Aoki and Samardzija

[Rog]

Nori Aoki has signed a one-year contract with the Seattle Mariners, and Jeff Samardzija is said to have been offered $100 million.  So Aoki is gone, and I would say Samardzija is pretty much off the table for the Giants.

$100 million for Samardzija?  Really?  That one could pay off, but it seems like a HUGE gamble.  Jeff is 37-55 as a starter, with a career 4.14 ERA.  Last season he went 11-13 with a 4.96 earned run average.

$100 million?  Really?  I'd rather have Mike Leake, and we can only hope that he doesn't go that high.  As disappointing as it would seem at this time, I'm wondering if the Giants would be better off going with shorter-term starters and putting their long-term money into Jason Heyward.  Heyward is just 26 and armed with what is said to be a new batting stroke, hit .284, .326, .312, .319 and .290 in May through September.

For those who like speed and defense (and who doesn't?), Jason has stolen 43 bases in 50 attempts over the past two seasons, and is considered by Baseball-Reference to have been worth 10 wins in the outfield over his six-year career.  By comparison, Hunter Pence is said to have cost five wins in his nine seasons.  Gregor Blanco has been even.  Heyward is one of the best fielders in the game, regardless of position.  As a speedy left-handed player, he could play closer to the line in AT&T and still do a good job of cutting off triples alley.

Jason isn't a huge power hitter (only 97 home runs in his six seasons.  In part that's because he's a ground ball hitter, which should play well at AT&T.  In fact, it's not hard to imagine Jason's benefiting from a lot of Triples Alley hits, much as Angel Pagan did in his early Giants days.  Jason has struck out only a little over once every seven at bats in his career, and his on-base percentage is .357 despite a .280 average.  Last season he went out of the strike zone only once every four times.

He also goes the opposite way once every four times he hits the ball, so he may not be a candidate for the overshift.  Despite being a ground ball hitter, Jason has hit into only 47 double plays in his six seasons.

It may take a 10-year contract to land him, but Jason Heyward appears to be a player build for AT&T Park.  I'd be willing to pay a LOT of money for him, and I think I would make him my #1 target -- even over Greinke or Cueto.

I'd like to think that if the Giants could get by with Heston/Blackburn as Boagie suggested, they might actually be able to afford BOTH Heyward and Cueto.  If that were to happen, I would be one very happy camper.  VERY happy.

I realize prioritizing Heyward over a top pitcher is a bit of heresy here.  But put Jason into the 2nd or 3rd spot in the order, and look what the Giants would have.  The object is to outscore the opponents, and Jason could provide runs at the plate and on the bases, all while preventing them in the field.  If the Giants think he is capable of playing center field (and he's played well there in his brief opportunities), he's golden to me. 

I didn't really look all that closely at Heyward before today, but once I did, I became a believer.  Not a great average hitter or a hitter with great power, but he gets on base, knows what to do once he gets there, and likely would prevent more runs than any other right fielder could in AT&T Park.  Might even be able to play a decent center field.

To get an idea of what this guy might mean, Fan Graphs pegs his value over his six seasons at $198 million -- and he's just entering his prime.  I have heard nothing connecting the Giants with Heyward, but I truly hope they look that direction, and look closely.  The closer they look, the more I think they'll like.

How about a Giants lineup with Heyward batting right in front of Posey and Pence batting right behind Buster.  Then maybe Belt, Duffy and Crawford?  Wow!

The first article I just looked up about Jason came from Sports Illustrated and was entitled "... Why Jason Heyward is a $300 million man."  Scary that he's even being talked about at that amount of money, but after the past hour, I can see why.

Give me Heyward and Cueto, and just let me die and go to heaven!

[klaiggeb]

Rog, Heyward over pitching isn't HERESY on the board, it is, IMHO, downright foolish.

We don't need another bat.

We need starters who keep us in the game;

Starters who don't give up runs so early in the game that we're constantly playing catch up.


Wanting SP is not heresy, it's smart.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Agree completely, Boly. Pitching is where our focus should be. Not even just starters, I'd put bringing in a bullpen piece above left field as well. Rog does make a good point though, scoring more runs than the other team is the difference between winning and losing. But as we saw last season, a good offense only does so much.

Our two most crucial issues last season were the starting pitching and an overworked bullpen. More offense will help that a little bit, but it won't make the pitching or bullpen better. But a good starting staff will make the bullpen better.

