Position by position

[sharksrog]

When one looks at the Giants, position by position, I think he gains confidence in their chances.

Starting pitching -- Above average

Relief pitching -- Above average

Catching -- Well above average

1st Base -- Average to above average

2nd Base -- Below average to average

SS -- Below average to average

3B -- Well above average

LF -- Below average

CF -- Average to above average

RF -- Average to above average

Bench -- Average to below average

That's a lot of above averages -- with both the rotation and bullpen being in that range.

Let's look at things another way.

The Giants have guys who are legitimate All-Star candidates next season:

Cain, Vogelsong, Mad Bum and Lincecum

Romo

Posey and Sandoval

That's nearly a third of the roster -- and most are PITCHERS!

Boly mentioned wins by Cain, Mad Bum and Vogelsong, followed by losses by Lincecum and Zito. It doesn't work out that clearly, of course, but a .600 winning percentage would be just fine.

One thing I did overlook when I posted that the Giants should win 90 to 100 games was that they outperformed their Pythagorean record (based on run differential) by six games. In other words, their regular season likely wasn't quite as good as 94 wins looked.

But the Giants' very fine record in holding onto small late-inning leads can help them win more games than their Pythagorean record.

I'm still optimistic about the 2013 Giants' chances -- although we saw in 2011 how drastically individual performances can vary from year to year.

Then again, we CERTAINLY saw that very thing last season with Lincecum, and yet the Giants were able to win the World Series.

I like having a base of seven legitimate All-Star candidates. I like the idea of platooning in left field to help cover up a weakness there.

I like the chances of Pablo's and Brandon Belt's improving, and Lincecum and Hunter Pence having bounce-back seasons.

I like the solidity of Brandon Crawford's glove at shortstop, a position where a low batting average can be easier tolerated.

Oh, and I like the bullpen by committee, even though it has been modified by Sergio Romo's having taken over the closer spot.

You know whom I mean, right? That guy who was such a phenomenal set up man, but who didn't have the "makeup" to close?

[klaiggeb]

When one looks at the Giants, position by position, I think he gains confidence in their chances.

Starting pitching -- Above average

Relief pitching -- Above average

Catching -- Well above average

1st Base -- Average to above average

2nd Base -- Below average to average

SS -- Below average to average

3B -- Well above average

LF -- Below average

CF -- Average to above average

RF -- Average to above average

Bench -- Average to below average

---boly says---

Rog, I think you're over estimating, and under estimating on a lot of the positions you posted above. I'll go one-by-one with where I disagree.

My comments will be in the brackets that follow:

Starting pitching -- Above average {Top 3, outstanding. # 4 and 5-Tim and Barry, below average for an overall ranking of above average to good}

Relief pitching -- Above average {Good to very good}

Catching -- Well above average{Good to very good}

1st Base -- Average to above average (Cannot agree at all. So much of Belt is speculation. Very good defensively, below average to poor at the plate. Overall ranking-below average to average}

2nd Base -- Below average to average {as much as I may criticize Marco for what I perceive as a lack of range, he's at least average in the field, and above average, historically (for a 2Bman, at the plate. Thus, my ranking -Average to above average.}

SS -- Below average to average {Your ranking ONLY rates us at SS based upon offense. Factor in Defense and the rankins, IMHO, go to above average period, and slightly less than "good."}

LF -- Below average (below average to poor offensively, excellent to outfrickingstanding defensively for an over all ranking of below average to poor)


Bottom Line:

We still have HUGE unknowns at

1B=Will Brandon put it together this year? He's due.

LF=CAN we actually win with a Torres/Blanco team in LF? I'm not sure we can because EITHER of them in the 7 hole is a potential offensive black hole; ie They DON'T drive in runs.

RF=Which Pence do we have? The lifetime .285 hitter who hits around 20+ HRs/year? Or the plate putz we had last year? The guy who hit .219 by DID a great job at driving in runs?

I want the guy from 2010 and 2011 who drove in over 90 runs each year, not the impotent guy with the fly swatter chasing EVERTHING in the zip code.

SS-Will Brandon continue to develop as he has been, making steady, offensive progress? Or have we really seen all there is to see?

Closer-CAN Romo do it for a year? I'm saying, no. That his arm won't hold up.

Zito-Was last year the Zito we can expect? Or will he revert to the guy we had from
2007-2011?

Yeah, I realize his ERA was 4.15, but the reality is this WHEN we needed him at his BEST, DURING the season and IN the playoffs, he was money! He got outs, and gave us some innings.

Lincecum-I've beaten this topic to death and won't do so again.

