Pops and Drops

[sharksrog]

A year ago many prospect analysts had center fielder Gary Brown and shortstop/second baseman Joe Panik as the Giants' top prospects. They have dropped and others have popped, according to Fan Graphs' new top 15 Giants prospects rating.

The top poppers have been starting pitchers, with 2011 draftees Kyle Crick and Clayton Blackburn rising to the top two positions, and 2013 first round pick Chris Stratton ranked 3rd.

Here are some summaries:

1. Kyle Crick
Ceiling: Top line starter
Ups: Power pitcher with potentially plus cutter/slider. Big. Athletic.
Downs: Needs to trust his stuff more
Projected arrival: 2014/2015

2. Clayton Blackburn
Ceiling: Innings-eating #3 starter
Ups: 93 mph fastball, but more of a four-pitch, control pitcher, will make you hit his pitch.
Downs: Funky arm action at times
Projected arrival: 2014/2015

3. Chris Stratton
Ceiling: #3 starter
Ups: Four pitches. Can get a strikeout when he needs it.
Downs: Season ended when hit in head and concussed by line drive.
Projected arrival: 2014/ 2015 if healthy

4. Gary Brown
Ceiling: Center fielder has the potential to be very good offensively and defensively. Leadoff-type hitter.
Ups: Great speed. Plus makeup.
Downs: Hasn't taken advantage of speed on the bases. Projections range from 4th outfielder to All-Star. Doesn't walk enough for a leadoff hitter. Raw for a college product.
Projected arrival: 2014

5. Heath Hembree
Ceiling: Closer
Ups: Mid-90's fastbal with easy motion. Potentially-plus slider and frings change up.
Downs: Walks more than one every two innings.
Projected arrival: 2013

8. Joe Panik
Ceiling: Starting shortstop or (more likely) second baseman. #2 hitter.
Ups: Cerebral player. More walks than strikeouts. Good instincts and first-step lateral quickness.
Downs: Range and arm questions, especially for shortstop. Will he be able to overcome likely initial failure at AA in 2013?
Projected arrival: 2014/2015

[Islandboagie]

I agree with moving Crick and Blackburn up on the list.

Brown didn't have a great year in Richmond, because of that some doubts arise.

Brown, because of his age, is right on the fence. If he tears it up in Fresno this year I'll be very optimistic about his career, if not, I think he'll be more of a 4th outfielder type only because he's fast and good defensively.

There's alot of question marks throughout the system right now.

Peguero is always touted as having good power but still hasn't shown it. He's also 24 like Brown so his time too is running out.

Heath Hembree and Bochy's son who were both great in 2011 and at the begining of last year, are both question marks going into this season because of arm troubles last year. I still question why Brett Bochy never makes it on the Giants top prospects list.

Usually San Jose isn't a problem for players offensively, but it was last year for Panik, so much so that he may end up there again after spring.

The spotlight for me this year will be focused on the San Jose pitchers mound. Kyle Crick, Chris Stratton, and Clayton Blackburn will likely be # 1,2,3 (in no specific order) in San Jose's starting rotation. With all the young pitching coming through our system in recent years, this year in San Jose could prove to be the most talented rotation as a whole. Crick and Stratton are both first round picks, Blackburn surprising was drafted in the 16th round. Don't let that fool you, if K/BB ratio is an indication of what kind of pitcher they'll be, Blackburn might just be the best of the three. Should be exciting to see how these 3 progress next year.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Peguero is always touted as having good power but still hasn't shown it.

Rog -- Marc and I disagreed on Francisco. He liked him because of his batting and defensive skills. I didn't like him because of his very poor K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, I'm going to be right.

Fan Graphs ranked Francisco as San's #10 prospect, which gives us an idea about how so-so the prospect crop is. As is often the case, the prospect list seems to be gravitating toward pitchers.

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- He's also 24 like Brown so his time too is running out.

Rog -- I think Brown still has time. Unlike Peguero, who has probably been in the organization six or seven years, he's a college player, which puts him on a later timetable.

I think Peguero's ceiling is as a 4th outfielder. I frankly think he's a Four A player, although with the Giants' having only three outfielders at present, his opportunity appears to be here.

