Mark -- I think that even if Tim has a bounce back year, that 2012 season is going to haunt his negotiations. That slight stature and declining fastball will affect his market. I'd be surprised if he gets more than 4 for 60.
Rog -- Here's something to consider, Mark. Let's suppose Tim WERE a free agent this winter, and you needed a pitcher. Maybe you're the Giants on the verge of losing Tim to create a rotation hole, or maybe you're another team, since most of them have at least one hole they would like to fill in their roation.
RIGHT NOW, would you rather have Tim or Edwin Jackson? Wouldn't you take Tim, knowing he has done it rather than Edwin, who is essentially a league-average pitcher?
Over the past five seasons, Tim has put up three seasons at 2.74 or below. Over the past five seasons, Jackson has put up one season of 3.62. Last season Tim soared to 5.18, but Jackson himself was only a run-plus better at 4.03.
Now, that's a significant gap, but how likely do you think it is that Tim has become less than the league-average pitcher Jackson has been over his career? Jackson's career WHIP is 0.21 higher than Tim's. Tim's 1.47 last season was just 0.03 higher than Edwin's career WHIP.
Tim's 8.9 hits per nine innings is by far the highest of his career. Edwin 's career AVERAGE is 9.4. Both have walked 3.5 batters per game over their careers, although's rate is headed downward while Tim's is headed up.
Tim had by far his worst home run season in 2012, allowing 1.1 HR/9. Jackson's career average is 1.0.
Jackson gave up fewer hits on balls in play than his career average, allowing him to give up 0.7 hits per nine lower than Tim last season. Tim's BABIP was higher than his career mark. Jackson's rate of stranding runners was right at his career average. Tim's was by far the lowest of his career.
Tim's objective ERA's (such as Fielding Independent Pitching) were just slightly higher than Edgwin's. One could argue that Tim's season wasn't really all that much worse than Edwins's, merely that he had less pitching luck.
Tim's ERA after the break was more than half a run lower than Jackson's. They threw approximately the same number of innings last season, but in previous years Tim owned a big edge.
Tim lost speed on his fastball, but Edwin himself lost a mph.
I think if Tim had been a free agent this winter, he would have been able to command a better deal than Edwin. Edwin received $13 million per season for four years. Edwin is a year older than Tim.
In other words, without any bounce back I think Tim would have been able to get at least the 4/$60 you mentioned. If he bounces back, the money will almost certainly be there.
No question last season Tim hurt his financial leverage. He had been on track to the biggest pitching contract ever. He still might received it, but it won't be quite as large and it would require a very strong bounce back in 2013.
But don't you think that if Tim bounces back well in 2013, he will get considerable more than Edwin Jackson got? Jackson has a long track record of being a essentially a league-average pitcher. Tim was far worse than that last season, but even with that horrid season, his career has been pitched at a very high level.
Tim's 2012 season will never be forgotten. But a strong bounce back in 2013 will make it appear very much to be an outlier.
If Tim doesn't bounce back, he might well go for a one-year deal in order to prove himself for what could still be a long-term contract a year later. Jackson himself accepted a 1/$10 contract from the Nationals a year ago.
But it Tim bounce back, I'm almost sure he will be paid. Doesn't the evidence suggest that?
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