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Post by klaiggeb on Apr 23, 2014 9:37:19 GMT -5
For a while, I liked out new line up, Pence and Belt alternating in the 2 hole, but I've changed my mind due to the absolute INEPTITUDE of the guy formerly known as FATSO.
I think that, for a while at least, Bochy needs to shake things up, and this is my suggestion;
Pagan
Crawford
Belt
Posey
Pence
Morse
Sandoval
2nd base
Don't know what Sandoval's problem is, don't care.
Pressing?
Thinking about his contract woes?
Don't care.
Righ now, he doesn't just stink, he sucks eleventeen on a 10 scale.
Time to try something different.
Even when he's normal I have been saying for a long time, DON'T HIT HIM 3RD!
Too slow, and backed by Posey and Morse, that's station-to-station baseball so no thanks.
If and WHEN he starts hitting, here's what I do.
Pagan
Pence
Belt
Posey
Sandoval
Morse
Crawford
lameoid playing 2nd base
Top 2 can run some, bottom 2 can run some, base cloggers/boppers 2-3-4-5-6
Of course, it'll never happend, but I think everyone, including the Giants realize that Scutaro ain't coming back this year.
boly
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Post by Rog on Apr 24, 2014 9:01:15 GMT -5
Boly -- If and WHEN he starts hitting, here's what I do. Pagan Pence Belt Posey Sandoval Morse Crawford lameoid playing 2nd base Top 2 can run some, bottom 2 can run some, base cloggers/boppers 2-3-4-5-6 Of course, it'll never happen Rog -- Why WOULDN'T it happen -- or at least something very close to it? Haven't the Giants already used a lineup similar to this in one or more games? Question: Why in the world would the Giants rest Pagan and Posey in the same game? Answer: So they can score a dozen runs. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2240/#ixzz2zoPhYTQN |
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Post by rxmeister on Apr 26, 2014 7:20:44 GMT -5
I don't like Crawford in the number two spot. He's arguably the worst hitter in the lineup, (not arguably if Scutaro ever returns) so why move him up where he'll get more atbats? It will also lead to him bunting when Pagan gets on base and I hate giving up outs like that. Don't like Pence there either, but I guess it's working now that he's heated up. I think Belt is best for that spot, although for some reason he's not walking as much. Love his power, but wouldn't mind him going the other way against that shift and even bunting for a hit.
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Post by klaiggeb on Apr 26, 2014 9:44:43 GMT -5
Mark---I don't like Crawford in the number two spot. He's arguably the worst hitter in the lineup, (not arguably if Scutaro ever returns) so why move him up where he'll get more atbats? It will also lead to him bunting when Pagan gets on base and I hate giving up outs like that. Don't like Pence there either, but I guess it's working now that he's heated up. I think Belt is best for that spot, although for some reason he's not walking as much. Love his power, but wouldn't mind him going the other way against that shift and even bunting for a hit.
---boly says--- Mark, I think my main point was "for a while." Not permanently
Belt has shown me in the last 2 games why I DON'T think he's ready for that 3 hole spot yet; yet.
Yet.
He might feel comfortable there, but since he's been installed in the 3 hole, he's chased more pitches up and out of the zone than we've seen from him in a long time.
Not good.
So, for the moment, I rearrange my line up to read like this:
Pagan
Belt
Pence
Posey
Morse
Pablo
Crawford
Lameoid playing 2nd base.
I see a different Crawford than you do, and I certainly don't see him as the worst in the line up.
That "honor" goes to whomever is playing 2nd base and is NOT named Marco.
Crawford is the Matt Cain of the lineup; terrible luck.
That guy hits more hard outs (over an extended period of time) than Pence or anyone else we've got.
He and Scutaro have about the same foot speed, and thought Scutaro is a much better hitter, bunter, H/R guy, Crawford would be okay.
And I would NOT have him bunting frequently just to move Pagan a long.
