Over/Under

[allenreed]

Got some of these off the Baseball Channel. But I thought it was fun and would like to hear the opinions of others.

1) Will the Giants starting five (Matty, Bummy, Timmy, Huddy, and Vogey) combine for more or less than 60 wins this season?

2) Will Jacoby Ellsbury play in more or less than 130 games this season?

3) During Robinson Cano's time in Seattle will the M's make more or less than two postseason appearances?

[rxmeister]

I'm saying less than 60 wins, but I think that will be because Vogelsong will win about three before Edwin Escobar takes his place. I don't really care about Ellsbury, but I'll say less. By the way, it came out yesterday that Boras turned down 7 yrs 140 for Choo from the Yankees, and that was AFTER the Ellsbury signing! I guess that's why they turned to Beltran. I'll also go with more than two for the Mariners with Cano. I think they'll even win a wildcard this upcoming year. I expect them to add one of the top starters still on the market.

[allenreed]

I just don't see the M's this year. I don't think they'll get as much from Hart and LoMo as they think they will. Not in that park. They won't beat out Oakland and Texas, though the Angels are a complete guess.
I heard that about Choo, and I read that is why they took Beltran. I think Boras is making the same mistake as Cano did, thinking about the money and not the playing situation. Of course, that may be premature as we don't yet know where Choo will land.

[sharksrog]

In today's game, 60 wins is tough for a starting five to get. The Giants did have 71 in 2012, but they reached only 42 last season.

The 2012 season is the only one in the past 11 years in which the Giants' five starters won 60 or more games. They won 66 in 2002. With the trade deadline addition of Jason Schmidt, they won exactly 60 in 2001. And they won 68 in 2000.

I've got to go with the under on that one, although with Hudson's replacing Zito, they've got a decent chance.

The amazing thing about the 66 wins in 2012 is that Zito had 15 of them. In 2000, Russ Ortiz won 14 despite a 5.01 ERA. In 2001, it was Livan Hernandez's winning 13 with a 5.24 ERA. In 2002, Ryan Jensen won 13 games with a 4.51 ERA. All those guys with the exception of Hernandez received tremendous run support. Hernandez himself won six games while yielding four or more runs.

[klaiggeb]

I'm going to go with more.

Just for the heck of it, here's my breakdown

Bumgarner 17 (but given a few breaks, it could be more)

Cain 15 (IF he finally gest some run support)

Lincecum 12(I'm being really optimistic. If he REALLY has reinvented himself... could be a great signing)

Hudson 12 (All depends upon that ankle)

Vogey/whomever 10 (I think Vogey will actually stick and do well. He's overcome too much adversity not to)

boly

[sfgdood]

It's more important that the team get 90+ wins to make the playoffs than it is for the staff to reach 60 wins. If the team wins 92, makes the playoffs and the starters pitch well and get just 50 wins, that's just fine with me.

~Dood

[klaiggeb]

It's more important that the team get 90+ wins to make the playoffs than it is for the staff to reach 60 wins. If the team wins 92, makes the playoffs and the starters pitch well and get just 50 wins, that's just fine with me.

---boly says---

Totally agree, Randy. It doesn't matter how we get there, just that we DO get there.

But the point of the post was to have fun with the question posed by the Baseball Channel.


Have fun with it.

boly

[sharksrog]

Randy -- It's more important that the team get 90+ wins to make the playoffs than it is for the staff to reach 60 wins. If the team wins 92, makes the playoffs and the starters pitch well and get just 50 wins, that's just fine with me.

Rog -- I'm with you on this one, Randy, although I do think it will be tough for the Giants to win 92 if their starters win just 50. Not impossible, but unlikely IMO.

As for the wins by any individual pitcher, that depends in part on his run support. For the first time in his career, Tim Lincecum didn't get it in 2011, going just 13-14 despite a 2.74 ERA. It was the first season in his career that he didn't get good run support. He had gone a combined 33-12 in his two Cy Young seasons, when he had much better support.

We have all seen that Matt Cain can pitch well and still have a horrible won-loss slate. IIRC he went a combined 15-30 in 2007 and 2008, even though he pitched well.

Amazingly, Barry Zito won 15 games in 2012 despite a 4.15 ERA. Of course, he got 4.76 runs of support.

My point is that Madison Bumgarner seems quite capable of winning 17 games, but even in his two Cy Young seasons, Lincecum didn't average quite 17 wins. Mad Bum pitched better last season than he pitched in 2012, yet he won three fewer games.

Give me the run support a pitcher will receive in a given season, and I can make an educated guess as to how many wins he'll garner. Without it, I can make only an uneducated guess.

I'm guessing the Giants' five starter won't win a combined 60 games because they have done so only once in the past 11 seasons. But on an individual basis, I'd simply be guessing.
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[sharksrog]

Boly -- But the point of the post was to have fun with the question posed by the Baseball Channel.

Rog -- I think the question is a good one.

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[allenreed]

At ease gentlemen. It was just some grist for the mill.

[sharksrog]

Here's a hypothetical one: Will the Giants win over 88 games this season? I happen to think they will, but I wouldn't be surprised if the betting over/under is right around the 88.

[allenreed]

That sounds about right. Plus or minus five. Now, where will that 88 place them in their division?

[sharksrog]

Allen -- Now, where will that 88 place them in their division?

Rog -- I don't think the Giants would make the playoffs with 88 wins. As I mentioned, I expect them to win more.

One thing that will obviously affect their record, too, is how strong the rest of the division is. Teams have so many variables. Will their players have up or down years? How healthy will they stay? How will their luck run in close games?

(I'm not really trying to bring up the luck thing here. I'll adjust that elsewhere.)

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