Post by Rog on Feb 7, 2014 11:53:16 GMT -5
Not much of anything was directly going on for the Giants yesterday. Still, it was probably their worst day of the off-season.
The reason? Freddie Freeman.
Now, Freddie had a breakout year last season at the age of 23. He made the All-Star team and finished 5th in the MVP voting. He posted an .897 OPS, pushing him to .825 for his career. Yeah, he's a little unproven, but the 8/$135 contract he signed yesterday doesn't sound too bad -- until one considers that he still has three years before he becomes eligible for free agency. The Braves paid $135 million to lock up for an extra five years a player they already had locked up at a decent price for three more seasons.
Why was that so bad for the Giants? Two names: Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval.
Belt too had a breakout season in 2014, posting a .841 OPS despite playing in a pitchers' park. His career OPS is now almost .800 (.798). Belt was in his 25-year-old season, so he's two years older than Freeman. He has one more year than Freeman before Brandon can become a free agent. Still, just as Andre Ethier's 5/$85 million contract became something of a model for Hunter Pence's 5/$90 pact signed this winter, the template for Belt could now be sitting close to the 8/$135 Freeman just established.
And here is what is worse: The Giants haven't yet indicated that much interest in locking Brandon up now. Give him a similar improvement this year to last, and a year from now he might blow Freeman's contract of the water. Based on Freeman's results at the bargaining table, it would seem that an 8/$100 contract for Belt would be a bargain. A year from now, Brandon might be closer to Buster Posey's 9/$167 contract signed a year ago.
Freeman's 8/$135 isn't hugely far from Posey's contract, given that Buster's extra contract year was his first year of arbitration (and perhaps $10 million in salary -- Tim Lincecum made $9 million). So Freeman, who I don't think anyone would believe to be in Posey's category, is making perhaps $22 million less over 8 years than Buster is. Clearly the price of very good young players is rising.
How about Pablo Sandoval? Pablo will make just $8.25 million this season, his last before free agency. Pablo's career OPS of .827 is almost identical to that of Freeman. Pablo is three years older than Freeman and will be eligible for free agency a year from now. A good year from Pablo in 2014, and he probably would command about the same dollars as Freeman just did -- over two fewer years.
If the Giants can lock Pablo up right now for another 5/$75, that would probably be a good risk for the Giants. That would pay Pablo 6/$83 including this year's contract. I'm not sure the Giants WOULD do that right now, and I'm even less certain Pablo would make the deal at this time.
What I'm saying is that even if they act RIGHT NOW, Freeman's contract very likely puts the Giants in a position where they would have to spend over $200 million to lock up Belt through 2021 as Freeman is and to lock up Pablo through 2019. If they wait another year, they'll have more certainty -- but the price might exceed $250 for the pair.
Not much went on for the Giants yesterday. Except that they probably lost tens of millions.
The reason? Freddie Freeman.
Now, Freddie had a breakout year last season at the age of 23. He made the All-Star team and finished 5th in the MVP voting. He posted an .897 OPS, pushing him to .825 for his career. Yeah, he's a little unproven, but the 8/$135 contract he signed yesterday doesn't sound too bad -- until one considers that he still has three years before he becomes eligible for free agency. The Braves paid $135 million to lock up for an extra five years a player they already had locked up at a decent price for three more seasons.
Why was that so bad for the Giants? Two names: Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval.
Belt too had a breakout season in 2014, posting a .841 OPS despite playing in a pitchers' park. His career OPS is now almost .800 (.798). Belt was in his 25-year-old season, so he's two years older than Freeman. He has one more year than Freeman before Brandon can become a free agent. Still, just as Andre Ethier's 5/$85 million contract became something of a model for Hunter Pence's 5/$90 pact signed this winter, the template for Belt could now be sitting close to the 8/$135 Freeman just established.
And here is what is worse: The Giants haven't yet indicated that much interest in locking Brandon up now. Give him a similar improvement this year to last, and a year from now he might blow Freeman's contract of the water. Based on Freeman's results at the bargaining table, it would seem that an 8/$100 contract for Belt would be a bargain. A year from now, Brandon might be closer to Buster Posey's 9/$167 contract signed a year ago.
Freeman's 8/$135 isn't hugely far from Posey's contract, given that Buster's extra contract year was his first year of arbitration (and perhaps $10 million in salary -- Tim Lincecum made $9 million). So Freeman, who I don't think anyone would believe to be in Posey's category, is making perhaps $22 million less over 8 years than Buster is. Clearly the price of very good young players is rising.
How about Pablo Sandoval? Pablo will make just $8.25 million this season, his last before free agency. Pablo's career OPS of .827 is almost identical to that of Freeman. Pablo is three years older than Freeman and will be eligible for free agency a year from now. A good year from Pablo in 2014, and he probably would command about the same dollars as Freeman just did -- over two fewer years.
If the Giants can lock Pablo up right now for another 5/$75, that would probably be a good risk for the Giants. That would pay Pablo 6/$83 including this year's contract. I'm not sure the Giants WOULD do that right now, and I'm even less certain Pablo would make the deal at this time.
What I'm saying is that even if they act RIGHT NOW, Freeman's contract very likely puts the Giants in a position where they would have to spend over $200 million to lock up Belt through 2021 as Freeman is and to lock up Pablo through 2019. If they wait another year, they'll have more certainty -- but the price might exceed $250 for the pair.
Not much went on for the Giants yesterday. Except that they probably lost tens of millions.