Giants' Prospect Review

[sharksrog]

A quick synopsis of this week's Bleacher Report's Top 10 Giants Prospects, with the first position changes I can remember:

1. Kyle Crick -- 52 strikeouts in 36 innings. 1.58 ERA. best potential of any Giants prospect. 94-97 mph fastball indicates ace potential if control improves. Stock: UP

2. Clayton Blackburn -- Most polished prospect tossed eight innings of one-run ball. Stock: UP

3. Chris Stratton -- Solid Low A season. 8 shutout innings last week. Stock: UP

4. (Up from #5) Edwin Escobar -- 14.1 straight scoreless innings at Richmond. 5 starts after promotion from San Jose. Could pitch in SF as soon as next season. Stock: UP

5. (Down from #4) Andrew Susac -- Improving catcher is on DL with shoulder injury. Stock: DOWN

6. (Up from #7) Joe Panik -- Hitting a little better but moved up mostly because of injury to Martin Agosta. Contact hitter with little power. Good plate discipline. Stock: UP

7. (Down from #6) Martin Agosta -- Excellent Low A pitching interrrupted by two injuries. Stock: DOWN

8. Heath Hembree -- Three saves last week show increasing stability as closer. Likely up in September. Stock: UP

9. (Up from #10) Mac Williamson -- Hot power hitter in June and July cooled off to 4-for 22 last week. Stock: EVEN

10. (Down from #9) Gary Brown -- BA down from .336 in A to .279 in AA to .237 in AAA. Steals down from 53 to 33 to 12. 107 strikeouts in 452 at bats. Excellent fielder considered equal of Juan Perez. Stock: DOWN

[dk]

Aug 5, 2013 12:58:51 GMT -5 sharksrog said:

A quick synopsis of this week's Bleacher Report's Top 10 Giants Prospects, with the first position changes I can remember:

1. Kyle Crick -- 52 strikeouts in 36 innings. 1.58 ERA. best potential of any Giants prospect. 94-97 mph fastball indicates ace potential if control improves. Stock: UP

2. Clayton Blackburn -- Most polished prospect tossed eight innings of one-run ball. Stock: UP

3. Chris Stratton -- Solid Low A season. 8 shutout innings last week. Stock: UP

4. (Up from #5) Edwin Escobar -- 14.1 straight scoreless innings at Richmond. 5 starts after promotion from San Jose. Could pitch in SF as soon as next season. Stock: UP

5. (Down from #4) Andrew Susac -- Improving catcher is on DL with shoulder injury. Stock: DOWN

6. (Up from #7) Joe Panik -- Hitting a little better but moved up mostly because of injury to Martin Agosta. Contact hitter with little power. Good plate discipline. Stock: UP

7. (Down from #6) Martin Agosta -- Excellent Low A pitching interrrupted by two injuries. Stock: DOWN

8. Heath Hembree -- Three saves last week show increasing stability as closer. Likely up in September. Stock: UP

9. (Up from #10) Mac Williamson -- Hot power hitter in June and July cooled off to 4-for 22 last week. Stock: EVEN

10. (Down from #9) Gary Brown -- BA down from .336 in A to .279 in AA to .237 in AAA. Steals down from 53 to 33 to 12. 107 strikeouts in 452 at bats. Excellent fielder considered equal of Juan Perez. Stock: DOWN[

dk..Panik was back playing SS...so the one time top prospect is being prepared for future utility player.....in the mean time,Matt Duffy keeps hitting.... if the Giants are real serious of a new leaed off hitter, recall Perez and try him there...it seems as if he is starting to use his speed down in Fresno....his arm is better than Blanco's, but I still would use Blanco/Torres in left and forget about Frenchy and Roger...Roger needs to play every day...in Fresno...

[sharksrog]

dk..Panik was back playing SS...so the one time top prospect is being prepared for future utility player.

Rog -- Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't realize Joe had switch back to shortstop. I would say that this season has made it appear less likely that he will become a starter, although he likely will be if he can hit .280 or .290. At his present .261 though, probably not. Right now he's perhaps looking like a platoon player.

