About as good as I've seen

[sharksrog]

Certainly Buster Posey is about as good as I've seen as a catcher with the Giants (and I can say that even after the equivalent of two full seasons), but he is seemingly as good with regard to sharing his glory with teammates.

I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone better at it, and he comes across as genuine.

Holding his twins with the help of his wife when given the MVP Award on MLB TV was a very wholesome touch too.

Anyway, arguably the best season ever by a Giants catcher, and easily the best of any catcher in SF.

[klaiggeb]

Certainly Buster Posey is about as good as I've seen as a catcher with the Giants (and I can say that even after the equivalent of two full seasons), but he is seemingly as good with regard to sharing his glory with teammates.

I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone better at it, and he comes across as genuine.

Holding his twins with the help of his wife when given the MVP Award on MLB TV was a very wholesome touch too.

Anyway, arguably the best season ever by a Giants catcher, and easily the best of any catcher in SF.

---boly says---

arguably?

I can't think of a better one.

Some guys, may have hit more HRs, some may have had a better average, but add the RBIs in and I can't think of even 1 that did what he did.

Defensively, as I've pointed out, and imho... he's better than avereage at blocking balls, outstanding in the throwing department.

boly



boly

[Islandboagie]

arguably?

I can't think of a better one.

Some guys, may have hit more HRs, some may have had a better average, but add the RBIs in and I can't think of even 1 that did what he did.

Defensively, as I've pointed out, and imho... he's better than avereage at blocking balls, outstanding in the throwing department.

boly


Boagie- Well said, Boly.

I don't mean to beat up on Brian Kenny too much, but I kinda do. One factor Kenny figured into his pick for the NL MVP was defense, and he claimed Buster was a little bit above average at throwing out runners, and that Molina was the best, and Braun was a better defender at his position than Buster. I find his opinion of Buster's ability to throw out runners only based on weak numbers. In reality Buster is among the very best at throwing out runners, but the Giants pitchers inability to hold runners on have made his stats look just a little above average. Overall Buster threw out more runners than anyone else. You would think an analyst would have mentioned that, but aparently he didn't quantify those factors in his intellectually superior mind.

I think most of us can agree Buster is a good defensive catcher, while he's likely not the best (Molina is the best defensively IMO) I think marking a point against Posey on his defense is rather foolish and proves you don't pay attention.

I know the discussion is on just Giants catchers, but let's expand it to all catchers in baseball. How many catchers in baseball had offensive numbers like Posey and also proven to be good defensively?

Piazza was very good offensively, but he sucked defensively.

I'll admit, I don't know that much about Joe Mauer, I know he's a good pure hitter, but I've always had the impression he was below average or average defensively.

Ivan Rodriguez might be a close comparison, Posey's strength coming at the plate, Rodriguez' coming from behind the plate, both solid all around.

But I think the best comparison is probably Johnny Bench. Strong offensively with power, with a great arm. Both were also big parts of pennant winning teams early in their careers.

Gary Carter might also be a reasonable comparison. Although I think Buster put up an mvp type year earlier than anyone mentioned here.

I'm trying to think of someone who hasn't been elected into the HoF yet, because claiming Buster is as good as Carter or Bench is a tad presumptuous at this point. Posey has a long way to go before he's legitimately in the same discussion as those guys. But, anyone would be lying if they didn't see some correlation between Buster and Bench.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- I don't mean to beat up on Brian Kenny too much, but I kinda do. One factor Kenny figured into his pick for the NL MVP was defense, and he claimed Buster was a little bit above average at throwing out runners, and that Molina was the best, and Braun was a better defender at his position than Buster. I find his opinion of Buster's ability to throw out runners only based on weak numbers. In reality Buster is among the very best at throwing out runners, but the Giants pitchers inability to hold runners on have made his stats look just a little above average. Overall Buster threw out more runners than anyone else. You would think an analyst would have mentioned that, but aparently he didn't quantify those factors in his intellectually superior mind.

Rog -- While I agree that Brian Kenny can be a bit abrasive, I think you're being WAY too hard on him.

Now, I don't remember from which analyst each comment came, but here is how I remember the comparison of Buster and Braun, and of Buster's defense compared to Molina's.

Braun was considered the more all-around player than Buster, since Buster lacks speed, while Braun is pretty much above average in every category. Braun's numbers were better than Buster's, although the park differential was mentioned as a factor in that.

To the best of my memory, that is why Kenny chose Braun. As I have mentioned, for me, Buster's playing a premium position and playing in a pitchers' park easily overcome the other factors.

Regarding the defense of Buster vs. Molina, it was pointed out that Yadier threw out 48% of base stealers compared to Buster's 30%. That more runners tried to steal against Buster than against any other catcher and that fewer runners tried to steal against Yadier than any other catcher was also mentioned.

Yadier's having made only 3 errors compared to Buster's 8 was mentioned, as well as Yadier's helping the Cardinal pitching staff to a lower ERA despite the loss of pitching coach Dave Duncan.

Personally, while I might pick Buster as high as the 2nd-best defensive catcher in the league, Yadier is a nonpareil. I figure when Yadier retires -- or perhaps even late in his career -- Buster will win some Gold Gloves. But IMO right now Yadier is defensively head and shoulders above any other catcher in the NL.

Buster has been criticized here for his ball blocking skills, but believe it or not, I do think he is at least the equal of Yadier in that regard.

Molina allowed 36 wild pitches and 6 passed balls this past season. Despite catching what may well have been a tougher pitching staff, Buster allowed just 26 and 2.

Perhaps because of his ankle's healing, Buster made quite a few errors early in the season. Later on, he didn't make many. And he does make most of his errors by being aggressive, trying to make difficult plays.

