NOT Gonna happen, but...

[klaiggeb]

IF...IF the Giant's world was perfect, in the off season, we'd end up with Ellsbury.

THAT guy flat out impressed me!

He'd play CF and hit 1 hole.

Pagan (who would bitch and moan and complain), would play LF and bat 6th or 7th.



IF...IF the Giant's world was perfect, by August 31, SOMEONE... some fool, would over pay for Lincecum.


Yeah. LIke any of THAT was going to happen!

Still, we could field an impressive line up with some speed**, and a mix of 18-25 HR power@@@.

Ellsbury CF***
Scutaro 2B
Belt 1B@@@
Posey C@@@
Sandoval 3B@@@
Pence RF@@@
Pagan LF***
Crawford SS

[rxmeister]

I like that lineup, and I wouldn't assume Pagan would bitch and moan, seems like a good guy to me. The Red Sox are a tough team to outbid though.

[sfgdood]

the reason it's not going to happen isnt because the Red Sox will outbid the Giants--although they probably would if the Giants were interested. The Giants wont even try because they just gave Pagan a big 5 year contract and Pagan, like Ellsbury, does not hit HRs. We just saw what a season is like when your corner outfield hits precious few HRs. Ellsbury's OBP is adequate for a leadoff guy...but just barely. If you're going to sign Ellsbury, the best thing to then do is try to trade Pagan's big contract for an OFer with power. Keeping both Ellsbury and Pagan would ensure the Giants don't reach the 100 HR level as a team. The only way that works is if you lead the league in hitting with RISP...we've seen how that's going this year.

~Dood

[allenreed]

How many HRs did our corner outfielders hit in 2012? I get 41. And that's counting all five of Blanco's and Nady's one. Not alot, yet we won the World Series.
Ellsbury would be nice, but he's just more Pagan, really. We need a power hitter.

[sfgdood]

41 is a mountain compared to what we got this year and would get again next year if we had to move Pagan to left, even if we are able to keep Pence.

~Dood

[rxmeister]

Pagan has a four year deal by the way, not five. Probably the best OF sign on the market is Choo of the Reds. I would love him or take a shot at Curtis Granderson.

[klaiggeb]

Pagan has a four year deal by the way, not five. Probably the best OF sign on the market is Choo of the Reds. I would love him or take a shot at Curtis Granderson.

---boly says---

Everyone seems obsessed with us getting a power hitting LF.

I contend we don't need that.

I contend we HAVE 4 guys with 20+ HR power right in the middle of our lineup

Posey-Fatso-Pence-Belt.

I want more speed in the line up.

In my NEVER WILL HAPPEN scenario, and based upon my 4 above, we'd have 3 guys who can run:

Ellsbury-Pagan-Pence

A couple of average to above average guys:

Belt-Crawford-Scutaro

And only two base cloggers:

Posey and Fatso

That is decent balance.

Ah, yes. Foolish dreams...

boly

[allenreed]

Man, I don't know about Granderson. He's hurt alot, can't hit for any kind of average, and costs too much. Definitely a player on the decline. I don't think his Yankee Stadium power would transfer to AT&T. He also strikes out a ton.
I like Choo though. Another guy I realy like is Aoki of the Brewers. Probably not the power we're ideally looking for, but the guy can play, and he's reasonably priced.. I read somewhere that the Brewers were looking to move him. I can't for the life of me figure out why, especially with Braun's career up in the air.

[rxmeister]

Boly, you're saying we don't need power, but how many times have we played a team even this year, and with one swing of the bat it's over? We just saw it last night with Barmes. Other teams come in here and hit two run and three run homeruns, and we have to work so hard for one damn run. And of those four twenty homerun players you mentioned, none of them will hit 20 this year!
And Allen, I agree about Granderson, but I think the factors you mentioned are what will make him affordable. If they spend a ton of money of Pence, they're not going to be able to afford an elite outfielder , and I think Granderson might fall into their price range with all those negatives you mentioned. I do think they'll look to trade prospects for a left fielder first though.

[klaiggeb]

Boly, you're saying we don't need power, but how many times have we played a team even this year, and with one swing of the bat it's over? We just saw it last night with Barmes. Other teams come in here and hit two run and three run homeruns, and we have to work so hard for one damn run. And of those four twenty homerun players you mentioned, none of them will hit 20 this year!

---boly says----

This year, I agree. But Mark, I'm talking "ability," here; "Potential."

And the 5 guys I mentioned should be hitting 20+ every year in their prime.

