Post by sharksrog on Dec 3, 2012 16:52:28 GMT -5
In 2012 the cost of a win from a free agent signing was about $4.4 million. With free agent prices up about 20% this year, that will likely rise to above $5 million per win.
The Giants are trying to replace Angel Pagan (4 wins), Marco Scutaro (2 wins) and Melky Cabrera (5 wins). That's 11 wins, which average on the free agent market would cost about $55 million.
The Giants don't have that much to spend. In fact, they likely don't have more than half that much. Which means they need to spend their available money smartly.
That average $5 million per win includes not only the good performers, but the poor performers, non-performers and injured players.
So the Giants can't afford another Barry Zito or Aubrey Huff. No Aaron Rowan or Edgar Renteria. No Miguel Tejada.
By the way, let's suppose the Giants had re-signed Pagan, Cabrera and Scutaro. (The Giants didn't want Cabrera, and he's gone of course.) The trio could likely have been signed for between $25 and $28 million -- or just about the amount the Giants have to spend.
Would we expect Pagan to repeat last season? Perhaps. That would provide 4 wins. Would we expect Cabrera to repeat last season? Given the steriods issue, probably not. Let's suppose he would be good for 3 wins, or about half as many wins as he was on pace for in 2012 prior to being suspended.
How about Scutaro? His bat more or less replaced Melky's, but we would be foolish to expect a repeat. That said, over a full season, he should be worth about the same two wins as in his partial Giants season of 2012.
So that's 6 wins from Pagan (who just re-signed at a reported 4/$40) and Scutaro (who will probably command something like 2/$15).
So the Giants are likely left with about $8 million (the average amount Melky signed for in Toronto) to pick up 5 more wins. They are likely to get closer to 2 more for that amount.
That means the Giants would lose three wins. How do they make it up?
The biggest source of improvement should be Tim Lincecum. His average Wins Above Replacment last season was minus two. That's right, minus two. He pitched BELOW replacement level.
In 2010 and 2011 he averaged three wins above replacement. Let's take one away from that and say he is worth two next season. That's an improvement of four wins.
Next should be Brandon Belt. This is surprising, but he was worth three wins last season. Got on base a lot and fielded well. If Brandon finally hits, he could be worth five wins, which would be a two-win increase.
Finally, let's go with Pablo Sandoval. Not that Pablo had a bad season, but he was injured, an injury that diminished his power (which came back in the World Series). Pablo was worth two wins after being worth six wins in 2011.
Since Pablo's six wins in 2011 came in 3/4ths of a season (due to injury), let's suppose he can get back to at least five wins. That's an improvement of three wins.
Lincecum, Belt and Sandoval could improve by nine wins. The Giants were three short of replacing Pagan, Scutaro and Cabrera (assuming re-signing Scutaro and a decent left fielder). That's a net improvement of six wins. Sounds great, doesn't it?
One problem to consider though. Most teams suffer a drop back the year after winning the World Series (as the Giants did in 2011). That could complicate things.
But if Lincecum, Belt and Sandoval improve and the rest of the team performs as expected, the Giants could push 100 wins.
Especially with Pagan having been re-signed at a reasonable amount (if not perhaps for a year too long), I'm getting more and more optimistic.
There are SO many variables that go into the making of a season. Which players will have a good year, and which ones will be bad?
But assuming the re-signing of Scutaro and signing a decent left fielder, the Giants appear likely to at least make the playoffs -- and possibly even lead the NL in wins.
One other problem. We don't know how much the Dodgers will spend. But thus far it doesn't look as if they have gotten value for their buck.
While with the re-signing of Pagan, the Giants could be off to a good start.
The Giants are trying to replace Angel Pagan (4 wins), Marco Scutaro (2 wins) and Melky Cabrera (5 wins). That's 11 wins, which average on the free agent market would cost about $55 million.
The Giants don't have that much to spend. In fact, they likely don't have more than half that much. Which means they need to spend their available money smartly.
That average $5 million per win includes not only the good performers, but the poor performers, non-performers and injured players.
So the Giants can't afford another Barry Zito or Aubrey Huff. No Aaron Rowan or Edgar Renteria. No Miguel Tejada.
By the way, let's suppose the Giants had re-signed Pagan, Cabrera and Scutaro. (The Giants didn't want Cabrera, and he's gone of course.) The trio could likely have been signed for between $25 and $28 million -- or just about the amount the Giants have to spend.
Would we expect Pagan to repeat last season? Perhaps. That would provide 4 wins. Would we expect Cabrera to repeat last season? Given the steriods issue, probably not. Let's suppose he would be good for 3 wins, or about half as many wins as he was on pace for in 2012 prior to being suspended.
How about Scutaro? His bat more or less replaced Melky's, but we would be foolish to expect a repeat. That said, over a full season, he should be worth about the same two wins as in his partial Giants season of 2012.
So that's 6 wins from Pagan (who just re-signed at a reported 4/$40) and Scutaro (who will probably command something like 2/$15).
So the Giants are likely left with about $8 million (the average amount Melky signed for in Toronto) to pick up 5 more wins. They are likely to get closer to 2 more for that amount.
That means the Giants would lose three wins. How do they make it up?
The biggest source of improvement should be Tim Lincecum. His average Wins Above Replacment last season was minus two. That's right, minus two. He pitched BELOW replacement level.
In 2010 and 2011 he averaged three wins above replacement. Let's take one away from that and say he is worth two next season. That's an improvement of four wins.
Next should be Brandon Belt. This is surprising, but he was worth three wins last season. Got on base a lot and fielded well. If Brandon finally hits, he could be worth five wins, which would be a two-win increase.
Finally, let's go with Pablo Sandoval. Not that Pablo had a bad season, but he was injured, an injury that diminished his power (which came back in the World Series). Pablo was worth two wins after being worth six wins in 2011.
Since Pablo's six wins in 2011 came in 3/4ths of a season (due to injury), let's suppose he can get back to at least five wins. That's an improvement of three wins.
Lincecum, Belt and Sandoval could improve by nine wins. The Giants were three short of replacing Pagan, Scutaro and Cabrera (assuming re-signing Scutaro and a decent left fielder). That's a net improvement of six wins. Sounds great, doesn't it?
One problem to consider though. Most teams suffer a drop back the year after winning the World Series (as the Giants did in 2011). That could complicate things.
But if Lincecum, Belt and Sandoval improve and the rest of the team performs as expected, the Giants could push 100 wins.
Especially with Pagan having been re-signed at a reasonable amount (if not perhaps for a year too long), I'm getting more and more optimistic.
There are SO many variables that go into the making of a season. Which players will have a good year, and which ones will be bad?
But assuming the re-signing of Scutaro and signing a decent left fielder, the Giants appear likely to at least make the playoffs -- and possibly even lead the NL in wins.
One other problem. We don't know how much the Dodgers will spend. But thus far it doesn't look as if they have gotten value for their buck.
While with the re-signing of Pagan, the Giants could be off to a good start.
