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Post by klaiggeb on Jan 21, 2014 14:06:02 GMT -5
On SF Gate, and some other places, 'Steamer' and other writers have speculated on how the Giant starters will fare this year.
I've seen two, so far, and though both were very different, both had Lincecum with an ERA in the high 3's.
For no reason other than "I want to believe it, therefore it will come true," these are my forcasts.
Cain 13-6 3.09 I'm not all that convinced that last year was just "too many innings in 2012." Then again, until last year, this guy has been nothing but quality.
Bumgarner 15-9 2.77 I think he's on a huge rise in his career. He hasn't even touched what he can be and likely will be this year.
Lincecum 11-11 4.16 Still re inventing himself. His lack of command will continue to hold him back
Hudson 10-7 4.05
Vogey 10-5 3.33
totals 59-38
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Post by klaiggeb on Jan 21, 2014 14:09:29 GMT -5
I never finished, and hit the wrong key.
On SF Gate, and some other places, 'Steamer' and other writers have speculated on how the Giant starters will fare this year.
I've seen two, so far, and though both were very different, both had Lincecum with an ERA in the high 3's.
For no reason other than "I want to believe it, therefore it will come true," these are my forcasts.
Cain 13-6 3.09 I'm not all that convinced that last year was just "too many innings in 2012." Then again, until last year, this guy has been nothing but quality.
Bumgarner 15-9 2.77 I think he's on a huge rise in his career. He hasn't even touched what he can be and likely will be this year.
Lincecum 11-11 4.16 Still re inventing himself. His lack of command will continue to hold him back
Hudson 10-7 4.05 It's my opinion that that ankel won't be really strong at the outset, but that he'll continue to get better and better as the year wears on. A better second half than the first.
Vogey 10-5 3.33 I'm a HUGE believer that when one feels he was embarassed, they come back with their jaw and mind set on proving the previous year was an abberition. Vogey's not an over the hill, 45 year old. Yeah, he's got a few years on him, but his determination, his sheer WILL, I believe, put him back to being a very, very capable pitcher.
totals 59-38
Feel free to hammer away at me.
boly
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Post by islandboagie on Jan 22, 2014 11:45:48 GMT -5
I think Lincecum will be a little better than you've projected, but we'll never agree on him.
One thing I will predict is more wins from our starting staff. With Pablo in shape, Belt solidifying himself as the #3 hitter...if everyone stays healthy I believe the Giants will score a ton of runs and give the starting pitchers an opportunity to win a lot of games.
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Post by klaiggeb on Jan 22, 2014 14:13:58 GMT -5
Boagie says--- the Giants will score a ton of runs and give the starting pitchers an opportunity to win a lot of games
---boly says---
I totally agree, Boagie. I just hope it will be enough. The dodgers have money out the wally-wally, and THAT concerns me much like it would if I were a fan of an AL east team when Steinbrenner was alive.
boly
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Post by Rog on Jan 22, 2014 15:43:06 GMT -5
There can be so much variation between seasons that almost anything can happen, but the Giants are likely playing for the Wild Card this season. If the Dodgers stay healthy, they will likely be quite a load. That certainly doesn't mean the Giants can't win the World Series, but it would make it considerably harder.
It would be important to be able to set up the rotation for the Wild Card playoff game, as it would be nice to have an ace (Bumgarner?) to pitch the Wild Card game, since it is an immediate elimination game. A top three plus a fourth starter is usually required for the postseason, and it would appear the Giants could provide that level of rotation depth.
Not as much depth is required in the postseason from the bullpen or the positions either, and that could help the Giants a bit as well.
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Post by allenreed on Jan 22, 2014 15:57:04 GMT -5
A little too early to concede the division. I guess I'm just not as big a Dodger believer as many here. They're far from flawless. Kershaw's great, but big contracts have a way of messing with guy's heads. Also lefties who pitch alot of innings early in their career have a way of flaming out early. Steve Avery, Ron Guidry, Dave McNally, Atlee,Vida, Koufax. Guys like Ryu and Puig, the league has seen them now. Uribe may go into the tank again. Not saying that it won't be a battle. But they aren't the 27 Yankees. Glad to see the Yankees get Tanaka.If it couldn't be the Giants.
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Post by Rog on Jan 22, 2014 16:43:47 GMT -5
It will be intriguing to see if Ryan Vogelsong can approach a 3.33 ERA. I thought he was the most consistent starter in baseball from the beginning of the 2011 season through three quarters of the way through 2012.
That said, it wasn't just last season that was tough for him. In his final 10 starts in 2012, his ERA was 6.75 -- or more than a run higher than the horrible 5.73 of last year.