Thus, my statement; we don't need a power bat, we need defense and speed.

No. Let me re state that; we need speed and a LEGITIMATE leadoff guy, which Pagan is not.

boly

[allenreed]

I think a more important problem is giving up homers to guys who almost never hit them. Barmes is a prime example. Jordy Mercer the day before. It points to a lack of focus from the pitchers. How many hits have we given up to opposing pitchers this year? How often do we walk the first batter of an inning?
Pablo has hit all of one hiomer since May. He only hit 12 last year. It wouldn't be hard to make the argument that at 27, he's in decline.
If they don't throw a ton of money away on Lincecum, they can afford an elite outfielder. Remember, you save $11 million by letting Zito go.
Why isn't Pagan a legitimate leadoff guy?

[dk]

Aug 24, 2013 10:17:34 GMT -5 klaiggeb said:

Pagan has a four year deal by the way, not five. Probably the best OF sign on the market is Choo of the Reds. I would love him or take a shot at Curtis Granderson.

---boly says---

Everyone seems obsessed with us getting a power hitting LF.

I contend we don't need that.

I contend we HAVE 4 guys with 20+ HR power right in the middle of our lineup

Posey-Fatso-Pence-Belt.

I want more speed in the line up.

In my NEVER WILL HAPPEN scenario, and based upon my 4 above, we'd have 3 guys who can run:

Ellsbury-Pagan-Pence

A couple of average to above average guys:

Belt-Crawford-Scutaro

And only two base cloggers:

Posey and Fatso

That is decent balance.

Ah, yes. Foolish dreams...

boly

dk..The Giants management are always saying they need a speed team because of the size of the ball park...and then the would go out and sign over the hill sluggers who couldn't handle the shape of the ball park either at bat or in the field....the last few years they have had some guys with above average speed, but they still don't do much running...either Bochy don't like the running game or the guys themselves don't run...the biggest indication that something was wrong when they moved Scutero out of the 2 spot...he is still the best 2 hitter on the team, but was being wasted by not putting on the hit and run, even when the might get a runner on ahead of him...

Does everyone notice how much smaller the ball park is when the good teams are at bat than when it is when the Giants come up???

[rxmeister]

I don't know if you saw the HR by Barmes, but the guy is a notorious high ball hitter and Bumgarner threw one down below the strike zone and he took a bent arm swing at the ball and knocked it into the bleachers. There's been so many things that happened this year that made me shake my head and just say it's not our year, but this had to be near the top of the list.

[sfgdood]

---boly says----

This year, I agree. But Mark, I'm talking "ability," here; "Potential."

Dood - can we talk Ability regarding Pablo and Timmy?

~Dood

[klaiggeb]

I don't know if you saw the HR by Barmes, but the guy is a notorious high ball hitter and Bumgarner threw one down below the strike zone and he took a bent arm swing at the ball and knocked it into the bleachers. There's been so many things that happened this year that made me shake my head and just say it's not our year, but this had to be near the top of the list.

---boly says---

You said it, Mark.

THAT pitch... THAT hit... basically summed up our entire year.

HIgh ball hitter, GREAT... no, darned near perfect pitch... 3 run HR.

Ridiculous.

But that's what happens when your team is NOT going to win.


As a poster recently said: when you're going well, balls fall in, flyballs often carry further and end up in the seats.

When you're not... nothing seems to fall, and the majority of bullets that your team hit... find leather.

I subscribe to that theory. Always have, always will.

boly

[klaiggeb]

---boly says----

This year, I agree. But Mark, I'm talking "ability," here; "Potential."

Dood - can we talk Ability regarding Pablo and Timmy?

~Dood

---boly says---

I can't explain fatso, Randy, but I do believe I CAN explain (and repeatedly have), Timmy's.

It's not that Timmy doesn't have talent.

He does.

BUT... what has done him in, and continues to do so is technique. He got by on talent, but as he got older, his lack of technique did him in.

Pablo ALWAYS had great technique; short, quick stroke to the ball.

I would bet the farm he WILL rebound, and rebound (excuse the pun), hugely!

Timmy will not, for the reasons I stated above, and have continued to state.

boly

[Islandboagie]

I thought you were against the free swinging approach?

[Islandboagie]

Boly-I can't explain fatso, Randy, but I do believe I CAN explain (and repeatedly have), Timmy's

Boagie- Can you explain the 2 Cy Young awards? The postseason success, the amount of strikeouts and the no hitter?