I probably think as highly of Buster's defense as anyone here -- with both you and I making good points here IMO -- but I do think Yadier is clearly better at this point. Yadier has won five straight Gold Gloves, and he's just a rock back there.

Yadier has thrown out 45% of runners over his career, compared to a league average of 28%. That likely makes him better compared to his peers than any other catcher in history.

Both Buster and Yadier have much better defensive stats than their backups.


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[klaiggeb]

I don't mean to beat up on Brian Kenny too much, but I kinda do. One factor Kenny figured into his pick for the NL MVP was defense, and he claimed Buster was a little bit above average at throwing out runners,

---boly says---

I have no clue who Brian Kinney is, but based upon what he said... he's simply not looking at all of the factors that are involved in a catcher's "caught stealing" percentage.

The pitcher's ability to hold runners, or, as in the case of Lincecum, Bumgarner, INability to keep runners close has a HUGE effect on the numbers the catchers end up.

Most of us watch Buster virtually every game. What we continue to see are, quick, high velocity, accurate throws.

To NOT even factor in the pitchers "hold the runner" ability, is simply short sighted, and not very smart.

boly

[Islandboagie]

I have no clue who Brian Kinney is, but based upon what he said... he's simply not looking at all of the factors that are involved in a catcher's "caught stealing" percentage.

Brian Kenny, he used to announce boxing on ESPN, now he's the host of Clubhouse Confidential on the MLB Network. He's a stats geek who has very questionable knowledge about the game of baseball outside of the numbers.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- I don't mean to beat up on Brian Kenny too much, but I kinda do. One factor Kenny figured into his pick for the NL MVP was defense, and he claimed Buster was a little bit above average at throwing out runners,

---boly says---

I have no clue who Brian Kinney is, but based upon what he said... he's simply not looking at all of the factors that are involved in a catcher's "caught stealing" percentage.

The pitcher's ability to hold runners, or, as in the case of Lincecum, Bumgarner, INability to keep runners close has a HUGE effect on the numbers the catchers end up.

Most of us watch Buster virtually every game. What we continue to see are, quick, high velocity, accurate throws.

To NOT even factor in the pitchers "hold the runner" ability, is simply short sighted, and not very smart.

Rog -- Believe me, Brian Kenny -- who hosts the show "Clubhouse Confidential" on the MLB Network -- knows about all that. Let's not forget that he is limited by time constraints and is forced to summarize many things both in the interest of time and in some cases because he can't get too deeply into things because he would lose his audiences.

The point Brian was trying to make is that Buster is a good defensive catcher, while Yadier is a nonpareil.

Personally, I was a little disappointed in Buster's throwing this season -- especially early -- because he often had the ball sail off to the right. He made multiple throwing errors early.

Here would be my personal scouting report on Buster's defense, and I hope others will add to it:

. A bit of a dichotomy in that he is praised by many of his pitchers and others for his pitch-calling and handling the game, but has other hurlers who prefer to pitch to his backup. Cerebral.

. Very strong throwing arm with better-than-average release, but has a tendency to have his throws sail right -- especially early in the year, when his footwork may have been thrown off by recovery from serious injury. Caught stealing percentage is limited by his pitchers' inability to hold runners close. In one game, threw out a runner at each of the three bases, including two in one inning. Throwing improved as the season went on to where he as excellent by season's end.

. After injury, has been told to sweep tag on plays at the plate. Sometimes loses time by using that technique, but is very athletic in the tags, minimizing the impact.

. Very good at handling short-hop throws and being able to make the tag.

. Strong at jumping out in front of the plate on throws and in essence being his own cutoff man.

. Excellent pitch framer, but on occasion quickly moves glove on pitches close enough to hold steady.

. Criticized for ball-blocking techniques, yet gives up fewer passed balls and wild pitches than almost any other catcher in the game. His athleticism seems to trump his inexperience at ball-blacking.

. Sometimes tries too hard to make plays. Often inaccurate when he tries to rush throws after bending down and twisting to field the ball.

. A good enough catcher that he will almost certainly win Gold Gloves -- possibly even a couple of years before Yadier Molina retires.


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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- He's a stats geek who has very questionable knowledge about the game of baseball outside of the numbers.

Rog -- I believe you are stereotyping him. Put him in a room with us, and I believe he would hold his own.

Even the geeky guys on the show know the game.

Let me ask you this: It takes scores of hours to learn the analytical side of baseball. Why would a guy spend all that time on something he doesn't love?

The show is DESIGNED to focus on the analytical side of the game. Naturally the stats guys are going to focus on the statistical side. That's their advanced training and their job.

There are ex-players on the show, and they admit they are learning more and more about the analytical side all the time -- and seemingly liking it. I truly think there is some very misinformed stereotyping going on here.

By the way, I thought Kenny made a very nice point about the AL MVP voting. It was Mike Trout that does all the little things -- great base runner and defender -- that old-school baseball observers say they value, yet they awarded the MVP to big ball player Miguel Cabrera in great part because of his Triple Crown NUMBERS.

Meanwhile, the stats guys pointed out how many net steals and extra bases Trout had, as well as the runs his defense saved.

I don't mean to stereotype either, but in general, I think if we had time to pick the brains of most of these stats guys, we would find they know as much about the traditional side of baseball as we do (with the possible exception of Boly), and that in addition they see a whole different side of the game we are just beginning to understand.

Let me ask this question: Do you think Chris Lincecum knows much about the traditional and technical side of baseball? If all I know is stats, just how is it that he and I spent three straight hours talking about the game -- and very rarely mentioning even the most basic of stats?

