Baseball Prospectus' scouting report on Gary Brown

[Rog]

From Baseball Prospectus:

OF Gary Brown: From first-division center fielder of the future in 2011 to below-average bench outfielder in 2013, Brown has experienced quite the drop in status since exploding on the scene in his full-season debut. The inability to make adjustments against quality arms has been his biggest weakness, and it’s highly unlikely that his bat improves to the point where it plays as a major-league regular. But the defensive profile and speed should be enough to carry him to the highest level, which would be seen as a developmental success story for most players; however, when you have the physical tools of Brown—a former first round pick—the bar for success is set much higher than most players.


The good news is that author Jason Parks expects Gary to be up at some point this season. 

[Rog]

From Marc Hulet of Fan Graphs:

Brown has been a bit of a disappointment since going 24th overall in the 2010 amateur draft he has some tools that should allow him to be a useful big league contributor. The speedy outfielder plays an above-average centre field with solid arm strength and plus speed. Unfortunately, his bat projects as fringe-average. Despite having four years of pro experience under his belt, Brown has a lot of work to do at the plate and needs to get on base on a more regular basis to take advantage of his stronger tool.

Very similar to Baseball Prospectus' report. Sorry they aren't longer, but Brown didn't make the Top 10 in either publication.

[Rog]

From Chris Crawford of MLB Draft Insider. He has a top 14, so Gary made his list at #12 (ahead of pitcher Chris Stratton, also a former first round pick, so not bad). Crawford also has Brown's being up this season. Please not that the ratings at the end are on the usual 20-80 scouting scale.



Rank Name Position Bats/Throws Height/Weight
12 Gary Brown OF R/R 6-1 / 190
Boy, where to start. The industry has always been higher on Brown than I have been, but I certainly didn’t expect the disaster that was the 2013 season. Almost nothing went right for the center-fielder, and he doesn’t have the bat speed, ability to make adjustments, and frankly talent with the bat to be anything more than a fourth outfielder. Yes, he has plus-plus speed and can get to pretty much anything in center, and yes, he’s good enough defensively to make a big-league roster. But based on what we saw in 2013, the dream of him being a top-of-the-order hitter should essentially be dead.

HIT 45-45

POWER 40-40

SPEED 70-70

GLOVE 60-60

ARM 50-50

ETA: 2014

[Rog]

Very nice report by Chris Crawford on Andrew Susac. At #2 among Giants prospects, this is the highest I have seen Susac rated.


Rank Name Position Bats/Throws Height/Weight
2 Andrew Susac C R/R 6-2 / 210
I’m really not sure why Susac isn’t discussed as one of the best catching prospects in baseball, but he should be. Though he doesn’t possess upper-echelon bat speed, Susac has a strong lower-half and gets rotational through his swing, which leads to plus to above-average power to all parts of the field. There’s some swing-and-miss in his game, but he makes up for the fringe-average hit tool by working counts into his favor and he should be able to get on base enough to justify playing everyday.

Even if the hit tool doesn’t reach average, Susac would have a chance to be a starting backstop thanks to the improvement in his defense. He’s a well-below-average athlete, but his receiving skills get better each year, and a quick release and above-average arm give him the chance to throw out all but the fleetest of foot runners.

He’s blocked by that one guy, but Susac profiles as an above-average regular, and if the Giants do decide to move Posey to first at some point Susac should be the replacement.

HIT 40-50

POWER 50-60

SPEED 30-30

GLOVE 45-55

ARM 55-55

ETA: 2015

[rxmeister]

Susac and Brown are certainly going in different directions, as Susac is improving every year while Brown is regressing. I don't think Brown gets called up this year because of Juan Perez, but I sure hope last year was a wake up call for him and he worked hard this offseason. I expect Susac to be Posey's backup in 2015 and the starter in 2016 with Buster playing somewhere else.

[Rog]

Mark -- I expect Susac to be Posey's backup in 2015 and the starter in 2016 with Buster playing somewhere else.

Rog -- Intriguing thought which has a logical time frame. I suspect the Giants will have a hard time getting Buster to move by then though (not that he necessarily has the final say). He continues to strongly say he's a catcher.

Another issue may materialize when he does move to a new position. It appears Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval will be established at the corner infield spots. Buster's lack of foot speed may prevent his playing second base. That would leave left field, and the outfield at AT&T is really big.

Lots can happen between now and then of course, particularly if Buster's move comes later than 2016. But the potential is there for the Giants to have too many corner-type players for too few positions. A move to left field by Belt could clear the logjam, but his defensive value seems to be far higher at first base.

