Post by sharksrog on Dec 7, 2012 19:46:02 GMT -5
With the re-signings of Jeremy Affeldt, Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, the Giants have accomplished their primary objectives in building/rebuilding their 2013 roster. Meanwhile, other teams have tried to catch up to/move ahead of the Giants with moves of their own.
The Nationals traded for Denard Span, giving them more outfield range and allowing them to move Rookie of the Year and likely future MVP candidate Bryce Harper to right field. Today they added Dan Haren to their pitching rotation, already one of the best in the majors.
The Phillies have traded for center fielder Ben Revere. Hearing about how little power Revere -- a speedster, very good defender and decent average hitter -- had got me thinking about Emmanuel Burriss, who never developed the way the Giants hoped he would, twice losing the starting second base job.
Back a few years ago I cited Burriss's extreme lack of power as a possible red flag. So I decided to evaluate him in comparison with Revere, another extremely low-power guy.
Let's look at them beginning with the minor leagues.
Revere averaged 1.24 bases per hit to Burriss's 1.22. Revere had a 143/152/5 K/BB/HR ratio to Manny's 152/122/4. Slight advantage Revere, but pretty darn close.
Revere's more common stats were .326/.383/.404/.787 to Burriss's .284/.347/.346/.693. Those certainly weighed in favor of Revere, although Burriss's stats -- especially OBP -- weren't bad.
The biggest difference was that Revere was much younger (19 to 24) than Burriss (21 to 27).
Revere appears to be easily the better prospect.
In the majors, Revere hasn't been very good (.278/.319/.323/.642), but Burriss has been terrible (.243/.304/.269/.573). And each shares the dubious distinction of having his OPS drop sharply from the minors to the majors. Revere suffered a 145 point drop, and Burriss declined by 120 points.
On a percentage basis, Revere dropped 18.7%, while Burriss lost 17.4%.
Revere became the better major league player he projected to be, but neither player was nearly as good as his raw numbers would normally project.
Intriguingly, both players looked good on the K/BB scale, but when HR was added, both fell off dramatically.
There will be exceptions, but players who hit for exceptionally low power in the minor leagues will usually have trouble in the majors. Especially, the older the player is.
Jose Vizcaino and especially Omar Vizquel are two exceptions that come to mind, but both players were very young in the minors. Vizcaino played from age 19 to 22, while Vizquel played from 17 to 23.
Although Vizquel never became a particularly good hitter, his OPS went UP in the majors. Vizcaino's went down slightly.
Vizquel's 1.32 bases per hit was easily the best of the four players, and he also started his minor league career at the youngest age (by two years).
So we see that here the following factors were at play:
. Hitters with exceptionally low bases per hit are likely to experience a significant drop off.
. That effect is worse for older minor league players than younger ones.
. K/BB/HR ratio remains important.
. The standard stats aren't lacking in importance, either. So all four things should be considered.
. Of all the factors, BB may be the most important. The best power hitters are feared and thus walk. The little-ball hitters have good strike zone control and thus walk more than others.
. A home run guy can strike out a lot -- as long as he walks. A little-ball guy needs to get on base, so he needs to walk a fair amount -- lest he make too many outs.
. The K/BB/HR rules don't seem to be as strict for Latin players, whose minor league performance can be artificially diminished by the "gotta hit to get off the island" mentality -- and often a better ability to hit bad balls.
The Nationals traded for Denard Span, giving them more outfield range and allowing them to move Rookie of the Year and likely future MVP candidate Bryce Harper to right field. Today they added Dan Haren to their pitching rotation, already one of the best in the majors.
The Phillies have traded for center fielder Ben Revere. Hearing about how little power Revere -- a speedster, very good defender and decent average hitter -- had got me thinking about Emmanuel Burriss, who never developed the way the Giants hoped he would, twice losing the starting second base job.
Back a few years ago I cited Burriss's extreme lack of power as a possible red flag. So I decided to evaluate him in comparison with Revere, another extremely low-power guy.
Let's look at them beginning with the minor leagues.
Revere averaged 1.24 bases per hit to Burriss's 1.22. Revere had a 143/152/5 K/BB/HR ratio to Manny's 152/122/4. Slight advantage Revere, but pretty darn close.
Revere's more common stats were .326/.383/.404/.787 to Burriss's .284/.347/.346/.693. Those certainly weighed in favor of Revere, although Burriss's stats -- especially OBP -- weren't bad.
The biggest difference was that Revere was much younger (19 to 24) than Burriss (21 to 27).
Revere appears to be easily the better prospect.
In the majors, Revere hasn't been very good (.278/.319/.323/.642), but Burriss has been terrible (.243/.304/.269/.573). And each shares the dubious distinction of having his OPS drop sharply from the minors to the majors. Revere suffered a 145 point drop, and Burriss declined by 120 points.
On a percentage basis, Revere dropped 18.7%, while Burriss lost 17.4%.
Revere became the better major league player he projected to be, but neither player was nearly as good as his raw numbers would normally project.
Intriguingly, both players looked good on the K/BB scale, but when HR was added, both fell off dramatically.
There will be exceptions, but players who hit for exceptionally low power in the minor leagues will usually have trouble in the majors. Especially, the older the player is.
Jose Vizcaino and especially Omar Vizquel are two exceptions that come to mind, but both players were very young in the minors. Vizcaino played from age 19 to 22, while Vizquel played from 17 to 23.
Although Vizquel never became a particularly good hitter, his OPS went UP in the majors. Vizcaino's went down slightly.
Vizquel's 1.32 bases per hit was easily the best of the four players, and he also started his minor league career at the youngest age (by two years).
So we see that here the following factors were at play:
. Hitters with exceptionally low bases per hit are likely to experience a significant drop off.
. That effect is worse for older minor league players than younger ones.
. K/BB/HR ratio remains important.
. The standard stats aren't lacking in importance, either. So all four things should be considered.
. Of all the factors, BB may be the most important. The best power hitters are feared and thus walk. The little-ball hitters have good strike zone control and thus walk more than others.
. A home run guy can strike out a lot -- as long as he walks. A little-ball guy needs to get on base, so he needs to walk a fair amount -- lest he make too many outs.
. The K/BB/HR rules don't seem to be as strict for Latin players, whose minor league performance can be artificially diminished by the "gotta hit to get off the island" mentality -- and often a better ability to hit bad balls.
