Streaks

[Rog]

Pretty darn upsetting when the Giants scored just 12 runs in 7 games, wasn't it?

Well, guess what?  Last season the Cardinals had a streak where they scored only 11 runs in 7 games.  And another in which they scored only 10 runs in 6 games, being shut out in three of them.

Yet the Cardinals scored more runs than any other National League team.  By 77 runs no less.

Streaks happen.  Even to the best of teams.  We might benefit from remembering we're talking about a marathon here.  A marathon that's only about a 7th of the way over, yet for all our bitching, has the Giants in first place in the NL West -- ahead even of the profligate Dodgers.

[rxmeister]

Would've liked a bigger lead with Kershaw soon to return, but I'm not going to complain. I saw Buster Olney's power rankings this morning and he had us as the fourth best team in baseball, so I'll enjoy that today and hope we can finally sweep somebody, even though Ryan Vogelsong is pitching.

[Rog]

The Giants are kind of doing it with mirrors. How would we have felt had we entered the season knowing:

. Pablo Sandoval would get off to by far the worst start of his career.

. Ditto for Buster Posey.

. Marco Scutaro wouldn't be anywhere close to playing.

. No one on the bench would be hitting better than .161.

. Tim Lincecum's ERA would be 5.96.

. Ryan Vogelsong's ERA would be 7.71.

. Matt Cain's ERA would be 4.35?

We'd have expected the Giants to be in last place, wouldn't we? Yet here they are leading the NL West.

The reason? A bullpen as stingy as minor league meal money, and the Giants have shown to ability to come back as often as Abe Lincoln. The bullpen's 8-2 record illustrates both, and their six saves and 2.07 show a back end to go along with the front end and middle relief. The leaders have been Sergio Romo with the six saves, Santiago Casilla with a 0.68 ERA, Jean Machi at 0.84, and two southpaw set up men in Jeremy Afffeldt and Javier Lopez who have yet to give up a run.

The four set up men for Romo have yielded just two earned runs in 35.1 innings, the equivalent of nearly four full games). The Giants' three long relievers (Yusef Petit, David Huff and J.C. Guitierez) all have ERA of 3.86 or below.

The bullpen can't remain as good as it has been. The four set up men can't remain among the best in the world all season long. Romo himself has been tenuous. But the slumping starters and stars will as a group bounce back strongly. And who knows, maybe Marco Scutaro will eventually play in a game again.

The Giants aren't a great team. But they are a good one that has been surprisingly resiliant. They may not be able to hold on to win the division, but they are looking like a team with a legitimate shot at a wild card berth if not an outright winner.

And all this from a team whose performance we were decrying just a few days ago.

Willie Mays' favorite song is "What a difference a day makes." With this year's Giants, it can be as little as a sixth of an inning.

[rxmeister]

Felt bad for Vogelsong that it took all of one batter for Casilla to blow his great work, but all's well that ends well. I thought Bochy did a horrible job using his whole bench in the ninth, but Brandon Hicks bailed him out. Why pinch hit Blanco for Perez when all you're doing is bunting? Why save Hector Sanchez for the ninth spot when you're bringing him in anyway? If Hicks makes out there, Sanchez has to come in anyway, and you're using pitchers as pinch hitters the rest of the game. He should have pinch run Blanco for Posey and then pinch hit Sanchez for Perez and saved a player. But that's Bochy for you. Make questionable moves and have your talented team make you smell like a rose!

[Rog]

Mark -- Why pinch hit Blanco for Perez when all you're doing is bunting?

Rog -- I couldn't figure that one out either. I guess I can come up with three possible reasons, but I'm not sure they sway me much at all.

. Perhaps he felt Blanco is that much better a bunter than Perez or any pitcher he might use in that spot.

. Perhaps he felt Blanco had that much better chance to put pressure on the defense with his bunting, his ability to slug-bunt and his being closer to first base.

. Perhaps he felt there was a good chance he would have Blanco swinging away, as he did on the 1-0 count.

As I said, those reasons wouldn't have worked for me, but perhaps one or more of them is what Bochy was thinking.

Mark -- Why save Hector Sanchez for the ninth spot when you're bringing him in anyway? If Hicks makes out there, Sanchez has to come in anyway, and you're using pitchers as pinch hitters the rest of the game.

