Brandon Bufoon

[sharksrog]

Allen -- I sure wasn't getting on Brandon, just pointing out the fallacy of Rog's argument.

Rog -- Unless you're being literal about the left-handed thing, I'm not sure what that is. Even the lefty-righty thing could be resolved with Brandon's playing first base and all three outfield positions.

Incidentally, Buster doesn't have the range for shortstop or probably second base; Belt doesn't have the range for center field. But I presume we're talking about "Buster's" and "Brandon's" who are playing their position at about the same level as Buster plays at catcher and Brandon at first base.

If not, the dynamic would certainly change -- although I'm still not sure you couldn't win with them.

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- I don't mean to be a negative Nancy, but how is this year any different than the last two? In 2011 Brandon seemed like he started to figure it out. Then for most of 2012 he looked lost again until the end when he started to work his average up, but showed a lack of power.

Rog -- I don't think we know whether this time is different from the other two or not. Hopefully, the grip has something to do with it. Worst case, Brandon's .790 career OPS ranks up there with the Giants' best.

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[rxmeister]

I mentioned this before, but Brandon Belt hit .304 vs. St. Louis in the NLCS last year with 7 hits in 23 at bats. He also homered and had an OPS of .925. Were those games not big?

[sfgdood]

the main difference, Boagie, is that Brandon made some significant adjustments this time. Before he stayed stubborn to his ways and just happened to catch a hot streak. It's not just the grip, although that's a big part. It's also where he stands in the box and the angle that the bat is when he waits for the pitch. All of these adjustments combined have allowed him to be quick enough on the inside fastball, as he obviously wasn't before. The quick results have bloomed into higher confidence. But really the best result this will have is now Brandon wont ever be reluctant to try some new things when he's in a funk. He broke the stubbornness cycle.

~Dood

[allenreed]

Rog -- You're right about the streakiness of each player (especially Brandon, obviously). Not sure where the ERA figures came from though.

Allen- Jonathan Sanchez-2009.

[sharksrog]

Rog -- You're right about the streakiness of each player (especially Brandon, obviously). Not sure where the ERA figures came from though.

Allen- Jonathan Sanchez-2009.

Rog -- I see where the ERA numbers came from now. Let's not forget that Jonathan gave up three or fewer earned runs in 19 of his 30 starts that season. (He had two relief appearances I included in previous numbers.) He gave his team a chance to win most of his starts.

Jonathan's lack of endurance would indeed hurt the team a bit, although with four Posey's and four Belt's, the team could probably have 14 pitchers without creating much of a problem. If not, a bit of rotation of young relievers between the majors and minors would likely solve the problem.

Jonathan average about half an inning less per start than the Giants' staff has averaged this season. In other words, the bullpen would need to pick up about an extra 80 innings.

Yeah, I think a team with a pitching staff of 2009 Jonathan Sanchez's and an everyday team of 4 Buster Posey's and 4 Brandon Belt's would do just fine -- especially since Jonathan's league average ERA starts would be backed up by what would almost surely be a lower ERA out of the pen.

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[Islandboagie]

I mentioned this before, but Brandon Belt hit .304 vs. St. Louis in the NLCS last year with 7 hits in 23 at bats. He also homered and had an OPS of .925. Were those games not big?

Boagie- You're right, he wasn't that bad vs. The Cards, but overall that post-season he was terrible. The one homerun you mention was hit during the clinching game against St. Louis when we were already leading 8-0. Perhaps my expectations are higher than a .633 ops during the post-season for a guy who COULD be a good #3 hitter. I can probably name 2 or 3 memorable clutch hits from all our starting players but when I get to Brandon I draw a blank.

[sharksrog]

Last season Belt hit very well in both August and September. If he continues through the rest of this season, I doubt he'll have too many detractors. It's almost as if teams are starting to pitch around him right now.

For those who would trade him and pick up another good-hitting first baseman, Brandon's .838 OPS ranks 7th in the majors. His .280 batting average ranks 11th; his .357 OBP ranks 7th; and his .480 SLG ranks 6th.

It's just not as easy to find a good-hitting first baseman as it would seem. Although the Giants seem to have one.

[Islandboagie]

Last season Belt hit very well in both August and September. If he continues through the rest of this season, I doubt he'll have too many detractors. It's almost as if teams are starting to pitch around him right now.

For those who would trade him and pick up another good-hitting first baseman, Brandon's .838 OPS ranks 7th in the majors. His .280 batting average ranks 11th; his .357 OBP ranks 7th; and his .480 SLG ranks 6th.

It's just not as easy to find a good-hitting first baseman as it would seem. Although the Giants seem to have one.