[allenreed]

Can you explain what happened to that guy? Why at the still young age of 29, he's become a less than mediocre pitcher?

[sfgdood]

Can you explain what happened to that guy? Why at the still young age of 29, he's become a less than mediocre pitcher?

Dood - I believe Baggerly did a decent job of explaining Tim's problems (and, more importantly, why he has recently improved)...such a good job that I made a thread about it called "Baggs on Timmy."

~Dood

[Islandboagie]

Allen- Can you explain what happened to that guy? Why at the still young a


ge of 29, he's become a less than mediocre pitcher?

Boagie- There could be a number of reasons. First and foremost, velocity. Having a mid to high 90s fastball to rely on makes a big difference than trying to get a high 80s - low 90s fastball past someone. I believe the increasing use of his slider and decreasing use of the curve ball also might have something to do with it.

In 2011 I believe he might have dabbled in steroid use, which may have effected his flexibility. I have no proof of that other than his body size changed dramatically that season and his effectiveness was diminished.

It could be the excess innings he had to pitch in the 2010 post season.

I think him and Molina had a good rapport. Just coincidence that Lincecum hasn't been the same since Molina left? Who knows?

What I do know is those are differences between Cy Young Tim and present day Tim. Whereas Tim's mechanics have stayed the same. So why is that to blame?

The argument with Tim's mechanics is they're so complicated that he couldn't keep repeating it, and it would lead to an injury. Tim has been healthy and from what I see he's been able to repeat it.

So I ask again...if his mechanics are so bad, how was he able to win 2 Cy Young awards and manage to also dominate in the post-season?

[klaiggeb]

Boly-I can't explain fatso, Randy, but I do believe I CAN explain (and repeatedly have), Timmy's

Boagie- Can you explain the 2 Cy Young awards? The postseason success, the amount of strikeouts and the no hitter?

---boly says---

Actually, Boagie, I can, and I have done so before.

Complicated mechanics can work just fine when the athelete is young, especially if you have a ton of talent.

Which Tim has.

But as an athelete gets older, those same complicated mechanics are your undoing.

My best example was Arnie Palmer.

When he was young, prior to age 35ish, he was the best in the game, or darned near.

He had a very, very complicated, inside out, goofy swing.

As he got to what should have been his prime years... he couldn't hold that swing together for 3 or 4 rounds of golf.

So yeah, like Tim, he'd have his occasional moments, but, for him, his heyday was over.

He was going down hill before his time... just like Tim.

Thus, the no hitter, thus the K's.

He can hold it together for short periods, but that's it.

And from 2 years ago when I first made that statement, for one of the few times in recent history, I've been spot on right.

boly

[klaiggeb]

I thought you were against the free swinging approach?

---boly says---

I am. Always have been, always will be.

But there are some exceptions.

Clemente being the foremost in my mind, Yogi Berra another.

I HATE it when Pablo chases that crap, but the facts are what they are; he can hit.

For 99% of the hitters it's a stupid way to play (Blanco, for example), but for fatso? Well, I have to live with it.

boly

[klaiggeb]

The argument with Tim's mechanics is they're so complicated that he couldn't keep repeating it, and it would lead to an injury. Tim has been healthy and from what I see he's been able to repeat it.

So I ask again...if his mechanics are so bad, how was he able to win 2 Cy Young awards and manage to also dominate in the post-season?

---boly says---

But Boagie, he no longer can repeat it over 7 to 9 innings.

Still has great stuff, but still has poor command.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Do you think its a complete loss of command or the fact that hitters just don't swing at his stuff anymore? I believe it to be the latter.

You claim complicated mechanics work for young athletes, if that is accurate in Tim's case, why then did Tim actually walk more per 9 than he is this year?

If it's all about command then why did he only walk .3 less per 9 during his first Cy Young season?

Those differences don't tell me there's a huge problem in Tim's command.

Jonathan Sanchez had poor command, but did that lead to a lot of hits or homeruns? No, just walks.

Where Tim's numbers really look different is in his homeruns and hits per 9. Which tells me it MAY be command, but much more likely its his velocity. Hitters aren't chasing because they don't need to cheat to hit his fastball anymore.

Of course walking hitters doesn't help, but a lot of those walks are due to hitters just not biting. I've seen it many times where Tim has two strikes on someone and just can't quite finish them off.

While I agree he might have to change his approach on the mound, I don't think its his mechanics that are getting in the way of that. I'm fairly certain Tim can throw cookies right over the plate if control is what you're looking for. Unfortunately that's what the hitters are looking for too.

