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Post by allenreed on Jul 17, 2013 21:38:20 GMT -5
He's learning to pitch to contact and therefore keep his pitch count down, something Lincecum hasn't mastered yet.
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Post by allenreed on Jul 17, 2013 21:54:24 GMT -5
I have seen both Crick and Brown dominate in San Jose. If you give up top prospects like these, you want to get proven assets in return...not 4.29 ERA clowns. And Lincecum has shown us all that he can easily be a dominator once again. I'd rather it be with us.
Allen- You've seen them dominate where? San Jose, A ball. When Brown went to a higher level, he's been anything but dominant. I'll admit to knowing nothing at all about Crick. 4.29 ERA clown? What's Timmy's ERA right now? What was it last year? Norris' current ERA is 3.63. He pitches in a park where left field is just a bit farther than Little League distance. I'm thinking he'd do a little better at AT&T. And of course there's the financial part. Even if Bud's salary is doubled, he comes in at $6 million, or $16 million less than Timmy. Think you might get another good player with that $16 million?
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jul 18, 2013 0:45:40 GMT -5
Allen- You've seen them dominate where? San Jose, A ball. When Brown went to a higher level, he's been anything but dominant. I'll admit to knowing nothing at all about Crick.
Dood - You're right that all Ive seen from these guys is from the High A California League. But I guarantee I've seen more of these guys than anyone else on here. What i tell you about Gary Brown is less about what stats he put up and more about the pure talent he has. I say has because it doesn't just go away. Does he have things to learn? It would certainly appear so. But the pure speed, the strong, accurate arm, the ability to hit for power (relative to his position)...you can't teach these things. His defense is better than any OF we have at any level, including the big league level. The only better arm is Franceour's. I don't see him as a great leadoff man--at least not right away--but he's a good gap to gap hitter with some good pop. My belief is the Giants are holding him back because they are married to him being a leadoff hitter.
That's what I saw in San Jose...can't speak to whatever has gone on after. My belief is the Giants are holding him back because they ONLY see him as a leadoff man. He has the talent to contribute now in another role, but they don't want that from him.
4.29 ERA clown? What's Timmy's ERA right now? What was it last year? Norris' current ERA is 3.63.
Dood - You REALLY don't want to go stat for stat with Lincecum if you're Norris. Lincecum's first 4 full seasons in the big leagues went 2.62, 2.48, 3.43 and 2.74. Lincecum's career ERA is lower than Bud's best year (this one). That's including the last 2 years which you enjoy so much telling us have been horrible.
Put simply, Lincecum's got the goods. Norris can only dream of having an ounce of Tim's talent.
And of course there's the financial part. Even if Bud's salary is doubled, he comes in at $6 million, or $16 million less than Timmy. Think you might get another good player with that $16 million?
Dood - We already have a WS winning roster. I don't really see a huge need to add to it all that much. Look, Bud's a Bay Area guy so I'm rooting for him. Furthermore he's a fellow Cal Poly Mustang so that's another reason for me to like him. I just don't feel the overwhelming need to panic in the midst of a tough, injury-riddled season, gut our farm system which is already thin as it is, and put our eggs in the basket of a guy who, despite a decent year THUS FAR, has been a below average pitcher for the totality of his big league career. If the Stros want some of our lesser prospects, fine...I don't expect they will, but to me this is a guy who will not be a positive part of any championship rotation...there's a reason he's pulling such a low salary. He hasn't done anything to deserve more. If the Giants want to go cheap, I can see them bringing in a low cost vet to keep Crick's spot warm for him...either that or just keep Gaudin in the rotation.
~Dood
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jul 18, 2013 0:52:53 GMT -5
Oh, and by the way, being a righty, the Houston Crawford Boxes in LF don't hurt Norris NEARLY as much they would if he were a lefty.
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Jul 18, 2013 11:06:38 GMT -5
Allen- You've seen them dominate where? San Jose, A ball. When Brown went to a higher level, he's been anything but dominant. I'll admit to knowing nothing at all about Crick. Dood - You're right that all Ive seen from these guys is from the High A California League. But I guarantee I've seen more of these guys than anyone else on here. What i tell you about Gary Brown is less about what stats he put up and more about the pure talent he has. I say has because it doesn't just go away. Does he have things to learn? It would certainly appear so. But the pure speed, the strong, accurate arm, the ability to hit for power (relative to his position)...you can't teach these things. His defense is better than any OF we have at any level, including the big league level. The only better arm is Franceour's. I don't see him as a great leadoff man--at least not right away--but he's a good gap to gap hitter with some good pop. My belief is the Giants are holding him back because they are married to him being a leadoff hitter. Allen- You may be right, I've seen him play once. Didn't see anything special. Better defensively than Blanco? Again, I'd have to see it. The Giants are holding him back? Sounds like one of Don's Jason Ellison conspiracy theories. Maybe he's just blocked by better players. That's what I saw in San Jose...can't speak to whatever has gone on after. My belief is the Giants are holding him back because they ONLY see him as a leadoff man. He has the talent to contribute now in another role, but they don't want that from him. Allen- What role is that, and why wouldn't the Giants want that? 4.29 ERA clown? What's Timmy's ERA right now? What was it last year? Norris' current ERA is 3.63. Dood - You REALLY don't want to go stat for stat with Lincecum if you're Norris. Lincecum's first 4 full seasons in the big leagues went 2.62, 2.48, 3.43 and 