Randy -- By the way, Smith has not yet shown he is capable of Romo-like numbers. His K/BB ratio has been impressive, but Romo has shown much better, freakish good numbers in that regard. In 2010 and 2011 combined, Sergio amassed 140 Ks and just 19 walks in 110 IP (that ratio has gone down some in the past two years with his increased responsibility as a closer). Also, Romo's ERA has been stellar in the last 4 years, posting marks of 2.18, 1.50, 1.79 and 2.54. I don't believe Smith has come close to that yet.
Rog -- Good points here. This could be a case of one pitcher who has been outstanding coming back to earth a bit as he ages and another coming of age in his early to mid 20's. It could also be a case of a star who was still very, very good last season in what might -- for him -- prove to be a down year and another pitcher who has shown enough to make him exciting but who has already had his career year.
The point was made that Smith's and Romo's numbers in three key categories were quite similar last season. Smith's sample was smaller, and his track record going back to previous seasons was far less impressive.
The point regarding Smith is that he made himself a very good prospect last season and was likely more attractive than any minor league pitcher the Giants have aside from Kyle Crick, who himself seems a likely 2015 or 2016 major league entry candidate.
As for Sergio, he has been excellent as a Giant, peaking in 2011 with single die numbers in a two-dice game. In 2011 batters swung and missed at 17.0% of his pitches. Last season that was down to (a still very impressive) 13.6%. His overall strike percentage dropped to (a still very impressive) 66.9% from a Maddux-like 71.1%. His strikeouts fell from an other-worldly 40% to 23%. That last figure shows a HUGE drop that was more than I expected.
Prior to last season, Sergio had 127 combined saves and holds with just 6 blown saves (a spectacular 95.5% success rate). Last season he had 38 saves with 5 blown saves (a still very impressive 88.4%).
Sergio's first-strike percentage of 70.0% was close to his 71.4% of 2011, but clearly he has begun to nibble a bit more. 47.5% of his pitches were in the strike zone in 2011. That dropped to 41.3% last season.
Two years ago Sergio was off the charts. Now he is high up on them. Two years ago he was above nose-bleed levels. Even though he remains high, his drop off remains considerable.
Sergio is under team control for just one more season. He's scheduled to make just $5.5 million this season. If Bill Walsh's philosophy of trading a guy a year early instead of a year last is a good one, I'd be sorely tempted to move Sergio if the Giants could get a lot for him. His eligibility to become a free agent a year from now could make that difficult.
I realize it is a bit of heresy to be open to trading Romo right after the season in which he proved himself to be a very good closer. But it was likely even more heretical to recommend trading Tim Lincecum two winters ago.
If Sergio has another good season, re-signing him after this season will prove quite expensive. Putting a team's money into its closer usually hasn't been a great strategy.
Would I give Sergio away? Absolutely not. In 2011 he was likely one of the top five relievers in the game. He's still in the top 15 or 20.
But it appears he is dropping off, and the slider is the number one disabled-list cause among pitchers. It's a really tough call, and the Giants are trying to IMPROVE their bullpen, not dilute it.
But a year or two from now we might look back and say that the ideal time to have traded Sergio was after the 2012 season. It might already be a year too late. But if Sergio could bring a strong return, I'd be very open to trading him.
The problems are that the Giants are going for it now; Sergio is very inexpensive for this upcoming season; while I haven't looked closely, this is probably a good time to trade Santiago Casilla, as well; Heath Hembree -- a likely future candidate to close -- is unproven; and Jeremy Affeldt is coming off an injury and likely not a strong closing candidate himself.
If the Giants could deal both Romo and Casilla for some young arms (such as Smith, for example, since Romo would likely bring more than just Smith in return), I'd be very open to closer by committee. Let's not forget that two years ago the concept worked very well and led to Romo himself taking over the closer role.
If the Giants traded Romo and/or Casilla, they would jeopardize their 2014 season -- but I'll bet they could be better in 2015 and 2016 as a result. If he has another successful season, Romo will likely command an eight-digit salary, which is a lot for a reliever.
It should be fun a year ago to see if hindsight will show this would have been a good move, or if it likely would have sabotaged the 2014 season. If the Giants somehow win it all again this season, we will likely look back and say I was a fool. If they are a little disappointing again or get knocked off early, we might look back and say I was a visionary.
I haven't looked that closely at Casilla, but right now if the Giants could get a couple of pitchers on the way up -- guys like Smith might be -- for Romo, I'd jump on it.
I've left myself wide open to criticism here, and my strategy could certainly backfire -- and backfire badly. But under the concept of better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late, at least offering Romo up to see what his market value would be is probably prudent.
Don't give the guy away. But more bullpen depth now with added upside for the future might be better than going with a very high-level guy who may have started on the way down.
It's likely too late to offer up Sergio now. But it could have made an intriguing direction to examine right after the season.
This is why I love differences of opinion. If the Smith-Romo apparently one-sided comparison hadn't come up, I doubt I would be examining the prudence of offering Romo now.
Perhaps it's just craziness, but this is the type of analysis we should hope the Giants are doing. They have scouting input we don't have. In that regard, I would be curious to see how others view Romo's career path from here. There are bound to be intriguing differences of opinion.
Read more:
sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/2159/giants-acquired-norichika-aoki#ixzz2pKxXvaFN