He's only 22 though, so he's still got time to develop. A key in how the Giants now see Joe may be whether they move him up to AAA next season. That would keep him on the normal track for a starter.

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[sfgdood]

1. Kyle Crick -- 52 strikeouts in 36 innings. 1.58 ERA. best potential of any Giants prospect. 94-97 mph fastball indicates ace potential if control improves. Stock: UP

2. Clayton Blackburn -- Most polished prospect tossed eight innings of one-run ball. Stock: UP

3. Chris Stratton -- Solid Low A season. 8 shutout innings last week. Stock: UP

4. (Up from #5) Edwin Escobar -- 14.1 straight scoreless innings at Richmond. 5 starts after promotion from San Jose. Could pitch in SF as soon as next season. Stock: UP

5. (Down from #4) Andrew Susac -- Improving catcher is on DL with shoulder injury. Stock: DOWN

6. (Up from #7) Joe Panik -- Hitting a little better but moved up mostly because of injury to Martin Agosta. Contact hitter with little power. Good plate discipline. Stock: UP

7. (Down from #6) Martin Agosta -- Excellent Low A pitching interrrupted by two injuries. Stock: DOWN

8. Heath Hembree -- Three saves last week show increasing stability as closer. Likely up in September. Stock: UP

9. (Up from #10) Mac Williamson -- Hot power hitter in June and July cooled off to 4-for 22 last week. Stock: EVEN

10. (Down from #9) Gary Brown --

Dood - among these prospects, only Hembree has done anything impressive above A ball, and he's got arm problems. According to Rog's logic, this whole list is meaningless.

~Dood

[Islandboagie]

According to your logic most of the players on this list should be called up now because they've already proven all they need to prove, succeed in San Jose.

[sfgdood]

No, to me it's not the CAL League stats proving they belong. Every player is different. I see every Giants prospect as they pass through San Jose. I know that some, even if they may "kill it" while they are here, wont necessarily transfer that talent to the big leagues. Some can only hit for power, some get enough hits to bump up their stats but don't look particularly impressive in doing it. I could see from watching Crawford that he would struggle in the big leagues. He looked off balance way too much and was just barely able to foul off pitches I didn't think were all that nasty. However, I knew that playing a defensive position that the Giants were not particularly stacked at, he would move up fairly quickly.

I understand that Gary Brown doesn't have those advantages. Pagan was signed to a big deal which I thought was a waste since Brown was in the wings. But the Giants didnt want to lose Angel, who had a breakout year. And Gary's overall numbers have indeed slipped. I have been disappointed, moreso this year than last, since the PCL is more of a hitters league. Gary also plays a defensive position, which he is excellent at, but the Giants want him to lead off and that, I believe, is what's taking Gary extra long to adapt to. That he will, I have no doubt...but it is taking longer than I expected. Part of that I blame on the Giants' development people.

My hope is that if Gary starts to turn it around, they don't just keep him in AAA because of Pagan. I'd rather see him traded than have that happen. I don't want him to be all slow and used up by the time the Giants decide he's "ready." My biggest fear is that he'll get injured before he gets the chance to show his wares in SF...like Heath Hembree.

~Dood

[rxmeister]

The .228 batting average is keeping him at Fresno, not the Giants. He'd be here already if he had shown anything, just like Juan Perez, Tanaka and Kieschnick have already gotten looks in the outfield.

[sfgdood]

Yep those guys got their shots already, as did Peguero and Cole Gillespie, and they all failed...and none of them can throw the type of GG caliber defense out there that Gary Brown gives you. Please answer me...how could Brown be any worse? i don't see how.

~Dood

[Islandboagie]

I agree with a lot of what you're saying here. To me it sounds like you think Gary Brown isn't ready, so why do you want them to call him up? The situation to me just doesn't warrant it. If the Giants were out of ideas for LF AND were in a pennant race I'd say give it a shot, that's the only situation where I'd see calling up Gary Brown before the Grizzlies season is over. Didn't we learn our lesson with Belt. In fact, I'd say the way they have treated Brown is in large part due to the regrets over how they handled the Belt situation.

While I agree with a lot of your thoughts here there are two things I'm not sure I agree with.