2.74. Lincecum's career ERA is lower than Bud's best year (this one). That's including the last 2 years which you enjoy so much telling us have been horrible. Put simply, Lincecum's got the goods. Norris can only dream of having an ounce of Tim's talent. Allen- May be overstating it a bit. Tim had the goods. Doesn't now. Fact is, Tim's been stealing the Giants' money for the last two seasons. Talk is that is days as a starter are done. Teams contemplating a trade for Tim are talking of him as a reliever. Thing is, you could probably get equal performance out of Tim and Norris right now, and Bud is alot more cost efficient. You can pay Bud and another very good player for what Tim would cost you. And of course there's the financial part. Even if Bud's salary is doubled, he comes in at $6 million, or $16 million less than Timmy. Think you might get another good player with that $16 million? Dood - We already have a WS winning roster. Allen- You think we'll win the series this year? I'll take some of that action. I don't really see a huge need to add to it all that much. Allen- You don't see the other teams in the division improving? Don't think we'll have to improve to keep up? We need from 1-3 starters, and someone who can hit the ball over the wall once in awhile. Look, Bud's a Bay Area guy so I'm rooting for him. Furthermore he's a fellow Cal Poly Mustang so that's another reason for me to like him. I just don't feel the overwhelming need to panic in the midst of a tough, injury-riddled season, gut our farm system which is already thin as it is, and put our eggs in the basket of a guy who, despite a decent year THUS FAR, has been a below average pitcher for the totality of his big league career. If the Stros want some of our lesser prospects, fine...I don't expect they will, but to me this is a guy who will not be a positive part of any championship rotation...there's a reason he's pulling such a low salary. He hasn't done anything to deserve more. If the Giants want to go cheap, I can see them bringing in a low cost vet to keep Crick's spot warm for him...either that or just keep Gaudin in the rotation. Allen- Who said anything about gutting the farm system? The reason Bud makes such a low salary is because he hasn't been around long enough. Same reason Mike Trout is making $510K this season. I'd keep Gaudin until he proves he can't do it. But Timmy and Zito need to be replaced. We'll see about Vogey.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jul 18, 2013 12:03:00 GMT -5
Brown can go and get them just as well as Blanco, maybe better. He definitely has the better arm of the two. In fact, Juan Perez is better than Blanco too, IMO. Juan also has a great arm...Gary and Gregor both get better jumps on the ball than Juan.
Not saying there's a conspiracy to keep Brown down. Just saying the Giants are convinced that Gary MUST be their leadoff man when he could be up now, playing great defense and hitting down in the order. The acquisition of retread Franceour basically convinced me this was the case.
Lincecum still has the goods. I don't know if you realize this but Tim is only a year older than Norris. He may seem older because he's accomplished so much in such a short time. He doesn't throw as hard as he used to but his breaking pitches and his splitter make his fastball seem a lot quicker. The next thing he'll develop, IMO, is a cutter. That's usually an easier pitch to control and can get off the barrel. If Tim continues to dominate as he has his last two starts, he'll be worth a big contract, whether he gets it here or takes his services elsewhere.
Didn't say we'll win another ring this year. We have the roster in place but without Pagan it will be tough to duplicate last year, although there is a chance still. I wouldn't bet on it. We need to have someone on base ahead of Scutaro more often in order to get max production from Posey and Panda. The loss of Vogey hurt in many ways, as did Casilla's injury.
Of course we'll need to improve...that's obvious. But improving doesn't always mean changing the roster. It means staying healthy and it also means young guys improving, becoming more consistent. The two Brandons have to do that. It could also mean improving within the organization. I think Ive spoken to that already.
I'm not ready to completely dismantle the rotation that was so dominant in the WS against the best offense in baseball less than a year ago. I have faith that all of them--except maybe Zito--will be able to get back to top form or reasonably close. I suppose Gaudin can hold down the #5 spot if we can't find a better alternative.
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 18, 2013 13:48:31 GMT -5
Mark -- Dood, what's Bud Norris' career ERA? LOL! ERA is certainly an important stat, but it's the only stat you're looking at. Besides, he's pitching in a bandbox, what would his ERA be at AT&T? The telling stat to me is his K-BB totals and they're excellent. He strikes out almost a batter an inning and that shows dominant stuff. He's young enough and also has two years left before free agency. The only thing that scares me is that his K total has dropped a little this year. (81 in 114 innings) Assuming he's healthy and there's no velocity drop I would trade Brown and Panik for him without a doubt, although I'd try to keep Panik and offer up someone else. Blackburn and Crick are legit and off limits in my opinion, especially Crick. Rog -- Nicely summarized, Mark. Because they just re-signed their second baseman (Almanza) for four years, I doubt they would be interested in Panik. Pitching is what trade partners will want. The Giants have a lot of it, but they still should be careful about giving up prospects such as Stratton and the other guy at San Jose. You have to give to get though, so if the Giants are truly serious about Norris, I would think something could be worked out. With his contract status, Norris should be considered a deadline plum. I too worry about the drop in strikeouts, but it appears Bud has changed his pitching style a bit and is pitching to contract. He's getting 65% of his first pitches in for strikes. That's 10% higher than last season. I can understand why Randy is hesitant to give up Brown. Gary had a tremendous 2011 season, and Randy got to see some of it. Brown has tremendous speed to utilize in the outfield and on the bases. His fine arm make him a pretty complete outfielder. (He has been compared to Juan Perez -- or actually, vice versa.) Gary's lack of base stealing instincts hurt his overall ability on the bases. He can steal a base, but he often gets thrown out trying to do so. Gary's issue since his excellent all-around season at San Jose has been the bat. Some scouts say he gets slappy, although he has hit a goodly number of home runs for a leadoff man. He does have a problem getting on base though, and his OBP the last I looked was only .301. In a hitters' league, that's not good. And Gary isn't young for his level. He'll turn 25 before yearend. Whether or not to trade Brown comes down to two things: What can he bring, and how do the Giants' scouts rate him? Two years ago Brown was rated right there with Zack Wheeler. Now he barely makes some of the top 10 Giants prospects for some scouts, although he ranked as high as #4 by others. