Out of the gate

[klaiggeb]

I am usually optimistic as the season begins, but this year, I have to admit, I am not.

I am not impressed with the last couple of weeks of Spring Training.

Offensively, we closed it out looking a lot like we did all of last year; Terrible.

And that's not a good sign.

Yeah, yeah, I know; it's only spring, and so forth.

And that may prove to be true.

But here's the thing; after leading the spring in hitting, we've been fumbling along for a couple of weeks.

Now it's true, we aren't running our regulars out there, and it's also true, that the players are bored, and ready for this thing to start.

But the bottom line is this; we aren't scoring runs; again.

Pagan has stunk up the spring, and most of us EXPECTED him to be the 1 hole guy.

That bumps up Blanco, who has NEVER had much success, into that spot. An unproven, career minor leaguer is not what I'm comfortable hanging my hat on.

Nate has been anything BUT great. Now I know he got beat out last spring by Bowker, and he turned it around and finished strong. And Bowker is no where to be seen.

IS Buster really healthy? I mean, healthy enough to hit 15-20 HRs?

Belt had a solid spring, and I'd start him over Huff no questions asked. BUT...

So who's in the OF?

Blanco in CF
Cabrerra in RF? LOrd, I hope not! Playing OUR RF, is like playing CF; so much ground to cover, and Melky is NOT that kind of a guy.

And, if, as the writers expect, Huff opens the season in LF... well, let's just say that I'm glad I'm not pitching with him out there!

He'll make the routine plays, but suddenly, the lines and gaps become that much bigger.

Tim has not been very good at all. What, one decent outting in his last 3 or 4?

And Zito, at least for now, is the # 4 guy? I don't think there's enough Petobismal to keep my stomach, much less Righetti's or Bochy's, under control.

All of the above, NOT encouraging signs...

I'm NOT panicing, so please, don't tell me I am.

I'm simply stating that I'm not impressed with the way we look at the opening gun.

I'm simply putting into words what I see.

All this can, and likely will change. But for the moment... I can't see us being the favorites to win the NL West.

Right now, that's in Arizona's park.

a skepitcal,

boly

[Islandboagie]

Boly, remember where we were when Posey went down with his injury last year? that's right, first place. Up to that point we were 5-1 against the Diamondbacks, after that point we got beat up on by them. They won't be doing that again. Nobody's pitching staff in the NL West can stack up against ours.

Last year, we were absolutely horrible offensively, We've made numerous upgrades. I like Melky Cabrera, I really like the platoon of Belt and Pill at 1st. I have a strong feeling that Crawford will put together a good season. I like our bench with Hector Sanchez, Burriss, Pill or Belt, Schierholtz and Blanco (hopefully Pagan soon.)

I beat up alot on Pagan, but even if he does continue to start in CF, what are the chances he will be as bad as the production we got from the leadoff hitters of last year? Better yet, what are the chances that both Pagan AND Blanco will be as bad? And if those two fail, we can stick Cabrera there. We can have a number of different outfield setups. If Huff shits out, we can move Cabrera to LF and Schierholtz to RF. Perhaps Pill in LF. I like the depth in the outfield.

At catcher, I like Sanchez backing up Posey, plus he's a viable bat off the bench.

First base is almost guaranteed not to fail this year, we got 3 options there with Belt, Pill and Huff.

Second base is the big question mark until Sanchez returns, I would have prefered to keep Fontenot over Theriot, but it is what it is.

[sfgdood]

Wow Boly...and here I thought you were jumping the gun last year when at least you waited until the season was a full 2 weeks old to abandon ship. If I recall correctly, you were worried that we would never be able to catch the Rockies who had jumped out to a 12-2 start or something like that...before they finished 4th in the division. You need to rediscover your patience, brother.

Before you get your tightie whities in a wad over SPRING TRAINING numbers, keep in mind that just about every team in baseball could produce a panic list as impressive as yours. Every year every player on every roster is a question mark, because previous production is no guarantee...but geeze louise, even A's fans are more optimistic than you seem to be! Ever hear of hope springing eternal? Let me give you a bit of a reality check here...

First, I dont understand how can you be so worried about the bad Spring Training numbers of some but then with the good ST numbers ( ie Blanco, Cabrera, Belt) you seem oddly dismissive or unimpressed, as if only the poor numbers matter. Do the numbers matter or do they not? They either all matter or they all dont...you can't pick and choose which do and which don't.