Boagie- If you think those numbers accurately represent what Belt has done all season long, you're fooling yourself. If Belt were a .280 hitter all season long you wouldn't hear any complaints from me. Unfortunately those numbers don't tell the full story. For a long while Belt was hovering in the .250-.260s range and was lost at the plate. During that period he was a big hole in the lineup. Look at Pence's numbers, they're not bad either but for a long period there he too was a hole in the lineup. We just can't be complacent with players who check out for a large portion of the season. I expect better from a position that should be a key spot in our lineup.

I like what I see out of Belt right now, enough that trading him would be a mistake in my opinion. But if the same pattern we've seen over the last 3 seasons continues, it may be time for a change.

[rxmeister]

Maybe you have a selective memory when it comes to Brandon Belt, because I remember a bunch of clutch hits. He's killed the Dbacks this year, which I remembered, but I had to look up the dates of course. Two run game tying homerun in the ninth on 4/23, followed by a walkoff single against a lefty specialist. Not clutch? Two out two run single with the bases loaded on 4/29 with the game tied in the top of the eighth? Not clutch? Two run game tying HR in the eighth on 5/1. Not clutch? And this was not late in the season with the team out of it. Last night alone he had a huge ground rule double in the eighth to bring the Giants back into the game, but I guess you would discount that one because they're out of it.

[klaiggeb]

I like what I see out of Belt right now, enough that trading him would be a mistake in my opinion. But if the same pattern we've seen over the last 3 seasons continues, it may be time for a change.

---boly says---

Well said, Boagie! Well said!

And I couldn't agree more.


there was some discussion on the board about Brandon "once again" being in a hot streak.

And I understand that line of thought.

But the old "hot streak" Brandon, is different from the Brandon I see now, and I can offer some of my reasons why. (Since I was one of the loudest complainers about him)

1-Yeah, he once in a while chases a bad pitch. Every hitter does. BUT... he is no longer suseptible to that inside heater that he once was. Now, he's short and quick to the ball.

2-In his hot streks, Brandon hit the ball hard... but not nearly as often as he has been since his grip/stance change. Now, even his outs are often loud.

3-His mental approach looks different. Like last night. They brought in Outtman, and I was expecting to, once again, see the old Brandon over whelmed.

Instead, he whacked the crap otta the ball to deep LCF.

IF this is just a streak, it's been going on a long, long time. Much longer than any hot streak he's had before.

boly

[sharksrog]

Rog -- Last season Belt hit very well in both August and September. If he continues through the rest of this season, I doubt he'll have too many detractors. It's almost as if teams are starting to pitch around him right now.

For those who would trade him and pick up another good-hitting first baseman, Brandon's .838 OPS ranks 7th in the majors. His .280 batting average ranks 11th; his .357 OBP ranks 7th; and his .480 SLG ranks 6th.

It's just not as easy to find a good-hitting first baseman as it would seem. Although the Giants seem to have one.

Boagie- If you think those numbers accurately represent what Belt has done all season long, you're fooling yourself. If Belt were a .280 hitter all season long you wouldn't hear any complaints from me. Unfortunately those numbers don't tell the full story. For a long while Belt was hovering in the .250-.260s range and was lost at the plate. During that period he was a big hole in the lineup. Look at Pence's numbers, they're not bad either but for a long period there he too was a hole in the lineup. We just can't be complacent with players who check out for a large portion of the season. I expect better from a position that should be a key spot in our lineup.

Rog -- I understand what you're saying here, Boagie. I too have mentioned that Brandon is probably the streakiest of the Giants' hitters. Your comment on Pence's streakiness is right on, as well.

But might I mention that almost all hitters are streaky? Willie Mays is considered one of the best hitters ever, and he too was very streaky. Sometimes, as in the case of Mays, a player is known for his hot streaks. That ignores the other side of the coin.

Looking only at the bad side of Belt's streakiness isn't seen the whole picture, either.

I haven't looked this up, but when I do, you are going to be shocked at Buster Posey's RBI dearth. Buster went 25 games with only two RBI's. We're talking about a cleanup hitter here. During that time, Buster fell from .326 to .305 -- nearly a point per game.

Part of the reason he drove in almost no runs was the hits he did get were almost all singles. He had two doubles, no triples and no home runs in those 25 games. Heck, even now he has just three doubles in his last 34 games.

The difference is that Buster LOOKS better at the plate when he's slumping than Brandon does. He has a much better reputation than Brandon does. Buster's long slump came when the Giants were pretty much out of it anyway.