boly
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Post by Rog on Apr 26, 2014 12:28:46 GMT -5
Boly -- Belt has shown me in the last 2 games why I DON'T think he's ready for that 3 hole spot yet; yet. Yet. He might feel comfortable there, but since he's been installed in the 3 hole, he's chased more pitches up and out of the zone than we've seen from him in a long time. Rog -- Believe it or not, even after last night's disaster, Brandon Belt has his highest OPS this season while bating 3rd. Over his career, he's hit .307.356/.520/.876. That's in 220 plate appearances. Brandon is a streaky hitter. I don't think where he's hitting in the lineup has nearly as much to do with his results as whether he is hot or not. More and more, I'm beginning to lean toward basing the lineup on which hitters are hot and which are not. Overall though, I would probably hit him second. Gets on base and doesn't hit into double plays. This year though, he's hit more like a #3 or #4 hitter. Maybe #5 on a really good-hitting team. Hasn't gotten on base quite enough. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2240/#ixzz300wAboDp |
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Post by Rog on Apr 26, 2014 12:31:39 GMT -5
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Post by Rog on Apr 26, 2014 13:09:24 GMT -5
Boly -- Crawford is the Matt Cain of the lineup; terrible luck. That guy hits more hard outs (over an extended period of time) than Pence or anyone else we've got. Rog -- This brings up a couple of really good points and/or questions: . Matt's bad luck hasn't been that balls have fallen in against him; Matt's bad luck has been a lack of run support. Brandon's has been hitting the ball hard but not finding holes. . Is Brandon's issue something he can overcome, or does it come about because he hits the ball too consistently to the same spots and can be more effectively defended? By they way, you notice we're seeing more overshifts. That's stemmed in part from the increased statistical analysis of the game. When the showed the chart on Brandon Belt (even though it included only hits and not outs made), it was pretty clear why teams overshift him. Perhaps teams haven't used overshifts as often as they should have because they were afraid of looking bad when a hit resulted out of a ball that would have been an out with a more normal defense. Perhaps they had scouting reports, but not the depth of knowledge. Perhaps they were simply content to do things "by the book." But has it ever been harder to get a hit? Better-positioned, faster defenders with better arms make it tough. Especially with all the stuff the pitchers have. There are relievers today against whom it isn't easy just to put the ball in play. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2240?page=1#scrollTo=19778#ixzz3012GR5xh |
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Post by Rog on Apr 26, 2014 13:33:47 GMT -5
By the way, the primary difference in how Brandon Crawford is hitting this season is that he's hitting many more fly balls -- 41% compared to a career average of 32%. All other things being equal, more fly balls translates to more power but fewer hits. Concordantly, his ground ball percentage is down from 48% to 41%. He is striking out 2% more, and his line drive percentage is 1% below his career mark.
Based on all that, we would expect Brandon's batting average to be a little lower than his career numbers, while in reality he is hitting 21 points above his career mark. The reason? He's hitting nearly double his norm on fly balls -- .353 vs. .181 career. Some of that is likely due to his hitting the fly balls harder and lower. That more of his fly balls have been infield pop ups tends to be a contra incidator though.
In short, the numbers don't make it appear Brandon is hitting the ball a whole lot harder. One thing that may be helping is that he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone (and making less contact when he does so). His swinging strike rate is the highest of his career though, so he's not making as much contact overall. He's also not swinging as often (which has already resulted in 10 walks).
Brandon's Batting Average on Balls In Play this season is .327, 40 points above his carer .287 mark. Brandon's bad luck may have been more prevalent in other seasons than it has been this year. On balance it appears Brandon will need to hit the ball even harder if he is to keep his average up. It doesn't appear that Brandon's higher batting average is coming from better contact, although some of it is likely coming from hitting fewer pitches outside the strike zone.
Brandon is actually having a very nice year at the plate. I doubt he'll be at these same levels when the season ends. I'd like to be wrong, but the signs are against him -- especially if he keeps hitting in bad luck, which may or may not be the case as much this year (and probably isn't).
One thing seems certain. Brandon is no longer the .300 hitter he was when he came up. Amazingly, he was making more contact back then. He just wasn't making as much HARD contact.
And maybe hitting in even worse luck, as well.