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1896&page=1#12763#ixzz2ZQK07yae
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 18, 2013 14:03:54 GMT -5
Randy -- My belief is the Giants are holding him back because they are married to him being a leadoff hitter. Rog -- My belief is the Giants are holding him back because they don't think he's close to being ready -- or least that is what they're saying. Gary had a marvelous June with a striking .910 OPS. But he was only .535 in April, .692 in May and .694 so far this month. Really, Randy, would you call up a guy hitting .242 at Fresno who you are hoping will become a valued regular? The HIGHEST Gary has hit in a given month at Fresno is .278 in June. And his OBP was only .336. BEST month in AAA. I think there is more than a possible future role as a leadoff hitter that is keeping Gary in Fresno. You have the advantage over me of having seen much more of Brown, Randy. You had him rated a lot higher in 2011 than I did. I hope you are right, but thus far since then I have been the closer of us two. I'd LOVE to see you get the last laugh -- and hopefully it wouldnt be after the Giants had traded Gary! Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1896&page=2#ixzz2ZQOftBu3
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Post by allenreed on Jul 18, 2013 14:09:21 GMT -5
Brown can go and get them just as well as Blanco, maybe better. He definitely has the better arm of the two. In fact, Juan Perez is better than Blanco too, IMO. Juan also has a great arm...Gary and Gregor both get better jumps on the ball than Juan. Allen- If you say so. You watch these guys. I'd like to, but I'm not going to spend gas money to drive down to San Jose, plus take the risk of getting shot. Too bad they can't put an occasional minor league game on TV. Isn't Channel 36 out of San Jose. Couldn't we get a game on there instead of endless Big Bang Theory reruns? Not saying there's a conspiracy to keep Brown down. Just saying the Giants are convinced that Gary MUST be their leadoff man when he could be up now, playing great defense and hitting down in the order. The acquisition of retread Franceour basically convinced me this was the case. Allen- Maybe they think Gary could progress better at the minor league level. He hasn't exactly mastered AAA yet. If they thought he was ready, and convinced he could only lead off, why wouldn't they have brought him up when Pagan went down? Lincecum still has the goods. I don't know if you realize this but Tim is only a year older than Norris. He may seem older because he's accomplished so much in such a short time. He doesn't throw as hard as he used to but his breaking pitches and his splitter make his fastball seem a lot quicker. The next thing he'll develop, IMO, is a cutter. That's usually an easier pitch to control and can get off the barrel. If Tim continues to dominate as he has his last two starts, he'll be worth a big contract, whether he gets it here or takes his services elsewhere. Allen- Oh, he'll get a big contract with someone. There's always an idiot out there. I like Tim, but he just has too many problems to be worth $20+ million. For that, you should get an established, consistent ace. Not a guy who's in and out, loses focus, doesn't hold runners on or back up bases. Didn't say we'll win another ring this year. We have the roster in place but without Pagan it will be tough to duplicate last year, although there is a chance still. I wouldn't bet on it. We need to have someone on base ahead of Scutaro more often in order to get max production from Posey and Panda. The loss of Vogey hurt in many ways, as did Casilla's injury. Of course we'll need to improve...that's obvious. But improving doesn't always mean changing the roster. It means staying healthy and it also means young guys improving, becoming more consistent. The two Brandons have to do that. It could also mean improving within the organization. I think Ive spoken to that already. Allen- I'm of the opinion that if you can improve your team, you do it. Your never good enough, and you never stand pat. I'm not ready to completely dismantle the rotation that was so dominant in the WS against the best offense in baseball less than a year ago. I have faith that all of them--except maybe Zito--will be able to get back to top form or reasonably close. I suppose Gaudin can hold down the #5 spot if we can't find a better alternative. Allen- This numbering of starters seems pretty arbitrary to me, but do you see Gaudin as the #5 right now. He's outperforming Lincecum, Cain and Zito. Right now if I were ranking them I would put Lincecum 4 and Zito 5. That's $42 million for your 4 and 5 starters. We have to do better than that.
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Post by allenreed on Jul 18, 2013 14:16:07 GMT -5
Houston's second baseman is Jose Altuve. The last Almanza to play in the majors was Armando Almanza who last pitched for the DBacks in 2005.
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 18, 2013 14:22:35 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jul 18, 2013 23:24:55 GMT -5
Really, Randy, would you call up a guy hitting .242 at Fresno who you are hoping will become a valued regular? The HIGHEST Gary has hit in a given month at Fresno is .278 in June. And his OBP was only .336.
Dood - I've got a lot more faith in Gary than I do in Jeff Franceour. He was on the scrap heap not long ago.