I'm not saying that Buster isn't the better player. What I'm saying is that Brandon isn't nearly as bad as some here think. Despite his streakiness and the troubles he has had as the season has gone along, his hitting is among that of the top first baseman in the game. Even Randy -- who IMO for a long time erred in the other direction -- gave up on him, although he did so for a different reason.

Sometimes I wonder why people don't see certain players accurately.

I myself overrated Brandon initially, but dropped my expectations, while still thinking the guy could become a nice player. I didn't give up on him (although I was accused here of doing so). I merely lowered my expectations -- which had been VERY high -- a bit.

Remember how I have said that when teams are going particularly well, they usually aren't as good as they appear, with the opposite being true when they're playing poorly. The same is often true with players.

Now, to your credit here Boagie, you're criticizing Belt when he is UP, not down. But I'm not sure he is much streaker than Pence, as you mentioned, and even Buster Posey and Willie Mays have or had their down times, as well.

If we take the games players have multiple hits out of their stats, we would be appalled at how poorly they hit. ALL players are streaky. Some -- even at least a few of the greats -- more so than other.


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[Islandboagie]

I never saw Willie Mays play, but I'd guess his hot and cold streaks were more like Posey's and less like Belt's. The difference between a Posey and Belt slump is pretty noticeable to me. During a Posey slump he shows less power, he doesn't square up and drive the ball, but how many times do we see him go 0'fer with 3 strikeouts? Even when Posey is slumping he still puts the ball in play and does things offensively where you want to still see him out there. When Belt is in one of his slumps those 0'fer with multiple strikeouts happen fairly regularly. Posey still manages to hit sac flies, draw walks, battle pitchers, and get hits here and there. Also, during a Belt slump its not so much that he's not squaring up pitches, its more that pitchers see the weakness in his swing and are exploiting it. This wouldn't happen with Posey and I'm assuming it never happened to Mays because they're smart hitters, even when they're in slumps. I believe that's the difference between a solid major league hitter and a player on the fence between the majors and AAA.

[allenreed]

I think we may have to push the reset on Belt now that he's altered his hitting style. He seems to be a different hitter. I think we can expect less Ks, and hopefully less protracted slumps. His bat seems to be alot quicker, pitch selection somewhat better.
People here seem to be expecting alot out of a player in his second full season. Brandon's still got alot of learning to do, but the change in hitting style looks (at least so far) to be a big step.
Posey's slumps to me seem to include almost endless ground balls to short. He doesn't strike out alot, no matter how bad he's going.

[sfgdood]

I dont consider Brandon to be "in" his second full season. He has over 1100 career plate appearances and three full postseason series. It's completely fair and justified to expect a lot from someone who put up video game numbers in the minor leagues. The mental errors in the field just makes it that much harder to take.

~Dood

[allenreed]

Whether you consider it that way or not, it's a fact.

[klaiggeb]

I think we may have to push the reset on Belt now that he's altered his hitting style. He seems to be a different hitter. I think we can expect less Ks, and hopefully less protracted slumps. His bat seems to be alot quicker, pitch selection somewhat better.

---boly says---

I totally agree with you, Allen. Especially when, as Randy pointed out, he has over 1100 plate appearances.

He's been a totally different hitter since coming out of his own, personal "hitting clinc."

Quicker hands, much, much, MUCH more consistant and loud contact.

It's like with Vogey. We were FORCED to hit the re set button with him. What he was when he was with us and Pittsburgh earlier, is NOT what he became with us in 2011, and 2012.

He found himself really late, and I, for one, am hoping for the same thing with Belt.

And not just Belt, but also Petit and Gaudin, too.

boly

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- I never saw Willie Mays play, but I'd guess his hot and cold streaks were more like Posey's and less like Belt's.

Rog -- I'm sorry you didn't get to see Willie play. You missed out on a lot. Because of the way he changed hitting and because he might well have made the Hall of Fame as a pitcher, I consider Babe Ruth to be a better all-around player than Willie, but Willie seems to me to be unique in that he played at a Hall of Fame level in EACH of the five tools.

Brandon hasn't hasn't hit at the level of Buster or Willie, so naturally his slumps would tend to be worse. My point though was that even the best of hitters have lots of slumps.

Brandon can look very bad as a hitter, and his body language often tends to be horrible, so his slumps often stand out more. He's an extreme streak hitter.

But he doesn't stand out quite as much as one would imagine.

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[sharksrog]

Allen -- Posey's slumps to me seem to include almost endless ground balls to short.

Rog -- Buster is very good at taking the ball the other way, but when he doesn't do so with the outside pitch, he tends to roll over on the ball, just as you have indicated here. Sometimes he also gets jammed a bit and grounds out to third.