How about my analysis of Buster's defense? Notice how little stats were involved, and how when they were, they were very basic stats -- not the more analytical ones?

Ask me -- or most analytical baseball types -- to expound on the basic side of baseball, and see if they or I know anything. In most cases, they know MORE than you and I about basic baseball.

I mean, these guys on Clubhouse Confidential discuss things with former major leaguers, and the former players seem to respect them. My guess is that they have a lot more discussions off the air.

Why is it that you don't think statistical types can walk and chew gum at the same time?

Remember the player when we were young that didn't have much talent but could play because he did the little things, seemingly intuitively? Again, I'm stereotyping, but that type of player is more likely to become analytical about the game.

And when he played with us, he know MORE about the traditional side of the game than we did. Did he suddenly forget it all when he started studying advanced stats and analysis?

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[Islandboagie]

Boly- To NOT even factor in the pitchers "hold the runner" ability, is simply short sighted, and not very smart.

Rog -- Believe me, Brian Kenny -- who hosts the show "Clubhouse Confidential" on the MLB Network -- knows about all that. Let's not forget that he is limited by time constraints and is forced to summarize many things both in the interest of time and in some cases because he can't get too deeply into things because he would lose his audiences.

Boagie- Rog, MLB Network and Brian Kenny have been talking about the AL and NL MVP voting since the season ended, and I haven't heard Brian Kenny mention the fact that Giants pitchers are bad at holding runners on ONCE that WHOLE time! His job is to look beyond those basic numbers and give us the real value of a player, isn't it?? I understand you enjoy listening to him, but if you're saying he didn't misinterpret Posey's defense on his show then I think this is one of those instances where someone can't admit when they're wrong.

Brian Kenny portrayed Posey as an average to below average defender to prove his point that Braun was overall the better player and should win MVP. Either he did it on purpose to mislead his viewers so he could prove his point which makes him and his show a joke, OR he just didn't know about the Giants pitchers being bad at holding runners on.

[sharksrog]

Boagie- Rog, MLB Network and Brian Kenny have been talking about the AL and NL MVP voting since the season ended, and I haven't heard Brian Kenny mention the fact that Giants pitchers are bad at holding runners on ONCE that WHOLE time! His job is to look beyond those basic numbers and give us the real value of a player, isn't it??

Rog -- Maybe he doesn't know. Certainly we have been disappointed in many national announcers' not knowing much about a particular individual team. Given that they have 30 to follow, that's somewhat understandable, but I find it disappointing nonetheless.

Boagie -- I understand you enjoy listening to him, but if you're saying he didn't misinterpret Posey's defense on his show then I think this is one of those instances where someone can't admit when they're wrong.

Rog -- Brian did say Posey threw out an above-average percentage of runners. But I will admit that there are so many people on the show that I can't really remember who said what.

Boagie -- Brian Kenny portrayed Posey as an average to below average defender to prove his point that Braun was overall the better player and should win MVP.

Rog -- I didn't get that idea, but maybe I just missed it. What I do remember is that Kenny stated that Braun was the more-rounded player (which i s true) because of Posey's lack of speed.

Boagie -- Either he did it on purpose to mislead his viewers so he could prove his point which makes him and his show a joke, OR he just didn't know about the Giants pitchers being bad at holding runners on.

Rog -- Or he didn't mention it, since he was showing how much better Molina was defensively (which I think we all agree on -- and not because Buster is at all bad). As I have mentioned, there is only so much time available, so not every fine point will necessarily be mentioned.

Kenny was showing the contrast between Posey and Molina in that more runners stole on Buster than any other catcher and fewer runners tried Molina than any other backstop. He didn't specifically mention that Yadier has thrown out runners over his entire career (although he did mention Yadier's 48% caught stealing rate this season) and perhaps that the Cardinals' staff was good at holding runners on, any more than he talked about the Giants' pitchers.

If he didn't know about the inability of the Giants' pitchers to hold runners on, it would surprise me. But again, far too many national announcers DON't know such details.

I'll have to pay closer attention to who says what on the show. I just think it brings a pretty good perspective and goes out of its way to present all sides of an issue. I learn more from it than just about any other baseball show I see.


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[sharksrog]

I am watching this week's "The Best of Clubhouse Confidential."

Brian Kenny did indeed say that Braun was the only player who was above-average in each department. He mentioned that Buster and Yadier "ran like catchers."

Kenny showed how Braun's hitting numbers were overall better than Buster's, but stated that Buster's playing in a much tougher hitting park evened that out.

As for Buster's throwingm, stop and think. Kenny pointed out that Buster's caught stealing percentage was just above average and that more runners stole on him than any other catcher.

If a catcher throws runners out well yet has more steal attempts against him than any other catcher, doesn't that indirectly state that the pitchers aren't doing THEIR job in that department?

Indirectly, Kenny DID mention the pitchers' role in the high number of stolen bases against Buster.

As I mentioned at the time, the one area where I felt Kenny went far wrong in the Braun/Buster debate was in not giving Buster a big advantage because he played a premium position.

Is it more important how a catcher runs compared to an outfielder, or which player plays the premium position?

I think you made some good points here, but I also think you're upset because Kenny didn't choose Buster. I was a bit surprised, but it didn't bother me, since I knew WHY Buster was better and had mentioned here that Buster would run away with the voting.

I think sometimes posters here are picky, picky, picky. I try to look at both sides of a situation. I rarely criticize players or managers, yet when I do so, I often bring up points no one else has seemingly thought about.

As an example, one poster in particular (whom I think has a bias against the young Giants position players not named Belt) was all over Hector Sanchez for botching that play at the plate.

No question Hector could have and truly should have done better. But his mistake was in trying to rush the play.