Rog -- The problem is that if he had pinch hit Sanchez for Hicks, Sanchez would likely have been walked, and the Giants would have had to rely on a pitcher (Bumgarner?) to hit in that spot.

Mark -- He should have pinch run Blanco for Posey and then pinch hit Sanchez for Perez and saved a player.

Rog -- That's an idea I like. One thing that may have discouraged him from doing so is Sanchez's recent penchant for hitting into the double play. But as we have discussed, while Sanchez isn't hitting well overall, he has been a fine late-inning hitter over the course of his career -- and especially of late.

I also thought it might have been a good idea not to pinch run for Buster until he was in scoring position. In that case I would have pinch hit Blanco for Perez to HIT, not bunt. I'm not sure I would have been a great advocate of bunting in that situation anyway. Although the Indians didn't do it, the sacrifice could have set things up to walk Pablo, who already had two hits.

I like your idea of pinch running Blanco for Buster and having Sanchez hit for Perez. One problem with that strategy though is that there was a fair possibility the inning would eventually fall on the shoulders of Adrianza, pinch hitting for the pitcher.

Or perhaps we should look even earlier in the game. I realize the Giants want to get Mike Morse's defense out of the lineup as early as is reasonable, but in a one-run game, how about leaving him in to await further developments?

If Vogelsong has to be relieved in the bottom of the 7th, a double switch is set up, saving a player. If Ryan finishes the 7th, as he did, then re-evaluate the situation after the bottom of the 7th.

Or how about simply putting Blanco into the game for Morse instead of replacing Mike with Perez?

There were a lot of different ways to go in that game, and I agree with you that Bochy didn't choose the best ones.

One item that might encourage Bruce to be more frugal in his use of players in the late innings of close games at home is that the bullpen has been so strong, that in a way, the longer the game goes, the more it favors the Giants. While it is nice to win in nine or ten innings, the chances are good that if necessary, the bullpen can get you into the 11th or 12th.

Of course, that also chews up the bullpen a little bit.

So many things to consider, and perhaps Bruce didn't do his best job of considering them. Perhaps the mistakes, if that is what they were, began when Bruce took out Morse in a situation that seemed to have later double switch potential. Perhaps it was in replacing him with Perez instead of Blanco.

Maybe Bruce got behind the 8-ball and just couldn't quite catch up.

Or maybe there are factors we don't know that led Bruce in the direction he went. Maybe Bruce would have liked to keep Morse in the game at least until the Giants developed a bigger lead or a double switch opportunity arose -- but wanted to get him out of there to give the previously-struggling Ryan Vogelsong the best chance to keep a shutout and finish the 7th inning.

Maybe he had plans for Blanco beyond merely bunting.

Or who knows? Maybe he just got caught with his pants down.

One thing yesterday's game likely proves: We get so upset when a manager makes a move we don't agree with, but even if we're right, the bad move doesn't lower the chance of winning to zero. A manager can make the "right" move and still lose, just as he can make the "wrong" move and still win. We're usually talking about pretty small increments of the chance of winning the game.



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[islandboagie]

I find it interesting that you question moves made by Bochy in a game where the player you would have benched a few weeks back hits a walk-off homerun.

[Rog]

Boagie -- I find it interesting that you question moves made by Bochy in a game where the player you would have benched a few weeks back hits a walk-off homerun.

Rog -- I think it is possible Mark would have reinstated Hicks by now. It's been a really rough start for Arias and Adrianza. Actually, if Hicks weren't around, I'd bet Arias would have put it together by now. He's streaky, but he's put it together before.

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[islandboagie]

This is all possible, but (does his best Rog impression) you have no way of knowing this!

I was just taking a jab at Mark. Mark is a logical and knowledgeable fan, so I'm sure he would make the appropriate moves if he were manager.

In the end I'm just defending Bochy. He's a damn good manager. I think the second post (written by you) in this thread demonstrates just that.

[Rog]

I think the effect of individual managerial decisions is overrated.

Let's suppose our team is a run behind, and the manager's decision costs us a 10% chance of scoring the tying run. (That would need to be a significant gaffe such as sending up a .200 hitter when a .300 hitter was available.)

If that tying run scores, our team has close to a 50/50 shot at winning. We'll lose about half the time even if we score that tying run. So the bottom line is that a total gaffe would cost about a 5% chance winning the game. If the manager were bad enough to make total gaffes in 20 games, he might cost his team one game on the season.

