Ehire Adrianza?

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2373/blanco-colvin#ixzz38AZwcXrN

[klaiggeb]

Rog--
Boly -- His history has proven that the more he plays, the worse he gets.

Rog -- You'll have to show me some proof of this. It appears to me that his history says that he hits about the same when he plays more -- perhaps a little better.

---boly says---

Each of the last 2 years, when pressed into service to play a lot... his hitting goes down, down, down... hot streak that doesn't last too long, then he's back to the .230 hitter he's always been

boly

[klaiggeb]

Boagie---Gotta agree with Rog here. Gregor has certainly not picked up the slack of losing Pagan, but right now he's the shinier of two turds.

---boly says---

Oh, Boagie! Do I disagree here!

Prior to the break he was an out looking for a place to happen.

I think you've been fooled by his "resurgence" as of late.

Go back and look up his numbers since Pagan went down. Take out the last 4 games or so and they are flat out TERRIBLE!!!!!

I lost count of the number of times in late June, early July when Krukow and Kuiper were saying that he had to step up his game.

These few since the All Farce break simply aren't enough for me.

We've seen this little streaks before.


And to be sure, Gregor is NOT the sole one to blame.

I understand that.

But... BUT... His INABILITY to get on base, get key hits and score runs has been a HUGE reason we tanked so badly.

Not to excuse Pablo still wandering around, and Morse' slump and the rest... but Blanco WAS NEEDED to be the one hole hitter, not the 8 hole guy, and he failed miserably.

boly

[islandboagie]

I dont disagree that Blanco has been bad this year. I'm just not seeing where Colvin has been better.

Your argument that Blanco strings together 4 or 5 good games and then comes back down to earth is entirely true, but Colvin can't even string together 2 good games. Other than his first start with the Giants he's produced almost nothing.

[Rog]

No question Gregor has floundered since Angel went out. But we may be making too much of a scapegoat out of him. Even if we take Gregor's numbers out of the equation, the Giants as a team have been horrible with the bat.



They're doing a little better of late, and Gregor himself is helping a bit. He's 8 for 21 with three walks and three strikeouts.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie--I dont disagree that Blanco has been bad this year. I'm just not seeing where Colvin has been better.

---boly says---

The difference is that Colvin plays/starts infrequently. Blanco is out there every day.

Now I'm not saying that Colvin would prove to be much better, all I'm saying is I'd like to roll his dice for a while rather than what we've seen from Blanco.


Of course all that was BEFORE Blanco woke up. Now my point is entirely moot.

boly

[islandboagie]

Colvin has 124 at-bats, I think that's sufficient time to try to steal the job from Blanco.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie--Colvin has 124 at-bats, I think that's sufficient time to try to steal the job from Blanco.

---boly says---

Agreed, Boagie, but in the last month, his ab's have been inconsistant. One here... one there.

Most of those AB's came much earlier.

boly

[rxmeister]

Colvin is out there tonight and not Blanco. Let's see how it goes.

[Rog]

Tyler Colvin hit .386 in his first 26 at bats as a Giant. Despite being left in the starting lineup for another week thereafter, he has hit just .181 since. I'll have to look it up, but since when those 26 at bats ended, I'll bet Gregor Blanco has outhit Tyler by quite a bit.

[Rog]

Yeah, over the two-month period during which Colvin has hit .181, Blanco has batted .261. For the past two months and four days, Gregor has outhit the guy we want to start over him by 80 points. 80 points, plus be a much better fielder and base runner.

[klaiggeb]

Rog--Yeah, over the two-month period during which Colvin has hit .181, Blanco has batted .261. For the past two months and four days, Gregor has outhit the guy we want to start over

---boly says---

Well, Rog, I guess you're just going to IGNORE the facts here.

During that period you quote, answer the following questions,, please.

1-How many TOTAL at bats did each player get?

Answer---Big, Big, BIG edge, Blanco

2-How many starts did each player get?


Answer; Big, Big, BIG edge, Blanco.


With all due respect, THAT, those lack of consistant at bats and starts, skews the facts and statistics, and makes any argument using those numbers moot.

Sorry.

And THAT'S why I have so many problems with JUST looking at numbers.


Reminds me of a Giant game I went to about 8 years back.

They were playing the A's, I think, and it was August.


Starting catcher for the A's was hitting in the .230's or so, with 300 + at bats at the time.

Jackass behind me is reading the program and sees this bench guy who hardly EVER plays, hitting something like .350, with maybe 45 at bats.