No one else pointed out that there were three mistakes made on the play -- with Angel Pagan (who IIRC had made a good play to start the progression) making a low throw, which contributed to Brandon Crawford's short hop throw. Crawford later said that if he were doing it all over again, he would try to throw the ball through Sanchez's chest.

Duh!

As is so often the case, when something goes wrong, there is more than one party who could have done something slightly differently and changed the outcome.

By the way, one of the most exciting plays in baseball is the relay throw home. I analyzed a play where they were unsuccessful, but overall they're pretty darn good at the relay throw -- and even that misplayed play had a chance and was very exciting.

[Islandboagie]

As for Buster's throwingm, stop and think. Kenny pointed out that Buster's caught stealing percentage was just above average and that more runners stole on him than any other catcher.

If a catcher throws runners out well yet has more steal attempts against him than any other catcher, doesn't that indirectly state that the pitchers aren't doing THEIR job in that department?

Indirectly, Kenny DID mention the pitchers' role in the high number of stolen bases against Buster.

Boagie- In the end I felt he portrayed Braun and Molina as great defenders and Posey as about average. I think to clearly judge the whole situation he could have said that the Giants pitchers were poor at holding runners on. I also remember early on this season that Crawford had trouble around the bag at catching a few throws from Posey, that also figured into Posey's 30% success at throwing out runners. Buster also was coming off a major injury and took a little time to really get comfortable behind the plate, which imo resulted in those high throws early in the season.

If you just take the stats on what Posey did I don't think you're getting the true perspective on what kind of player Posey is behind the plate.

To me, Buster's defense is a positive. Kenny IMO portrayed Posey as an average defender on his show. And you're also right that Kenny made a mistake by not figuring in the difficulty of the positions. Overall Kenny didn't do his job at best representing who the MVP candidates were.

[sharksrog]

Boagie- In the end I felt he portrayed Braun and Molina as great defenders and Posey as about average. I think to clearly judge the whole situation he could have said that the Giants pitchers were poor at holding runners on. I also remember early on this season that Crawford had trouble around the bag at catching a few throws from Posey, that also figured into Posey's 30% success at throwing out runners. Buster also was coming off a major injury and took a little time to really get comfortable behind the plate, which imo resulted in those high throws early in the season.

Rog -- You make some good points here, and to some extent I think it comes down to what one thinks Kenny meant and what he may have implied.

Here is what was written in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

On the MLB Network's "Clubhouse Confidential" show Wednesday, host Brian Kenny analyzed the MVP race and said he would choose Braun over Posey in a close decision. He credited Braun's base running as well as his defense - he was a Gold Glove finalist - in addition to his offensive numbers in making that call.

"If I had to actually vote, I'd go with the guy who was the best power hitter, who also is a plus base-runner and a plus defender," said Kenny.

"If I'm running a team and I could have just one of these seasons, I would take the season produced by Ryan Braun. It's close, but Ryan Braun is my MVP."

Clearly Kenny said Braun was a better power hitter than Buster, and he said that Ryan was a plus base-runner and fielder. He strongly implied that Braun held a clear edge in base-running over Buster when he said that both Buster and Yadier Molina "run like catchers." He said enough about Yadier's defense that one knew he thought Yadier was a better defender than Braun (or Buster, for that matter), but he didn't specifically say Braun was the better defender than Buster.

He pointed to good defensive metrics for Braun (who played one of the easiest defensive positions on the field -- my comment, not Brian's) and said that Buster's caught stealing percentage was just above average.

In the context of what Kenny said (He was showing that Molina was a better catcher than Buster), I wouldn't have expected him to take the time to point out Buster's tough staff for catching base stealers, although he certainly could have taken the time to do so.

On the show, Kenny showed that park effects brought Buster's hitting equal to Braun's based on weighted runs created.

McCutchen's defense was "surprisingly" shown to be so-so at best, and the video of Andrew defensively showed misplays. The defensive video of Braun showed him making four very good catches; Buster's defensive videos showed him throwing out three runners; Yadier's video showed him throwing out four runners.

I would say that last trio was shown to be positive defensively, while McCutchen's surprising deficiencies in center field were emphasized.

Kenny said he would take Braun, since he was the only one of the four players who was positive in all areas (hitting, power hitting, base running and fielding). The only area they showed Buster as being deficient in was base running, where he and Molina were far behind McCutchen and Braun. Defensively, they showed his good plays.

By the way, 30% caught stealing is a good percentage, one that was shown as a graphic on the show.

On a related note, what changes or additions would you like to make to my defensive scouting report on Buster? Meanwhile, in e-mails, I'm DEFENDING Buster's defense to Don.




If you just take the stats on what Posey did I don't think you're getting the true perspective on what kind of player Posey is behind the plate.

To me, Buster's defense is a positive. Kenny IMO portrayed Posey as an average defender on his show. And you're also right that Kenny made a mistake by not figuring in the difficulty of the positions. Overall Kenny didn't do his job at best representing who the MVP candidates were.


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[Islandboagie]

Rog -- You make some good points here, and to some extent I think it comes down to what one thinks Kenny meant and what he may have implied.

Boagie- I think it comes down to the fact that he picked Braun as his MVP, when clearly Buster was the MVP. His only viable argument? Braun is faster.

I can't think of a viable reason to say an outfielder on a team that didn't make the playoffs is more valuable than a catcher who led his team (in ever facet) to the post season.