--I didn't see a lot of the murders row team in 2009, but I did make it to one game and I saw a full team of guys that were destined for the big leagues and a large portion of them I thought looked to be future All-Stars. Posey, Crawford, Villalona, Neal, Keishnick, Gillaspie, Noonan..am I missing anyone?...it was probably the best minor league lineup I've ever seen. I just can't understand how you knew Crawford was going to struggle back then. And, has he really struggled? I know there were some adjustments he dealt with, but at no time did I really consider Crawford "struggling." That may just be me though, and you very well may have better eyes as far as seeing prospects than I do. I'll say honestly that I've always been able to notice young pitcher much easier than young hitters.

Finally, I just don't understand why signing Pagan continues to upset the Brown supporters. There are 3 outfield spots! We know we need someone to fill LF already and it could that after this season we may need a RF too. Let's also remember that Pagan is getting older and he just suffered a bad injury to his leg, perhaps now would be the perfect time to move him to a corner outfield spot. IF (and that's a BIG IF) Brown has a good spring I wouldn't mind seeing him starting in CF next year with Blanco being his backup.

[sfgdood]

I just can't understand how you knew Crawford was going to struggle back then. And, has he really struggled? I know there were some adjustments he dealt with, but at no time did I really consider Crawford "struggling." That may just be me though, and you very well may have better eyes as far as seeing prospects than I do.

Dood - He hit .204 in 66 games in 2011 (and he needed a late push to get over the Mendoza line). If that's not struggling, then Gary Brown is deserving of a promotion.




Finally, I just don't understand why signing Pagan continues to upset the Brown supporters.

Dood - I was never upset by it, although I do think we overpaid for him. I was more confused that we would make such a long term committment when our top prospect at the time was at that position. Why put up that kind of roadblock? And that kind of contract would be difficult to trade later when Brown develops. It only makes sense if you don't have faith in Gary Brown...which was confusing to me.





There are 3 outfield spots! We know we need someone to fill LF already and it could that after this season we may need a RF too. Let's also remember that Pagan is getting older and he just suffered a bad injury to his leg, perhaps now would be the perfect time to move him to a corner outfield spot.

Dood - maybe...but Pagan doesnt have that much pop to be playing on the corners...although niether does Blanco and Torres. I do think the outfield (Brown, Pagan and assuming Pence is re-signed) would be nearly as good defensively as the old days with Bonds, McGee and Lewis. I don't think that management was considering any of these factors when they signed Pagan, mores the pity. I would think that unless Brown shows good in September, the Giants will look for other corner outfield options in the offseason and start Gary in Fresno once again, regardless of his Spring numbers.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Randy -- According to Rog's logic, this whole list is meaningless.

Rog -- That simply isn't true, Randy. For starters, if I thought the list were meaningless, why would I post and update it from time to time?

Why do people seem to want to put words in my mouth?



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[sharksrog]

Randy -- I understand that Gary Brown doesn't have those advantages. Pagan was signed to a big deal which I thought was a waste since Brown was in the wings.

Rog -- This season hasn't worked out anyway (although it was going pretty well until Pagan got hurt), but can you imagine if they had counted on Gary?

When a guy hits .279 in AA as he approaches age 24, is that cause to believe he's ready for the bigs?

Randy -- But the Giants didnt want to lose Angel, who had a breakout year.

Rog -- If Gary were to come through next season, the Giants could move Pagan to left field or trade him.

Randy -- And Gary's overall numbers have indeed slipped. I have been disappointed, moreso this year than last, since the PCL is more of a hitters league. Gary also plays a defensive position, which he is excellent at, but the Giants want him to lead off and that, I believe, is what's taking Gary extra long to adapt to.

Rog -- Hitting is hitting. Barry Bonds didn't have any problem adapting to the leadoff slot, did he? Nor did his dad.

I realize those guys were both special hitters, but a hitter is a hitter.

Randy -- That he will, I have no doubt...

Rog -- I have had doubts ever since I saw how few walks he drew in college. Some of the scouts had questions as well -- although that is almost always the case.

Perhaps a difference between us is that I almost ALWAYS have at least a tiny doubt. There have been many prospects who looked at least as good as Gary did who fairly quickly burned out.

