Allen- The Giants need to seriously think about revamping their rotation. They're just not getting enough bang for their buck. I would bring Vogey back, because the price is reasonable. Zito can only pitch at home this year, and Lincecum continues to be a puzzle with missing pieces.
I'd happily give Brown AND Panik for Norris today, if it were offered. Wouldn't deal with Nolasco as long as Boras is his agent.
Rog -- Bruce Bochy has said the Giants will strengthen their pitching through the bullpen. That likely has to do with three factors:
. The rotation's ERA the last two times through was 2.30, indicating they may be getting back on track.
. As we have discussed, there is a lot of demand for starting pitching, and the Giants likely think the prices are too high right now.
. Santiago Casilla and Ryan Vogelsong (as well as Chad Gaudin now) will be back, which should strengthen the staff.
The Norris idea is intriguing and I suspect might be able to be pulled off. What makes it intriguing are three factors:
. Unlike Nolasco, Norris DOES appear to be better. His first-pitch strikes and strikes overall have taken nice jumps. Fewer strikeouts may be a concern, but it appears he is getting ahead and pitching more to contact. His ground ball rate is up.
His home run rate is down, although that appears to be slightly illurory, as his percentage of infield fly balls is also down. (They usually go in opposite directions, with the lower home runs and higher infield fly balls obviously being preferred.)
But while his hit rate is up to a concerning 9.9 per nine from last season's so-so 8.8, part of that is due to an increase in Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). Ground balls lead to more hits, and he is throwing more of them (which overall is a plus). Another part of the higher hits is the lower strikeout rate (down a somewhat alarming 6.3 from 8.8).
The picture is a bit muddled on Norris, but I believe overall he has truly improved by becoming more of a get ahead, pitch to contract type of pitcher. His fastball is still at 92.2 mph (up from 91.8 last season, although down from 92.6 in 2011), and he still has a fine slider as his out pitch.
Norris is under team control through the end of the 2015 season (two-plus seasons), and he has indicated a desire to play for the team he grew up rooting for, which just happens to play in San Francisco.
Price-wise, Norris will be kept under control by arbitration, but his first year of arbitration indicates he would have received a fair sum had he been a free agent. First-year arb eligibles are considered to receive about 40% of their value in free agency. Norris' $3 million award would translate to about $7.5 million as a free agent -- and that was BEFORE his good season, back when he had a career ERA of around 4.4.
That Norris has professed a strong liking for playing with the Giants indicates they might retain him for a long time. He is just 28 and appears to be a little better than a league average starter, which should make at least a good #4 on a strong pitching team.
Now, for the cost you have proposed.
Panik has fallen upon very hard times (something like 2 for 34), but is bouncing back (6 for 13), upping him to a still-disappointing .258. He is still the heir apparent to Marco Scutaro, but he is beginning to look like he could be a 2nd-division starter rather than a 1st-division lineup guy.
The biggest positive in his game is only one strikeout per 10 at bats, and he has 10 more walks than strikeouts. I think he will become a good traditional #2 hitter, hitting behind the runner with his lefty bat.
But he may need to sit against some southpaw pitchers, he won't hit for any power, and I suspect he hits into a goodly number of double plays (average speed, although 7 for 10 in steals). His glove appears to be average.
The #2 position in the order is becoming more of a productive (and sometimes powerful) spot in the order. For an extreme example, think Yasiel Puig. In the new lineups of today, Panik is likely better suited to the bottom of the order.
That could a problem, with Brown's inability to get on base (.304 OBP) and his so-so base stealing (10 for 17) making him also a more likely bottom-of-the-order hitter than his expected leadoff position. Brown doesn't walk much (20 in 311 at bats), but he does get hit by a lot of pitches. He strikes out way too much for a leadoff hitter (once every four at bats).
Defensively, Brown is close to Juan Perez, but unfortunately his hitting has been no better. Brown has hit just .241 at Fresno this season compared to the two-years-older Perez's .296.
In theory, Brown is the Giants' center fielder of the future, and Panik is their second baseman. Brown's stock has declined each of the past two seasons, and Panik's is trending downward now.
Last winter, this trade would clearly have been a no-go for the Giants. Now it doesn't appear so lopsided. I would consider pulling the trigger on this one, although the risk would be on the Giants' side with the loss of arguably their top two position prospects.
If Norris continues to perform, he might become a long-time Giant, which might make up for the loss of potential long careers from Brown (24) and Panik (22).
My gut is starting to scream "no" on this one, so I'd have to say I wouldn't do it at this time, but I don't think it is a lopsided proposal.
Even though I wouldn't make the deal, I applaud you for what is a reasonable proposal, Allen.
Read more:
sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1847&page=1#11921#ixzz2XFHD9wgr