Let's talk about defense for a minute. Brian Kenny's only compliment to Posey's defense that he threw out 30% of runners trying to steal, that's a little bit above average as Kenny stated, what we didn't hear from Kenny is the fact that Buster still threw out the most runners in baseball. As we've made clear he failed to mention the fact that the Giants pitchers are not good at holding runners on. He also failed to mention that Posey only allowed 2 passed balls, the fewest in MLB. Kenny also forgot to mention to his viewers that Buster only allowed 26 wild pitches..only one other catcher in baseball allowed fewer. No mention of any of this.

Brian Kenny has stated time and time again that hrs, rbis, and avg are narrow minded stats that don't tell the whole story, but yet his best argument for Braun is that he's got more power and speed. I agree Braun has more speed, but if the MVP award relied heavily on speed no catcher would ever win the MVP. I agree Braun likely has more power, but based on OPS+ Posey is the better hitter. Based on WAR Posey is the better player.

Brian Kenny claims that on his show they dig deep into statisical analysis, In this instance I believe Kenny forgot to bring his shovel.

[sharksrog]

Boagie- I think it comes down to the fact that he picked Braun as his MVP, when clearly Buster was the MVP. His only viable argument? Braun is faster.

Boagie -- I can't think of a viable reason to say an outfielder on a team that didn't make the playoffs is more valuable than a catcher who led his team (in ever facet) to the post season.

Rog -- I like Kenny's argument that a player's valuable shouldn't be based on the caliber of his teammates. Kind of like ignoring how teammates are to a pitcher's won-loss record.

Rog -- One thing we haven't talked about is the different of most valuable. Clubhouse Confidential says it is the best player. I'm not sure I agree totally, but I definitely think they're on the right track.

Boagire -- Let's talk about defense for a minute. Brian Kenny's only compliment to Posey's defense that he threw out 30% of runners trying to steal, that's a little bit above average as Kenny stated, what we didn't hear from Kenny is the fact that Buster still threw out the most runners in baseball. As we've made clear he failed to mention the fact that the Giants pitchers are not good at holding runners on. He also failed to mention that Posey only allowed 2 passed balls, the fewest in MLB. Kenny also forgot to mention to his viewers that Buster only allowed 26 wild pitches..only one other catcher in baseball allowed fewer. No mention of any of this.

Rog -- That's why Kenny has me on this board.

Boagie -- Brian Kenny has stated time and time again that hrs, rbis, and avg are narrow minded stats that don't tell the whole story, but yet his best argument for Braun is that he's got more power and speed. I agree Braun has more speed, but if the MVP award relied heavily on speed no catcher would ever win the MVP. I agree Braun likely has more power, but based on OPS+ Posey is the better hitter. Based on WAR Posey is the better player.

Rog -- Kenny did say it was very close. My personal feeling is that Brian forgot about catching being a premium position. I've heard him talk about it, so it's not as if he doesn't relealize it exists. I believe that was the mistake he made. The rest of it is somewhat subjective -- po-tay-to, to-mah-to.

Heck, even the premium nature of a position is subjective, although I think anyone who doesn't recognize it isn't being fully logical.

Boagie -- Brian Kenny claims that on his show they dig deep into statisical analysis, In this instance I believe Kenny forgot to bring his shovel.

Rog -- That's one of the best lines in the history of this board, Boagie! Nicely done.

By the way, would you agree that Kenny's biggest mistake was in not giving Buster credit for playing a premium position? Take that away, and it's pretty darn close. Include it, and it justifies the mini-landslide for Buster.

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[Islandboagie]

Rog- By the way, would you agree that Kenny's biggest mistake was in not giving Buster credit for playing a premium position? Take that away, and it's pretty darn close. Include it, and it justifies the mini-landslide for Buster.


Boagie- No question. I'd likely give it to Braun if Posey was a first baseman.

But how an analyst doesn't consider a premium position part of the equation still blows my mind. I'm sure there are plenty of knowledgable stats geeks out there, but I think Brian Kenny has proven that he doesn't quite understand the game of baseball yet.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- But how an analyst doesn't consider a premium position part of the equation still blows my mind. I'm sure there are plenty of knowledgable stats geeks out there, but I think Brian Kenny has proven that he doesn't quite understand the game of baseball yet.

Rog -- You make a good point here, although we don't know that Kenny didn't consider the Giants pitchers' poor ability to hold runners -- only that he didn't mention it on a show in a segment that included four different players.

Even if Kenny didn't consider it, I don't think it was the reason he chose Braun over Buster as his MVP. I do think his seemingly ignoring -- or at least not giving nearly enough credit to -- Buster's playing perhaps THE premium position on the diamond did have quite an effect on his choice.

I don't think Kenny knows as much about analytics as many of the "expert" guests he has, but I do think he has a pretty good understanding. I do learn from him most days.

I see Brian's show as having two primary values:

. Most importantly, it helps us to better evaluate baseball players. He brings up good points -- and quantifies them.

He doesn't say dumb stuff like "Ryan Braun drove in more runs than Buster Posey, so he was the better hitter." He realized RBI's are a team-dependent stat.

As an aside, Buster was better at driving RUNNERS in; Braun was much better at driving HIMSELF in, bashing 17 more homers.

. A secondary value Kenny's show has is that it further advances the cause of analytics. Analytics are used in most front offices now, and fans are becoming a little more sophisticated in understanding their importance.

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[Islandboagie]

Rog- I don't think Kenny knows as much about analytics as many of the "expert" guests he has, but I do think he has a pretty good understanding. I do learn from him most days.

Boagie- You do realize he could just be reading from a teleprompter and not really buy into anything he's saying.


Rog- I see Brian's show as having two primary values:

. Most importantly, it helps us to better evaluate baseball players. He brings up good points -- and quantifies them.

Boagie- One thing it certainly has done is make stats geeks nation wide say quantify alot more.