Randy -- but it is taking longer than I expected. Part of that I blame on the Giants' development people.

Rog -- We have very little idea how the Giants are developing Gary.

I will say this: The Giants haven't had a lot of luck with developing position players. But is that a development problem or a drafting problem? Realistically, probably some of each. But really, we just don't know.



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[sharksrog]

Mark -- The .228 batting average is keeping him at Fresno, not the Giants. He'd be here already if he had shown anything, just like Juan Perez, Tanaka and Kieschnick have already gotten looks in the outfield.

Rog -- You have a knack at getting right to the crux of the situation, Mark. And there was once a time when I saw a little of that in Randy too. Maybe a should take some of the blame here. It sometimes seems as if whatever I say, Randy will take the opposite position.

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[sharksrog]

Boagie -- I didn't see a lot of the murders row team in 2009, but I did make it to one game and I saw a full team of guys that were destined for the big leagues and a large portion of them I thought looked to be future All-Stars. Posey, Crawford, Villalona, Neal, Keishnick, Gillaspie, Noonan..am I missing anyone?...

Rog -- I believe the center fielder was Darren Ford, and they had two top pitching prospects in Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson.

If you are somehow able to look back, you will see that I had questions about all those guys except for Buster. The one guy I OVERRATED back than was Alderson, although I did at least have questions about his fastball (which I believe the guy with the speed gun said hadn't exceeded 92 or 93 all season) and that he hadn't used his change up much.

Tim's things were his breaking ball and his control. I simply overestimated him. Probably overestimated Thomas Neal a little bit too.

I have mentioned this before, but April 10th of that year, I had the flat-out PLEASURE of watching Mad Bum throw his first San Jose bullpen warmup and game to Buster Posey. I also saw Buster catch Alderson in the 2008 playoffs. Right behind the plate and in the first row or two in each case.

I don't know HOW it is so easy to get great seats right behind the plate in the minor leagues, but in my experience it has been.

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[sfgdood]

Rog -- This season hasn't worked out anyway (although it was going pretty well until Pagan got hurt), but can you imagine if they had counted on Gary?

When a guy hits .279 in AA as he approaches age 24, is that cause to believe he's ready for the bigs?

Dood - when the alternatives are Tanaka, Francoeur, Torres and Blanco...yes.

~Dood

[sharksrog]

Randy -- Pagan doesnt have that much pop to be playing on the corners...although niether does Blanco and Torres.

Rog -- I agree with you here. Pagan is marginal, while Blancres is feeble and must rely on defense to try to even things out.

Randy -- I do think the outfield (Brown, Pagan and assuming Pence is re-signed) would be nearly as good defensively as the old days with Bonds, McGee and Lewis.

Rog -- Probably not a bad comparison, although I think McGee might have been better than Pence and Bonds was almost certainly better than Pagan.

Randy -- I don't think that management was considering any of these factors when they signed Pagan, mores the pity.

Rog -- We were certainly considering it here, so I can't imagine they weren't. Sometimes we seem to think they're fools who don't

At the time, we said that the Giants would likely move Pagan to left field when Brown arrived, or that they could also trade Angel if they so chose.

Randy -- I would think that unless Brown shows good in September, the Giants will look for other corner outfield options in the offseason and start Gary in Fresno once again, regardless of his Spring numbers.

Rog -- I wonder if the Giants will even bring Gary up next month. He hasn't really played well to deserve such a reward, and he's not on the 40-man roster, meaning the Giants would need to remove a player in order to call him up.

If I were the Giants, I wouldn't be counting on Gary next season, would you? If he fares well at Fresno next season, a big league opportunity will almost certainly materialize for him. Somebody said he's down to .228 now? Gary hit very well in June, but the rest of the season he's hit about .200.

He hasn't been marginal. He's been awful. We've seen how the Giants have brought up guys who have performed MUCH better at Fresno than Gary did -- and we've seen the holes in those guys. We can only imagine how many holes Gary has at this point.

He's got some time to get things back together, and he HAS made it up to AAA. He's got great speed and excels defensively.

But at some point he's going to need to stop making so many outs.



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