Buster has passed every physical test the Giants laid out for him this spring. Not one setback. Yes he will be getting more days off but at this point everything has checked out a-ok. Will he put up good numbers? We can speculate that he should, but only time will tell...just like only time will tell if Pujols wont flop this year or Votto or Braun or Fielder...no guarantees for anyone. But for each of those players (including Buster), there is more reason to believe they will produce than not.

Melky is not WHAT kind of guy? To me he seems like a speedy sure-handed OF who can flat out hit. What part of that is a bad thing? Or is it just that you want the Giants to hold Nate's hand until he can finally hold onto a job that was his to lose entering ST?

Still wondering what you're worried about with Huff. Belt staying up means the writing is on the wall for Huff. Here's the dealio...if Aubrey hits, then he plays on the same kind of deal as Burrell had in '10, being replaced for defense late in games when we're leading. If he doesn't hit then he rides pine or gets cut loose. And then maybe Nate will get his 100th chance at playing everyday.

Tim's numbers...really?? Really??? Are you going to force Rog to pull out the bad spring numbers of other aces? For example, Trevor Cahill, who AZ gave up a mint for, has been getting rocked unmercifully. Tim is healthy, he's young, he's motivated and he's strong...that's all i care about for now. What more need he prove to you after 2 CY awards and one Babe Ruth award? I say again...REALLY??

Zito...ok, first off, he's only a #4 while we go with a 4 man rotation during Vogey's DL stint. Then he goes back to #5...and as Ive been stating for years, the slotting of rotation numbers is purely for scheduling purposes. Once the season starts, the numbers 1 through 5 are decided by performance...but I think pretty much any team would take our 5 starters in a flash, without a second thought...even with Barry.

Deep breaths Boly. The season hasnt started yet.

~Dood

[Islandboagie]

Randy, I agree with most of what you said here, but you are also contradicting yourself with your take on spring training. You're chastising Boly for putting too much importance in spring training, when it comes to Pagan, Huff and Lincecum, bad stats in spring are okay, but yet you argue Schierholtz has lost his job in RF because of a poor spring. Schierholtz was likely our best hitter behind Pablo last year, he's also our best right fielder. Why is Pagan's spot safe, and Nate is now a bench player? IF anyone should have lost his job this spring, it should have been Pagan. Blanco had arguably the best spring, while Pagan had the worst.

[sfgdood]

My take on ST numbers goes like this. Some jobs are going to be safe and others arent. It's never going to be level for everyone. Players who have proven themselves in past seasons are not going to lose their jobs in most cases due to a bad spring. As Allen said, Lincecum had a bad spring...yet you don't see him dropped from the rotation.

Secondly, I generally don't get too excited about good ST numbers...we all saw Huff rake in the Cactus League last year only to fail miserably in the regular season. That said, it's encouraging for some players like Belt or Crawford who had things to work on in the offseason. Not saying each will have a regular season to match their spring numbers but improvement over last year is likely.

Nate has been good in small stints over the years and he is a brilliant fielder. But the reality for him is he has never put things together for a full season. Pagan's career has had much more success to it...at least in Bochy's opinion, which is the one that counts most. So, Im not saying Nate losing his job was fair when Pagan had an even less impressive spring... but it is fair to say that Nate had less rope to start with, whether you agree with that posture or not.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

No question Aubrey Huff is mediocre at best in left field, but is he worse out there than Pat Burrell?

Angel Pagan is considered to be at least an average center fielder.

Melky Cabrera is considered to be a good corner outfielder. He has enough speed that he has played most of his career in center field, and he has a very strong arm.

Meanwhile the Giants have the speedy Gregor Blanco and strong-armed Nate Schierholtz as backups.

If Huff is just too bad in left, the Giants could always exchange his position with Brandon Belt. Belt is no gazelle in left either, but he has decent speed and a rifle arm.

Even with Huff in left, unless Aubrey is truly poor out there, isn't the Giants' outfield defense at least average? Especially when one considers that the Giants can use Schierholtz and/or Blanco for late-inning defense?

As for Nate's being a brilliant fielder, it seems that way, but the metrics don't seem to back it up. I wonder if we are overly impressed by Nate's arm and disregard what may be no better than average range. Nate had a game this week where he misplayed no fewer than three balls. Likely an abberation, but that's a lot of misplays for one game.

That said, he's certainly no worse than average in right field. And once he has the ball in his hand, there are few right fielders who know better what to do with it.