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Post by donk33 on Apr 26, 2014 13:43:33 GMT -5
Boly -- Crawford is the Matt Cain of the lineup; terrible luck. That guy hits more hard outs (over an extended period of time) than Pence or anyone else we've got. Rog -- This brings up a couple of really good points and/or questions: . Matt's bad luck hasn't been that balls have fallen in against him; Matt's bad luck has been a lack of run support. Brandon's has been hitting the ball hard but not finding holes. . Is Brandon's issue something he can overcome, or does it come about because he hits the ball too consistently to the same spots and can be more effectively defended? By they way, you notice we're seeing more overshifts. That's stemmed in part from the increased statistical analysis of the game. When the showed the chart on Brandon Belt (even though it included only hits and not outs made), it was pretty clear why teams overshift him. Perhaps teams haven't used overshifts as often as they should have because they were afraid of looking bad when a hit resulted out of a ball that would have been an out with a more normal defense. Perhaps they had scouting reports, but not the depth of knowledge. Perhaps they were simply content to do things "by the book." But has it ever been harder to get a hit? Better-positioned, faster defenders with better arms make it tough. Especially with all the stuff the pitchers have. There are relievers today against whom it isn't easy just to put the ball in play. dk..Crawford has been hitting to all fields and most of the good plays against him have been on plays in the "holes"..not where people are playing him...his on base % is in the area where he could bat in the one or two spot....again, you slant your opinions to fit the view you have about modern baseball....the overshift wasn't popular in the Boudreau days because Ted Williams was the only one too stubborn to go against the shift...most batters would choke up and go to the open spots the shift gives him....the old defenses went with the book...the individual book teams had against every player...the scouts could chart the hitters and pitchers without using TV replays...and players were charted from their minor league days until they made the majors... Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2240?page=1#scrollTo=19778#ixzz3012GR5xh |
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Post by klaiggeb on Apr 27, 2014 9:37:22 GMT -5
Rog--Rog -- Believe it or not, even after last night's disaster, Brandon Belt has his highest OPS this season while bating 3rd. Over his career, he's hit .307.356/.520/.876. That's in 220 plate appearances.
---boly says---
Rog, sometimes you confuse me. You really do. I'm talking ONLY about his 3 recent appearances in the 3 hole; nothing more.
By my count, he's wiffed 5 or 6 times with RISP in something 12 at bats or so.
So what he's down PRIOR to the last 3 games is moot based upon what I said.
boly
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Post by Rog on Apr 28, 2014 9:01:29 GMT -5
Boly -- Rog, sometimes you confuse me. You really do. I'm talking ONLY about his 3 recent appearances in the 3 hole; nothing more. By my count, he's wiffed 5 or 6 times with RISP in something 12 at bats or so. So what he's down PRIOR to the last 3 games is moot based upon what I said. Rog -- I guess I was confusing two different points. As for right now, I wouldn't even have Brandon in the lineup -- except perhaps because that would be his best way to work himself out of his present funk. But I guess I misunderstood and felt you believed Brandon was hitting poorly BECAUSE he was batting third. And I don't believe that to be the case. As I mentioned yesterday, I'm beginning to think more and more that -- at least with the present streaky Giants hitters -- I would arrange the lineup not on who are the best hitters, but who is hitting as of that MOMENT. For instance, I agree with you that usually Belt should be hitting 2nd or 3rd, but right now he shouldn't be. I also agree with Mark that Brandon Crawford is one of the worst Giants hitters in the lineup. But when Brandon is hitting well, perhaps he SHOULDN'T be hitting 7th or 8th. Bottom line, Boly, I seem to agree with you and simply misunderstood what you were saying. No WONDER I confused you.  Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2240/#ixzz30Bmei6X7 |
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Post by donk33 on Apr 28, 2014 11:28:58 GMT -5
Boly -- Rog, sometimes you confuse me. You really do. I'm talking ONLY about his 3 recent appearances in the 3 hole; nothing more. By my count, he's wiffed 5 or 6 times with RISP in something 12 at bats or so. So what he's down PRIOR to the last 3 games is moot based upon what I said. Rog -- I guess I was confusing two different points. As for right now, I wouldn't even have Brandon in the lineup -- except perhaps because that would be his best way to work himself out of his present funk. But I guess I misunderstood and felt you believed Brandon was hitting poorly BECAUSE he was batting third. And I don't believe that to be the case. As I mentioned yesterday, I'm beginning to think more and more that -- at least with the present streaky Giants hitters -- I would arrange the lineup not on who are the best hitters, but who is hitting as of that MOMENT. For instance, I agree with you that usually Belt should be hitting 2nd or 3rd, but right now he shouldn't be. I also agree with Mark that Brandon Crawford is one of the worst Giants hitters in the lineup. But when Brandon is hitting well, perhaps he SHOULDN'T be hitting 7th or 8th. Bottom line, Boly, I seem to agree with you and simply misunderstood what you were saying. No WONDER I confused you. dk...and I remember when you laughed at me because I said they should move Posey down the lineup last year when he was in his big second half funk.....your advice only holds for other guys, not Posey...  Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2240/#ixzz30Bmei6X7 |
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Post by Rog on Apr 29, 2014 9:59:59 GMT -5
dk...and I remember when you laughed at me because I said they should move Posey down the lineup last year when he was in his big second half funk.....your advice only holds for other guys, not Posey... Rog -- Whatever you say, Don. Or to paraphrase Willie McCovey, that's right, Lon -- er Don. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2240/#ixzz30HtFoZdr |
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