SF v LA lineups

[sfgdood]

1B Belt v Gonzalez...advantage LA
2B Scutaro v Guerrero...advantage SF
3B Sandoval v Ramirez...advantage LA
SS Crawford v Gordon...advantage LA
LF Morse v Puig...advantage LA
CF Pagan v Kemp...advantage LA
RF Pence v Ethier...advantage SF
C Posey v Ellis...advantage SF

LA also has the advantage, I would say, in starting rotation and on the bench, while the Giants likely have a slightly better bullpen.

Bleak

[islandboagie]

Gonzalez is still a good 1st baseman, but with his career on the slow and steady decline i believe Brandon Belt might surpass him this year.


Kemp has a ton more talent than Pagan, but Kemp's injuries have diminished his abilities, and just recently it came out that Kemp might not be ready for opening day. If that's already being talked about then there's a big problem there. Right now Pagan gets centerfield.

We have multiple issues with your shortstop and 3rd base comparison.

First, Dee Gordon is not better than Brandon Crawford. Gordon's only major league talent is his speed.

Secondly, Gordon isn't even the starting shortstop, Hanley Ramirez is. Which still gives the Dodgers the advantage at SS.

But...

That makes Juan Uribe the starting 3rd baseman. I like Uribe, but he's not better than Sandoval.

[sfgdood]

If I were Don Mattingly, I would have Gordon at SS and Ramirez at 3rd and in that situation, I would say at best the Giants could claim a push at SS. Gordon may have only speed but Crawford can't hit and his glove hasn't been all that great (33 errors the last two seasons). I can't see Uribe being the full time starter at any position unless forced to by injury. Juan's a decent bench player but not much more than that at this stage in his career.

I don't think we can assume anything as far as injuries. For all we know, Pagan will rip a hammie again and be out longer than he was last year. All things being equal, LA has the better CFer.

[islandboagie]

Crawford might not put up good numbers, but it's within an acceptable level for a defensive position. Gordon, unless he improves offensively, is probably on his way out of baseball...and you'd start him over Uribe?

[klaiggeb]

Randy says--If I were Don Mattingly, I would have Gordon at SS and Ramirez at 3rd and in that situation, I would say at best the Giants could claim a push at SS. Gordon may have only speed but Crawford can't hit and his glove hasn't been all that great (33 errors the last two seasons). I can't see Uribe being the full time starter at any position unless forced to by injury. Juan's a decent bench player but not much more than that at this stage in his career.

---boly says---

I think I have to side with Boagie here, Randy.

Sandoval BIG TIME over Uribe, and Crawford over Gordon.

I disagree with you about two things concerning Crawford.

1- You say he can't hit, but until he had that hand injury, he was doing very well.

2-Secondly, you critized his glove by citing his errors. Yes, it was high, but I'll take HIS glove over Gordon's in a heartbeat. Most of those errors, as I recall, came early in the year.

He's steady, has good to very good range, and an accurate, very strong arm.

for what it's worth, he's my ranking.

1B-LA- but I suspect Boagie could be right on the mark about Belt surpassing Gonzalez this year

2B-SF Ellis is just a guy, and though he has more range than Marco, Marco does more things over all, for his team.

SS-Gordon/Crawford-SF Rameriz/Crawford-LA The problem with Hanley is at this point in his career, he's the modern day Ernie Banks; Lots of pop, very limited range.

3B-Uribe/Sandoval -SF -By a LOT. Rameriz/Sandoval-Push, or slight edge LA. All Rameriz has going for him is a very potent bat. Sandoval has softer hands, and better range.

LF-Morse/Crawford-Until one or the other proves he's healthy, I say push. If BOTH come back healthy, advantage SF
(Puig is a RF, you listed him in LF)

CF-IF Kemp's healthy, and it looks like he won't be to open the season, BIG advantage LA. IF...
Eithier/Pagan-Advantage SF

RF-Puig-Pence-Right now, I'll take Pence. Two or three years from now, maybe not. Puig has holes. Huge holes in his game. Plus, he's young, inexperienced, and prone to emotional mistakes both at the plate and in the field.

boly

[Rog]

The Dodgers had poor health in 2012; the Giants had poor health in 2013; maybe this is another year for bad health for the Dodgers. The Dodgers' depth isn't great.

I'm not positive I would take Belt over Gonzalez, but I like Belt's trend a lot better than Gonzalez's. I think Belt will be better.

The jury is out on Guerrero at second base for the Dodgers, but he is a converting shortstop who has shown pop with his bat. Marco is aging. I haven't researched Guerrero at all, but I think he might outplay Marco. I believe it was Bill James who recently said Marco had good range. I'm probably in between on Marco's range.

I clearly prefer Brandon Crawford over Dee Gordon, although I'm not quite as sold on Brandon's range as some here.

I guess it's hard to choose Pablo Sandoval over the potential superstar Hanley Ramirez. But it may come down to relative health. If Pablo stays healthy, I'm looking for a very big year.

