Giants in the Arizona Fall League -- Gary Brown

[sharksrog]

Six Giants played in the Arizona Fall League this year. Most fared well statistically. But what does it all mean?

Gary Brown is the Giants' #1 prospect. He hit well in the AFL, batting .313. But he also showed significant question marks.

First, despite his impressive average, his OBP was only .357. A .357 OBP is fine for a leadoff man, but Brown isn't likely to hit .313 in the majors. He relies too heavily for his batting average to get him on base.

Second, while he is considered to have good pop for a leadoff man, he didn't show it. Only three of his 20 hits were for extra bases, none of them home runs.

Third, his K/BB ratio of 14/5 was very discouraging for a leadoff hitter.

Fourth, 14 strikeouts in 64 at bats is a lot of strikeouts for a leadoff man.

Fifth, his two steals in five attempts shows he still hasn't learned to read pitchers well enough take advantage o his blazing speed.

[Islandboagie]

Brown is a young kid trying to impress, he's not trying to walk. He's also apparently a guy who takes a while to get going, much like Posey was...Didn't Posey also have alot of question marks during the AFL in 2009? I recall there were enough question marks that the Giants ended up resigning Bengie Molina to a 1 year deal.

I would have prefered Brown have a great AFL, but I don't think this something to worry about. Now, if he has a bad year in Fresno I'll be worried.

[rxmeister]

Gary may need to be ready sooner rather than later. According to Buster Olney, the Giants "aren't committed" to re-signing Angel Pagan. Pagan wants a three year deal at least, (as he should) and the Giants want to give him less. Thus surprises me, as the Giants have to know that a player 31 years old isn't going to want a two year deal at a time he's looking for the best contract of his career.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Brown is a young kid trying to impress, he's not trying to walk.

Rog -- You're getting to the heart of the matter here. Of course he's not specifically trying to walk. But most good hitters have such good plate control that they just do so.

Brown will eventually become the Giants' leadoff hitter. And what do you want from your leadoff hitter?

You want him to get on base. You want him to walk, to put the ball in play to take advantage of his speed. That results in a good K/BB ratio. Gary doesn't do those things.

Gary's minor league K/BB ratio is 176/92, and in two AFL stints it is 24/6. That shows poor strike zone control. Gary doesn't walk enough for a leadoff man, and he strikes out too much.

I have been somewhat down on Gary ever since the Giants drafted him, coming off a college season in which he batted .438 (!) but had only 9 walks.

Boagie -- He's also apparently a guy who takes a while to get going, much like Posey was...Didn't Posey also have alot of question marks during the AFL in 2009?

Rog -- Once again, Boagie, you're doing a great job of getting at the heart of the matter. Buster DID have what traditionalists would consider a poor AFL in 2009, batting just .225. But his K/BB ratio was 18/13, which is much better for a power hitter than Brown's worrisome 24/6 is for a leadoff guy.

Remember Gary's 176/92 K/BB ratio as a minor leaguer? Buster's was 102/98, which is exceptional for a power hitter.

Brandon Belt had a very similar K/BB ratio in the minors, but he gave signs in the 2010 AFL that he might not be completely ready. His K/BB ratio soared to 24/9.

I certainly don't ignore a minor league batter's batting average and amount of power. But I carefully watch his K/BB ratio (or, since power hitters naturally strike out more, their K/BB/HR ratio). Watching those numbers help discern between the guy who hit in the minors but is likely to become a backup or Four-A player and the player who is likely to become a starter or star.

Boagie -- I recall there were enough question marks that the Giants ended up resigning Bengie Molina to a 1 year deal.

Rog -- I think the Giants re-signed Bengie (for $2.0 million less than they had paid him the previous season) so they would have flexibility with Buster. If the Giants had opened the 2010 season with Buster, he would be eligible for free agency in three years instead of four. If they had called him up a bit later (or not brought him up in September, 2009) he would be eligible for arbitration a year from now instead of now.

Buster's batting average in the AFL wasn't very good, but his K/BB ratio was still OK. A year later Belt WAS considered to have had an excellent if not outstanding AFL (a .372 average and a 1.043 OPS). Which was a better predictor of success the following season -- Buster's .225 average compared to Belt's .372 or Buster's 18/13 K/BB ratio compared to Brandon's 24/9?

Boagie -- I would have prefered Brown have a great AFL, but I don't think this something to worry about.

Rog -- Once again, you're right on point. Brown hit .313, so traditionalists were likely happy with his AFL season. I was the one who pointed out my concern because of his 14/5 K/BB ratio and the fact that he built that .313 average on an unsustainable .400 BABIP.

.340 would be a good BABIP for Brown. (His career minor league BABIP -- which almost always comes down in the majors -- is .343.) A .340 BABIP would have given him a .266 average and just a .314 OBP. I think that latter may be a little low, but I don't think those numbers are too far off my expectations for him in the majors.

I just don't think Brown is going to get on base enough. Aside from the fact Gary stole only 2 bases in 5 attempts, I'll bet the Giants were pleased with his Fall League. Who would complain about a .313 average and a .357 OBP?

Let me simply say that I'm not as impressed as they likely are. My best expectation is that Brown will at some point play center field and lead off for the Giants. My best expectation is that he won't get on base enough.

I don't think anyone questions Gary's defense. By all accounts, he'll do quite well at AT&T, where he can show off his 80 (on a scouting scale of 20-80) speed. That's Darren Ford-like. But if you like scouting reports as well as analytics (and who doesn't?), you'll be disappointed to know he has a poor mechanical swing, although he is considered to have above-average pop for a leadoff hitter.

Boagie -- Now, if he has a bad year in Fresno I'll be worried.

Rog -- Let's not forget that Nate Schierholtz was a very good hitter at Fresno. He once hit .333 with a .560 SLG. Wonderful season, right? I would have to say his 58/17 K/BB ratio that season was more predictive.

Bottom line: Most will tell you Gary had a wonderful AFL this year. I will tell you I'm not nearly as impressed as most.

I hope Randy will post on this topic. I know he likes Brown a LOT. And he has had the advantage of seeing Gary play, which I haven't.

Let's see how he turns out. I think we'll LOVE him defensively. And .270 is an OK average for a leadoff hitter who walks. But in Gary's case, a .270 average likely translates to a .325 OBP, and that just isn't high enough for a leadoff hitter. Especially one who despite all his speed, doesn't steal bases efficiently.


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[sharksrog]

Mark -- Gary may need to be ready sooner rather than later. According to Buster Olney, the Giants "aren't committed" to re-signing Angel Pagan. Pagan wants a three year deal at least, (as he should) and the Giants want to give him less. Thus surprises me, as the Giants have to know that a player 31 years old isn't going to want a two year deal at a time he's looking for the best contract of his career.

Rog -- I think the Giants were hoping for something like 3/$30 million, and Angel is hoping for something like 4/$50. I think his final contract will be closer to the latter than the former. Maybe something like 4/$45.

Frankly, that's too much to pay for Angel. But almost all free agents cost too much (compared to pre-free agency players). The primary question is how much too much?

If it were a year from now, I think the Giants could get by with a Blanco/Brown platoon in center. The defense would be GREAT. But I would be surprised if Brown is ready in less than a year, so for now that would be relying very heavily on Blanco.

The Giants have only Blanco and Hunter Pence for sure. They need three more outfielders, with hopefully two of them being of good starting quality.

I wouldn't go overboard for Pagan, although I do think he was a very good chemistry player last season, much as his predecessor Andres Torres was. I hope the Giants re-sign Angel, but I think he is a good player who will command very-good-player money.

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