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 19, 2013 13:14:14 GMT -5
Rog -- Really, Randy, would you call up a guy hitting .242 at Fresno who you are hoping will become a valued regular? The HIGHEST Gary has hit in a given month at Fresno is .278 in June. And his OBP was only .336. Dood - I've got a lot more faith in Gary than I do in Jeff Franceour. He was on the scrap heap not long ago. Rog -- The same was true with Pat Burrell, and that one worked out pretty well. IMO here are the reasons the Giants didn't bring up Gary: . They don't think he's nearly ready. . They don't want to bring him up to play only against southpaws, and the lefty-hitting Gregor Blanco and Kensuke Tanaka presently own the playing time against righties. Tanaka's OBP at Fresno of .409. With a Fresno OBP of just .294 against righties, Gary doesn't yet seem prepared to play fulltime in the majors. Franceouer makes sense as a platoon player. . If he is going to develop into the Giants' center fielder at some point (a real possibility), it would seem playing every day would benefit him most. He is able to do that at Fresno. For the good of the Giants and for Gary himself, it is good the Giants left him to ripen further. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1896&page=2#12819#ixzz2ZVzzLmS2
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 19, 2013 14:45:18 GMT -5
Allen -- 4.29 ERA clown? What's Timmy's ERA right now? What was it last year? Norris' current ERA is 3.63. Rog -- Bud Norris certainly isn't a clown. Even at 4.29 he wouldn't be a clown, and as Allen points out, he has been clearly better than that this season. On the other hand, Allen is cherry picking a bit with the ERA thing. Tim's career ERA is 0.89 runs better than Bud's. If we take the past three seasons, Tim still has the lead. If we take the past two, Bud takes over. If we go back to last year's All-Star game, it's almost a dead heat. If we take this season, Bud has the edge. If we take June and July, the advantage shifts to Tim. Tim also enjoys the edge in July only, and he pitched a no-hitter in his last start, whereas Bud gave up 7 earned runs. When money enters the picture, Norris at $3 million easily wins out over Lincecum. No point in even discussing the obvious. But when it comes down to whether Tim or Bud is the better pitcher RIGHT NOW, it depends on the timeframe one considers for comparison. Allen has focused on this season, and Bud clearly wins that one. But if we go back a year, it's pretty much a dead heat (4.03 for Bud; 4.07 for Tim. And if we take their last start, it's Tim in a landslide, just as it is over the full month of July to date. If we go back to June 1st, Tim gets the edge, 3.16 to 3.53. Tim also wins April 3.64 to 4.20. Tim had a lousy May. Other than that, he actually has the edge over Bud this season. Bud is no clown; either he or Tim could be the prince, depending on one's timeframe. Both Randy and Allen are choosing their timeframes to their advantage. Maybe here's a way to look at it: . Tim is the clear career winner. . He also wins over the past three seasons, but Bud wins over the past two years. . They are almost dead even since last year's All-Star game. . This season Bud has the edge over the entire season, but Tim has won April, June and July to date. I'd have to put my money on Tim going forward, but to ignore the argument for either is seeing only part of the picture. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1896&page=2#ixzz2ZWPB5uB6
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 19, 2013 15:20:54 GMT -5
Randy -- Just saying the Giants are convinced that Gary MUST be their leadoff man when he could be up now, playing great defense and hitting down in the order. The acquisition of retread Franceour basically convinced me this was the case. Rog -- Clearly you saw what you wanted to see, Randy. The Giants have a satisfactory leadoff man in Blanco/Torres, so there is no need to have Gary lead off. The problem is that he's hitting like an 8-hole hitter in AAA. Will Francouer work out? Who knows. But his role is a small one at present, one that could grow as his performance merits. Weren't you happy when the Giants signed Francouer to a minor league contract? I know I certainly was. A very low-risk move, and still is. I have thought Jeff was overrated over his career, but at least he's played at an acceptable major league level. If the Giants felt Brown were ready, he would be up -- whether to bat leadoff, 2nd, 7th or 8th. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1896&page=2#ixzz2ZWSrqsFx
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 19, 2013 15:23:03 GMT -5
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Post by allenreed on Jul 19, 2013 16:26:10 GMT -5
I think I was simply responding to Randy's assertion that Tim is worth $20 million. As for Norris vs, Lincecum, you can't discount the money part of it. The two right now are pretty comparable as pitchers, but you can have Norris and another very good player for what you would have to pay Tim. That makes Norris the better deal. Let's also not forget that Norris pitches in a tiny park, and that he's been struggling with a non-competitive situation pitching for the worst team in baseball for almost his entire ML career. That shouldn't be a factor, but it wears on you after awhile. I think coming home, moving to a competitive tean, and pitching in a bigger park would make him a better pitcher than he is now.