Here is something that is just as bad. Over his last 29 starts, he has averaged just 5.18 innings per start. Even when Tim Lincecum suffered through such a horrible season in 2012, Tim averaged nearly a half inning more than that per outing.
In other words, after a year and three quarters of amazingly consistent pitching, Ryan has been just awful over his past 29 starts. I don't know this for fact, but I'm guessing Ryan's ERA over that period is at least half a run higher than any other pitcher with the same number of starts or more.
In order for Ryan's ERA to fall to 3.33, it would have to drop nearly 2 3/4 runs from his last 29 starts. If Tim Lincecum's ERA had dropped by that much last season, it would have fallen to 2.46.
Tim's ERA improved by close to 3/4th of a run last season. In order for Ryan's ERA to drop to 3.33 this year, it would need to decline nearly four times as much as Tim's did last year.
It's hard to believe that Ryan has been so bad for so long. Disturbing, isn't it?
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Post by rxmeister on Jan 24, 2014 11:32:43 GMT -5
I didn't want the Giants to re-sign Vogelsong because of his terrible 2013 and age, but combining his final starts of 2012 with his 2013 season gives you a totally inaccurate picture. You're totally omitting the 2012 post season where he was the hottest pitcher in baseball going 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA and 21 K's in 24 innings. I'm going to ignore those final 2012 starts because of that, and keep my fingers crossed that the 2013 bad season was just an aberration and not Ryan going over the hill. And I'm certainly not conceding the 2014 season to the Dodgers! How many times do we have to learn that pennants aren't won on paper? The last two champions on paper were the Toronto Blue Jays and the Florida Marlins. How did that work out?
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Post by Rog on Jan 24, 2014 22:55:35 GMT -5
Mark -- I didn't want the Giants to re-sign Vogelsong because of his terrible 2013 and age, but combining his final starts of 2012 with his 2013 season gives you a totally inaccurate picture. You're totally omitting the 2012 post season where he was the hottest pitcher in baseball going 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA and 21 K's in 24 innings. Rog -- I understand your point here, but if I were painting a totally inaccurate picture, I wouldn't paint it. You make a good point about Ryan's marvelous postseason. In his final three starts of the 2012 regular season and his four post-season starts, he was fabulous. So let's add the postsesaons in with his past 29 regular season starts. Ryan's ERA over his past 29 regular season starts and his past four post-season starts is 5.35 -- nearly as high as his 5.73 ERA of last season alone. In Ryan's final 10 regular season starts in 2012 and his four post-season starts, his ERA was 4.79. That's not to good either. The point I was making is that Ryan had troubles at the end of 2012 -- not just last season. Mark -- I'm going to ignore those final 2012 starts because of that, and keep my fingers crossed that the 2013 bad season was just an aberration and not Ryan going over the hill. Rog -- I wouldn't ignore those starts if I were you. Nor would I over-evaluate them in the overall context. I too am naturally hoping that Ryan will bounce back. I can think of worse options the Giants could have pursued. But in his last 33 starts including the end of the 2012 season, the 2012 postseason and his injury-riddled 2013 season, Ryan has posted a 5.35 ERA. That's worse then Tim Lincecum's 2012 season. In 2012, Tim made 33 starts and posted a 5.18 ERA over 186 innings. In Ryan's past 33 starts, he has posted a 5.35 ERA in 11 fewer innings. Ryan's ERA's being a sixth of a run higher than Tim's isn't a huge issue, but his third of an inning less per start begins to take on importance. And of course, if we throw Tim's 2012 post-season into the mix as we did with Ryan's, the difference becomes clearly bigger. The point I was making was that Ryan's difficulties actually began in late 2012. I do try to be fair, Mark. Who else have you heard say that for a season and three quarters Ryan was the most consistent starter in baseball. And you make a good point in that over his last three regular season starts in 2012 and the post-season of that year, he regained that consistency. But if we take out those 7 starts from Ryan's last 33, he was REALLY lousy. Then we're talking about a 6.75 ERA. There is no way I can find to look at Ryan Vogelsong over his past 33 starts and make him look very good. It hasn't been just his 19 starts last season. Mark -- And I'm certainly not conceding the 2014 season to the Dodgers! Rog -- Nor are any of us. But I have a feeling that the Dodgers are getting so many strong pieces that they can afford for half their team to have down seasons and still be highly competitive. There was a period of nearly half a season last year where the Dodgers were historically good. Frankly, I wish that if they have to exist at all, they were in another division. A different league wouldn't be too bad, either. Or perhaps they could simply play in the Pacific Coast League and win 75% of their games. NOW we're talking. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2175/predictions#ixzz2rNQlOFZb
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