Rog- He doesn't say dumb stuff like "Ryan Braun drove in more runs than Buster Posey, so he was the better hitter." He realized RBI's are a team-dependent stat.

Boagie- I don't think that's necessarily a dumb thing to say. RBIs do rely on people getting on base ahead of you, but some players just have the ability to drive in runs better than others.
I've always made this claim with Buster when people on this board say he should be batting 2nd, 3rd or 5th, or even 6th. For instance Buster was tied for the league lead in sacrifice flies with 9, Braun had 5. Which means Buster was in more situations where he was just trying to put the ball in play to get his team a much needed run. I think it's safe to say Buster was in more high pressure situations than Braun was. The success of situational hitting does matter when you're considering the big picture. This is what makes Buster a good cleanup hitter.

This also wasn't talked about on Brian Kenny's show because it would be a negative towards his argument that Braun should be MVP over Posey. But, I believe this figures heavily in the voting because the writers usually vote for someone from a team that made the post-season.


Rog- A secondary value Kenny's show has is that it further advances the cause of analytics. Analytics are used in most front offices now, and fans are becoming a little more sophisticated in understanding their importance.

Boagie- You have a good point on educating the fans on other stats. Since I've become a fan ops and obp have expanded my view of the game. While average and homeruns and rbis aren't the best judge of stats, why do we always consider the best players to be among the leaders of those basic stats. It's not like 25 years ago we wouldn't have considered Mike Trout to be a great player because we didn't know his WAR. They compare Trout to the likes of Rickey Henderson, and Rickey Henderson was considered one of the best players back then.

I think it has made the fans open their eyes a little more about on base percentage because that stat was a stat that didn't always reflect average and power numbers. OPS was a very good stat to put together, it's valuable in researching the best hitters in the game, but as far as opening up this world of players we didn't know about..I just don't think it did that.

OPS is really the only number that has been applied to the mainstream fan's way of interpreting players. OPS is a solid stat in my opinion. Other than that, it's just a bunch of smoke and mirrors for stat geeks to win an argument.

WAR is likely the most flawed, useless number in the history of sports.

For example...Posey's WAR is 7.2.

If Posey went down with an injury during spring training, his replacement would have been Eli Whiteside. According to Posey's WAR we still would have made the playoffs with Eli Whiteside starting. Do you believe without Posey we make the post-season?

Oddly enough the Giants did win 8 more games, so the 7.2 would appear to be somewhat accurate as far as wins and loses. But I think Posey figured into far more victories this year than 7 or 8 more than Eli Whiteside would have. Posey is also better at calling games than Eli is, which also would figure into a number of wins.

Posey's WAW (wins above Whiteside) would be more like 15-20. That's just a guess, but I think it's more accurate than 7.2.

Far too many variables to make WAR a useful stat for anyone to take seriously. War doesn't expand anyones mind, if anything it clouds the mind.

[sharksrog]

Rog- I don't think Kenny knows as much about analytics as many of the "expert" guests he has, but I do think he has a pretty good understanding. I do learn from him most days.

Boagie- You do realize he could just be reading from a teleprompter and not really buy into anything he's saying.

Rog -- I was just thinking that yesterday. Brian does express opinions -- such as picking Ryan Braun over Buster -- but no question he is reading most of the show, and we don't know if he does his own writing or not.

My guess would be that he has some editorial input, but that others write most of what he reads.


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[sharksrog]

Boagie- One thing it certainly has done is make stats geeks nation wide say quantify alot more.

Rog -- Can you quantify that?


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[klaiggeb]

Boagie -- But how an analyst doesn't consider a premium position part of the equation still blows my mind. I'm sure there are plenty of knowledgable stats geeks out there, but I think Brian Kenny has proven that he doesn't quite understand the game of baseball yet.

Rog -- You make a good point here, although we don't know that Kenny didn't consider the Giants pitchers' poor ability to hold runners -- only that he didn't mention it on a show in a segment that included four different players.


---boly says---

But Rog, he flat out SAID that Buster wasn't a good defensive catcher. By making that statement, I can only conclude one of two things:

1- He never saw Buster play and doesn't know any better.
2- He ONLY looked at the numbers... nothing more.

Based upon his statement, I have to go with #2.

I have listened to, and heard too many 'fans' and 'experts' make similar statements when they've ONLY used the numbers, and don't look further. I believe that is the case here.

Why? Because HAD he actually seen the Giant's pitchers INability to hold runners on, had he actually WATCHED Buster play more than 2 or 3 times, he would have seen what we've seen.

1-A kid that can flat out throw, and throw accurately.
2-A kid that sometimes is remisce in his technique in blocking balls.
3-A kid with a quick, quick release, and great footwork.

boly

[sharksrog]

Boagie- I don't think that's necessarily a dumb thing to say. RBIs do rely on people getting on base ahead of you, but some players just have the ability to drive in runs better than others.

Rog -- For the most part, the better hitters are better at driving in runs. There are a few hitters who show better hitting in the clutch, but not many.


Boagie -- I've always made this claim with Buster when people on this board say he should be batting 2nd, 3rd or 5th, or even 6th.

Rog -- I don't mean to pick on Don, and am trying to get him to come back, but he actually said Buster should be hitting SEVENTH against right-handed pitchers.

Boagie -- For instance Buster was tied for the league lead in sacrifice flies with 9, Braun had 5. Which means Buster was in more situations where he was just trying to put the ball in play to get his team a much needed run.

Rog -- You made a very salient comment here, Boagie. Each player hit a sacrifice fly once in every 7 opportunities, so they were about equal when it came to sacrifice flies. Overall though, Buster hit over .500 with a runner on third with fewer than two outs, while Braun hit only .217.