He looks at the starting line up and throws his hands up in exasperation. "Why is that idiot starting when we have a .350 hitter ready to play? What's wrong with the manager? What the heck is he thinking!!!!"

I'm thinking of turning around and asking the moron if he knows ANYTHING about the game, considering telling him to STOP looking just at numbers and to consider the at bats, that 45 or so ISN'T an indicator of ANYTHING, but out of deference to my wife, and NOT wishing to start an altercation to get me thrown out of AT & T, I keep my mouth shut.


Your citing any 80 point difference here, Rog, is the exact same kind of argument.

Right now, Blanco's hot, so he has to start.

But if he wasn't, if he was his normal .230 self, it's still a no brainer for me.

Colvin.

Bigger upside at the plate.

boly

[islandboagie]

I agree with the fan you were sitting next to. Why not give the bench player a shot when he's batting .350 while the starter is hitting .230?

I don't think this analogy proved your point, in fact I think it proved the Blanco supporter's point. Blanco has been better, that's not skewed numbers, that's a fact. I'll put it bluntly, Boly, Colvin looks bad at the plate. He's just flipping the bat out there, even in count leverage situations, I don't want to see it anymore, I get the feeling Bochy doesn't either.

[Rog]

Boly -- Well, Rog, I guess you're just going to IGNORE the facts here.



During that period you quote, answer the following questions,, please.



1-How many TOTAL at bats did each player get?



Answer---Big, Big, BIG edge, Blanco



2-How many starts did each player get?





Answer; Big, Big, BIG edge, Blanco.





With all due respect, THAT, those lack of consistant at bats and starts, skews the facts and statistics, and makes any argument using those numbers moot.



Sorry.



And THAT'S why I have so many problems with JUST looking at numbers.



Rog -- I also have a problem with just looking at numbers. It's how one analyzes them that makes the difference. Also, knowing where to look and what is important.



Ironic, isn't it, that you are using numbers to show how simply looking at the numbers is a bad thing.



What is important to me here is that Gregor has been a much better hitter away from Coors Field over his career than Tyler has been. And while the difference may have ebbed a bit, it still seems to be there.



Plus, Gregor can run rings around Tyler on the bases and in the field.



Hey, neither player has been worth much this season. But of the two, I'd rather have Gregor. Maybe I'd go with Tyler when playing in Coors Field.

[Rog]

Boly -- Your citing any 80 point difference here, Rog, is the exact same kind of argument.

Right now, Blanco's hot, so he has to start.

But if he wasn't, if he was his normal .230 self, it's still a no brainer for me.

Colvin.

Bigger upside at the plate.

Rog -- Gregor has been much better than a .230 hitter over his career. On the other hand, Tyler hasn't been much better than that outside Coors Field.

[Rog]

Outside Coors Field, Gregor Blanco has hit .254. Outside Coors Field, Tyler Colvin has hit .218.

[Rog]

It's true that Blanco has gotten more playing time and more at bats than Colvin. It is also true that since May 21st, he has earned them over Tyler. On May 21st, it was Tyler -- not Gregor -- who was playing every day. But Tyler didn't hit,and with Gregor's being the better all-around player, it wouldn't have been fair to give the more at bats to Tyler instead of Gregor. That became especially true when Pagan went down, and playing center field became a bigger part of the equation.

The good players battle through getting few at bats and become starters. The mediocre players battle through them and become 4th outfielders (Blanco. The poor ones battle but become 5th outfielders (Colvin) or Four A players (Juan Perez).

[rxmeister]

Watching Tyler Colvin play in Chicago and Colorado, I'm very disappointed at how he's played this year. I wanted him over Blanco in CF, but not a question in my mind that Blanco has outplayed him badly the last couple of weeks.

[Rog]

Mark -- Watching Tyler Colvin play in Chicago and Colorado, I'm very disappointed at how he's played this year. I wanted him over Blanco in CF, but not a question in my mind that Blanco has outplayed him badly the last couple of weeks.

Rog -- On a night when nobody else hit much, Tyler had two hits tonight. I still like Blanco better though, although talking about a 4th outfielder (Blanco) and a 5th outfielder here (Colvin). Colvin just strikes out too much to be a very good hitter. He's struck out once every 3.4 at bats over his career.

As a hitter, he's basically Adam Dunn with far less power and an inability to draw walks. In other words, a poor hitter. Outside Coors Field, he's basically a .220 hitter.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2373/blanco-colvin#ixzz38YJaNZXL