Mark -- I love Lincecum, but I'd probably go Hudson, Haren and Lincecum. I think Timmy will out pitch Haren next season but the 7.5 million difference could have netted them a left fielder. In fact it's exactly what Chris Young signed for with the Mets, and he said the Giants had interest. If the Lincecum salary doesn't hamper them with signings the next two years, then it's no problem, but I have a feeling that it might.
Rog -- You know, when I saw this post, I first saw Boagie's name, and I was glad I could cite a post where I felt he really did a nice job. Then I saw it was yours, Mark, you dirty old codger.
Hudson's signing has risk. He's coming off an ugly and severe injury, much as was the case with Buster Posey two years ago. It turned out well for Buster, and even though he's 38, it seems reasonable it will turn out well for Hudson too.
Hudson is a guy who has pitched at a near Hall of Fame level and has continued to pitch well throughout his 30's. Five times in his career Hudson has posted an ERA of 3.22 or below, and three of the five have come in his 30's. At age 35, he posted the 2nd-lowest ERA of his career (2.83).
The risk is there, but the reward may be the highest of the trio.
Haren has been an outstanding pitcher in the past, but like Lincecum, his last good season came three seasons back. In 3 of his last four seasons, his ERA has been 3.91 or higher. The past two seasons it has been 4.33 and 4.67.
But as recently as 2011, Haren was an excellent starter. At 1/$10, he looks like the 2nd-best risk here.
Four years ago Tim Lincecum became the first-ever pitcher to win Cy Young Awards in each of his first three seasons.
Three years ago, he was the MVP of the 2010 postseason.
Two years ago, his ERA once again dipped below 3.00 -- for the 3rd time in four full seasons.
But that was two years ago. The interim has been a discombobulating, to say the least.
Still, Tim's peripherals have been clearly better than his last two ERA's. He's improved considerably since the disasterous first half of 2012.
Does that warrant a 2/$35 contract? In today's market, it just might. The difference is that the contracts of Hudson and Haren combined don't add up to as much money as Lincecum's. Haren and especially Hudson look like bargains. Lincecum looks like a guy who might pitch to his contract.
More than the other two, Tim is being paid for his past -- and for being a franchise icon. Somehow the Giants just "feel" better with Tim on next season's roster. Do they feel as good as say Haren and a left fielder? Probably not, at least on the field.
By the way, the Giants seem to have set their sights higher for a fifth starter, but unless he has arm problems, wouldn't Ryan Vogelsong seem like a pretty decent bet? Remember, it's been barely more than 15 months since one could have made the argument that Ryan was the best starter in the game at the time. And there seems little question he was the most consistent.
When he was injured, was Ryan finally getting it back together after a horrible start last season? Or had he already lost it for good? Maybe the Giants know something about that arm that I don't. If not, I'd be happy to take my chances with Vogelsong. Especially if I could somehow sneak a pretty good left fielder into the equation.
Read more:
sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2107&page=1#17122#ixzz2lro77AS4