I don't think you're all that far off in thinking Brown will be a 4th outfielder, although I have had him placed as a so-so starting center fielder, which is pretty much what the Fan Graphs guy (Marc Hulet) believed.

Brown stiil has star potential, but his chances of reaching it seem to be dwindling. I have read that his hitting mechanics aren't good, and his K/BB ratio seems to indicate he doesn't have control of the strike zone.

One guy I saw wrote that Brown should be a good leadoff man, due to his exceptional speed and his ability to get on base. I'm certainly down with the speed part of the equation (80 on a 20-80 scouting scale, or Darren Ford-like), but he doesn't walk enough for a leadoff man.

Brown DOES get on base enough when he hits over .300, but he isn't likely to hit much above .270 in the majors, which just won't put him on base enough.

In addition, he hasn't yet learned how to fully capitalize on his intense speed. He can steal bases -- but not without getting thrown out a lot, which neutralizes what could potentially be a weapon.

Just as I hoped Marc would be right about Peguero, who is indeed an excellent outfielder with a strong arm, I hope that Randy is right about Brown. But I would be willing to bet him that I will be closer than he.

Much like Pequero, Brown does have excellent defensive skills. And I do think he will fare clearly better than Francisco. And if Brown hits for average, he will reach base enough. And there is a decent chance he will become a decent base runner.

I think center field is Brown's for the taking (with Pagan shifting to a corner), but I think he will be a third or fourth quartile center fielder/leadoff man.

I guess I see Brown as an excellent fourth outfielder or a below-average starter.

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Heath Hembree and Bochy's son who were both great in 2011 and at the begining of last year, are both question marks going into this season because of arm troubles last year. I still question why Brett Bochy never makes it on the Giants top prospects list.

Rog -- Hulet spoke about Bochy. Despite his fine success last season, Marc left him off the top 15 prospect list because:

. He lacks fastball speed.

. He has been a little old for his level.

. Hulet's sources within the organization haven't been high on the younger Bochy. (I'm guessing the manager isn't among his sources.)

A good season from Bochy in 2013 would significantly increase his rating.


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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Usually San Jose isn't a problem for players offensively, but it was last year for Panik, so much so that he may end up there again after spring.

Rog -- I'm a little confused here, Boagie. Joe didn't have the year Gary Brown had before, but he did hit .297 after a very slow start. I'm going to guess he hit .333 or higher over the last half of the season or thereabouts.

And Joe was a year younger in High A San Jose than Brown was.

Here is the impressive thing about him. He struck out only 54 times in 535 at bats at San Jose. In the AFL, he struck out only 7 times in 78 at bats. A season ago, he struck out 25 times in 270 at bats at Salem-Keizer. In the AFL a year ago, he struck out 10 times in 93 at bats.

In other words, what we have here is a guy who strikes out once every 10 at bats. Marco Scutaro strikes out once every 8 at bats. My guess is that in the major leagues, Joe will do about the same, quite possibly better.

Last season was Joe's 21-year-old season, and he played in High A ball, striking out once every 10 at bats. In Marco's 21-year-old season, he struck out once every 6 at bats, which was the same rate as his minor league career overall.

So we've got a hitter who struck out less than Marco did at the same age, walked more, and hit .297 compared to Marco's .272.

Except that Marco bats right and Joe hits left, the two appear to be similar hitters. Both make good contact and are able to keep an at bat alive. Some project Joe to have a little more power, but I would guess they would wind up being about the same there, as well.

We have spoken about Joe's fielding, which despite his winning the award as San Jose's defensive player of the year appears to be below average at shortstop and not much above average at second base.

But before Marco's contract is up, it is quite possible Joe will be as good as or a better hitter than Marco, and based on the age differential, a better fielder, as well.

I will be very surprised if Joe repeats High A. Where did you get the idea he might?


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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- The spotlight for me this year will be focused on the San Jose pitchers mound. Kyle Crick, Chris Stratton, and Clayton Blackburn will likely be # 1,2,3 (in no specific order) in San Jose's starting rotation. With all the young pitching coming through our system in recent years, this year in San Jose could prove to be the most talented rotation as a whole.