[Islandboagie]

In the second sentence I meant to say "in his rookie season"

[klaiggeb]

Do you think its a complete loss of command or the fact that hitters just don't swing at his stuff anymore? I believe it to be the latter.


-
You claim complicated mechanics work for young athletes, if that is accurate in Tim's case, why then did Tim actually walk more per 9 than he is this year?

If it's all about command then why did he only walk .3 less per 9 during his first Cy Young season?

--boly says---

It's not a complete loss of command, Boagie, because Tim never really had good command.

And please understand, as a former pitcher and long time coach, "command" is not necessarily walks. It's command of LOCATION within the strike zone.

Time threw so hard, and had so much natural movement, command really wasn't a priority for him.

He still has the stuff, but not the velocity. So NOW, when he DESPERATELY needs that command...that he never had, he struggles to get by.


Those differences don't tell me there's a huge problem in Tim's command.

Jonathan Sanchez had poor command, but did that lead to a lot of hits or homeruns? No, just walks.


---boly says----

Boagie, I don't know what you see when you see Timmy pitch, versus guys like Vogey, Cain, and others... but THEY command the strike zone but do NOT have Tim's stuff.

Why?

Look at the mechanics of each of those two, and if you want other names, I'll provide some.

Both have simple, easy to repeat mechanics.

Neither has a long stride...no make that an outrageously long stride, and neither wraps their arm behind their backs and fannies like Tim does.

Krukow talks about this all the time, and frequently has them showing video of Tim's arm drop, fanny wrap, and crazy assed stride.

Boagie, there are so many goofy things that Tim does to exaggerate and exacerbate his problems that simply take too long to do in print. We'd have to talk in person, and I'd be able to demonstrate so you can "see" what I mean.

Where Tim's numbers really look different is in his homeruns and hits per 9. Which tells me it MAY be command, but much more likely its his velocity. Hitters aren't chasing because they don't need to cheat to hit his fastball anymore.


---boly says---

Certainly, velocity IS a part of the problem.

But here's a bigger part; how often do we see Tim piching behind in the count?

That's a command issue.

It's like he's always battling up hill.

With decreased velocity, he can no longer make mistakes in the hitting zone, which he often got away with when he threw in the mid 90's.

But that brings me back to the command he never had.

Now his mistakes are hammered, where before, they were missed, or popped up.



Of course walking hitters doesn't help, but a lot of those walks are due to hitters just not biting. I've seen it many times where Tim has two strikes on someone and just can't quite finish them off.

While I agree he might have to change his approach on the mound, I don't think its his mechanics that are getting in the way of that. I'm fairly certain Tim can throw cookies right over the plate if control is what you're looking for. Unfortunately that's what the hitters are looking for too.

---boly says---

Boagie, with all due respect, and I mean that 'ALL DUE RESPECT,' because I have tremendous respect for your baseball knowledge, you're wrong here. And not by just a little.

He can't finish them off because he can't command all of his pitches to set up what he needs to do.

His awkward mechanics are the major cause of that.

It's like Krukow continually says when talking pitching; they HAVE to be able to repeat the arm slot, and the ability to get over that front leg... which timmy can no longer consistantly do.

Krukow says Tim can't repeat and states why.

I have explained in detail why he can't.

Don, also a long time, former pitcher at a high level, has agreed about the stride, and added the point about Tim's JUMPING off the rubber.

That's 3 form pitchers who played at high levels saying the same thing.

Admitedly, Kruk played at a higher level than Don or I, but my point stands.

He can't repeat the whole deal, and thus, the problem is not mostly velocity.

boly

[Islandboagie]

I hear what you're saying, Boly. I just can't agree that him changing his mechanics will make everything better. As for Kruk, you, Don and the other experts...the experts thought Tim would never succeed at the Major League level, period.

Again, on this topic we'll just have to agree to disagree and see how the rest of Tim's career ends up.

[sharksrog]

I hope I'm not going against the grain when I say that what the Giants need is good players, regardless of their power or speed.

If a team has good overall players, does it matter all that much what the balance of speed, power and fielding is?

[sfgdood]

yes it does matter. You can't have 8 Jacoby Ellsburys and expect to win. This isnt the '86 St Louis Cardinals. You can't as a team hit fewer HRs than Bonds did in 2001 and be successful. Interesting, yes. Exciting maybe. Fast as all get out. But successful? In a fan base that now defines success with division titles, NL pennants and World Series titles, success with such a lineup would be highly doubtful.

~Dood