Post by sharksrog on Jan 1, 2013 13:44:30 GMT -5
A Happy New Year to all, and naturally, a Happy New Year to the Giants.
What is the New Year likely to bring for our favorite team? Will they collapse like the 2011 Giants did, will they continue to play as a very good team, or will they become even better?
Well, let's compare how the Giants are going forward into 2013 with how they entered 2011.
First, how many players are coming off career-type years, have reached a dangerous age or may be limited by injury, meaning they might well regress?
Back in 2011, there were many such players, with perhaps Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez, Andres Torres, Freddy Sanchez and Jonathan Sanchez leading the pack.
This season Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, Buster Posey and Marco Scutaro fit that bill. Only Scutaro and perhaps Lopez appear to be likely candidates.
This area looks better in 2013.
One wouldn't have predicted Posey's crippling injury in 2011, but it had one of the most dampening effects on that season and seems unlikely to be repeated by a 2013 Giant.
Another area that favors 2013.
How about the impact of players lost?
There no significant departures after 2010. This season the one key departure is Melky Cabrera, whom the Giants somehow overcame after Melky's ill-timed departure.
This area favors 2011.
Young players or players that are coming off bad seasons and are likely to improve?
2011 didn't have much to look forward to. Madison Bumgarner would be available for a full season, and Brandon Belt was on the horizon. That was about it.
This year Belt, Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum seem strong candidates for improvement.
Big advantage to 2013.
How about the mental aspect, the natural tendency to see a dip in resolve after winning the World Series?
That is still a possiblity in 2013, but most of the players went through the 2011 malaise and presumably learned from it.
How about the luck factor? How much did the previous year's team benefit from luck (or play over their heads)?
There is no precise measure of the luck factor, but winning record compared to Pythagorean record (the record predicted by runs scored and allowed) is one such possible measure. The Giants of 2010 were a minus two wins, while last season's version was a plus six.
This advantage, to the extent it exists, favors the 2011 team.
How many wins did the team have the previous year, giving it abiilty to withstand a decline? The 2012 Giants won 94 games; the 2010 team won 92.
This favors the 2013 team.
Is the competition likely to improve or regress?
After 2010, the Padres had established themselves, and the Rockies seemed to be on the come. This year it is the Dodgers who seem to have bought there way to a good team.
Let's call this one a draw. If there is an advantage, it would go to the 2011 team.
On balance, this year's team seems better-prepared to handle the year-to-year adjustment than the 2011 team. We should remember also that most of the six-game decline by the 2011 team was due to the loss of Buster Posey to injury.
If this year's team stays relatively healthy, it should be better than the 2011 team.
Which would be a nice way for the team to wish us a Happy New Year.
What is the New Year likely to bring for our favorite team? Will they collapse like the 2011 Giants did, will they continue to play as a very good team, or will they become even better?
Well, let's compare how the Giants are going forward into 2013 with how they entered 2011.
First, how many players are coming off career-type years, have reached a dangerous age or may be limited by injury, meaning they might well regress?
Back in 2011, there were many such players, with perhaps Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez, Andres Torres, Freddy Sanchez and Jonathan Sanchez leading the pack.
This season Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, Buster Posey and Marco Scutaro fit that bill. Only Scutaro and perhaps Lopez appear to be likely candidates.
This area looks better in 2013.
One wouldn't have predicted Posey's crippling injury in 2011, but it had one of the most dampening effects on that season and seems unlikely to be repeated by a 2013 Giant.
Another area that favors 2013.
How about the impact of players lost?
There no significant departures after 2010. This season the one key departure is Melky Cabrera, whom the Giants somehow overcame after Melky's ill-timed departure.
This area favors 2011.
Young players or players that are coming off bad seasons and are likely to improve?
2011 didn't have much to look forward to. Madison Bumgarner would be available for a full season, and Brandon Belt was on the horizon. That was about it.
This year Belt, Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence and Tim Lincecum seem strong candidates for improvement.
Big advantage to 2013.
How about the mental aspect, the natural tendency to see a dip in resolve after winning the World Series?
That is still a possiblity in 2013, but most of the players went through the 2011 malaise and presumably learned from it.
How about the luck factor? How much did the previous year's team benefit from luck (or play over their heads)?
There is no precise measure of the luck factor, but winning record compared to Pythagorean record (the record predicted by runs scored and allowed) is one such possible measure. The Giants of 2010 were a minus two wins, while last season's version was a plus six.
This advantage, to the extent it exists, favors the 2011 team.
How many wins did the team have the previous year, giving it abiilty to withstand a decline? The 2012 Giants won 94 games; the 2010 team won 92.
This favors the 2013 team.
Is the competition likely to improve or regress?
After 2010, the Padres had established themselves, and the Rockies seemed to be on the come. This year it is the Dodgers who seem to have bought there way to a good team.
Let's call this one a draw. If there is an advantage, it would go to the 2011 team.
On balance, this year's team seems better-prepared to handle the year-to-year adjustment than the 2011 team. We should remember also that most of the six-game decline by the 2011 team was due to the loss of Buster Posey to injury.
If this year's team stays relatively healthy, it should be better than the 2011 team.
Which would be a nice way for the team to wish us a Happy New Year.