This is a good potential problem to have, of course, but the future result could bear watching.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2193/baseball-prospectus-scouting-report-brown##ixzz2u0YkHH6t

[Rog]

Here are Bleacher Report's recent comments on Brown:

Outfielder Gary Brown faces a make-or-break situation this spring for the Giants. When Brown was drafted, the Giants considered him an everyday outfield option with the potential to hit for power. However, since then, Brown has disappointed in his minor league career.

Brown struggled in Triple-A in 2013, posting a mediocre .231/.286/.375 line. However, it wasn't too long ago (2011) when Brown took the minors by storm with a .336/.407/.519 line in San Jose.

Brown has the tools to be an MLB-caliber, leadoff-type hitter. The Giants currently have an MLB-caliber, leadoff-type hitter with Pagan. But again, the Giants need depth, and if Brown can turn the potential at the plate into real results, the Giants' brass might move the prospect up through the system.

Brown has a lot to prove, and if he can truly break out this spring and remind the Giants of his bright future, he could make some waves in the coming months.


I think Brown will have a hard time getting on base enough to be a leadoff hitter, but perhaps he might wind up batting 7th and being something of a 2nd leadoff hitter. That can have some value. Either way, Gary will need to become more efficient at stealing bases. He's certainly got the speed to do so, but perhaps not yet the instincts.

Don't get me wrong. Brown has the potential to help the Giants a LOT. He could move Pagan to left field, which would likely help the defense at both positions. If he could lead off, Pagan might have value lower in the order, where he could provide a modicum of power and himself become a second leadoff man.

One "ability" Gary does have is being able to get on base via the hit by pitch (52 times in the past three seasons). He has a bit of pop (95 doubles the past three years). If he could just walk more (6.6% and 5.4% walk rate the past two seasons) and strike out less (22.2% last season), he could become an asset. His speed and glove have been of major league quality since the day he was drafted.

[rxmeister]

Giants haven't re- signed Pablo to that extension yet, so third base is still a possibility. I'm hoping Pablo plays well and gets it, and the Giants can worry about 2016 when it gets here. Long range plans have a way of working themselves out.

[Rog]

Teams are (finally) beginning to get the idea of locking up their key players early. The Giants themselves have a great example in Madison Bumgarner, who signed for the major league equivalent of stale peanuts. The problem from a team standpoint is that as this strategy becomes more accepted and popular, the steal deals seemingly aren't available any more.

Having done so before here, I won't take the time to compare the contracts of Bumgarner and Buster Posey, but suffice it to say the while the Giants got a fair deal with the then-reigning NL MVP, they figuratively signed Madison at an early-morning garage sale at his farm.

Belt and Sandoval won't come so cheaply. Which means the Giants will have hundreds of millions tied up in Posey, Pence, Brandon and Pablo if they sign the latter two long-term.

The saving grace should be the low-priced young starting pitchers on their way. Some of those inexpensive guys will ultimately replace some of the $55 million or so per year being paid to the Giants' other four starters aside from Bumgarner.

It's not usually great signing strategy to tie up the big bucks in relievers, which might mean the departure of Sergio Romo within the next year. The Giants aren't nearly as blessed with position prospects as pitchers, so most of the saved money will likely go to second base and left field. Hopefully the Giants will be wise enough to use some of it to lock up the next wave of young pitching talent.

It should be noted that despite our cries about the Dodgers (who could indeed prove to be an exception), winning is less tied to salary than at any time in our lives. The key now is to develop players internally and lock them up early. There are teams out there with limited resources that are doing quite well, thank you. A study has shown that 80% of variation in wins between franchises can't be explained by payroll.

One of the reasons -- this should be a wake up call for you, Randy -- teams are doing more with less is that teams are more and more employing snalytics to gain advantages. The teams doing so the most are tending to fare well.

Here is Angels GM Jerry Dipoto's take: "The analytics department is (now) baseball ops." Sabermetrics is now part of everything the Angels' front office does, including player development.

Teams are trying new things. And that is probably the primary reason franchise success is related so little to payroll. The Angels, for example, are spending more money on player development. The feeling is becoming that the same scouts see the same players, so it is becoming more and more important to supplement scouting with analytics and with improved player development.

Baseball is changing, and so are many of its executives, writers and fans. Others are being left behind. If we don't know a lot more about baseball than we did even a decade ago, we're falling behind. That's in my opinion, but also many others, including more and more of baseball's executives.