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 19, 2013 18:19:03 GMT -5
Allen -- I think I was simply responding to Randy's assertion that Tim is worth $20 million. Rog -- I missed that Randy said that. You know how much I like Tim, but he certainly hasn't been worth the $40 million he has earned the past two seasons. I'm surprised Randy said he has been. Allen -- As for Norris vs, Lincecum, you can't discount the money part of it. Rog -- We can if we're talking performance only. Obviously there is no comparison if we're talking value. Going forward, Tim will make a LOT of money, while Bud might make something like $6 million and $9 million the next two seasons. Bud would indeed appear to be the better investment this winter. Allen -- The two right now are pretty comparable as pitchers, but you can have Norris and another very good player for what you would have to pay Tim. That makes Norris the better deal. Rog -- Pretty hard to argue that. The problem with Tim going forward is that his team will be paying a premium for his former success, while he has shown the past two seasons that he is a risk. If Tim had pitched well these past two seasons, he might have signed a contract for the highest annual value of any pitcher in history. Heck, if he returns over the second half to being the Tim Lincecum of old, he might approach that figure anyway. But how do you know for sure which Lincecum you'll get -- the Cy Young guy of 2008/2009, the very good pitcher of 2010/2011, or the not so good guy of 2012 and 2013 to date? The market is thin, so a strong second half by Tim this year will likely ensure he'll make in the neighborhood of what he's made the past two seasons. But how do you really count on him to be worth it? He'll be a gamble. High risk/high reward. Allen -- Let's also not forget that Norris pitches in a tiny park, and that he's been struggling with a non-competitive situation pitching for the worst team in baseball for almost his entire ML career. That shouldn't be a factor, but it wears on you after awhile. I think coming home, moving to a competitive tean, and pitching in a bigger park would make him a better pitcher than he is now. Rog -- I would be satisfied if Bud could continue on at his level of this season. The Astros should be in no real rush to get rid of him, although one might also argue that his value is as high now as it ever will be as an Astro. If the Giants could acquire him without giving up the farm, I'm all for it. But his being under team control for another two years makes him a valuable commodity. I would think he would command a dear price -- quite possibly more than the Giants should go for him. I think the Giants' biggest need right now lies in the outfield. I think the Giants' best chance to trade for Bud would come if they could do so over the winter. Of course, he may not still be available then. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1896&page=2#12841#ixzz2ZXFxrhhf
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jul 19, 2013 18:22:28 GMT -5
A) Blanco is borderline "satisfactory" as a leadoff hitter...OBP at .339, 10 steals in 15 attempts. Torres, not so much...309 OBP, 3 steals in 5 attempts.
B) If it was right for Brandon Crawford to come up solely as a great defender, why is it not right for Brown? Clearly Crawford was way overmatched offensively in his first two years in the big leagues but nobody here seemed to mind because he plays great defense. Brown can play outfield defense better than anyone else we have.
C) I wasn't doing cartwheels and screaming for joy when either Francouer or Burrell were acquired. I wasn't angry either because they were no risk moves. But there were reasons each ended up on the scrap heap and it's only a matter of time before Jeff reminds us of that. Will we get any production out of him? Nobody knows but we know for a fact his defense and speed doesn't match Brown's.
D) I never said Lincecum, as of now, was WORTH $20 million...what I said was paying him market value may end up being our best option.
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Jul 19, 2013 20:25:15 GMT -5
Thing is, his market value may be determined by some fool that will overpay, maybe by alot. If that's the case, his market value will far ouweigh his actual value. I could have swore that somewhere along the line you said Tim was worth five years at $20 million per year. I'm still thinking our best option is to try to trade Tim if we could, if not, we have to let him walk and use his money to get a comparable pitcher and perhaps an outfielder who can hit with some power. (if you can get one to play here) I think Norris may be the cheapest option, depending of course, on what you have to give to get him.
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 20, 2013 14:35:16 GMT -5
Randy -- A) Blanco is borderline "satisfactory" as a leadoff hitter...OBP at .339, 10 steals in 15 attempts. Torres, not so much...309 OBP, 3 steals in 5 attempts. Rog -- I understand your point, although Torres had hit much better than that out of the leadoff position. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I have noticed a trend for you to overreact when a player you particularly like (perhaps from seeing him in San Jose) doesn't fare all that well (Brandon Belt and now Gary Brown). I too supported Belt and have been disappointed by his play (although I would consider it underrated a bit). I certainly haven't given up on him, and in fact, if he can duplicate his late season of 2012, he'll wind up with a very nice season. But I've also tried to be realistic. He's quite a streak hitter who is good when he's good but can be really bad for a long period. As for Brown, you and I disagreed on him from the beginning. You saw what was a wonderful season at San Jose two years ago. I can see how you're excited. I haven't had the pleasure of seeing him play much (and never in person), but his high strikeouts and low walks worried me. I was concerned that despite his excellent speed, he got thrown out a high percentage of the time when he tried to steal. Gary still has time to build his career, but more and more the scouts seem to coming around to my way of thinking. There are a lot of questions about him, his stroke in particular. I haven't seen enough of him to make any kind of educated judgment, but I do know some of the scouts have concern. Gary has strengths -- his great speed, his defense (including a strong arm) and a goodly pop for a leadoff man. But his hitting and getting on base enough to be a leadoff man are coming more and more into question. Next season would be a marvelous time for Gary to show he can be a major league starter. With Pagan coming off a serious injury, the timing would be great for Gary to step in as the center fielder, with Pagan shifting to left. Gary greatly improved his hitting in June, and his July to date has been much better than his April and May. On the other hand his BEST month's OBP (June) was only .336. It appears he's not ready, and that is what the Giants say they believe as well. I know it would be exciting for you to see Brown come up this season. But the Giants clearly feel they would be hurting both him and the overall team by doing so. B) If it was right for Brandon Crawford to come up solely as a great defender, why is it not right for Brown? Rog -- Because he doesn't play