Post by sharksrog on May 20, 2013 11:48:44 GMT -5
Sorry about the sensationalist nature of the headline, but this is the most definitive article I have seen on Matt Cain's 2013 performance:
You are here: Home ∼ 2013 ∼ May ∼ 17 ∼ Pondering Cain’s release point
Pondering Cain’s release point
Published by Chris Quick on May 17, 2013 | 1 Response
As a somewhat obsessed observer of Giants baseball, one thing I’ve noticed this year – by just watching the games, nerds – is that Cain appears to be throwing – or slinging could be a better word – from a lower vertical release point.
What do the stats say?
A quick trip to the fabulous Brooks Baseball gives us this image:
From 2007-2010 Cain had a fairly consistent vertical release point. He lowered it in 2011 and it remained at pretty much the same point in 2012. This year, he’s dropped even further. His pitches, across the board, are coming out of a lower release point these days.
Here’s a video from a 2010 Cain start against the Dodgers. Be sure to check out the release point. And here’s a video this season from his last start against the Braves.
I used Cain starts at AT&T Park because the camera angle is the same. I’ve also freeze-framed each release and done a side-by-side comparison.
There’s a pretty clear difference between 2010 and 2013. In 2010, he’s over the top more. In 2013, he’s slingy-er.
This is definitely one of those things were I don’t know what this means, but it might mean something. In general, I get a little leery of pitchers when they start doing things differently. And when they are signed to a long-term deal, like Cain is, I double down on my leeriness. I also find it interesting that Krukow — a guy that generally is pretty astute about the craft of pitching — has never made mention of Cain’s lowered vertical release point. Or, if he has, I’ve missed it. Cain for the last few years will occasionally lower his arm and sling a pitch, but he’s making a real effort these days to pitch at a lower release point.
My gut feeling is that he might be trying to compensate for such a large inning workload. If pick a date, say 1980, and look onward at the amount of innings thrown by a pitcher by the age of 28, we get the following list. Cain ranks #15 in innings pitched by the age of 28. You’ll notice that he’s flanked by all sorts of good pitching. This makes sense, because you aren’t going to be allowed to throw a ton of innings if you stink. However, you’ve got to wonder if Cain’s workload has caught up to him, making him throw from a lower slot?
I’m just spit-balling, but it’s something to keep an eye on. By the “eye test,” Cain’s pitches haven’t looked crisp in 2013. He’s had a hard time keeping the ball in the park — 2.08 HR/9; 18.3 percent HR/FB — and he just doesn’t look like the same Cain we’ve seen for the past few seasons. I think we are a far ways off from sheer panic, as Cain has been so good for so long, but something in Cain’s pitching appears to be changing.
The Good Thing about all this is: You could make the argument that since Cain dropped his release, he’s actually gotten better. If we split his numbers between 2007-2010 (higher release) and 2011-2012 (lower release), we get the following:
Year
IP
ERA+
H/9
BB/9
SO/9
SO/BB
2007-2010
858.2
127
7.8
3.2
7.3
2.29
2011-2012
441
123
7.2
2.3
7.6
3.26
Note: If you included 2013 in the ’2011-2012′ grouping, things look slightly worse: 112 ERA+, 7.3 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.6 SO/9, 3.21 BB/9.
It’s possible that, at the moment, Cain is just going through some horrible luck and getting burned on home runs. It’s possible that once things even out, he’ll look a lot like the guy we’ve seen pitch in San Francisco for so long. His effectiveness with his new release point will be something to keep an eye on all season long, as the Giants will definitely need Cain firing on all cylinders if they want to compete in the NL West.
You are here: Home ∼ 2013 ∼ May ∼ 17 ∼ Pondering Cain’s release point
Pondering Cain’s release point
Published by Chris Quick on May 17, 2013 | 1 Response
As a somewhat obsessed observer of Giants baseball, one thing I’ve noticed this year – by just watching the games, nerds – is that Cain appears to be throwing – or slinging could be a better word – from a lower vertical release point.
What do the stats say?
A quick trip to the fabulous Brooks Baseball gives us this image:
From 2007-2010 Cain had a fairly consistent vertical release point. He lowered it in 2011 and it remained at pretty much the same point in 2012. This year, he’s dropped even further. His pitches, across the board, are coming out of a lower release point these days.
Here’s a video from a 2010 Cain start against the Dodgers. Be sure to check out the release point. And here’s a video this season from his last start against the Braves.
I used Cain starts at AT&T Park because the camera angle is the same. I’ve also freeze-framed each release and done a side-by-side comparison.
There’s a pretty clear difference between 2010 and 2013. In 2010, he’s over the top more. In 2013, he’s slingy-er.
This is definitely one of those things were I don’t know what this means, but it might mean something. In general, I get a little leery of pitchers when they start doing things differently. And when they are signed to a long-term deal, like Cain is, I double down on my leeriness. I also find it interesting that Krukow — a guy that generally is pretty astute about the craft of pitching — has never made mention of Cain’s lowered vertical release point. Or, if he has, I’ve missed it. Cain for the last few years will occasionally lower his arm and sling a pitch, but he’s making a real effort these days to pitch at a lower release point.
My gut feeling is that he might be trying to compensate for such a large inning workload. If pick a date, say 1980, and look onward at the amount of innings thrown by a pitcher by the age of 28, we get the following list. Cain ranks #15 in innings pitched by the age of 28. You’ll notice that he’s flanked by all sorts of good pitching. This makes sense, because you aren’t going to be allowed to throw a ton of innings if you stink. However, you’ve got to wonder if Cain’s workload has caught up to him, making him throw from a lower slot?
I’m just spit-balling, but it’s something to keep an eye on. By the “eye test,” Cain’s pitches haven’t looked crisp in 2013. He’s had a hard time keeping the ball in the park — 2.08 HR/9; 18.3 percent HR/FB — and he just doesn’t look like the same Cain we’ve seen for the past few seasons. I think we are a far ways off from sheer panic, as Cain has been so good for so long, but something in Cain’s pitching appears to be changing.
The Good Thing about all this is: You could make the argument that since Cain dropped his release, he’s actually gotten better. If we split his numbers between 2007-2010 (higher release) and 2011-2012 (lower release), we get the following:
Year
IP
ERA+
H/9
BB/9
SO/9
SO/BB
2007-2010
858.2
127
7.8
3.2
7.3
2.29
2011-2012
441
123
7.2
2.3
7.6
3.26
Note: If you included 2013 in the ’2011-2012′ grouping, things look slightly worse: 112 ERA+, 7.3 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.6 SO/9, 3.21 BB/9.
It’s possible that, at the moment, Cain is just going through some horrible luck and getting burned on home runs. It’s possible that once things even out, he’ll look a lot like the guy we’ve seen pitch in San Francisco for so long. His effectiveness with his new release point will be something to keep an eye on all season long, as the Giants will definitely need Cain firing on all cylinders if they want to compete in the NL West.