Post by sharksrog on Mar 6, 2013 10:53:23 GMT -5
Allen recently said that Francisco Peguero looks like a ballplayer. Mike Trout looks like ... a superstar.
Should Trout have been rated the #1 player in the game? I can't answer that with any certainty, but here is what I can say:
. Last season as a leadoff man, Trout drove in a surprising 83 runs in 139 games. Bobby Bonds is generally considered the best power-hitting leadoff man. In his best RBI season as a leadoff hitter, he drove in 83 runs in 139 games.
Rickey Henderson is often considered the best leadoff man in history. He had excellent power for the #1 hitter. Rickey's best was 61 RBI's.
. Trout led the AL in steals with 49 and was successful 91% of the time. I can't say how many players have stolen 49 bases or more with a 90%+ success rate, but I feel comfortable in saying the number is very low.
. Trout finished 3rd in the majors with 38 manufactured runs.
. Trout finished with a +51 bases as a base runner. The Giants' Angel Pagan finished among the leaders with +41 bases.
. Trout swings at pitches outside the zone about as often as Buster Posey.
. According to Fan Graphs, his base running was worth 12 runs, and his fielding 11. Baseball-Reference values his defense at 2.1 wins above replacement.
. Not that it is 100% definitive, but one could make a metrics argument that Trout was the best base runner in the game last season and that he was the most effective offensive player overall. His fielding ranks nearly that high metrically.
. Pitchers threw a very high percentage of fastballs to Trout last season. That may have been because on a per-pitch basis, he hit every pitch except the split finger better than the fastball, according to Fan Graphs.
This morning I watched last Wednesday's Giants/Angels game. Trout singled to right, flied to right, and walked. Like Posey, he seems to use the entire field. And he has done this at age 20.
So are there any warning flags? A few.
. As Don pointed out, Trout's strikeouts are high. He was in the range of Ryan Braun though, so that may not be a deal breaker.
. He homered on an exceptionally high 21.6% of fly balls (compared to an average of about 10%). His 30-home-run power might not hold up.
. His BABIP was .383. That's darn high, and could lead to a drop in average.
A drop in his strikeout rate could help keep his average (.326) high. An increase in his fly ball rate could help keep his power up -- although it would likely affect his batting average negatively.
Trout was more or less Mickey Mantle as a 20-year-old. For his time, Mantle struck out a lot more than Trout -- and also had even more power.
Mantle went on to become an all-time great. Because his knees are much better than Mantle's, Trout could possibly go on to become even more than Mickey.
For now though, let's simply project him a little behind Mickey and see what develops. It may be REALLY fun to watch.
Wish he were a Giant. He may become a giant.
Should Trout have been rated the #1 player in the game? I can't answer that with any certainty, but here is what I can say:
. Last season as a leadoff man, Trout drove in a surprising 83 runs in 139 games. Bobby Bonds is generally considered the best power-hitting leadoff man. In his best RBI season as a leadoff hitter, he drove in 83 runs in 139 games.
Rickey Henderson is often considered the best leadoff man in history. He had excellent power for the #1 hitter. Rickey's best was 61 RBI's.
. Trout led the AL in steals with 49 and was successful 91% of the time. I can't say how many players have stolen 49 bases or more with a 90%+ success rate, but I feel comfortable in saying the number is very low.
. Trout finished 3rd in the majors with 38 manufactured runs.
. Trout finished with a +51 bases as a base runner. The Giants' Angel Pagan finished among the leaders with +41 bases.
. Trout swings at pitches outside the zone about as often as Buster Posey.
. According to Fan Graphs, his base running was worth 12 runs, and his fielding 11. Baseball-Reference values his defense at 2.1 wins above replacement.
. Not that it is 100% definitive, but one could make a metrics argument that Trout was the best base runner in the game last season and that he was the most effective offensive player overall. His fielding ranks nearly that high metrically.
. Pitchers threw a very high percentage of fastballs to Trout last season. That may have been because on a per-pitch basis, he hit every pitch except the split finger better than the fastball, according to Fan Graphs.
This morning I watched last Wednesday's Giants/Angels game. Trout singled to right, flied to right, and walked. Like Posey, he seems to use the entire field. And he has done this at age 20.
So are there any warning flags? A few.
. As Don pointed out, Trout's strikeouts are high. He was in the range of Ryan Braun though, so that may not be a deal breaker.
. He homered on an exceptionally high 21.6% of fly balls (compared to an average of about 10%). His 30-home-run power might not hold up.
. His BABIP was .383. That's darn high, and could lead to a drop in average.
A drop in his strikeout rate could help keep his average (.326) high. An increase in his fly ball rate could help keep his power up -- although it would likely affect his batting average negatively.
Trout was more or less Mickey Mantle as a 20-year-old. For his time, Mantle struck out a lot more than Trout -- and also had even more power.
Mantle went on to become an all-time great. Because his knees are much better than Mantle's, Trout could possibly go on to become even more than Mickey.
For now though, let's simply project him a little behind Mickey and see what develops. It may be REALLY fun to watch.
Wish he were a Giant. He may become a giant.