as important a defensive position, and he wouldn't be replacing a horribly struggling Miguel Tejada. Randy -- Clearly Crawford was way overmatched offensively in his first two years in the big leagues but nobody here seemed to mind because he plays great defense. Brown can play outfield defense better than anyone else we have. Rog -- You make good points here, but the Giants hurting at shortstop then even more than they are hurting in the outfield now. In addition, I would be surprised if they don't make a deal for an outfielder. Randy -- C) I wasn't doing cartwheels and screaming for joy when either Francouer or Burrell were acquired. I wasn't angry either because they were no risk moves. But there were reasons each ended up on the scrap heap and it's only a matter of time before Jeff reminds us of that. Will we get any production out of him? Nobody knows but we know for a fact his defense and speed doesn't match Brown's. Rog -- We do indeed know that. We also know that Francouer has done it in the past, whereas Brown hasn't yet done it above Class A. Not that it matters, but here is something that might help you put things into perspective. Two years ago you were very high on Brown, whereas I was cautious. I have been more right about him the past two seasons than you (which doesn't mean you won't be more right than I in the future, and I hope that is indeed the case). But I don't think he's ready. The Giants don't think he's ready. You really have no way of knowing whether he is or not. Why not just wait and see what develops? There is always a slim possibility the Giants will still bring Brown up. In fact, if he got red-hot and stayed that way for three or four weeks and none of the Giants' other options have worked out well, he probably would. He's four for nine, so perhaps he has just started his needed hot streak. He had a very fine July, so we would hope he's capable of it. But gosh, Randy, all the signs right now indicate he's not ready. Why not accept that and wait to see what happens? Hey, I wanted the Giants to call up Tim Lincecum in September of 2006. They were still in the race and could have used a good pitcher. Based at least on his first major league start eight months later, I was probably wrong. Randy -- D) I never said Lincecum, as of now, was WORTH $20 million...what I said was paying him market value may end up being our best option. Rog -- That's a tough call. Or maybe it's not. I don't think anyone is a bigger fan of Tim's, and I don't think there are too many who know more about him than I. As his dad has said, Tim has pitched very well his last eight starts. He had pitched well enough going into his no-hitter that I predicted a breakout game. But I have also been saying for a year or so that it will be very tough for the Gians to re-sign him. If it appears he's going to pitch kind of like he has this season, I agree with Allen that he won't be worth the $20 million (or close to it) he will still command. And if he pitches well the rest of the season and gives an indication his troubles may be behind him, his salary could be even higher than the $22 million he's making this season. Probably would be. I have said for a while that the Giants aren't likely to re-sign Tim unless he gives them a hometown discount. He does seem to like pitching in SF, and the fans have certainly stayed behind him. So maybe he will. Without a significant hometown discount, his signing this winter will likely be high risk/high reward. How high teams think that reward may be will determine whether he is merely expensive or very much so. Notice I'm able to stay objective about Tim, Randy? Why not give that stance a shot regarding Belt and Brown, and see how it feels? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1896&page=2#12843#ixzz2Zc3raRDh
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jul 20, 2013 15:32:51 GMT -5
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I have noticed a trend for you to overreact when a player you particularly like (perhaps from seeing him in San Jose) doesn't fare all that well (Brandon Belt and now Gary Brown).
Dood - I see it as correcting those who don't give due credit to young players. But speaking of overreacting, I think the troubles Belt had are causing the Giants to be overly cautious with Brown. Which I didn't really have a problem with when Pagan was healthy. But with a retread like Francouer and an infielder like Tanaka on the team now, the OF can not really be said to be a team strength right now. If the team has given up on Brown, they should just come right out and say it. I haven't.
B) If it was right for Brandon Crawford to come up solely as a great defender, why is it not right for Brown?
Rog -- Because he doesn't play as important a defensive position, and he wouldn't be replacing a horribly struggling Miguel Tejada.
Dood - CF is behind only SS and C as important defensive positions. And Brown would be replacing either Francouer, a guy who was waived, Tanaka, an infielder by trade, or Torres, a 4th outfielder at best on most teams.
But I don't think he's ready. The Giants don't think he's ready. You really have no way of knowing whether he is or not. Why not just wait and see what develops? There is always a slim possibility the Giants will still bring Brown up. In fact, if he got red-hot and stayed that way for three or four weeks and none of the Giants' other options have worked out well, he probably would.
Dood - he's hot right now. Has been for about a month...that's not ME saying that, it was Doug Greenwall last night on the CHN broadcast of the Fresno/Tacoma game. Gary did have a slight hiccup earlier this month but I wouldnt be a bit surprised if he was still hitting balls hard then. He went 2 for 4 last night with one out being a scorcher to deep right center that was thwarted only by the speed of the CFer for Tacoma. He also had one hit that was the kind of thing I would LOVE to see in SF. He hit a bouncer--not a Baltimore chopper, mind you, but a routine play for most third baseman. The ball was fielded cleanly and the guy did not even bother to throw because Brown was already almost at first base. That's the kind of speed that we need and will effect a game.
Notice I'm able to stay objective about Tim, Randy? Why not give that stance a shot regarding Belt and Brown, and see how it feels?
Dood - I just call em as I see them, Rog. If you disagree with me, no skin off my nose. I know talent when I see it. Whether it pans out or not, who really knows? But these guys both have major league talent. And I don't just mean major league utility guys or platoon players. I mean legit All Star talent. If we had better options in front of Brown, I wouldnt be making a peep right now. But what we have in our SF outfield right now is mediocre at best. What we had at 1st base ahead of Belt was mediocre at best too. There is NO doubt that Brown represents an upgrade defensively and with his speed and the fact that he is hot right now, he could arguably be an upgrade offensively as well.
What is there to lose by giving the kid a shot? if the Giants had brought Buster Posey up earlier in 2010--as I suggested, being as unreasonable and overreacting as I am about players I see in San Jose--maybe we don't need to go to the last day of the season in order to clinch. Turns out it worked out fine...but just barely.
