Boagie- I know leaving off his solid season at Fresno last year might appear like you're making a point, but it really isn't. Last season should be the MAIN focus as to what to expect from them going into this season.
Rog -- I have debated when evaluating a player how to weight more recent seasons. Certainly barring an out-of-the norm occurrence such as an injury, it makes sense to give more recent seasons a little more emphasis.
But overall I have found that an averaging of a player's minor league performance -- without totally ignoring the recent season or especially seasons -- works best. Not that one example comes anywhere close to proving a point -- and in fact, I just remembered a second one I want to include -- but let's look at Nate Schierholtz and Todd Linden.
Actually, in Nate's case, he had intermittent good numbers in the minors. He put up OPS above .900 in each of the two seasons he was transitioning from Fresno to the Giants, but he had also done so in smaller samples in the rookie league and in Low A ball.
A couple of negative signs for Nate, though.
First, when he was promoted mid-season, he struggled. That didn't happen to Buster Posey or even Brandon Belt. Nate also had a tough season in AA. It turned out that getting overly excited by his two largest-sample seasons at Fresno was a mistake.
Second, we're back to the old K/BB/HR ratio. Nate hit 84 homers in the minors, which isn't bad (although far from great), but he had the old bugaboo 442/146 K/BB ratio.
Nate's overall minor league play was more indicative than his breakout at Fresno.
The other player who came to mind is Todd Linden.
Todd had what seemed to be a break-out season at Fresno in 2005. He put up a phenomenal 1.120 OPS, with 30 homers in just 340 at bats. He even put up a 97/62 K/BB ratio -- not bad for a guy hitting with that much power. But by the end of the season, he had played over 350 games at Fresno and nearly 100 more with the Giants.
Todd now has a .871 career minor league OPS, including .817 last season in a return to Fresno. But he has an 826/429 K/ BB ratio over his minor league career, which is more indicative of his talent at the major league level.
Todd even had a 64/62 K/BB ratio in an independent league in 2011. He posted a 1.078 OPS. Heck, in 2009 he hit over .300 in stints in AAA and the Japanese Pacific League (where Tanaka has been playing). But even that season, he K/BB ratio was 166/59. Likely injury-plagued, he hit just .185 in Japan in 2010.
Todd has a career .638 major league OPS, even though he was even better than Nate in AAA.
K/BB is a good indicator. Better that it be improving than going down. The former indicates the player is moving up in the chain and handling it relatively well. But the overall minor league K/BB ratio seems the better indicator in most cases.
No question there are expections to this rule. There virtually always are. But K/BB still works pretty well overall, especially when a player's overall minor league ratio is used.
Today I watched MLB Network's Top 10 Second Basemen right NOW. Howie Kendrick was rated somewhere in the middle of the top 10, but they commented that he had yet to have the breakout season that would have been expected by how highly he was rated as a prospect. (Howie was rated #12 among all baseball prospects prior to the 2006 season, having hit .367 between High A and AA at the age of 21.)
My suspicion was that when I looked him up, he wouldn't have had a very good K/BB ratio in the minors.
And even though Howie hit .360 (!) with a .972 OPS in the minors, he had just a 212/84 K/BB ratio with 52 home runs. He certainly has been a very nice player, well above average for the keystone. But his .756 career major league OPS hasn't come close to fulfilling the potential promised by that spectacular .360 minor league average and .972 OPS.
Kendrick is still just 28, right in the middle of his prime years. He could still break out. But those who didn't get overly excited by the .360/.972 minor league numbers and paid a little attention to K's and BB's haven't been nearly as disappointed with Kendrick's lack of a breakout as those who perhaps paid too much attention to the raw numbers.
I saw today that Jesus Montero had just a .685 OPS in his first full major league season. He hit .308 with an .867 OPS between age 17 and age 21 in the minors, moving up quickly for such a young age.
Jesus was rated one of the very best prospects in the game, coming in at #38, #4, #3 and #6 in the four winters prior to this one. Being that highly rated at such a young age is spectacular. And in a small sample, Montero put up a .965 OPS in a late-season callup with the Yankees in 2011.
But when Boly asked me about him in an e-mail, I said that I didn't think he would hit as well as Buster and that he might not hit as well as Belt. Montero is just 23, so he has plenty of time to prove me wrong. But for as spectacular as he had been at such a young age in the minors, he had a lot of adjusting to do in his first full major league season in 2012.
Did I mention that Montero's K/BB ratio in the minors was 337/159, with 76 homers. That's not bad for a Latin player at so young an age. But it isn't as impressive as his .308 average and .867 OPS at such a young age would indicate.
Do I think Montero will hit as well as Belt in the major leagues? Tough call, but I think the odds favor Jesus. Will he hit as well as Posey? Probably not, even though he may wind up doing a lot of DH-ing later in his career.
Posey and Belt had wonderful K/BB ratios with good power. Montero showed the power, but his K/BB ratio wasn't nearly as good.
Even with a 116/36 K/BB ratio in the majors, I still expect Montero to hit. His .260 average last season with 15 homers was far from a total loss. But he makes too many outs (including 15 double plays last season), and despite his young age, I don't expect him to become a true superstar hitter -- which was predicted for several minor league seasons.
Again, K/BB/HR is far from perfect. But with proper consideration of age/minor league level and a little favoritism for those who didn't walk their way off the island, it works pretty good.
And it doesn't favor Nick Noonan.
Boagie -- Let's remember Noonan is only 23, and was drafted in the 1st round out of high school. The 22-24 age is often times when these guys put it together.
Rog -- Or even later. After his .296 at Fresno this past season, Nick looks like a better prospect than he did a year ago. But his 84/40 K/BB ratio wasn't much better than his career mark. As you point out below, he doesn't appear to be ready yet.
Boagie -- That being said, I'm sure the Giants would rather keep Noonan for another year at Fresno if there's an equal or better option.
Rog -- And that option could be Tanaka. Or maybe the Giants will bring back Ryan Theriot. Meanwhile, Noonan has better prospect in Joe Panik moving up behind him. Joe took a while to adjust to High A pitching at San Jose last season, but the previous season he was the Northwest League (short-season A) MVP.
This is a little surprising since as you point out, Noonan was a high pick out of high school while Panik was drafted out of college, but Joe is actually a year younger than Nick.
One would hope that this season Joe will hit better than the .212 Noonan managed in AA. Joe's fine K/BB ratio indicates he shouldn't have trouble doing so.
if Joe starts out in AA this season, he will be half a season younger than Noonan in hitting that level.
I realize we're talking about a likely backup infielder vs. a likely starter. More than anything else, the K/BB ratio's of the two players would seem to indicate why.
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