Rog -- Nice observation, Boagie. I'm thinking that in 2009 San Jose had Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson and Clayton Tanner, but the upcoming trio probably does have more depth.

Boagie -- Crick and Stratton are both first round picks, Blackburn surprising was drafted in the 16th round. Don't let that fool you, if K/BB ratio is an indication of what kind of pitcher they'll be, Blackburn might just be the best of the three. Should be exciting to see how these 3 progress next year.

Rog -- Crick was taken 49th overall in the compensation portion of the 1st round. It would appear that Blackburn is the most advanced of the trio, while Crick and Stratton have are more power pitchers who need to gain control and command.

As you point out, Blackburn's 143/18 K/BB ratio is impressive, and his 2.32 ground balls per fly ball might have me placing him as the best of the trio, as well. It will be intriguing to see how Clayton fares in High A ball, and I would think if he continues to strike out guys, walk few, and get a lot of ground balls (2.32 is a very high ratio, and in limited action the previous season he was at 2.58), he could get promoted to AA Richmond midway through the season.

I'm a long way from San Jose these days (although I might get to see Fresno play in Sacramento), or else I would love to see him -- or either of the other two -- pitch this year. Perhaps in a year or two for Fresno.

Come to think of it, perhaps I can make it over to Stockton to see one or more of these guys pitch for San Jose. The Little Giants play three series there. I have seen only one game in Stockton, but it was to see Tim Lincecum pitch in 2006. Would it surprise you that even with just his fastball and curve, Tim was dominant?

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[rxmeister]

I love that Kyle Crick was drafted with the supplemental first round pick acquired when the Dodgers signed Juan Uribe. Can that signing have worked out any better for the Giants and worse for the Dodgers? No wonder many jokingly suggest that Ned Colletti is still working for the Giants but has gone undercover!

[sharksrog]

Mark -- I love that Kyle Crick was drafted with the supplemental first round pick acquired when the Dodgers signed Juan Uribe.

Rog -- I didn't know that. Pretty cool, isn't it? You're bringing some nice nuggets here lately, Mark, and I've always liked your analysis.

Keep up the good work!

And while I knew about Crick and about Chris Stratton, Marc Hulet's prospect list put me in tough with a prospect who deserves attention in Clayton Blackburn.

Blackburn's combination of 143/18 K/BB ratio, more than a strikeout per inning, and being a pronounced ground ball pitcher could make him an even better prospect than it seems, as Boagie said.

Two words of caution: Tim Alderson. Tim was also a high strikeout-low walk-high ground ball pitcher. But he didn't strike out as many, walked more and didn't induce as many ground balls. He may also have hurt his arm along the way.

The more I look at this, the more excited I get about Blackburn. He is a finesse pitcher, but he seems to have good power for a ground ball guy.

Even though it means a drive to Stockton, I'm really going to try to see him pitch this year. Then again, he might move on to Richmond as the year progesses.

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[sfgdood]

Rog -- Marc and I disagreed on Francisco. He liked him because of his batting and defensive skills. I didn't like him because of his very poor K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, I'm going to be right.

Dood - wow you sure are arrogant. I'm not saying I disagree with you but can't you even see a possibility of being wrong in your prediction? This is why I hate offseason and stats geek publications. People all of a suddent think they are all knowing and all seeing.

~Dood

[sfgdood]

I'm glad that some of the pitchers are improving their stock but it bothers me that one year of being less than star quality all of a sudden has dropped Gary Brown's ceiling to being a 4th outfielder. None of you yahoos have seen the boy play...I have. Stats don't tell the full story. Sorry to break the news to you Rog.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Dood - wow you sure are arrogant. I'm not saying I disagree with you but can't you even see a possibility of being wrong in your prediction? This is why I hate offseason and stats geek publications. People all of a suddent think they are all knowing and all seeing.

Rog -- You are right, Randy. I should have put in my usual IMO. Almost went back and did so when I made the post. You and I agree I COULD be wrong here. You and I agree I likely won't be.

I do think Pequero will likely be on the 25-man roster at some point this season. Or at least be a September callup again. The Giants still have a large opening in the outfield. Xavier Nady signed a minor league contract with the Royals, and while the Giants likely had almost nada interest in Nady, they are still looking.

