Asleep at the Switch?

[allenreed]

The Royals acquired Brewers outfielder Norichika Aoki for bullpen lefty and Fresh Prince Will Smith. We couldn't have came up with more than that? Aoki's a quality player and would have slid nicely into left field. Affeldt? Hembree? Blanco plus either of the other two, or all three?

[sfgdood]

I'd have to say the Giants would prefer a right handed left fielder. Let's see who they end up with. My personal opinion is that they will get a right handed hitter to platoon with Blanco to start the season and then they will swing a midseason deal to nab the guy they want to finish the season/postseason.

~Dood

[allenreed]

The thing is Aoki is a very good player who makes very little ($1.95 million, according to baseball reference). He's like Blanco except better in every respect. Kind of an uber Blanco. Also, he doesn't need to be platooned. I would have grabbed him and dumped Blanco. Simple matter of improving your team.

[rxmeister]

I'm with Allen. Will Smith is a nice young pitcher, a good actor and talented rapper, but I would think that the Giants could have matched or surpassed that offer. Let's see who they get, but I would have liked to see Aoki with the Giants.

[allenreed]

You really think Will Smith is a good actor?

[sharksrog]

Mark -- I'm with Allen. Will Smith is a nice young pitcher, a good actor and talented rapper, but I would think that the Giants could have matched or surpassed that offer. Let's see who they get, but I would have liked to see Aoki with the Giants.

Rog -- Smith is a 24-year-old LEFTY reliever who struck out 43 batters in 33.1 innings last season while posting a 0.93 WHIP. He also walked just 7 batters. He might be just coming into his own.

I wonder if he or Heath Hembree would be viewed as the better prospect. Heath is just older than Smith and has barely pitched in the majors. Smith has also done some starting and was a better pitcher in AAA than Hembree was last season. Between AAA and the majors, Smith threw 122 innings last season, and two years before that, he pitched 161 frames.

I didn't even know who Will Smith was, but the more I look at him, the more there seems to be to like.

Would you have given up Santiago Casilla for Aoki or given up Hembree AND Blanco? If I were the Brewers, I would even have had to think about either of those packages.

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[allenreed]

Yes, and yes.

[rxmeister]

Definitely do that deal, although I really like Hembree. I'm going to go on record and predict the Giants sign Rajai Davis as their big LF move.

[allenreed]

I've thought of him, though I hoped the Giants could do better. The only guy Rog mentioned thatI would even hesitate on is Casilla, but I'd still do the deal for Aoki. In fact, I'd give up all three.

[rxmeister]

I like Casilla, but he's overpaid in my opinion, so I wouldn't mind seeing him go. To me he's a sixth or seventh inning guy, but the Giants are both using him and paying him like an eighth inning set up man. I would like to see Hembree take over that role if he's ready.

[allenreed]

Wow. I thought Casilla was a pretty good setup man. Not flawless, but who is?

[rxmeister]

That Wilson guy on the Dodgers!

[sharksrog]

Mark -- Definitely do that deal, although I really like Hembree. I'm going to go on record and predict the Giants sign Rajai Davis as their big LF move.

Rog -- Not at all a bad guess on your part, Mark. Rajai can run and play defense. He hits southpaws well (.779 OPS), and he was rated a +48 bases on the base paths this season. The past five seasons he has stolen 216 bases while being caught only 53 times. He had his best base stealing season this past year, going 45 for 51.

Get this. Last season Gregor Blanco was rated at 2.5 WAR, in part because of his excellent defense. Davis was rated at 1.8 WAR. That's a combined 4.3 WAR. Hunter Pence was rated at 4.1 WAR.

This isn't quite as good for the blazing duo as it sounds. Both players had career or near-career years. Between them they had 861 plate appearances, nearly 200 more than Pence's 687. It would be very unrealistic to expect them to play together and combine for much more than half what they did last season.

But the point is that the two could form a decent duo despite driving deficiently down the power alley. I'm guessing that Davis could be obtained for something like 2/$8, and I believe Gregor is expected to make somthing around $2 million in his first arbitration year.

By playing for platoon production, the Giants might be able to form an acceptable left field combo at a very reasonable price. If they could add a fifth outfielder with some pop (admittedly, hard to find in a FIFTH outfielder), they might not have a bad outfield top to bottom.