And remember, by total gaffes we're talking about the equivalent of pinch hitting a .200 hitter instead of a .300 hitter.

How a manager motivates his team is very likely a more important factor than the strategic choices he makes. It's fun for us to second guess, but even if we're right, we're talking about a slim increase or decrease in our team's chance of victory.

[rxmeister]

Boagie, I think a good manager thinks several moves ahead, and Bochy didn't do that there. He managed like extra innings wasn't an option. If the Giants were down a run I would have no problem there with any of his moves, but the game was tied. All's well that ends well I guess. As for Hicks, I continue to be very pleasantly surprised by his play. His power for a middle infielder is a true asset, and that low batting average is more than offset by his ability to get on base. His defense looked shaky early, but maybe it was a confidence issue as he's really looked good in the field lately. I give a lot of credit not to Bochy though, but to Brian Sabean. DK dismisses him often as a "garbage picker," but I don't know if it's him or his scouts, but nobody picks garbage like he does! Hicks, Yusmeiro Petit, JC Gutierrez, David Huff and even going further back, Ryan Vogelsong, Gregor Blanco, Joaquin Arias, and other assorted castoffs. This is an organization that really knows what they're doing, and that offsets the big money spent by organizations run by less competent people.

[klaiggeb]

Mark---As for Hicks, I continue to be very pleasantly surprised by his play. His power for a middle infielder is a true asset, and that low batting average is more than offset by his ability to get on base. His defense looked shaky early, but maybe it was a confidence issue as he's really looked good in the field lately. I give a lot of credit not to Bochy though, but to Brian Sabean. DK dismisses him often as a "garbage picker," but I don't know if it's him or his scouts, but nobody picks garbage like he does! Hicks, Yusmeiro Petit, JC Gutierrez, David Huff and even going further back, Ryan Vogelsong, Gregor Blanco, Joaquin Arias, and other assorted castoffs. This is an organization that really knows what they're doing, and that offsets the big money spent by organizations run by less competent people.


--boly says----

Mark you make a number of really, REALLY good points here.

1-Hicks-I, too, have been more than mildly surprised with his defense. A couple of weeks back, this guy looked like Curt Clank Blefray playing the infield, and now... wow! He's made all the routine plays (and those, quite smoothly), but also som spectacular ones! Still has huge holes in his swing, but DON'T make a fastball mistake to him; he can crush the ball

2-If Sabean is a 'garbage picker', he can pick garbage for me ANYTIME!

This was part of my post the other day. He doesn't just pick up players, he picks up guys with some talent AND character. I think those two things are at least as important as talent. Talent without character might help in the short run (Manny Rameriz) but in the long run, they are detrimental to a team, and ultimately cause un rest, and more moves to correct the move that got the guy in the first place.

boly

[islandboagie]

Mark, I agree, Hicks looks a lot better on defense now. I don't know if he's been working on it, or it was just a matter of getting comfortable. Perhaps a little of both. Or maybe he's just had a good run lately. In his minor league career he wasn't very good either. Either way, I hope his good fielding continues.

As for Sabean and the scouts, they've been great at finding good scrap heapers. But, as Rog pointed out this season, our bullpen has been our strength. I believe this is largely due to the fact that Bochy is very good at building and managing bullpens.

[donk33]

Apr 30, 2014 8:12:08 GMT -5 rxmeister said:

Boagie, I think a good manager thinks several moves ahead, and Bochy didn't do that there. He managed like extra innings wasn't an option. If the Giants were down a run I would have no problem there with any of his moves, but the game was tied. All's well that ends well I guess. As for Hicks, I continue to be very pleasantly surprised by his play. His power for a middle infielder is a true asset, and that low batting average is more than offset by his ability to get on base. His defense looked shaky early, but maybe it was a confidence issue as he's really looked good in the field lately. I give a lot of credit not to Bochy though, but to Brian Sabean. DK dismisses him often as a "garbage picker," but I don't know if it's him or his scouts, but nobody picks garbage like he does! Hicks, Yusmeiro Petit, JC Gutierrez, David Huff and even going further back, Ryan Vogelsong, Gregor Blanco, Joaquin Arias, and other assorted castoffs. This is an organization that really knows what they're doing, and that offsets the big money spent by organizations run by less competent people.

dk..I am not alone in calling Sabean a garbage picker as most of these players were cast offs from other teams...once in a while he gets some good from the garbage...but usually for short spans...and there have been many signings that never make it out of spring training......I still believe in the farm system as a way of delivering good players, but it starts off with good scouting and an amount of luck in drafting....I still cringe when the so called experts so often call Sabean's picks as an "over reach" ...but all organizations make mistakes in recognizing prospects....isn't it  amazing that two rings in 57 years can wipe away all the bad decisions that have been made along the path to success...I wonder if you would trade all the guys you mentioned for Nathan and Lariano???...or Wheeler??