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 20, 2013 16:31:15 GMT -5
Rog -- You make some nice points here, so please let me respond to them as I see them. Randy -- I know talent when I see it. Whether it pans out or not, who really knows? But these guys both have major league talent. And I don't just mean major league utility guys or platoon players. I mean legit All Star talent. Rog -- I like Panik, although I have been disappointed in him this season. His reputation coming out of college was as a solid player who didn't have a high ceiling. I don't think he has shown anything yet to indicate he is a future All-Star. The one thing he can do well though is control the plate. I have compared him to Marco Scutaro. But while Marco did make the All-Star team this season, I wouldn't consider him to be an All-Star level player. Can't argue though that he has been in his year with the Giants. If Joe is able to have a career that is the equal of Marco's, I would be delighted. I would see that as his ceiling. Joe's still just 22 though, so he has plenty of time to recover from his tough season so far. Brown probably as more upside because of his broader tool set. It mostly comes down to whether he'll hit. I have made it clear I'm not optimistic in that regard. Randy -- If we had better options in front of Brown, I wouldnt be making a peep right now. Rog -- Do you want Gary to be the smaller part of a platoon? Certainly he has shown little against righties this season (.297 OBP) to indicate he should be playing full-time. Fresno has had no fewer than FIVE outfielders this season who have outhit Gary. Randy -- But what we have in our SF outfield right now is mediocre at best. Rog -- True. But Brown himself has been mediocre IN THE MINORS. Whereas Jeff Francouer was a major leaguer at age 21, Gary has yet to play well enough in AAA to make the majors as he approaches age 25. Francouer is just 29, and two years ago he hit .285/.805 for Kansas City. Doesn't it seem funny that he would fall apart at ages 28 and 29? It looks to me as if he deserves a shot to see what he can do. If Francouer fails and Brown heats it up, maybe then it would be Gary's time. Let's not forget that Gary hasn't hit well since Single A ball. Randy -- What we had at 1st base ahead of Belt was mediocre at best too. Rog -- Can't argue with that one. Aubrey Huff was coming off an excellent season, but he surely didn't have it in 2011. Randy -- There is NO doubt that Brown represents an upgrade defensively and with his speed and the fact that he is hot right now, he could arguably be an upgrade offensively as well. Rog -- As you point out, no comparison defensively or speed-wise. Jeff does have the stronger arm and has proven he can hit at the major league level. Whether he can still do so is the question. Still, he's only 29. Randy --What is there to lose by giving the kid a shot? Rog -- His confidence and a game or two in the standings. Randy -- if the Giants had brought Buster Posey up earlier in 2010--as I suggested, being as unreasonable and overreacting as I am about players I see in San Jose--maybe we don't need to go to the last day of the season in order to clinch. Turns out it worked out fine...but just barely Rog -- I think there is some difference here. I agree with you on bringing up both Buster and Brandon Belt early. I disagree (pretty strongly) with Brown. If the Giants' present oufielders fail, if they aren't able to trade for a replacement, and if Brown tears it up, I will agree with you and not see any reason they shouldn't bring Gary up. But I've got at least a couple now. As an aside, were you able to be in San Jose Municipal Stadium on April 10, 2009, the night Madison Bumgarner made his San Jose debut and Buster Posey played his 2nd regular season game there? The Giants had two 1st round draft picks in Tim Alderson (who started the opener the night before) and Mad Bum, in addition to enough hitting that Thomas Neal -- who since has had a cup of coffee with the Indians and the Yankees -- batted 9th for the Little Giants. Incidentally, in fairness to our discussion of Giants deadline trades the past three years, I forgot about the Neal for Orlando Cabrera deal made at the 2011 trade deadline. The Giants haven't been hurt by the trade, but Cabrera certainly didn't help them. By the way, in looking at Jeff Franceour this season, I'm not seeing anything in his peripherals that gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling. Still, I think he's worth a shot. You saw how quickly they jettisoned Cole Gillespie. Franceour will have a longer rope, but if he doesn't deliver, the Giants will likely go another way. Remember though that his role right now is merely to play the short side of a left field platoon. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1896&page=2#12853#ixzz2ZcY57xki
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Post by allenreed on Jul 20, 2013 16:42:49 GMT -5
Neal is with the Yankees right now. The Yankees have already used 45 players this year. Astounding.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jul 20, 2013 17:41:26 GMT -5
Randy -- I know talent when I see it. Whether it pans out or not, who really knows? But these guys both have major league talent. And I don't just mean major league utility guys or platoon players. I mean legit All Star talent.
Rog -- I like Panik, although I have been disappointed in him this season. His reputation coming out of college was as a solid player who didn't have a high ceiling. I don't think he has shown anything yet to indicate he is a future All-Star. The one thing he can do well though is control the plate.
Dood - I was speaking mainly of Brown and Belt, in response to your claim of me being overreactionary. Panik I felt wes ok but didn't have as many skills as Brown. Not as fast, not as much power and needed work on the defensive side. That said, I did like his swing and if he could get better on defense, he could become quite productive.
Rog -- Do you want Gary to be the smaller part of a platoon?
I want him to get at least a few starts in a row, like Tanaka and Perez did. If he remains hot, keep him in there. If he shows nothing offensively, then youve really lost nothing because he's still going to give superior defense. I contend his defense is good enough to keep him up because what's left is just not all that inpressive. If that were not the case, I wouldnt be lobbying like this...but the fact is our OF sucks, outside of Pence and MAYBE Blanco on his good nights. The rest is unremarkable to put it kindly.