El gordo-Fatso-The Michelin Tire man-The HindenPablo-Gigantor the 3rd baseman-WILL he come back in shape? Or will he, as I suspect, party all off season and be "senor Rotundo" once again?

Every team has question marks, and so do we.

boly

[allenreed]

1st Base -- Average to above average (Cannot agree at all. So much of Belt is speculation. Very good defensively, below average to poor at the plate. Overall ranking-below average to average}


Allen- From August on Belt hit .329 with an OBP of .417. He slugged .477 in August and .512 in Sept/Oct. I would say that based on those numbers, things look promising for next year. He could hit more HRs, but at our park that may or may not happen.
]

[klaiggeb]

1st Base -- Average to above average (Cannot agree at all. So much of Belt is speculation. Very good defensively, below average to poor at the plate. Overall ranking-below average to average}


Allen- From August on Belt hit .329 with an OBP of .417. He slugged .477 in August and .512 in Sept/Oct. I would say that based on those numbers, things look promising for next year. He could hit more HRs, but at our park that may or may not happen.


---boly says---

Allen, I don't disagree with you at all. But until he actually goes out there and does it for a full year, he's still a question mark.

boly

[sharksrog]

A quick comment: I was intentionally quite broad in my rankings. The only two areas I ranked even as high as above average to well above average were catcher and third base, two areas where the Giants could have players about as good as any players at their respective positions.

And as has been mentioned elsewhere, Pablo is still more of a question mark than most (potentially) top players.

It should be noted though that after the Giants won in 2010 despite a slump from Pablo, he lost a lot of weight and had an outstanding season despite a broken hamate bone. I don't see any particular reason to think he will just sit back this winter, any more than he did after the last World Championship.

[sharksrog]

A quick summary with regard to Boly's question marks:

1B -- Brandon Belt has been up and down, but as Allen pointed out, he ended the season on an up. His OPS for the season was higher than most of the Giants' starters. A question mark, but one that shows a true possibiity of a positive resolution.

SS -- We have probably seen what we're going to get from Brandon Crawford, but it isn't all that bad. Very nice glove, and not a total loss at the plate. Yes, there is the possibility of decline, but after the early season, Brandon was probably above average.

LF -- The biggest question mark on the team, but a platoon of Blanco and Torres does offer some hope. Very fine speed and defense, and in a platoon, the ability to reach base a little.

If that duo doesn't cut it, the Giants will likely fortify the position at the trade deadline.

RF -- Hunter Pence was nearly as much of a disappointment as Marco Scutaro was a positive surprise. But just as Marco will almost certainly return to normal, Hunter should do so, as well. After several seasons with a history of being a good hitter -- including hitting over .300 as recently as 2011 -- Hunter suddenly lost it.

It isn't often that a hitter in his prime loses it doesn't get it back. The odds would seem to favor a nice bounce back.

I don't want to beat Lincecum/Zito to death either, but it wouldn't seem likely there would be a significant decline from the top three, and with Lincecum and Zito having a combined ERA of around 4.70, it would seem likely that an expected decline from Zito would be offset by at least SOME improvement by Lincecum.

As with Pence and hitting, pitchers in their prime don't often lose it and not get at least some of it back.

Yes, there will likely be some significant drop offs from a few of the Giants' players. But the potential for improvement from Belt, Sandoval, Pence and Lincecum seems significant. If even two of the four improve in a noticeable way, it could help offset the decline of others.

Realistically though, the Giants will likely need improvement from at least three of the four. And/or improvement from Blanco/Torres.

[sharksrog]

Regarding Sergio Romo, Boly makes a better point than I (and he) wish he did.

In Brian Wilson's three full seasons as closer, he pitched in 63, 68 and 70 games. Romo's last three years have been 68, 65 and 69. So far, not a problem.

But Wilson's innings were 62, 72 and 75. Sergio's have been 62, 48 and 55. That's a significant difference.

So what do the Giants to allow them not to overwork Romo (especially since Wilson's injury occurred in what would have been his fourth full season, and Romo is approaching his fourth full season)? It would seem the simple answer would be not to overwork Romo.

And there is where the closer-by-committee comes into play. The Giants have both Romo and Casilla who have shown they can close. Even with his blister problems, Santiago closed 25 of 31 opportunities last season, which isn't that far off the average for a closer percentage-wise. Casilla also pitched 63 innings in 73 appearances.

Affeldt and Lopez have done a little closing, and each also has 9th-inning set up experience which could help shorten Romo's (and Casilla's) innings.

If the Giants get another good job from Bruce Bochy in handling the bullpen, the Giants' risk could be decreased.

It would be nice if George Kontos could repeat his 2012 season, although I wouldn't expect it. Heath Hembree and Danny Otero wait in the wings to provide depth.