[sfgdood]

As I said on another thread and I think Boly was referring to this specifically...no other position on the roster means squat if we don't get the rotation shored up first and the options are dropping like flies. We could make the playoffs with the bullpen we have IF we get the starting pitching...but we most likely won't be in the postseason if we don't get some major arms for the rotation. That is why the focus must remain ONLY on starting pitching until that is accomplished.

[Rog]

Rog, Heyward over pitching isn't HERESY on the board, it is, IMHO, downright foolish.

We don't need another bat.


Rog -- Just as teams almost always need more pitching, just about every team ever needs another bat.

The object of the game is to outscore your opponent. Whether you do it 3-2 or 6-5 really isn't important, is it?

According to Fan Graphs, Jason Heyward has been a 28-win player over his six-year career. David Price has been a 31-win player over that period. Zack Greinke has been a 27-win player. Cueto -- 20 wins. Zimmermann -- 18 wins.

Basically, Heyward has been about as big a winner as Price and Greinke, and a bigger winner than Cueto or Zimmermann. Greinke is 32. Price is 30. Both are pretty much beyond the prime years for a pitcher. Doesn't mean they're not still excellent. But it does mean we likely will see a lot of decline over the course of their contracts.

Heyward is 26 and very early in his prime years. If Heyward has been close to being as big a winner as Price or Greinke over the past six seasons, why would the Giants want to sign either of the other guys, who are likely entering their decline periods, over Heyward, who is entering his prime?

Which player is likely to be the most valuable over the next six or seven years? Seven years from now with 20/20 hindsight, the odds are we'll be saying Heyward.

Yes, the Giants really need a couple of starters. They also need a let's say center fielder. Especially one who can earn them runs with his bat, his eye, his legs and his glove.

Check out Heyward and see what you think. Then check out the starters who were the best a few years ago. See what you think of the fragility of pitchers -- to decline as well as injury.

Seriously, check it out. I hadn't done a good job of it until the past couple of days. Once I did, my mind changed dramatically. See what you come up with when you study the situation closely.



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[rxmeister]

I know what your saying about Heyward, and I agree. You can make the claim that he's the best FA on the market given his age. With these pitchers you pay them that money and you hope they can do what they did before and don't decline too much at the end of the deal. Heyward is one where you expect to him to be even better than he's been and no deal is really long enough where you would expect a decline at the end because of the age. That being said, they need pitching before anything else. Greinke is making his decision in the next day or two and the Giants have backed up the truck filled with cash for him. I've heard they've outbid the Dodgers on dollars per year but the Dodgers are offering an extra year. I've heard Plan B is Samardzija and Leake, and be afraid Rog, that that 100 million offer is from the Giants!

[Rog]

I knew you would be the voice of reason here, Mark.

You are right that the Giants need pitching more than anything else. On that we all agree.

If we think about it, we also know that signing pitching free agents has been the riskiest game in town. In fact, we might replace riskiest with least successful. When Larry Baer said that successful signings of over-30 pitchers to contracts of five years or longer might be a "null set" (hadn't heard that term in decades), my initial thought was that there must be a few exceptions. And perhaps there are. But I can't think of them.

The sample size isn't very large, but when teams sign these older free agents to long contracts, they are certainly bucking the odds. A year ago I wanted the Giants to sign Max Scherzer, although even there I had this nagging feeling. I was disappointed when they didn't. Now I'm not so sure.

There will be exceptions to this rule. Maybe the top free agent pitchers this season will be exceptions. Maybe last year's crop will be, even James Shields, whose strikeout rate rose even more dramatically last season than his ERA.

Back when I was a teenager though, the word was, "Don't trust anyone over 30." That was clearly an overstatement if not just flat-out wrong, but when it comes to long over-30 pitching contracts, it may be more of an overstatement that actually wrong.

On MLB.com a couple of days ago they pointed to the top pitchers of just a few years ago: Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain (heard of the last pair?) and others. Look how far those guys have fallen.

I thought the case against signing Barry Zito was much clearer than the case against signing the top free agent pitchers of the past two years. But even with last year's guys, one had to worry about the back end of their contracts. Yet at the BEGINNING of the contract, Scherzer pitched well if unevenly. Lester was OK. Shields was a significant disappointment whom the Padres were trying to trade by the All-Star break. How are those guys going to look by the END of their contracts?