Pequero could land the final outfield spot, although if I were guessing who it would be with the players on the Giants' roster right now, I would pick lefty-hitting Roger Kieschnick.

You are right that I should have qualified my statement about Francisco, Randy. I almost always do, but this time I didn't think it was worth the effort to go back and do so. I should have made that effort.


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[sharksrog]

Randy -- I'm glad that some of the pitchers are improving their stock but it bothers me that one year of being less than star quality all of a sudden has dropped Gary Brown's ceiling to being a 4th outfielder.

Rog -- You did understand that the comment -- which I paraphrased -- was " Projections range from 4th outfielder to All-Star." Right? You may have read too quickly.

Randy -- None of you yahoos have seen the boy play...

Rog -- We're not yahoos.

Randy -- I have.

Rog -- Which I mention pretty much every time I talk about how highly you value Brown.

Randy -- Stats don't tell the full story.

Rog -- Of course they don't. Especially if one doesn't know how to analyze them.

Randy -- Sorry to break the news to you Rog.

Rog -- This is hardly news. By the way, Randy, you do have the distinct advantage of having seen Gary play -- an advantage I enjoyed at various times with Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. Given your advantage, Randy, what am I missing?

Statistically, Brown's minor league numbers are good, and he hit over .300 this year in the AFL, hugely improving on a 2011 AFL season you said he could hardly improve. But through all of that, he has struck out 200 times and walked just 98 times.

The guy has been a .300 hitter, but do you really want your leadoff man striking out twice as often as he walks?

My guess is that the Giants are quite happy with Gary's .313 AFL. I looked beyond the raw numbers and was worried about his 14 strikeouts compared to 5 walks. A somewhat lesser concern is that for all his blazing speed, Brown is highly inefficient at stealing bases. In the AFL he was only 2 for 5.

In a little over two years in the minors, he has stolen 88 bases, which is quite good -- except that he has been caught 38 times.

I think Gary could play center field at AT&T right now. And I think his base running would be OK, if nowhere near what it could be.

But the scouting report I get on Gary at the plate is that he has poor mechanics, that he has just enough gap power to cause him to swing too hard at times -- and that he strikes out too much and walks too seldom.

What have you seen that I have missed by not having had the luxury of seeing him play?


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[sfgdood]

Rog -- This is hardly news. By the way, Randy, you do have the distinct advantage of having seen Gary play -- an advantage I enjoyed at various times with Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. Given your advantage, Randy, what am I missing?

Dood - What anyone would miss by not seeing a player and judging solely on stats...a player's swing, how balanced he is, how often he puts the barrel on the ball, how often he beats out routine ground balls for hits, how good a jump he gets on balls in the outfield, how his speed effects a defense and a pitcher, the strength and accuracy of his throwing arm.

As for what Gary needs to work on, yes he walks far too seldom for a leadoff hitter...but there's nothing wrong with hitting him down in the order until he improves his batting eye. He could even be as good a #2 hitter as was Freddie Sanchez, who also didnt walk much.

It's true Gary's steal % isnt top notch but if a guy swipes 40-50 bases that is a potent weapon and will surely give him better pitches to hit, which improves his overall game. It will also give the man behind him in the order more fastballs to hit when Gary is on base.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Dood - What anyone would miss by not seeing a player and judging solely on stats...

Rog -- Unlike you, I haven't seen Gary play. But I have read what others say who have seen him play.

Randy -- a player's swing, how balanced he is, how often he puts the barrel on the ball,

Rog -- From what I read, Gary's hitting mechanics aren't good.

Randy -- how often he beats out routine ground balls for hits, how good a jump he gets on balls in the outfield, how his speed effects a defense and a pitcher, the strength and accuracy of his throwing arm.

Rog -- I believe all those to be very good. You haven't told me enough that I don't already know (or at least assume) for me to change my opinion.

One thing to remember here is that Gary is 24 years old and has yet to play above AA. IIRC you expected him to be the starting center fielder in 2013, which isn't likely to happen.

Here is what I expect from Gary:

. Hitting -- .270 hitter who doesn't walk enough.