Boagie -- I think it's safe to say Buster was in more high pressure situations than Braun was.

Rog -- I'm not so sure about this one. The Giants ran away with the NL West pretty early, cutting down on true pressure at bats for Buster.

And in the traditional measures, Buster came to bat 86 times in late and close situations; Braun, 98. Buster hit in games within one run 311 times; Braun, 374. Buster hit in high leverge situations 125 times; Braun, 118. Buster batted 185 times with RISP; Braun, 175. If anything, Braun appears to have hit with a little more pressure.

Boagie -- The success of situational hitting does matter when you're considering the big picture. This is what makes Buster a good cleanup hitter.

Rog -- Buster was a good cleanup hitter this past season primarily because he was a devastating hitter with a runner on third base and fewer than two outs. In 44 at bats and 9 sacrifice flies, he drove home 45 runners (plus himself three times). Nearly half of Buster's 103 RBI's came in 53 plate appearances with a runner on third and fewer than two outs.

I hadn't noticied that until now, but it's an extremely impressive statistic. Braun drove in only 20 of his RBI's in the same situation.

One could say that Buster was put in the easiest of RBI situations about twice as often as Braun, but he would also have to say Buster made the most of those situations.

As I mentioned recently, Buster drove in RUNNERS better than Braun; Braun drove HIMSELF in better than Buster.


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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- It's not like 25 years ago we wouldn't have considered Mike Trout to be a great player because we didn't know his WAR.

Rog -- You know how much I think one can learn from analytics, but Mike Trout is so good that 25 years ago we would have easily known he was a great player. We wouldn't haven't been able to quantify it as well and thus be in better position to judge HOW much better he might be than other players.

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- For example...Posey's WAR is 7.2.

If Posey went down with an injury during spring training, his replacement would have been Eli Whiteside. According to Posey's WAR we still would have made the playoffs with Eli Whiteside starting. Do you believe without Posey we make the post-season?

Rog -- A couple of things here:

First, Buster's replacement sooner or later would likely have been Hector Sanchez.

Second, if WAR is accurate, it would have been nip and tuck whether the Giants won the NL West.

Would that have been nip and tuck? I really don't know. I do know, however, that players often don't make as much of a difference as we think they do.


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[sharksrog]

Boagie --Posey's WAW (wins above Whiteside) would be more like 15-20. That's just a guess, but I think it's more accurate than 7.2.

Rog -- First of all, I LOVE the acronym WAW (Wins Above Whiteside). Just flat-out love it. You've been doing some very nice writing of late, and I've enjoyed it.

As for whether the Giants would won 15 to 20 fewer games with Whiteside than with Buster, I doubt that is the case.

In 2011 the Giants didn't have Buster, yet they won 86 games. As you point out, that's 8 fewer than this year.

I think if we compare the other parts of the 2011 roster with the 2012 roster, we'll see that this year's 24-man roster was at least as good as 2011.

The Giants scored 148 more runs in 2012 than in 2011. That's nearly a run per game more. Certainly some of that was due to Buster, but nowhere near all.

I think there's a decent chance the Giants would have won the NL West even without Buster.


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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- Far too many variables to make WAR a useful stat for anyone to take seriously. War doesn't expand anyones mind, if anything it clouds the mind.

Rog -- For me, it's just one more way to evaluate how a player has done. As you point out, it's an estimate, not a fact.

I am more and more becoming an advocate of Base Average.

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[sharksrog]

But Rog, he flat out SAID that Buster wasn't a good defensive catcher. By making that statement, I can only conclude one of two things:

1- He never saw Buster play and doesn't know any better.
2- He ONLY looked at the numbers... nothing more.

Based upon his statement, I have to go with #2.

I have listened to, and heard too many 'fans' and 'experts' make similar statements when they've ONLY used the numbers, and don't look further. I believe that is the case here.

Rog -- And I would agree with you. Except Kenny never said Buster's defense was bad. Here is what he DID say with regard to the top four MVP candidates:

. Braun was the top power hitter, although his batting advantage was wiped out by his hitting in an easier park than Buster.

. Braun and McCutcheon were good runners; Buster and Molina "run like catchers."

. Braun's defensive metrics indicated he was a good fielder.

. Yadier Molina was an exceptional fielder.

. Surprisingly, McCutchen's numbers indicated he wasn't as good a fielder as we would think.

. Buster threw out "just more than average" base runners.

. More runners stole on Buster than any other catcher, and fewer runners stole on Yadier than any other catcher.

. He would have voted for Braun because Ryan was the only player who was above average in all four categories (hitting, power, defense and running).

. Buster, Yadier and Ryan were all shown in a positive light with highlights of their fielding. Only McCutchen was shown in a negative light.

In other words, Kenny didn't say Buster was a poor defensive catcher.

Boly -- Why? Because HAD he actually seen the Giant's pitchers INability to hold runners on, had he actually WATCHED Buster play more than 2 or 3 times, he would have seen what we've seen.

Rog -- And he may well have, although no doubt we have seen more of Buster than he has, since he covers all 30 teams.

Boagiie -- 1-A kid that can flat out throw, and throw accurately.

Rog -- Early in the season Buster wasn't overly accurate. By the end of the season, he was.

Boly -- 2-A kid that sometimes is remisce in his technique in blocking balls.

Rog -- And yet allows fewer balls to get by him than almost any other catcher. Both his hands and his athleticism have been mentioned here in that regard.

Boly -- 3-A kid with a quick, quick release, and great footwork.

Rog -- Maybe it's because we saw blink-quick Chris Stewart in 2011, but I don't see Buster's release as exceptionally quick. I think he has above-average quickness with his release, but that the quality of his throwning stems more from his strong and accurate arm.