Health is the key with Kemp -- and also Pagan, who I believe has played over 125 games only twice in his career. If healthy, Kemp is cleary better.

The Dodgers' pitching appears to be better than the Giants, who need a strong bounce back from the staff to be truly competitive with the Dodgers IMO.

I like Pagan over Ethier as a center fielder, mostly because Ethier isn't a good center fielder.

Morse over Crawford if both are healthy seems to me to be a good call, although I think Crawford has a better chance of remaining healthy.

Pence over Puig is a tough call. Pence is the more sure commodity, but Puig could be a superstar as early as, well, last season.

More than anything, I think the Giants' chances of catching the Dodgers depends on their pitching.

[klaiggeb]

--Rog-- Pence over Puig is a tough call. Pence is the more sure commodity, but Puig could be a superstar as early as, well, last season.

--boly says---

Rog, I said "right now." I'm not questioning Puig's potential. I'm not questioning his talent. He has a huge upside. HUGE!

But this year, right now, I'll take Pence.

boly

[Rog]

--Rog-- Pence over Puig is a tough call. Pence is the more sure commodity, but Puig could be a superstar as early as, well, last season.

--boly says---

Rog, I said "right now." I'm not questioning Puig's potential. I'm not questioning his talent. He has a huge upside. HUGE!

But this year, right now, I'll take Pence

Rog -- And you may well be right. Last season though, I would have taken Puig. Even though Yasiel played only 2/3rds of the season, his WAR was rated at 5.0 compared to 4.1 for Pence, who played all 162 games. As Boagie pointed out though, Puig did struggle in the second half after an amazing start.

The MLB Network picked Puig its #1 Right Fielder Right Now. Pence was something like #5. Maybe it was #8. I certainly see Hunter as being a good player, but not close to being a superstar, which Puig was for one (partial) season at least.

I would consider Puig the riskier of the two for this season, but I would take him over Pence if I were choosing right now for 2014 only. On a related topic, Hunter is making three times as much per season as Puig. If we factor money into the equation, it becomes an EASY call.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2184/sf-la-lineups#ixzz2sea3YglN

[klaiggeb]

Rog -- And you may well be right. Last season though, I would have taken Puig. Even though Yasiel played only 2/3rds of the season, his WAR was rated at 5.0 compared to 4.1 for Pence, who played all 162 games. As Boagie pointed out though, Puig did struggle in the second half after an amazing start.

---boly says---

I disagree, Rog, and for one very good reason; Puig was an airhead last year. He made soooooo many fielding and baserunning mistakes that Dodger fans lost count.

Now in the future he may very well turn out to be better than Pence if we base that thought on TALENT alone.

But the problem is, there is more to the game than "talent alone."

The guy shows almost zero baseball instincts. And some of the mistakes he makes are just down right stupid.

Down here behind the Blue Curtain we hear more than what ya'all do up there or across the country.

IF I'm a Dodger fan, those continual idiotic mistakes, that lack of instincts would scare the crap outta me!

His lack of instincts that Marvin Benard had in the field, and Calvin Murray had on the bases.

It's like, when is the next one coming?

Now costing a game in the season is one thing, but they are likely to happen in the post season, too.

And I haven't even considered/included the bozo things, the juvinile things he did at the plate, most of which we don't know about.

No. Right now, last year, give me Pence.

better attitude, better work ethich MUCH BETTER team player.

boly

Benard couldn't grasp the concept of "correct" angles to the ball.

Murray... well, he was often just "dead between the ears" on the bases.

[Rog]

Boly -- His lack of instincts that Marvin Benard had in the field, and Calvin Murray had on the bases.

Rog -- I don't remember Calvin on the bases all that much, but Baseball-Reference.com rates him as an average base runner. Their base running measurements don't appear very inclusive to me though. Fan Graphs shows him just above average, as well. Both show him slightly negative with the Giants.

As for Puig, he needs to learn to stop runnning the bases like it is Litle League. He doesn't seem to think anyone can throw him out, so he almost runs until he gets caught. His base running was estimated at costing 24 bases last season, which is about six runs and begins to add up.

Fielding-wise, though, he is well-ranked. Bill James' Baseball Annual rates him the #7 right fielder defensively via consensus. Bill himself, employed by the Red Sox, rated Puig #5. Baseball Information Systems, which sees every play, rated him #7. Peter Gammons isn't too crazy, and he ranked Puig #10.

Defensive metrics vary, since defense is hard to measure, but as Brian Kinney says, if they all agree, it's probably a good indication. Puig ranks highly in the metrics, primarily due to his rang and his arm.

I realize you didn't think he was very good in the field, Boly, but did you watch all his plays? Are you perhaps overreacting to a bad play or two?

Puig's character is way across the spectrum from Hunter Pence, but all objective indications are that Puig has thus far been the better player. Many projections have him coninuing to be so. Good grief, the guy just turned 23. He might even turn into a good base runner eventually.