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[allenreed]

Brandon hasn't hasn't hit at the level of Buster or Willie, so naturally his slumps would tend to be worse. My point though was that even the best of hitters have lots of slumps.

Brandon can look very bad as a hitter, and his body language often tends to be horrible, so his slumps often stand out more. He's an extreme streak hitter.

Allen- I think it might be a bit early to determine what kind of hitter Belt will be on a permanent basis. I think he's still finding himself as a ML hitter, and what he ultimately will be has yet to be determined.
To compare him to Posey or Mays seems a bit extreme at this early point of his career. Buster's one of the best hitters in the game, and Willie IMO, is the best player ever. Belt is still learning and developing.

[allenreed]

Rog -- I'm sorry you didn't get to see Willie play. You missed out on a lot.

Allen- Man, you did What an exciting player. Watching Willie play catch or run on and off the field was exciting. No matter what else was going on in the game, if Willie was on the field you found yourself watching him.
I can think of just two players who would bring me to the edge of my seat when they came up to bat. Willie Mays and (boly will love this) Reggie Jackson.

Because of the way he changed hitting and because he might well have made the Hall of Fame as a pitcher, I consider Babe Ruth to be a better all-around player than Willie, but Willie seems to me to be unique in that he played at a Hall of Fame level in EACH of the five tools.

Allen- I think Babe changed the way the game was played, from close to the vest small ball to a game that focused more on extra base hitting and home runs. He changed the entire sport.
I recently watched a special on Julius Erving where he was referred to as the "Babe Ruth of basketball" for the same reason. He changed the way the game was played.

[rxmeister]

I saw the special on Erving as well. I don't care if better players come along, that reverse layup where he palms the ball in one hand, hangs in the air as he goes to the other side to lay it in, is the prettiest shot in the history of basketball.

[allenreed]

I remember watching that game. That was just unbelievable. I don't know if better players have come along. I think it was Magic who said that Julius could do things that players in today's game can't do.

[rxmeister]

The one thing that kept Erving from being considered top two or three all time was the lack of a reliable jump shot. He was never a great shooter, the only chink in his armor. When the leagues merged, I couldn't wait to see him play against the NBA for the first time with the Nets. When they sold him to the Sixers before the season started, it began a hatred of that franchise for me that lasts to this day!

[allenreed]

Nets or Sixers? You know the Nets did it out of financial necessity, right? I had noticed that in that whole special on Doc, they showed him shooting jumpers like twice. I think the fact that he only won one NBA championship hurt him too. The loss to Portland hurt his reputation alot.

[rxmeister]

I know the Nets had to pay a ridiculous amount of money to join the NBA and I know their owner was forced to sell Erving because of it, but that didn't stop me from hating them for it. Let's not forget their was no Internet (Al Gore hadn't invented it yet!) and no NBA League Pass. Back then you had local team's road games televised and all the local games on the radio. Living in NYC I could've watched all the Nets road games, and attended a few home games at Nassau Coliseum. Instead I got an occasional appearance on the Sunday NBA game of the week. That's why I could never forgive the franchise. If they were my favorite team I would have, but I'm a Knicks fan. I rooted for the Nets in the ABA, but hated them the day they sold Erving. And to make it worse, they sold him to a team in the Knicks (and their own) division!

[allenreed]

Interesting. Do you ever go to Brooklyn to watch the Nets? What part of NY do you live in? Do you go to any Knicks games?
Doesn't JayZ own the Nets? Isn't he trying to break into being a sports agent? As a team owner, wouldn't that be a conflict of interest when he deals with NBA players?

[sharksrog]

Allen- I think it might be a bit early to determine what kind of hitter Belt will be on a permanent basis.

Rog -- I think that is a valid comment.

Allen -- I think he's still finding himself as a ML hitter, and what he ultimately will be has yet to be determined.
To compare him to Posey or Mays seems a bit extreme at this early point of his career

Rog -- Don't get the idea he was being compared to either potential/present Hall of Famer. The point was being made that even the best of players hit significant slumps.

When they came up, I did think Brandon had similar potential at the plate to Buster. Brandon might still live up to that, but of course he's fallen considerably short thus far.

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[rxmeister]

I went to one game in Brooklyn because I wanted to see the beautiful new Barclay's arena, but I rooted against the Nets. Unfortunately they won! I go to one or two Knicks games a season, but the price is prohibitive, so I usually just watch on TV. You can easily get cheap tickets to see the Nets (about 20 dollars on Stub Hub) but Knicks tickets are ridiculous. Even playing a bad team on a weeknight will cost you 75 dollars.
As for Jay Z, he owned less than one percent of the team, but sold it when he became an agent.