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Post by allenreed on Sept 25, 2013 23:42:22 GMT -5
I'll go with Pence.
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 26, 2013 2:13:49 GMT -5
I would be surprised if anyone except Hunter won the award, although I suppose Marco Scutaro might be a candidate.
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 26, 2013 7:54:39 GMT -5
Yeah, Reverend Pence will win it, pretty much a no brainer.
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 26, 2013 9:34:16 GMT -5
And will Hunter be back? The Giants are indeed talking to him, and both sides know he will make more money as a free agent if he decides to go that way. The Giants are going to need to offer him a very nice contract in order to keep him from free agency -- but they know that.
Andre Ethier's 5/$85 seems to be the template for players in this range -- very good players who aren't superstars. Hunter's advisors are likely looking at that amount, with a bump for salary inflaction. The Giants are perhaps looking at something more like 4/$60. Maybe the two sides could get together at something like 5/$75 of 5/$80?
Money is going to be tight, but the Giants absolutely WILL address left field (perhaps through moving Brandon Belt to first base). Tim Lincecum will be tough to re-sign, and the Giants' "no-brainer" $6.5 million option on Ryan Vogelsong isn't looking like a slam dunk anymore.
The problem with NOT signing Lincecum is that he's a fan favorite and a symbol of their two World Championships. The problem WITH signing him is that his history has been to test for limits, and he will likely get a pretty big contract, although probably for fewer years than otherwise.
My guess at this point would be that the Giants won't be able to re-sign Tim, and that they will work out a contract reduction to perhaps 1/$5 for Ryan. That would give them room to address left field and the final two spots in the rotation.
A trade of Pablo Sandoval could happen, but this would seem a bad time to trade him.
It sounds like Belt will be a Giant long-term (possibly working out a deal this winter?), so if they spend good money on left field or first base, they might put themselves in a position where if they decide to keep Pablo a year from now, they will be keeping Buster Posey behind the dish a few more years.
If the Giants don't re-sign Pablo, that could mean a move to third or first base for Buster. If the Giants sign a left fielder or first baseman to a short contract, that might come closer to fitting the timeframe the Giants are thinking for Buster. If they re-sign Pablo and have a left fielder or first baseman locked up for four or five years, they will be committing to keeping Buster behind the plate for several more seasons.
In order to retain flexibility, the Giants will likely sign a player to a short contract. I'm not sure how the emotions are between Carlos Beltran and the Giants, but as Mark suggested, he could be a fit. A shorter contract could give the Giants more flexibility with their decision on Pablo and postpone any moving of Belt to left field.
The Giants could indeed look more different next season than we originally thought.
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Post by allenreed on Sept 26, 2013 11:11:25 GMT -5
I'm worried about Vogey too. But $6.5 is awfully cheap.
Pence almost has to be signed. I'd certainly go 4/$60. I don't like that fifth year though.
Timmy? I can't see a big contract. I just can't. Someone will give it to him. I just hope it's not us. I just think we can do better for less money.
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Post by Islandboagie on Sept 26, 2013 14:39:37 GMT -5
I'd give the Willie Mac award to Bumgarner. He's established himself as a strong # 2, at times a #1. Recently he's also become more vocal with the mecia, its evident he does NOT like the Giants losing. Vocally he's almost become the team leader of late...Pence will probably get it, but my vote would go to Bumgarner, he's the one who really stepped up when we needed everyone to, Unfortunately, everyone else stepped down including the "Reverand."
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Post by allenreed on Sept 26, 2013 14:48:01 GMT -5
Bummy would also be a good choice, but he only played in 32 games. Pence played in 158. He led the team in almost all of the important offensive categories, hustles his butt off, and is somewhat of an inspirational leader. Bummy would be my second choice though. You could go either way I guess.
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 26, 2013 23:34:32 GMT -5
I don't think 6.5 million is that cheap for a number five starter, and Vogelsong is old and coming off a dreadful season. I'd let him go and look to sign someone else, or just put Yusmeiro Petit in the role, and hope he can do the job until Edwin Escobar is ready. I think they'll re-sign Pence, and it will be an overpay at about 5 yrs 90 million. I think they'll re-sign Lincecum too, unless that one dumb owner that everyone talks about suddenly appears. And based on Sabean's comments, unless Pablo shows up for spring training completely out of shape, I think they look to lock him up as well.
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Post by allenreed on Sept 27, 2013 1:34:50 GMT -5
Who says he's the #5 starter? Especially if Lincecum goes. As it stands at season's end, we're looking at Bummy, Cain, Vogey, Gaudin, Petit. Good thing we have Bummy at $7M per for awhile. We'll have Cain at $20M and maybe the whole rest of the rotation for less than $20M.
Right now, we'll have $35 million next year that we spent on Lincecum and Zito this year.
We may get Lincecum cheaper if they promise to leave him in the rotation. Everyone else seems to want him as a reliever.
I think we can get Pence for less than 5/$90. I really don't think he wants to play anywhere else. 4/$65?
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 27, 2013 2:18:10 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 27, 2013 2:20:01 GMT -5
I believe we should think of starters based on worth compared to salary rather than as #1 through #5. All five pitchers get approximately the same number of starts.