. Base running -- tremendous speed, but doesn't have the instincts to fully take advantage.

. Fielding -- Excellent range with at least a solid-average arm, and probably a bit above.

Gary certainly has tools. A year ago Baseball America chose him as having the best hitting for average, fastest base runner, best athlete, and best defensive outfielder in the Giants' system. But so much of a position player's value is determined at the plate, and it is there that I don't think Gary will achieve well enough to become more than a second-division starting center fielder.


Gary has some tremendous tools, but I think he will leave us looking for more. I'm more than willing to be convinced otherwise. Convince me -- please.


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[sharksrog]

Randy -- It's true Gary's steal % isnt top notch but if a guy swipes 40-50 bases that is a potent weapon and will surely give him better pitches to hit, which improves his overall game. It will also give the man behind him in the order more fastballs to hit when Gary is on base.

Rog -- I don't think Gary will be efficient enough to greatly change team's game plans. One can look at a guy with Gary's speed on first base with one out as a guy who is close to being on second. Or he can also look at him as being close to the second out.


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[sfgdood]

Rog -- From what I read, Gary's hitting mechanics aren't good.

Dood - I have read that they are very good and I have also read that they are bad. What I have seen with my own eyes is a guy who is pretty much on balance most of the time lacing frozen ropes from gap to gap.



One thing to remember here is that Gary is 24 years old and has yet to play above AA. IIRC you expected him to be the starting center fielder in 2013, which isn't likely to happen.

Dood - that was based on the Giants not bringing in a veteran on a long term deal like Angel Pagan. I still don't believe Gary would be a bad option for most ML teams...but a reigning WS champion will more often go for a veteran in that spot.



Gary certainly has tools. A year ago Baseball America chose him as having the best hitting for average, fastest base runner, best athlete, and best defensive outfielder in the Giants' system. But so much of a position player's value is determined at the plate, and it is there that I don't think Gary will achieve well enough to become more than a second-division starting center fielder.

Dood - Based on stats and the opinions of other stats geeks? That's quite a leap.




Gary has some tremendous tools, but I think he will leave us looking for more. I'm more than willing to be convinced otherwise. Convince me -- please.

Dood - How am i to convince you when your mule brain is already made up? You showed earlier how convinced you are about players early on. I'll bet you are one of those geeks that said that Ozzie Smith would never hit above 250. I can tell you all that I saw but you have shown that you will always go with stats over personal observation. Only Gary himself will be able to convince you...maybe you will believe your own eyes since you don't believe mine.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Rog -- From what I read, Gary's hitting mechanics aren't good.

Dood - I have read that they are very good and I have also read that they are bad. What I have seen with my own eyes is a guy who is pretty much on balance most of the time lacing frozen ropes from gap to gap.

Rog -- One of the positives of scouting is that it is based on actually seeing something. One of the negatives is that different scouts will see different things. Another is that scouting is based on seeing a player a finite number of times -- some of which the player can look good, and others of which he can look bad.

If one sees the good times, he thinks the player is good; if he sees the bad, that is how he sees the player.

By the way, can you refer me to the sources that believe Gary's hitting mechanics are good? I hope they exist and are accurate assessments, but I haven't yet come across them.

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[sharksrog]

Rog -- One thing to remember here is that Gary is 24 years old and has yet to play above AA. IIRC you expected him to be the starting center fielder in 2013, which isn't likely to happen.

Dood - that was based on the Giants not bringing in a veteran on a long term deal like Angel Pagan. I still don't believe Gary would be a bad option for most ML teams...but a reigning WS champion will more often go for a veteran in that spot.

Rog -- Didn't the Giants already have Angel Pagan when you predicted Gary would open the 2013 season in center? Don't know how it would affect "chemistry," but Angel could certainly be moved to a corner spot, where he would likely be a better defender.

Let's look back at Gary's career and see what assumptions it might lead us to.

He signed too late to play much in 2010, but he began in the rookie league and moved up to short season ball. Not starting Gary out at Salem-Keizer (short season ball) might have been a yellow flag, but not necessarily.

In 2011 he had a great season at San Jose, yet wasn't promoted to AA midseason as had been the case with Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson. I was surprised the Giants didn't push him to AA.