I don't see defense as being a problem for this team. Posey is considered to be well above average defensively, possibly among the best. Burriss has shown flashes of brilliance on the infield, and Belt, Sandoval and Crawford each appear to be capable of winning a Gold Glove.

As mentioned, the outfield isn't bad, even with Huff in left. Let's not forget that most left fielders aren't very good defensively.

So I'm just not seeing the defensive weakness. If anything, I believe it could be a strength. If the hitting is as good as the defense, I think the Giants will be just fine.

[klaiggeb]

Rog: I remember. We were in 1st.

But I also remember that Arizona had NOT yet found their confidence, or their style, or their focus.

They're a much, much different team now.

And without Vogelsong, and WITH Zito at # 4, we are no longer the better staff. Right now, Arizona's starters are better, IMHO.

boly

[klaiggeb]

Wow Boly...and here I thought you were jumping the gun last year when at least you waited until the season was a full 2 weeks old to abandon ship. If I recall correctly, you were worried that we would never be able to catch the Rockies who had jumped out to a 12-2 start or something like that...before they finished 4th in the division. You need to rediscover your patience, brother.

*****boly says: THIS is exactly why I said, "I'm NOT panicing, so don't tell me I am."

I'm not. I'm simply calling things as I see them, and what I see is not pleasant.

Before you get your tightie whities in a wad over SPRING TRAINING numbers, keep in mind that just about every team in baseball could produce a panic list as impressive as yours. Every year every player on every roster is a question mark, because previous production is no guarantee...but geeze louise, even A's fans are more optimistic than you seem to be! Ever hear of hope springing eternal? Let me give you a bit of a reality check here...

First, I dont understand how can you be so worried about the bad Spring Training numbers of some but then with the good ST numbers ( ie Blanco, Cabrera, Belt) you seem oddly dismissive or unimpressed, as if only the poor numbers matter. Do the numbers matter or do they not? They either all matter or they all dont...you can't pick and choose which do and which don't.

******** boly says: I'm not concerned about guys who are hitting BECAUSE they are hitting. They are seeing the ball, and reacting.

I get concerned with veterans, who NEVER found their stroke during the spring; and Pagan fits that mold.

Buster has passed every physical test the Giants laid out for him this spring. Not one setback. Yes he will be getting more days off but at this point everything has checked out a-ok. Will he put up good numbers? We can speculate that he should, but only time will tell...just like only time will tell if Pujols wont flop this year or Votto or Braun or Fielder...no guarantees for anyone. But for each of those players (including Buster), there is more reason to believe they will produce than not.

*******boly says: EVERY post I've made about Buster always dealt with the severity of the injury. And I hate to thump my chest here, and I apologize in advance, but I was THE first one to point out that the damage was going to be worse than a break.

And it was. And is.

I look at the history of ankle/wrist injuries. Now for sure, a wrist injury is worse for a hitter, but for catcher's, and ankle injury, IMHO, ranks a close second.

All I'm saying about Buster is this: Don't expect him to be what he was, right away. That's all.

Melky is not WHAT kind of guy? To me he seems like a speedy sure-handed OF who can flat out hit. What part of that is a bad thing? Or is it just that you want the Giants to hold Nate's hand until he can finally hold onto a job that was his to lose entering ST?

********boly says: Dood, you totally missed my point. I was talking about Melkey's defense. His ability to go get the fly ball, Nothing more.

I've watched him play, and he simple does not have the range to play a good CF, or RF in our park.

He's fast, yes, but Nate and Pagan, and Torres, just to name 3, are better outfielders, NOT including arms.



Still wondering what you're worried about with Huff. Belt staying up means the writing is on the wall for Huff. Here's the dealio...if Aubrey hits, then he plays on the same kind of deal as Burrell had in '10, being replaced for defense late in games when we're leading. If he doesn't hit then he rides pine or gets cut loose. And then maybe Nate will get his 100th chance at playing everyday.

********boly says; Firstly, I don't want Huff in the lineup at all. BUT, IF he's in the line up, for me, he plays 1B, and Belt is in LF. Belt runs better and throws better. Period.

Huff will hurt us more in the OF because of what he can't do, more than he'll hurt us at 1B.

Tim's numbers...really?? Really??? Are you going to force Rog to pull out the bad spring numbers of other aces? For example, Trevor Cahill, who AZ gave up a mint for, has been getting rocked unmercifully. Tim is healthy, he's young, he's motivated and he's strong...that's all i care about for now. What more need he prove to you after 2 CY awards and one Babe Ruth award? I say again...REALLY??