I'm not going to go out and shoot myself if the Giants sign Zack Greinke in the next day or two. Part of me will be elated. But I love chocolate when I eat it too, and yet in the long run, I shouldn't eat much of it.

Let's look at Roy Halladay as an example. He started out his 30's with a bang. From age 29 through age 34, he never once finished lower than 5th in the Cy Young voting. He won once, had two seconds, a third and two fifths. He wasn't a guy who relied on his fastball that much, although he was actually throwing harder in 2011 than in 2006. He had a wonderful cutter and curve ball, and in 2011 he added a highly successful split finger.

Yet by 2014 he was out of the game. What had seemed a no-brainer contract was suddenly a disaster.

I liked David Price entering this off-season. He actually put a mile per hour back onto his fastball last season. I wasn't as fond of Greinke, since he was two years older and his great 2015 season wasn't quite as great -- or at least as repeatable -- as it first appeared. But Greinke, much like Halladay, is considered a guy who will be able to pitch well after he loses his fastball, and one can fall a long way off 1.66 and still be an excellent pitcher.

Johnny Cueto throws harder each time through the lineup (at least until the 4th time). one could argue that over the past five seasons, he has been the most consistently good pitcher in the game. Jordan Zimmermann isn't looked at as primarily a fastball pitcher, yet he still threw 93 mph last season.

There is a lot to recommend these guys. There was also a lot to recommend the guys before them, and yet those long-term contracts to older pitchers -- and sometimes younger ones -- just haven't worked out very well.

When the contracts of this year's top four starters are over, there is an above-average chance we will look at them in aggregate and say they weren't very successful overall.

Meanwhile, Jason Heyward can beat you with his bat, his feet and his glove. He's only 26. He'll get a boat load of money, but he just might be worth it. He's got a skill set that is as broad as almost anyone in the game. His strikeout rate last season was lower than Matt Duffy's. His walk rate was nearly twice as high.

He grounds into half as many double plays as Duffy. That he does so despite being a ground ball hitter shows how fast he is.

He has won Gold Gloves in his last three healthy seasons. He has stolen at least 20 bases each of the past two seasons -- and done so at an 86% success rate. He would immediately become the Giants' best base runner and its best defensive outfielder by far. He'd look pretty good batting 2nd or 3rd for the Giants.

I must plead ignorant on this one. Heyward really wasn't that much on my radar until the past three days or so. Shame on me. But I'm willing to learn, and I had a lot to learn about Heyward. I now see him as a less risky signing than the top pitchers -- even though he might wind up with a larger contract than they.

Do the Giants need a starting pitcher more than another outfielder? I think they do. But they already have an ace pitcher even though they don't have a big star outfielder. Hunter Pence is a very good outfielder overall, but he can't come close to Heyward in the field.

Here is a comparison of Heyward and Pence as outfielders:

Routing plays (90%-100%): Pence 99%, Heyward 99%. That's about as close as it gets, but ...

Likely plays (60%-90%): Pence 85%, Heyward 91%. The difference is beginning to show up.

Even plays (40%-60%): Pence 42%, Heyward 83%. Heyward is twice as likely as Pence to make 50/50 plays.

Unlikely plays (10%-40%: Pence 28%, Heyward 61%. Again, Heyward is twice as likely to make the play.

Remote plays (1%-10%): Pence 4%, Heyward 10%. Wow!


The Giants had one of the best defenses in the game last season. With Heyward, they would still be noticeably better. Their base running would step up a notch. Their hitting would be more solid. Their lineup would be longer.

The past six seasons Heyward has helped his teams nearly as much as Price or Greinke. He's entering his prime, while they are leaving theirs.

Heyward and Chen, let's win it again!

Heyward and Leake, let's take a peak.

Heyward and Maeda, we Maeda win it all.

Heyward and Iwazuma, we might win, but it would be hard to make it rhyme.

[Rog]

I've heard Plan B is Samardzija and Leake, and be afraid Rog, that that 100 million offer is from the Giants!


As you know, I'm not a Samardzija fan. Too much risk for my taste. I'm not sure the Giants wouldn't go nine figures for him, but I doubt they are the team that already has. I think their focus is on Greinke right now. They seem to go after their targets one at a time.




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