Post by Rog on Mar 19, 2014 20:06:57 GMT -5
MLB.com has come out with its top 20 Giants prospects. Not really any big surprises I could see.
Perhaps a little insight into Gary Brown. It appears he has been resisting the hitting advice the Giants have been giving him.
There may be hope though. It was written that he did go along with the advice in June, hitting 8 home runs. Due to his heavy strikeouts, he still posted only a .278 batting average, although even with only modest power that would be enough if he could also equal the .336 on-base percentage he put up that month.
Here's the concern though. Gary followed his one good month up with only a .233 average in July and .210 in August.
It seems unlikely that most of Gary's horrible 2013 season at the plate (.231) was due to hitting in poor luck. His .283 Batting Average on Balls in Play was about 15 points below the major league average, but at league average BABIP his mark would still have been only .242. At his career average BABIP, he would have hit .262, which is beginning to get into respectable territory.
Problem is, very few hitters maintain their minor league BABIP when they reach the majors. Gary's career batting average in the minor leagues is .279 -- even after hitting a very impressive .336 at San Jose. Gary just hasn't hit above Class A, striking out 222 times in 1196 at bats in AA and AAA. In Fresno last season, he struck out 135 times, or almost once every four at bats.
Despite hit phenomenal speed, Gary has been thrown out on 32% of his 154 minor league steal attempts. And he's not improving. Last season he was thrown out 39% of the time. Another speedster center field prospect, Billy Hamilton of the Reds, has played only a fair number more games than Brown and stolen four times as many bases while being just over half as often (17%). Like Brown, Hamilton's biggest problem is that he's a leadoff hitter with troubles getting on base. That said, his minor league OBP is four points higher than Gary's.
Factor all this in, and we can see why Brown has in just two years fallen from the Giants' #1 prospect to #16. Two years ago many thought he would be the Giants' starting center fielder by now. Two years later the McCovey Chronicle's Grant Brisbee is writing of Brown, "His time with the Giants, however, is running out."
Two years ago only a few scouts were questioning Brown's lack of plate discipline. Now almost all of them are.
Brown isn't done though. Not yet. A year from now he could have moved from prospect to suspect (probably in another organization) or he could be the Giants' starting center fielder. Brown's ceiling hasn't fallen in, but his floor has certainly caved.
I won't go into detail, but Joe Panik -- the Giants' first round pick a year after Brown and a guy I have been high on until this past season -- ranks only #14. Panik is viewed as having a decent floor as a utility infielder (second base and shortstop), but there are now many more questions as to whether he will become a big league starter.
I myself am expecting a bounce back season from Panik (.257, .680 at AA Richmond). He's two years younger than Brown, and they will likely be teammates at Fresno.
Perhaps a little insight into Gary Brown. It appears he has been resisting the hitting advice the Giants have been giving him.
There may be hope though. It was written that he did go along with the advice in June, hitting 8 home runs. Due to his heavy strikeouts, he still posted only a .278 batting average, although even with only modest power that would be enough if he could also equal the .336 on-base percentage he put up that month.
Here's the concern though. Gary followed his one good month up with only a .233 average in July and .210 in August.
It seems unlikely that most of Gary's horrible 2013 season at the plate (.231) was due to hitting in poor luck. His .283 Batting Average on Balls in Play was about 15 points below the major league average, but at league average BABIP his mark would still have been only .242. At his career average BABIP, he would have hit .262, which is beginning to get into respectable territory.
Problem is, very few hitters maintain their minor league BABIP when they reach the majors. Gary's career batting average in the minor leagues is .279 -- even after hitting a very impressive .336 at San Jose. Gary just hasn't hit above Class A, striking out 222 times in 1196 at bats in AA and AAA. In Fresno last season, he struck out 135 times, or almost once every four at bats.
Despite hit phenomenal speed, Gary has been thrown out on 32% of his 154 minor league steal attempts. And he's not improving. Last season he was thrown out 39% of the time. Another speedster center field prospect, Billy Hamilton of the Reds, has played only a fair number more games than Brown and stolen four times as many bases while being just over half as often (17%). Like Brown, Hamilton's biggest problem is that he's a leadoff hitter with troubles getting on base. That said, his minor league OBP is four points higher than Gary's.
Factor all this in, and we can see why Brown has in just two years fallen from the Giants' #1 prospect to #16. Two years ago many thought he would be the Giants' starting center fielder by now. Two years later the McCovey Chronicle's Grant Brisbee is writing of Brown, "His time with the Giants, however, is running out."
Two years ago only a few scouts were questioning Brown's lack of plate discipline. Now almost all of them are.
Brown isn't done though. Not yet. A year from now he could have moved from prospect to suspect (probably in another organization) or he could be the Giants' starting center fielder. Brown's ceiling hasn't fallen in, but his floor has certainly caved.
I won't go into detail, but Joe Panik -- the Giants' first round pick a year after Brown and a guy I have been high on until this past season -- ranks only #14. Panik is viewed as having a decent floor as a utility infielder (second base and shortstop), but there are now many more questions as to whether he will become a big league starter.
I myself am expecting a bounce back season from Panik (.257, .680 at AA Richmond). He's two years younger than Brown, and they will likely be teammates at Fresno.