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 27, 2013 10:09:44 GMT -5
Ryan Vogelsong IS a number five starter. If he's a number three starter in next year's Giants rotation with Gaudin and Petit behind him, the Giants will be one of the worst teams in baseball.
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Post by allenreed on Sept 27, 2013 12:46:14 GMT -5
As opposed to this year?
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 27, 2013 13:38:32 GMT -5
Yeah, they were terrible this year. Think they want to repeat that?
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Post by allenreed on Sept 27, 2013 13:42:04 GMT -5
I hope not.
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Post by Islandboagie on Sept 27, 2013 14:43:36 GMT -5
I agree with Mark...we don't know what Matt Cain will do next year, we need more than scrap heapers to plug into the final 3 spots of the rotation if we want to contend next season. It's unrealistic to assume both Petit and Gaudin will have another career year.
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Post by allenreed on Sept 27, 2013 17:33:12 GMT -5
Any suggestions? I have advocated Tanaka from Japan.
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 28, 2013 7:29:11 GMT -5
The usual suspects, which are Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Feldman, and Bronson Arroyo. I'm not a big fan of Arroyo's, but with all the young arms coming up soon, he'd probably be the best bet because you can probably get him on a two year deal. He also said he'd love to pitch here. As I mentioned before, Sabean said he WILL add a starter even if Timmy re- signs, and he has his eye on someone in particular. Arroyo makes the most sense. He has a 3.13 ERA at home pitching in a bandbox. Imagine him in a pitcher's park. Obviously he's old, but with all the kids in the system, what sense does it make to give a younger pitcher a four or five year deal? I would give Tanaka that long a deal though, but it would take a huge posting offer to outbid everyone else.
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Post by allenreed on Sept 28, 2013 10:55:14 GMT -5
I've touted Feldman here for awhile. Garza strikes me as too expensive, as does Arroyo. I'm not a big fan of Bronson either, though he always seems to pitch well against us. I've never really liked Nolasco. I think he'll be overpriced as well. We shall see. The noises Tim is making sound like he's gone, thanking the fans and summing up his SF career.
Some good news. Supposedly negotiations with Pence are ongoing and about to bear fruit. An announcement is anticipated before the finale tomorrow.
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Post by Islandboagie on Sept 28, 2013 11:42:05 GMT -5
I'm still standing by my original idea. Resign Lincecum and sign Josh Johnson. The upside seems too high not to consider. If you want stability..Nolasco or Garza seems like a good pick.
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 28, 2013 15:38:11 GMT -5
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 29, 2013 9:05:10 GMT -5
Wouldn't surprise me to see a trade here for a starter. They would blow out the payroll just signing free agents and I don't see that happening.
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Post by sharksrog on Sept 29, 2013 12:41:02 GMT -5
Mark -- Wouldn't surprise me to see a trade here for a starter. They would blow out the payroll just signing free agents and I don't see that happening. Rog -- I'm now not expecting to see Tim Lincecum re-sign, which would seem to see the Giants looking for two starting pitchers. Add that to a left fielder, and as you so accurately point out, the Giants just can't afford to effectively replace all three spots via free agency. Lincecum will almost certainly be overpriced, but so will most of the other free agents. That's the nature of how MLB has set up the free agency market. So the Giants will need to orchestrate at least one trade. They have mostly prospects to offer, so expect one or more of the five or six top pitchers who began the year in A ball to move on. Barring a stunning blockbuster though, Kyle Crick won't be among them. Ideas? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=2019&page=1#15429#ixzz2gItz6L6Q |
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 29, 2013 14:55:28 GMT -5
Brian was not at the Pence press conference today, because he's personally scouting Jose Abreu in the Dominican Republic. People are comparing him to Andres Gallaraga. They have already seen him several times, so I'm thinking they're very interested and Sabean could even be looking to sign him right now. That would take care of that hole right now, assuming the kid is for real. That would leave the rotation as the only major problem left.
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Post by allenreed on Sept 29, 2013 19:02:24 GMT -5
I've heard good power, non-athletic, not mobile. He sounds like a DH to me. I'd try Tananka.
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Post by rxmeister on Sept 30, 2013 7:10:02 GMT -5
I like Tanaka, but he's not the kind of free agent you can just sign. He gets posted by his team, and MLB teams submit bids. I'm expecting a bid of at least 50 million dollars to sign him. THEN, you have to negotiate a contract with him personally. That's a lot of money.
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sfgdood
Long time member 
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 8, 2013 10:58:37 GMT -5
yeah, this year the Willie Mac was a slam dunk. He started every game which is more than just a rarity anymore...you just don't see it. But Hunter takes such great care of his body he can do it, while still going all out all the time. If I was a cynical dood, I would say he might be juicing, but who really knows anymore?
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Oct 8, 2013 15:57:58 GMT -5
My favorite thing about the Willie Mac award is that Bonds never won it. Since it's voted on by the team, I think that speaks volumes about Barry.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 8, 2013 16:09:07 GMT -5
Maybe so...but I have seen more of his teammates praising him than bashing him after they parted ways.
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Oct 8, 2013 17:04:27 GMT -5
What good will come from bashing him now that he's retired? Anyway, you're just repeating what's already known.
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