Bullpen forcast

[klaiggeb]

I'm not all that comfortable with our bullpen.

Sorry, but I'm not.

With that in mind, here are my forecasts;


Romo- I think he's career is on the decline. Will still be the closer, but I think by mid year, Bochy/Sabean will be looking to make a deal to get a better one. His velocity and his command are off considerably from what they were, and that concerns me.


Castilla- I look for a solid reboundn. He's healthy again, I think that's a good thing. "Could... could" take the closer's job of Bochy and Sabean can't make a deal for one at mid season.


Hembree- I liked what I saw from Heath, but I was not, repeat not impressed with his velocity. What happened to those big numbers we saw? Is this going to be Gerald Willams all over again with an exaggerated minor league gun? Good enough command, but I don't see great movement on his fastball. He needs an outpitch if he plans on becomming the closer


Affeldt-I see him on the continual decline, though I'm hoping for a FSY. I haven't been happy with Jeremy for a couple of years now. I see no reason that will change.


Lopez-I expect about the same with Javier. I thought he got off to a slow start in 2012, and I hope...hope that was just a fluke. He's getting up there in years, but his command is still very good.


Dunning- Had some moments, and has shown good command. Has a lot to prove, as far as I'm concerned. A real question mark


Kontos-I don't know what to think. He was soooo good in 2012, and stunk soooooo badly in 2013. Which George will show up? George of the Jungle? Or George of the Junk Yard?


Machi-I see so much potential... but then he goes into a funk. End of the pen guy. I like his durability, though. In the end, just a guy.


Petit-Last pitcher in the pen. Not sure if long relief is a good thing for him. Mota had great stuff and great command. Petit doesn't. A huge question mark.


Anyway, that's the way I see things for now.


Go ahead and rip my thoughts apart. No offense will be taken.

boly

[allenreed]

Romo did fall off, but he went from other worldly to merely outstanding. I don't think it's time to panic just yet.

Petit may be a starter by the AS break if Vogey doesn't pitch any better than last year.

I like Rosario better than Machi or Dunning.

By not re-signing Gaudin, I think the Giants are cutting off their nose to spite their face.

Casilla's an excellent set up guy. I'd just as soon keep him there if we could.

[allenreed]

Gaudin signed with the Phillies. I think the Giants will regret this.

[Rog]

Boly:

Romo- I think he's career is on the decline.

Rog -- Absolutely agree, as I pointed out recently. Allen makes a good point that Sergio's decline thus far has been from other-worldly to merely very good, but the trend is disturbing, especially for a slider (hard on arm) pitcher who has hit his 30's.

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[Rog]

Boly:

Castilla- I look for a solid reboundn. He's healthy again

Rog -- I'm glad you brought Santiago up again, Boly. I took another look and felt better about him than I had earlier when I predicted a decline. I still see a decline coming, but in part that's because he has no rebound to make. Or he's already made it.

The guy gave up just 39 hits in 50 innings last season. Just two home runs. His 25 walks were a bit high for him, but not alarming for a guy whose forte has never been his control.

His 38 strikeouts were a clear decline, but his 9.3% swinging strike rate was the same as in 2012. His fastball the past three seasons has been very steady at 93.6, 93.9 and 93.4 mph.

So how good HAS this guy been the past two seasons? Well, if we take away the tough period in 2012 in which he lost his closing job in part because of a blister, his combined ERA the past two seasons has been 1.85. In other words, when he's been healthy the past two seasons, he's been lights out.

Once his blister went away in 2012, he probably should have been given back his closer's job. His ERA the rest of the way was 1.82.

I think because he pitches very slowly and sometimes has a hard time throwing strikes, we underrate the guy. His 2.21 ERA as a Giant is even better than Sergio Romo's 2.21, yet I don't think even we Giants fans see him as being in quite the same class.

Yes, I think Santiago will decline. But the signs don't seem to indicate it will be a big decline.



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[klaiggeb]

Allen says---

Romo did fall off, but he went from other worldly to merely outstanding. I don't think it's time to panic just yet.

Petit may be a starter by the AS break if Vogey doesn't pitch any better than last year.

I like Rosario better than Machi or Dunning.

By not re-signing Gaudin, I think the Giants are cutting off their nose to spite their face.

Casilla's an excellent set up guy. I'd just as soon keep him there if we could.

---boly says---

Not panicing about Romo, Allen, merely stating what I see. Relievers make a lot of appearances, and that's not counting when he warms up and DOESN'T come in. Still good, but I still wonder; with all that wear and tear, is he still 'good enough?'

totally agree about Gaudin

I'm not as comfortable with Petit as you are. Then again, we're talking # 5 starter.

You can keep Rosario. Don't know what it is about him I don't trust. But, like Dunning, he has a lot to prove.

boly

[allenreed]

I'll bet the number of times Romo warmed up but didn't come in last year can be counted on two hands. Maybe one. I think he'll be plenty good enough.

Dunning needs to start eating. Maybe some of the weight Pablo lost can go to Dunning.

[Rog]

Allen -- I'll bet the number of times Romo warmed up but didn't come in last year can be counted on two hands. Maybe one.

Rog -- Would that be his pitching hand?


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[sfgdood]

Petit is out of options so unless he just gets shelled in ST, he's on the roster. Derek Law and some guy named Eric Cordier might get long looks in Scottsdale, according to Baggs. I expect Affeldt to be fine, as long as he stays away from the cutting board in his kitchen. Romo, Casilla, Lopez and Affeldt will man the back end of the bully. Petit is the long man. That leaves two spots open for competition between the following guys: Hembree, Kontos, Dunning, Rosario, Runzler, Machi, Law, Cordier and possibly a late signee named Jose DePaula who supposedly had a big arm before getting injured and missing the entire 2012 season.

[allenreed]

I thought DePaula and Cordier signed at the same time. Cordier is said to have above average velocity, and was said to be fielding ML offers from other clubs.

[islandboagie]

Boly- Affeldt-I see him on the continual decline, though I'm hoping for a FSY. I haven't been happy with Jeremy for a couple of years now. I see no reason that will change.

Boagie- Jeremy didn't have a good year last season, but he was great in 2012 posting a 2.70 ERA. He even made the heart of the Tigers order look silly in the World Series...so I'm not sure where you get the "couple of years."

Since joining the Giants Jeremy has had two sub par seasons, 2010 and 2013. Also Jeremy has had two oblique strains since joining the Giants...care to guess which seasons those were? That's right, 2010 and 2013. It seems to me there's significant evidence that Jeremy would return to form if he's healthy.