Post by Rog on May 28, 2014 23:23:47 GMT -5
Emilio Bonafacio stole second base in the first inning today with Junior Lake at the plate and a one and two count. Should he have gone?
On the one hand, Bonafacio is a good base stealer. Tim Lincecum is easy to steal against. Given the count, a secondary pitch seemed likely. Sounds like a great time to steal, doesn't it? And of course, Bonafacio did so successfully, although a good throw from Hector Sanchez would likely have nailed him.
But should he have gone? Let's look at a couple of points:
. First, Lincecum has been having problems getting the ball over consistently in the first innings of games. If a guy has struggled, do you want to take the chance of giving him an easy out?
At this point, I'm divided on whether to send him. But here is the point I believe should have kept Emilio at first base: Part of the reason for going was the likelihood of a secondary pitch with Lincecum ahead in the count. A slower pitch seemed especially likely, quite possibly a pitch in the dirt or at least down low, making it harder for Sanchez to throw.
As a base runner, Bonafacio can see on that play that Sanchez is caling for a high pitch. That means the pitch is almost certainly a fastball, is unlikely to be swung at and is likely to put Sanchez in good position to throw.
IMO if Bonafacio thought it was a good time to steal, he should have watched how Sanchez set up. Given that Sanchez was calling for a high fastball, Bonafacio should have held.
As mentioned, he did make it safely. But two batters later, Anthony Rizzo walked, which would have moved Bonafacio to second anyway. Bonafacio was successful in stealing second base -- but more IMO because Sanchez made a bad throw than because Bonafacio made a smart play. Don't we have to wonder why a good base stealer such as Bonafacio isn't thinking about these things?
As an aside, since beginning his career with 35 steals and 18 caught stealings, Emelio has stolen 106 bases while being caught only 22 times. So clearly he's making some good decisions, even if he didn't do so on this particular play.
On the one hand, Bonafacio is a good base stealer. Tim Lincecum is easy to steal against. Given the count, a secondary pitch seemed likely. Sounds like a great time to steal, doesn't it? And of course, Bonafacio did so successfully, although a good throw from Hector Sanchez would likely have nailed him.
But should he have gone? Let's look at a couple of points:
. First, Lincecum has been having problems getting the ball over consistently in the first innings of games. If a guy has struggled, do you want to take the chance of giving him an easy out?
At this point, I'm divided on whether to send him. But here is the point I believe should have kept Emilio at first base: Part of the reason for going was the likelihood of a secondary pitch with Lincecum ahead in the count. A slower pitch seemed especially likely, quite possibly a pitch in the dirt or at least down low, making it harder for Sanchez to throw.
As a base runner, Bonafacio can see on that play that Sanchez is caling for a high pitch. That means the pitch is almost certainly a fastball, is unlikely to be swung at and is likely to put Sanchez in good position to throw.
IMO if Bonafacio thought it was a good time to steal, he should have watched how Sanchez set up. Given that Sanchez was calling for a high fastball, Bonafacio should have held.
As mentioned, he did make it safely. But two batters later, Anthony Rizzo walked, which would have moved Bonafacio to second anyway. Bonafacio was successful in stealing second base -- but more IMO because Sanchez made a bad throw than because Bonafacio made a smart play. Don't we have to wonder why a good base stealer such as Bonafacio isn't thinking about these things?
As an aside, since beginning his career with 35 steals and 18 caught stealings, Emelio has stolen 106 bases while being caught only 22 times. So clearly he's making some good decisions, even if he didn't do so on this particular play.