**********boly says: Dood, I don't care how many Cy Young's he's won. He is simply NOT the same pitcher he was in 2010. Not by a long shot.

I contend, and I've posted this over and over and over again, that his awful mechanics cost him. It costs him velocity, break on the breaking balls, movement on the fast ball.

WHEN he was younger, his body could compensate and it was okay.

But now, he's got a lot of innings on that body, and I believe it's taking its toll.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope Rog, and you and everyone are right about him. \

Rog and I have discussed this at length. Tim "seems" to be throwing more strikes. And that's a good thing.

But we'll see once the year begins.

IF I were running the ship, My rotation would read like this:

Cain
Madison
Lincecum
anyone NOT named Zito
Zito

Zito...ok, first off, he's only a #4 while we go with a 4 man rotation during Vogey's DL stint. Then he goes back to #5...and as Ive been stating for years, the slotting of rotation numbers is purely for scheduling purposes. Once the season starts, the numbers 1 through 5 are decided by performance...but I think pretty much any team would take our 5 starters in a flash, without a second thought...even with Barry.

Deep breaths Boly. The season hasnt started yet.

**********boly says: Again, you mis read my post, Randy. I said I wasn't panicing, and I'm not. We've got a long way to go. Lots of changes can and will come.

I just want a HEALTHY team this year.



********By the way, I'm on vaction for a week, and won't be back until the 16th of April.

boly


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[Islandboagie]

Apr 5, 2012 21:00:54 GMT -5 klaiggeb said:

And without Vogelsong, and WITH Zito at # 4, we are no longer the better staff. Right now, Arizona's starters are better, IMHO.

boly

You got me here, Boly, I sat here for a bit trying to figure out how to respond to this one.

I do think however, that if Sabean called up Kevin Towers and offered Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner and Zito (contract aside) for their top 4, Towers would probably shit himself...and then go help Ian Kennedy pack.

[sharksrog]

Buster Posey is expected to play behind the plate in each game of the Arizona. If he gets through that well, I think we can relax a little. Heck, I'm ALREADY relaxed.

Hector Sanchez is expected to start the first game of the Colorado series. I would think the Giants would give Buster that day off, but if he were to play first base, that would REALLY be a great sign. Even if he can, I would expect the Giants to play it safe.

When Boly said that Tim wasn't pitching as well as in 2010, I think he meant 2008 and 2009. 2010 was Tim's worst full season.

Here's hoping Boly has a great vacation. I have a sneaky feeling he might be sailing.

The Giants have some question to answer, but I think it is far too soon to get down on them. Their pitching should still be good; the hitting might be better than in the World Championship season of 2010; and their defense could be better than in years.

Apparently Nate Schierholtz will be the defensive replacement for Aubrey Huff. Someone asked if the Giants might bat Aubrey 3rd in order to sometimes add an inning to the time he can be removed from the outfield.

If Aubrey hits well enough, that could well happen. Heck, Aubrey doesn't hit into too many double plays and hits the ball to right field. Maybe he could even bat 2nd, although that would be forcing the situation a bit. Aubrey does hit a fair number of ground balls though, which should help advance runners. And indeed he did a good job of doing so despite his poor 2011 season.

[allenreed]

If Huff is just too bad in left, the Giants could always exchange his position with Brandon Belt. Belt is no gazelle in left either, but he has decent speed and a rifle arm.

Allen-Can you tell me why we're not doing this from the get? Belt has more range, a better arm, and is a better fielder. After the debacle of last year, why is Huff even being considered for the outfield?

[sfgdood]

Huff reported in far better shape this year and is far better able to handle the outfield than he was last year. The Giants played him in enough games there this Spring to feel comfortable that he could handle it. Belt, though faster, isn't all that comfortable out there, and since Brandon is far better at first, the Giants feel the defense, overall, would be better with Huff in LF.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

That's a pretty darn good summary of the situation, Randy.

By the way, anyone notice the two really smooth backhanded digs by Buster Posey at first the other day? Made them look routine. Buster doesn't run very well -- except by catchers' standards, and not great even there -- but he surely has soft hands.

On another front, one of the projection systems has Brandon Belt projected to have the 17th-best OBP in the league. Brandon was quite aggressive in spring training, so both his walks and strikeouts may be cut down.

But a guy who even projects to get on base that often as a young player is a nice weapon to have.