Rog -- True. But Brown himself has been mediocre IN THE MINORS. Whereas Jeff Francouer was a major leaguer at age 21, Gary has yet to play well enough in AAA to make the majors as he approaches age 25.
Dood - yes but he has the better physical tools than any else playing in any level of our organization and he's hot. I put more stock in talent and how someone is seeing the ball lately than overall numbers. Bottom line is the guys we have just have not got it done. Without Pagan the outfield is brutally shoddy. If they weren't I would be silent. They are difficult to watch.
Randy --What is there to lose by giving the kid a shot?
Rog -- His confidence and a game or two in the standings.
Dood - maybe...and maybe Gary looks at the terrible outfield in SF and starts thinking what the hell do I have to do to make this team if these mediocre, scrap heap players are up there instead of me? Maybe he starts pressing and his numbers slide. Maybe that's already what happened to him this year.
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Jul 20, 2013 18:18:45 GMT -5
If he thinks that way, I believe he's in for a rude awakening. These guys have been mediocre at the ML level, while Gary has been mediocre at every level above A.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jul 20, 2013 19:47:14 GMT -5
Allen - If he thinks that way, I believe he's in for a rude awakening. These guys have been mediocre at the ML level, while Gary has been mediocre at every level above A.
Dood - you could say that. And I could say that Bud Norris has been at best unremarkable and at worst Mediocre at the big league level. Clearly not worthy of trading valued assets.
You could come back with, "yeah but Bud has been decent this year," and I could say "yeah and Gary's been on a roll lately too."
Bottom line is the OF we have at the big league level isn't producing, particularly when we know the very least we will get is FAR better defense. Why not give the kid a try now when he's hot? We gave Perez a try when he was hot.
~Dood
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Post by allenreed on Jul 20, 2013 20:59:58 GMT -5
Is a guy that has never excelled above AAA a valuable asset? I haven't really seen anything awfully wrong with the outfield defense we have. Torres made a particularly nice play on Cody Ross tonight. I don't have any problem with giving Brown a shot, but I'd wait until we're actually out of it. I think the games are too important now to throw an untested rook out there, and yes, I thought the same thing with Perez. Maybe in September. Frankly, I don't think the Giants will deal for Norris. I don't think they have enough in way of prospects to offer. If I were Houston, I wouldn't take Brown and Panik for him.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Jul 21, 2013 2:54:37 GMT -5
Is a guy that has never excelled above AAA a valuable asset?
Dood - If so, then we can knock Bud Norris off the wish list.
I haven't really seen anything awfully wrong with the outfield defense we have. Torres made a particularly nice play on Cody Ross tonight.
Dood - Torres is particularly awful coming in on line drives...they tend to get by him way too easily, like the one in the Mets series that basically screwed Lincecum right up the ass. And his jumps arent all that great. On Friday, Brown made 3 plays as good or better than the one on Ross tonight.
I don't have any problem with giving Brown a shot, but I'd wait until we're actually out of it.
Dood - that isn't giving him a "shot"...it's extended Spring Training.
I think the games are too important now to throw an untested rook out there, and yes, I thought the same thing with Perez. Maybe in September.
Dood - But it's ok to throw a veteran out there (Tanaka) who had never played outfield before this season?
Frankly, I don't think the Giants will deal for Norris. I don't think they have enough in way of prospects to offer. If I were Houston, I wouldn't take Brown and Panik for him.
Dood - considering you've probably seen even less of Norris than you have either Panik or Brown, I'm not really shocked.
~Dood
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Post by sharksrog on Jul 21, 2013 9:00:31 GMT -5
Randy -- maybe Gary looks at the terrible outfield in SF and starts thinking what the hell do I have to do to make this team if these mediocre, scrap heap players are up there instead of me? Rog -- I would presume the Giants are talking to Gary about their hopes for the longer term, telling him that they feel he can best benefit from playing every day at Fresno. The Giants have chosen Gregor Blanco, Andes Torres, Francisco Peguero, Juan Perez, Cole Gillespie and Kensuke Tanaka over Brown already. That seems to me a strong indication the Giants feel (as they have stated) that Brown isn't ready and that he would most benefit from starting every day in Fresno. Here is one more thing to keep in mind, Randy. Let's suppose the Giants think Brown is their center fielder of the future. If they bring him up for good now or even to begin next season, he will be eligible for free agency after the 2019 season. If they wait until after the start of next season, he will be eligible no sooner than a year later. If they bring him up for good now or to begin next season, he will be eligible for arbitration after the 2016 season. If they wait until close to midseason next year, he will be eligible a year later. Part of the decision is whether a team would rather have an additional season from a player early in his career when he is still developing, or his sixth or seventh season when he is far more mature. As an example, had the Giants brought up Tim Lincecum to start the 2007 season, he would already have been a free agent. Had they brought him up 10 days later than they did (May 6, 2007), he would have been eligible for arbitration a year later, which would have saved the Giants about $8 million for the 2010 season. Can't complain about the results of the 2010 season, but perhaps that extra $8 million would have allowed the Giants to pick up a player who would have put them over the top again in 2011 -- or at least avoided the Wheeler/Beltran trade. Decisions made now can have a lasting effect. The Giants don't feel Brown is ready, and I agree with them. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1896&page=2#12858#ixzz2ZghOpX97
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