last few spots

[sfgdood]

Nearly a couple of weeks ago, I began a thread that's still going in a few different tangents. The original post was to begin a discussion on who should gain the last few spots on the Opening Day roster still under competition.

In the last couple weeks, some things have changed...and some things that have stayed the same have changed some minds about who should stay and who should go. And some have already gone, narrowing the field a bit.

Right now, the smart money is on Chad Gaudin, Cole Gillespie and Nick Noonan gaining those last spots...however we may feel about it, it looks increasingly likely that these are the players the Giants want to see on the team.

~Dood

[Islandboagie]

I'm still thinking 13 pitchers is a possibility, but I agree, these three guys are probably the most likely.

I get the sense that you believe they somehow are being favored with little or no merit behind it. We know Noonan is only considered because the rest of the infielders shit the bed, but you have to admit, Gaudin and Gillespie performed. They at least earned consideration.

I see Gaudin about like I saw Hensley last year, I figure he's just there until Hembree has some injury-free time in Fresno. But, Gaudin does deserve a shot with what he's done this spring. We'll see what happens.

Gillespie intrigues me, he looks pretty good right now. I think the main reason Peguero isn't going to make it is because they have plenty of speed and defense, what they really need is a bat off the bench. Between Peguero and Gillespie I think I'd rather have Gillespie in pinch hitting situations. If we didn't take Gillespie someone would pick him up, whereas we can keep Peguero and call him up later in the season.

I like your stance on our guys getting the consideration over journeymen who've never really proven themselves, but if we were completely close minded about that, guys like Vogelsong, Blanco and Torres would have never made the team either. Bochy has done a very nice job at promoting our guys, and giving journeymen their shot too. Most of his spring training decisions have worked out in our favor, and we have 2 World Championships to prove it.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Gillespie intrigues me, he looks pretty good right now. I think the main reason Peguero isn't going to make it is because they have plenty of speed and defense, what they really need is a bat off the bench. Between Peguero and Gillespie I think I'd rather have Gillespie in pinch hitting situations. If we didn't take Gillespie someone would pick him up, whereas we can keep Peguero and call him up later in the season.

I like your stance on our guys getting the consideration over journeymen who've never really proven themselves, but if we were completely close minded about that, guys like Vogelsong, Blanco and Torres would have never made the team either. Bochy has done a very nice job at promoting our guys, and giving journeymen their shot too. Most of his spring training decisions have worked out in our favor, and we have 2 World Championships to prove it.

Rog -- This seems like pretty rational commentary, Boagie. The Giants used a LOT of retreads in winning the World Series in 2010.

Also, a rather balanced commentary on the Gillespie vs. Peguero issue.

How about Nick Noonan? I'm not a big fan, and he still isn't guaranteed a roster spot, but what a great comeback from a guy who was sent back to minor league camp.

As to whom the Giants would like to see win the 6th infielder job, that would be Tony Abreu. But Tony's going to have to get on the field to have a chance to do so.

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[sfgdood]

Looks like Noonan might get some early time at 3rd if Panda's elbow nerve problem doesn't go away soon. At least initially, Bochy is going to want to give Nick some starts against righties. Bochy usually likes to get everyone some starts in the first couple of weeks. A decision might need to be made this weekend weather to DL Pablo retroactive to his last Cactus League appearance.

If that happens it will be interesting to see if Bochy goes with another infielder or an extra pitcher as Boagie suggested.

~Dood

[Islandboagie]

Looks like Noonan might get some early time at 3rd if Panda's elbow nerve problem doesn't go away soon. At least initially, Bochy is going to want to give Nick some starts against righties. Bochy usually likes to get everyone some starts in the first couple of weeks. A decision might need to be made this weekend weather to DL Pablo retroactive to his last Cactus League appearance.

If that happens it will be interesting to see if Bochy goes with another infielder or an extra pitcher as Boagie suggested.

~Dood


Boagie- Good points here, Randy.

It's not likely, but I'd say theres still a possibility that they only go with 4 outfielders, which would open up another spot for another infielder, a 3rd catcher or a pitcher.

Torres has had a nice spring, and in almost all situations Bochy would likely use him over Gillespie or Peguero, so to best utilize the 25 roster spots, leaving off the 5th outfielder would seem to make the most sense.

This has been my opinion before spring even started, but has faded some with the hot start Peguero had, and the nice finish Gillespie has had.