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[sfgdood]

Rx - I like Casilla, but he's overpaid in my opinion, so I wouldn't mind seeing him go. To me he's a sixth or seventh inning guy, but the Giants are both using him and paying him like an eighth inning set up man. I would like to see Hembree take over that role if he's ready.

Dood - three things...first, you don't really like Casilla that much if you see him as a 6th or 7th inning guy. He has been far more than that, when healthy, for the Giants. Second, Hembree being ready is a BIG if. He hasn't shown enough to me to be confident enough to trade Casilla. Third, the Giants are a team built on pitching, and the bullpen had precious few consistent parts to it last season. It wouldn't be a good idea to trade one of those consistent parts away when you're trying to shore up the pitching staff.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Rx - I like Casilla, but he's overpaid in my opinion, so I wouldn't mind seeing him go. To me he's a sixth or seventh inning guy, but the Giants are both using him and paying him like an eighth inning set up man. I would like to see Hembree take over that role if he's ready.

Dood - three things...first, you don't really like Casilla that much if you see him as a 6th or 7th inning guy. He has been far more than that, when healthy, for the Giants. Second, Hembree being ready is a BIG if. He hasn't shown enough to me to be confident enough to trade Casilla. Third, the Giants are a team built on pitching, and the bullpen had precious few consistent parts to it last season. It wouldn't be a good idea to trade one of those consistent parts away when you're trying to shore up the pitching staff.

Rog -- Fine points, Randy.

Perhaps Santiago is like Brian Wilson was in that he isn't clean in the way he ends innings. The impression he gives is sometimes one of struggling, even when he winds up getting the job done.

Randy is on the money when he calls Casilla consistent. His ERA's as a Giant have been 1.95, 1.74, 2.86 and 2.16. That is the most consistent of any pitcher in memory. It's right in there with Sergio Romo's 2.18, 1.50, 1.79 and 2.54, and Sergio went 2.12 and 3.97 the two years before that. I can't remember any CLOSE to that duo for season-to-season consistency.

I didn't check the other three seasons, but by my count, Santiago allowed only 6 of his 32 inherited runners to score. That's really good. His 22 holds and two saves with only one blown was as spectacular as his 20 saves in 21 games in 2012 prior to the blister he suffered around mid-season.

Prior to the blister, there was talk of his making the All-Star team. I don't always get this feeling with Casilla on the mound, but his results have been excellent.

That said, Casilla's strikeout rate has decline every season as a Giant, and his walk was slightly the worst of his Giants career. His hit rate was 2nd-highest and his WHIP WAS the highest. He appears primed for a decline.

I was a bit surprised with how big his contract is, but he should be eminently tradeable. He's clearly not overpaid for what he has accomplished.

As for Hembree, he was absolutely FABULOUS in September with the Giants. But he wasn't as stellar at Fresno, allowing 8.8 H/9 and 1.1 HR/9. He did post a fabulous 10.2 K rate compared to a tidy 2.6 walks.

I really like Hembree. As Boly mentioned here, he LOOKS like a closer -- and someday might become one. Still, I would agree with Randy that the Giants are looking to ADD, not subtract, relievers.

Given his consistency, it would be a bold move to trade him. But because he seems primed for decline, I wouldn't hesitate to do so if a good trade could be made. Two winters ago the Giants traded reliever Ramon Ramirez along with Andres Torres for Angel Pagan, and that worked out quite well. A simlar trade of Casilla and Blanco should bring even more in return, hopefully solving the left field problem.

If the Giants do trade Casilla, though, they will likely need at least two replacements. It appears they are already looking to add one or two more relievers. Even with Casilla, they have only four firemen who are proven (although four is more than many teams).

The Giants control Casilla for three more years, paying him $9.5 million the next two seasons and holding for a $1 million buyout, an option for 2016. That level of control should be attractive to other teams.

In summary, I think Mark under-appreciates Santiago's contribution as a Giant, but I would be willing to allow him to go in the right deal. Anyone out there who needs a proven set up man and could afford to replace a power-hitting left fielder with an excellent glove man?


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