Hunter Pence is an above average right fielder. In his best seasons, he's well above average. It seems unlikely that he'll have a season that is as good as Puig's 2013 season was on a pro-rated full season basis. Hunter's strike zone judgment is nearly as bad as Puig's, and it appears Yasiel can do more with balls in or close to the strike zone than Hunter can.

Coming off easily the best base stealing season of his career, Hunter is cleary the better base runner. Fielding is somewhat in the eye of the beholder, but the objective metrics favor Puig.

Even for 2014 I would rather have Puig. Extend the time frame out, and I'd rather have him by even more. Take into consideration their respective paychecks, and Yasiel looks to flat-out run away with the comparison.

As the Dodgers might say, now if he can just keep that running (away) under control.

Unless Puig falls flat on his face, at 7/$42 million, he's a steal. If he's an average player over the rest of his contract, he'll more than have earned it.

How good he'll become, we don't know. We do know that despite making a LOT of youthful mistakes in 2013, he was an excellent player.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2184/sf-la-lineups#ixzz2sgHHPqyZ

[klaiggeb]

--Rog--Defensive metrics vary, since defense is hard to measure, but as Brian Kinney says, if they all agree, it's probably a good indication. Puig ranks highly in the metrics, primarily due to his rang and his arm.

I realize you didn't think he was very good in the field, Boly, but did you watch all his plays? Are you perhaps overreacting to a bad play or two?

---boly says---

Rog, you misunderstood my post. I never said, and I hope I never implied he was a bad fielder. He isn't. He's very, very good.

Everything I addressed had to do with two things:

1-Him being an air head, which (2), leads him to do STUPID things.

I can't tell you how many articles there were in the paper down here about him being causual on fly balls, missing, or almost dropping them, and doing the same things on the bases and at the plate.

It's that AIRHEADEDNESS, if that's a word, which would bother me the most IF I were a Dodger fan.

Mattingly and the other Dodger coaches have continued to talk with him, but it seems to go in one ear, and out the other.

It's not the language barrier, either because they do it through an interpretor.

I have no patience in baseball for STUPID, or AIRHEAD.

Every player screws up from time-to-time. But to continue to make mistakes because you WON'T listen, or WON'T take coaching is where I draw the line.

boly

[Rog]

Boly -- Him being an air head, which (2), leads him to do STUPID things.

Rog -- I would try to teach him, and if that was unsuccessful, keep him and keep trying or trade him away. Does he help the team more than what we could trade him for. If so, keep teaching. If not, maximize what we can get for him in trade.

As for Puig, many have thought he was the sparkplug that began the Dodgers' marvelous mid-season win streak. I have shown why I disagree, but unless he became so disruptive as to mess up the rest of the team, I would keep him. He might become one of the best players in the game. He's pretty close to that level already.

As much as I LOVE Hunter Pence, based on what I know right now, I would trade him for Puig in a heartbeat.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2184/sf-la-lineups#ixzz2slVBHMbD

[klaiggeb]

Rog -- I would try to teach him, and if that was unsuccessful, keep him and keep trying or trade him away. Does he help the team more than what we could trade him for. If so, keep teaching. If not, maximize what we can get for him in trade.

As for Puig, many have thought he was the sparkplug that began the Dodgers' marvelous mid-season win streak. I have shown why I disagree, but unless he became so disruptive as to mess up the rest of the team, I would keep him. He might become one of the best players in the game. He's pretty close to that level already.

As much as I LOVE Hunter Pence, based on what I know right now, I would trade him for Puig in a heartbeat.

---boly says----

Rog, they did try, over-and-over again, to teach him. He either couldn't listen, or wouldn't listen.

Again, you took my post to a level/point I wasn't addressing.

My post was about "last season," and "right now," NOT would he might turn out to be.

Nothing more, nothing less.

I've conceeded that he has HUGE talent.

Then again, so have HUNDREDS, maybe thousands of players.

But between the ears... well, that makes all the difference in the world.

boly

[Rog]

I guess what I'm saying is that if I were the Dodgers, I would keep trying to teach him. If, say, at the end of this season he still shows no noticeable progress, then I'd look at dealing with him.



Hey, I'd work with his agent and try to set him up with a counselor of some type. I would point out to the agent that his future value could easily be impacted if he doesn't get his head on straight.



IMO baseball teams spend millions on players, but not the hundreds of thousands they should spend to help their players maintain. I suspect players would be highly skeptical, but that is why I would try to educate their agents.



I think teams should look at the much smaller salaries they pay to player procurement, development and maintenace of the expensive players and try to get the best personnel and organization they can get. I would think the returns might be excellent.



Call it research and development.

[allenreed]

Gordon over Crawford is just insane. All Gordon can do is run. If given the chance to play a full season, he would likely hit under .200 and make about 50 errors. I don't have a good feeling about Puig this year. They've seen him now, and they'll exploit his weaknesses. I don't think he will counteradjust very fast or handle the frustration very well. Kemp? Can he stay healthy? History says no. What worries me about the Dodgers is their pitching.