In a pinch hitting situation the 5th outfielder would probably gain some support. Who would you rather have up there in a clutch situation among the players still fighting for a job, Gillespie, Peguero, Noonan or Bond..or not even have the option because we took 13 pitchers? I'd probably go with Gillespie or Bond, followed Noonan, then Peguero. Of the players it would appear it's a tie between Gillespie and Bond as to who likely make the best pinch hitter. This should weigh heavily on their decision because the backup to the backup is mainly a pinch hitter.

Gillespie also has the most power of the 4, followed by a tie between Noonan and Peguero, and ending with Bond who has little to no power (eventhough he hit 2 this spring.)

OBP, Bond is at the top, followed closely by Gillespie, then Noonan and last would be Peguero.

Speed, Peguero is easily the fastest. The rest are hard for me to judge because I haven't seen them play alot, but based on their minor league numbers I'd say the rest of the order is Gillespie, Noonan and Bond.

Defensively, Peguero again easily takes the cake. Noonan in my best assesment would be a tick above average, Bond and Gillespie are below average.

Based on these rankings we can assume Gillespie and Bond would be the two best pinch hitters if they were to get the two bench spots.

Noonan is probably the most well rounded player of the bunch.

Peguero is easily the best pinch runner and defensive replacement.

I think judging the information we have here, two of these guys would make good backups (Peguero and Noonan) whereas the other two would make soild backups to the backup aka pinch hitters (Bond and Gillespie.) This bodes very well for depth we'll have during the September call ups.

Now, let's consider the 4 outfielders and 6 infielders we'll be breaking camp with and who fits the best along with them.

Outfielders: Pence, Pagan, Blanco, Torres. All are good to great defensively, all have good speed, and 2 (Pagan, Pence) are good with the bat. Of these, we can tell that we don't NEED speed or defense. Torres is a super sub in the outfield, in almost all situations Torres would be called upon, however, in some instances I could see Blanco being pinch hit for, and the situation might be that a right handed power bat might be a better option than Torres, after that at-bat, Torres could be a defensive replacement. It's clear that the 5th outfielder would serve us best in pinch hitting situations. As far as just hitting, Gillespie is better than Peguero.

5th outfielder - Cole Gillespie

Infielders: Belt, Scutaro, Crawford, Sandoval, Arias. Arias is a super sub in the infield. In all situations Arias would be the best pinch hitter, best defensive replacement, and best pinch runner. None of our infielders are so grossly inept at fielding that they require a defensive replacement. Sandoval would likely be the closest one, and he has a history of injuries, so I think it's fair to say that both backups should at least be capable of playing 3rd base.

While I like Belt and Crawford, I don't think they've proven they're above being pinch hit for in certain situations, like against a lefty. Pablo (switch hitter) and Marco (righty) will never be pinch hit for. Brock Bond is a switch hitter while Noonan is a lefty. Advantage here goes to Bond. Bond could turn out to be a Theriot and then some.

Now we have some more information to consider. 1, I believe Bond has an oblique strain. 2, Pablo might be playing injured, or on the DL. This being considered and Noonan being better defensively has the clear advantage, otherwise I'd likely go with Bond. But, I'm happy with Noonan too, mainly because early on, Rog argued for Tanaka and I argued for Noonan.

6th infielder - Nick Noonan

So that's how I think it stands right now, but either way, we'll see everyone mentioned here sometime this season, it should be exciting if not interesting.

[sharksrog]

Very nice analysis, Boagie. Good reasoning and good conclusions.

One thing I would question though is whether the Giants will be pinch hitting for Brandon Belt. Anything is possible. I once listened as Joey Amalfitano pinch hit for Willie McCovey against a southpaw.

But Belt has really shown himself this spring. I am personally looking for a breakout season from him.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- Very nice analysis, Boagie. Good reasoning and good conclusions.

One thing I would question though is whether the Giants will be pinch hitting for Brandon Belt. Anything is possible. I once listened as Joey Amalfitano pinch hit for Willie McCovey against a southpaw.

But Belt has really shown himself this spring. I am personally looking for a breakout season from him.

Boagie: I believe you're right in questioning it, because I questioned it myself. I even question pinch hitting for Crawford. But as you mention, there could be a rare occation where it could happen.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- But Belt has really shown himself this spring. I am personally looking for a breakout season from him.