[Rog]

dk..I am not alone in calling Sabean a garbage picker as most of these players were cast offs from other teams...

Rog -- That comment could be construed as a huge compliment. To the extent that it doesn't imply that is all he can do, it is a valid comment.

Don -- there have been many signings that never make it out of spring training......

Rog -- Again, this could be construed as an endorsement. That even Brian is wrong most of the time, shows just how difficult it is to find guys for, essentially, nothing. Brian also deserves credit for going outside the organization to pick up Tim Hudson and Mike Morse. Morse is kind of this year's Aubrey Huff.

Don -- it starts off with good scouting and an amount of luck in drafting....I still cringe when the so called experts so often call Sabean's picks as an "over reach"

Rog -- Drafting isn't nearly as easy as it might seem. Randy said earlier this year that Madison Bumgarner should have been expected to be one of the top 10 starters by this time in his, since Madison was drafted #10. We then saw how many pitchers drafted as high or higher than Bumgarner weren't even in the majors. We've seen that the guy drafted ahead of Tim Lincecum never made it above AAA, and has been out of baseball for over a year now.

The Giants have done a great job with their top-10 picks. After that, their draft has been more sketchy. Still, they have one of the better groups of pitching prospects around. (Heath Hembree earned his 5th save of the season last night, but gave up his first two runs of the season. As far as I know, Derek Law has yielded only one run this year.)

Different sport, but I remember close to three decades ago when ESPN drat "expert" Paul Zimmerman said of the 49ers draft, "I have no idea WHAT Bill Walsh is doing." What Walsh wound up doing was to have arguably the best draft in NFL history. The Giants haven't been the best drafters around, but they have also been far from the worst.

Randy criticized them for not being players in the international market for players, saying they hadn't signed any of the big international free agents. He's right. But they are said to have finished to the White Sox in the race for Jose Abreu, who has made arguably the biggest splash of any rookie so far this season. Abreu has been a monster at the plate.

Yet the experts mostly agreed that the Giants were right not to offer an extra year to Abreu, a question mark in the field even as a first baseman. The thinking was that by that final year, Abreu would hurt his team in the field and needed to play in the American League where he could DH toward the end of his contract.

At this point it looks as if the experts (and the Giants) were wrong, that Abreu may be so great that his ability to play in the field later in his career may not be a big enough issue to offset his great hitting.

When the experts don't agree with the Giants on drafted players, there really isn't much reason to cringe. It is usually better to wait a few years and see how those draft choices turn out. Sometimes a team goes with the experts and gets a bad player; other times they go away from the herd and get a bell cow.

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[Rog]

Don -- isn't it amazing that two rings in 57 years can wipe away all the bad decisions that have been made along the path to success...I wonder if you would trade all the guys you mentioned for Nathan and Lariano???...or Wheeler??

Rog -- Perhaps it is good to break down areas of performance in order to evaluate Brian (who overall is considered a good GM, but is a very polarizing figure in that regard). Here are my marks:

Trading -- B. Brian has been a good trader -- with the huge exception of the Pierzynski and Beltran trades. Even those trades might not be considered quite as horrible if the Giants had re-signed either player.

High priced free agents outside the organization -- D. This could be an F without the signing of Tim Hudson.

Lower priced free agents -- B. Aubrey Huff and Mike Morse have helped a lot.

"Garbage" free agents -- A. Few if any teams have shopped in the bargain basement as Sabean.

Drafting -- B. The Giants have done very, very well with their top-10 picks, which are the most important for most franchises. Beyond that, they have been spotty (as are most teams).

International signings -- F. The Giants have been late to the high-priced international party, and they have fared poorly with signees such as Angel Villalona.

Development -- C. The Giants have improved in this regard, but it's hard to call them a rousing success here.

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