To summarize this though, Boly, Kenny didn't say Buster was a bad defender. I have watched the show twice -- once AFTER we began writing about this stuff.


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[donk]

you got me back with your lame quote of what I said...yes, I said Posey should hit 7th...but that was after he went over 100 plate appearance that was worse than Burriss at his prime...I also thought he was not the catcher you seem to think he was/is...he has improved some bit he still jumps out of the way on balls in the dirt...now, not always...and yes he has been good/lucky at catching some of these pitches...but I wou;dn't like to depend on this luck for ever....he still calls for too many high pitches....something Johnny Bench said that some catchers do to avoid too many PB's or WP's....it is almost automatic for Posey to call for the high fastball when ther count is 0-2...which is )K if you are riding the elevator on previous pitches...however, the Giants pitchers usually throw the pitch too high and it becomes a wasted pitch...cutter, low and inside is usually more effective....this is something that Brenly and some other TV guys have commented on...after I brought it up....the Fielding Bible in the 2013 James book ranks Posey the 5th best catcher as rated by 10 guys/groups...but the ratings are really scattered.....the rated only their best 10....and Posey was rated 7,9, unrated, 6, unrated, 5, 4, 10, unrated, and 3...
In the other category..."Runs Saved"...Posey didn't make the first 9 best...3 were tied for 10th, but their names were not listed.....Mauer was one of the 5 worst....yes, Rog, he listed toop ten...so we were both wrong...I still think Tim and Zito do not want to pitch to Posey...and in a play off game, Vogey shook off the first pitch of the game 4 times...and the pitchers do shake him off a bunch......the other thing he does is set up too wide when he wants an outside pitch...he catches the ball without moving his glove...be he rarely gets the call on close pitches....if Sabean doesn't sign some outfielders it could be time for Belt to go to the outfield and Posey to first...

[sharksrog]

Don -- you got me back with your lame quote of what I said...yes, I said Posey should hit 7th...but that was after he went over 100 plate appearance that was worse than Burriss at his prime...

Rog -- First and foremost of all, welcome back. That gives me one more thing to be thankful for tomorrow.

But Buster has NEVER had a 100 plate appearance period when he was worse than Manny Burriss at his best. IIRC you're talking about their respective power, and the comparison over that period of time was a valid one.

The problem is that when recommending something, one benefits from having a little vision. That period of non-power came over the last part of Buster's 2011 season. Think he bounced back at all this past season?

The point I'm making is that you were wrong, wrong, wrong. You showed no vision and greatlyt overrated a small sample.

Don -- I also thought he was not the catcher you seem to think he was/is...he has improved some bit he still jumps out of the way on balls in the dirt...now, not always...and yes he has been good/lucky at catching some of these pitches...but I wou;dn't like to depend on this luck for ever....he still calls for too many high pitches....something Johnny Bench said that some catchers do to avoid too many PB's or WP's....

Rog -- Buster caught Tim Lincecum a lot this past season, yet he was among the best in the majors in passed balls and wild pitches allowed. Sure, he called for many high fastballs in 0-2 situations, but that was to set up low pitches -- often in the dirt. Your point about flaws in Buster's catching pitces in the dirt was a good one. But once again, you lacked the vision to see how Buster's athleticism and hands could overcome the technical flaw.

Don -- it is almost automatic for Posey to call for the high fastball when ther count is 0-2...which is )K if you are riding the elevator on previous pitches...however, the Giants pitchers usually throw the pitch too high and it becomes a wasted pitch...cutter, low and inside is usually more effective....this is something that Brenly and some other TV guys have commented on...after I brought it up....the Fielding Bible in the 2013 James book ranks Posey the 5th best catcher as rated by 10 guys/groups...but the ratings are really scattered.....the rated only their best 10....and Posey was rated 7,9, unrated, 6, unrated, 5, 4, 10, unrated, and 3...

Rog -- Being rated #5 out of 30 catchers is pretty good. It points out that the rest of us had Buster's defense pegged better than you did.

Don -- In the other category..."Runs Saved"...Posey didn't make the first 9 best...3 were tied for 10th, but their names were not listed.....Mauer was one of the 5 worst....

Rog -- We have already discussed here how difficult it is to evaluate defense statistically. The metrics used often come up with very different results among each other. I understand what you're saying here, but clearly the "experts" that evaluated defense were able to see beyond the mere stats when they ranked him 5th overall.

Don -- yes, Rog, he listed toop ten...so we were both wrong...

Rog -- I was right in that I was speaking of The Fielding Bible, in which John Dewan does list both the top 5 and the bottom five. You seem to believe he was ranking the fielders in the order they were presented in his book. I wish he HAD done so, but he didn't.

Don -- I still think Tim and Zito do not want to pitch to Posey...

Rog -- Certainly they have both indicated they would rather pitch to Hector Sanchez.

Don -- and in a play off game, Vogey shook off the first pitch of the game 4 times...and the pitchers do shake him off a bunch......

Rog -- He isn't alone in that regard. Pitchers sometimes have it in their mind to throw a particular pitch, which can be far different from what the catcher would call.

Don -- the other thing he does is set up too wide when he wants an outside pitch...he catches the ball without moving his glove...be he rarely gets the call on close pitches....

Rog -- Catchers sometimes do set up outside the zone in order to try to get the umpire to stretch his zone. I haven't really noticed it from Buster any more than most other catchers -- and perhaps less.

Don -- if Sabean doesn't sign some outfielders it could be time for Belt to go to the outfield and Posey to first...

Rog -- I'm not going to debate whether you are right or wrong, since it just isn't going to happen,.

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