Boagie- I expect a improvement from Belt, but I'm not sure about a breakout season. At least not the breakout season to the point of which you've expected of Belt before he even had a major league at-bat.

The breakout season will come from Bumgarner, IMO. He's been good these last 2 1/2 years, but I've always kind of expected him to get to elite pitcher level, this year I believe he will.

[sharksrog]

Boagie- I expect a improvement from Belt, but I'm not sure about a breakout season. At least not the breakout season to the point of which you've expected of Belt before he even had a major league at-bat.

Rog -- It depends on what one would call a breakout season. To me, anything above say an .850 OPS would constitute a breakout. It appears to me he is already an elite defensive first baseman. Know anyone who plays the sacrifice bunt better?

I'm hoping for a base running breakout from his this season as well. He's already a fine base stealer for his speed level, and I think he can extend that to his overall spectrum of base running as well.

Speaking of Brandon's defense, has any team EVER had two Brandons who teamed up for better defense than Belt and Crawford? Belt made a very nice play on the attempted sacrifice last night, and had the right idea on the safety squeeze. Crawford made two OUTSTANDING plays, one to his right and one to his left.

On the play to his right, he fought off being eaten alive and gloved a treacherous one-hop heat seeker. The play to his left was another fabulous snag, but it was the near-perfect throw to first base after a 270 degree turn that made the play so beautifully smooth. Brandon would have thrown out Hussain Bolt out of the starting blocks on that one.

To nitpick, Crawford's double play throw to Scutaro after the marvelous stop to his right was just behind Marco, costing the double play. But that's nitpicking. Just getting an out on the play was superb.

The defense of both Brandon's is just outstanding -- and getting even better. Crawford is awesome, and Belt simply makes it look easy.

The breakout season will come from Bumgarner, IMO. He's been good these last 2 1/2 years, but I've always kind of expected him to get to elite pitcher level, this year I believe he will.

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[Islandboagie]

Rog -- It depends on what one would call a breakout season. To me, anything above say an .850 OPS would constitute a breakout. It appears to me he is already an elite defensive first baseman. Know anyone who plays the sacrifice bunt better?

Boagie: JT Snow.

JT was a better all around first baseman, but Belt's foot work around the bag is better. Talk about small samples, you're judging Belt on his play last night because of the raving by Kruk and Kuip during an exhibition game. Belt is a very good first baseman, but JT was better at playing sacrifice bunts, and overall was arguably the best ever.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- The breakout season will come from Bumgarner, IMO. He's been good these last 2 1/2 years, but I've always kind of expected him to get to elite pitcher level, this year I believe he will.

Rog -- First of all, let's recognize that Mad Bum has been pitching at a Hall of Fame level. His 3.20 ERA would be better than most of the pitchers now in the Hall. There may be only twoi questions in that regard.

How much of that low ERA is attributable to pitching his two full seasons in perhaps AT&T Park's most pitcher-friendly seasons? The sample is still small, but this far Mad Bum's home ERA of 3.08 is right in line with what someone would expect from a pitcher with a 3.32 road mark. Either one is darn good pitching.

And, as you mention, how much can he improve over the impressive start to his career? Most aspects of his pitching have stayed the same or declined slightly. But two hopes remain.

First, the average he has allowed to opponents keeps dropping -- from .270 to .255 to just .231 last season. The 2011 drop came without benefit of a drop in BABIP, but last season's drop was attributable to a BABIP drop from .322 to .276. His home run rate last season doubled from 2011 to 2012. Can he further improve his batting average against and stem the flow of home runs (which was about average last season after being quite good previously)?

Second -- and probably the reason for your hope -- is that he has made adjustments to his mechanics after a difficult ending to his regular season after August 20th. Mad Bum has never had control problems, so his improvement would likely stem from limiting hits and home runs against.

A side note on Mad Bum: In his two career World Series starts, he has allowed no runs on five hits and four walks in 15 innings. The Giants' very best World Series pitcher though has been ... Santiago Casilla, who has yet to allow a hit or a walk in 2.2 World Series innings.

The Giants' two postseason rotation heroes in 2010 were Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. This past posteason they were Ryan Vogelsong and, surprisingly, Barry Zito. But Mad Bum has been exceptional in his two World Series starts and has put up a solid overall 3.79 ERA in postseason play.


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