Last season he bounced back from a very slow start to have a decent season in a low-hitting Eastern League (AA). No hint of a promotion to AAA though.

This year he is expected to start out at AAA Fresno. I would have expected him to advance more quickly if he were truly a top prospect, but if he performs well at Fresno, he'll pretty much be right back on track.

Gary is ranked ahead of Joe Panik as a prospect, and he performed better at San Jose than Joe did. But Gary was also a year older at San Jose than Joe was.

Joe too has dropped as a prospect, and had a horrible AFL. But I believe his strike zone control and more natural hitting style will make him a clearly better hitter than Gary, who is easily the better fielder.

I'm hoping that Gary will gain more control of the strike zone, but most hitters with poor K/BB/HR ratios don't.


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[sharksrog]

Gary certainly has tools. A year ago Baseball America chose him as having the best hitting for average, fastest base runner, best athlete, and best defensive outfielder in the Giants' system. But so much of a position player's value is determined at the plate, and it is there that I don't think Gary will achieve well enough to become more than a second-division starting center fielder.

Dood - Based on stats and the opinions of other stats geeks? That's quite a leap.

Rog -- Actually, it is an opinion based on statistical analysis and the scouting reports of others. I may have seen the opinions of other "stats geeks," but I don't recall any.

You are being defensive here, Randy, instead of trying to learn something. I asked questions of you because I was hoping to get another opinion and widen my scope. I'm not seeing questions from you that are designed to increase your perspective. I'm mostly seeing a defensive, critizing posture.


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[sharksrog]

Rog -- Gary has some tremendous tools, but I think he will leave us looking for more. I'm more than willing to be convinced otherwise. Convince me -- please.

Dood - How am i to convince you when your mule brain is already made up?

Rog -- Because my "mule brain" is looking to gain as much information as possible -- something you show little sign of doing.

Randy -- You showed earlier how convinced you are about players early on.

Rog -- I make evaluations based on the information I have at hand -- which is why I continue to look for new sources of information. I value your opinion, but you haven't given me much in the way of specifics.

Randy -- I'll bet you are one of those geeks that said that Ozzie Smith would never hit above 250.

Rog -- Actually, Randy, I have addressed that very point right here on the board. Average-wise, Ozzie DIDN'T show early signs of becoming the hitter he became. But if one paid attention to K/BB ratio, he did.

Although Ozzie played only one partial season of minor league ball (at age 22), he walked 40 times and struck out just 12. Think something like that would get my attention?

Ozzie played 7 major league seasons before he hit even .260. Yet in those seasons, his K/BB ratio ranged from a best of 56/17 to a worst of 37/37. Think I would have had a belief that he might hit?

Randy -- I can tell you all that I saw but you have shown that you will always go with stats over personal observation.

Rog -- I like to get as much of each as I can. I do my own statistical analysis, and if I can't scout a player personally, I am forced to rely on the scouting reports of others.

Randy -- Only Gary himself will be able to convince you...maybe you will believe your own eyes since you don't believe mine.

Rog -- It's not that I don't believe your eyes. It's more that I don't know how many of Gary's games you have seen and how good you are at scouting.

You haven't told me his strengths and weaknesses as a hitter, which pitches he likes to hit and which he doesn't, how often he goes outside the strike zone, or given me a mechanical analysis as Boly would.

That's the kind of stuff I would like to hear from you. It's not so much that I don't value your opinion. (In fact, I usually do.) It's that you haven't given me enough of it.

As for how open your mind is on the matter, you have misquoted me (I didn't say that Gary's ceiling was as a Four A player. In fact, I stated that I expected him to become the Giants' starting center fielder.) You have "bet" that I was one who said Ozzie Smith would never hit .250, when in fact I have stated the opposite right here on the board -- and even cited the same method I am using to help forge my opinion that Gary won't become a star.

A year ago I stated here that because of your personal observations and opinions, I was increasing my opinion of Gary (even though you think my mind is always made up). I have since revised my opinion downward to approximately where it was the first time.

I am willing to be convinced by Gary -- and even by you, for that matter. Speak to me. I listened a year ago, but I need more details this time around.

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