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Post by klaiggeb on Jun 13, 2013 11:09:03 GMT -5
1-It has been, and continues to be obvious to me that Barry Zito of 2012 and the Barry Zito of 2013 are light years apart.
Last year's Zito was focused, and tough and came up big when needed the most.
This year?
Well, I think last night's outting solidifies my point; 2012 was his FSY. What we can expect is maybe 1 good game out of each 3 or 4 from the rest of the way out... and that's not good enough.
Wayne Garland was just released and honestly, I'd take him over Zito. I think he could give us 5 better innings than Barry.
2-Juan Perez may be raw, and he may no longer be a big prospect, but the kid can play for me.
Not likely as a starter, but as a utility guy.
I DON'T like the "Gary Sheffield" cocking of the hands that he does before swinging. THAT will cause a loop in the swing, and cause him to be tardy on good fastballs.
Still, I like the kid.
3-Abrue stunned me last night with the bat. Where in the world did that come from? Most of his career has been... well, not very good offensively.
4-These last 2 weeks, Andres Torres looks wired and locked in. I haven't seen this from him since 2010.
5-Kontos got what he EARNED; not the suspension, the demotion. I pointed out 2 weeks ago how I felt he'd been not very good to awful.
6-Arias is suddenly doing what he did last year when Fatso went down. Outstanding defense, and clutch offense.
The guy just seems to understand the game, and how to play it.
Another guy who can play for me anytime.
7-Time to show Ramirez the door.
8-Time to sign almost anyone, and cut Zito loose.
9-Time to sign almost anyone, and send Tim to the bullpen.
10-Mijares has not been very good either, which leaves a hole in the bullpen. RHB are hitting, what? .8000 against him?
11-This club is in serious trouble, mid June or not.
We need help in starting pitching, and we need help in the bullpen.
I'm not sure either can wait until the break.
Problem is, there's not much starting pitching out there unless we could somehow fanagle Cliff Lee; not going to happen.
12-I don't care how well Abreu did last night; I still give Noonan the majority of at bats vs RHP
boly
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Post by allenreed on Jun 13, 2013 11:21:44 GMT -5
Wayne Garland was just released and honestly, I'd take him over Zito. I think he could give us 5 better innings than Barry.
Allen- Wayne hasn't pitched since 1981. He's 62 years old now. You may mean Jon Garland.
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Post by klaiggeb on Jun 13, 2013 13:11:24 GMT -5
Wayne Garland was just released and honestly, I'd take him over Zito. I think he could give us 5 better innings than Barry. Allen- Wayne hasn't pitched since 1981. He's 62 years old now. You may mean Jon Garland. --boly says--- Picky, picky, picky... Yeah, I knew Wayne wasn't right when I wrote it, but I simply could not remember his first name. And jsut for the record, I'll bet Wayne could STILL pitch better 'n Zito!  Remember, I thought Dead Bobby (Feller) was a better option, too! boly |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 13, 2013 14:24:18 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 13, 2013 14:36:27 GMT -5
I haven't looked closely at Garland, but I probably wouldn't give him a major league contract unless it was to pitch long relief. But I would snag him for Fresno if given the chance.
Yes, I've been predicting the implosion of Barry Zito, but I do want to point out that until yesterday he had clearly the 2nd-best ERA of any Giants full-time starter and was less than half a run from having the lowest.
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Post by Islandboagie on Jun 14, 2013 8:20:17 GMT -5
Boly- 1-It has been, and continues to be obvious to me that Barry Zito of 2012 and the Barry Zito of 2013 are light years apart.
Last year's Zito was focused, and tough and came up big when needed the most.
This year?
Well, I think last night's outting solidifies my point; 2012 was his FSY. What we can expect is maybe 1 good game out of each 3 or 4 from the rest of the way out... and that's not good enough.
Wayne Garland was just released and honestly, I'd take him over Zito. I think he could give us 5 better innings than Barry.
Boagie- Light years apart does tell the story of Barry this year, but not between last year and this year, it's about his home and road games. Barry has been very good at home and very bad on the road. At home Barry is 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA, on the road he's 0-4 with a 11.28 ERA. It's too soon to give up on Barry again, like you all did after 2011. Just a month ago we were talking about how he'd revitalized his career..ect.
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Post by Islandboagie on Jun 14, 2013 8:31:53 GMT -5
Boly- 4-These last 2 weeks, Andres Torres looks wired and locked in. I haven't seen this from him since 2010.
Boagie- After this post, he strikes out 3 times in 4 at-bats. Boly, you're only allowed to say negative things about Torres, I thought we've established this already.
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Post by klaiggeb on Jun 14, 2013 13:17:04 GMT -5
Boagie- Light years apart does tell the story of Barry this year, but not between last year and this year, it's about his home and road games. Barry has been very good at home and very bad on the road. At home Barry is 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA, on the road he's 0-4 with a 11.28 ERA. It's too soon to give up on Barry again, like you all did after 2011. Just a month ago we were talking about how he'd revitalized his career..ect.
---boly says---
Boagie: No one, and I mean NO ONE in their right mind could have seen Barry's resurgence last year.
I was exceptionally pleased on two levels:
1-Barry is a really good guy. I like the charity work he does, and I like how he never, ever makes excuses for his bad pitching. He's a quality dude.
2-For the Giants. We needed him, and he was there.
However, all that said, though I think he'll still have his moments, I just believe that they will be too few and too infrequent to be of much help.
Right now it's basically once every 3 outtings. Don't argue my numbers, Rog, please. I said "basically."
I recall our conversation of a month ago.
And to that point, he had.
But somewhere since then, he's gone south.
I mean, Boagie, his ERA is 11.00+ on the road!
I have seen each and every start, and he's up... up... up.
His curve ball, all too frequently, is just rolling up there, and his cutter is hit and miss.
All the hitters have been doing is sitting on one pitch. That pitch varies from game-to-game. It's whatever he's struggling with.
They sit on it, and whack it.
Add some bad luck, and he's had his share of that... and that's a bad formula.
You and I are not going to agree on this, but I'll tell ya', I'm hoping YOU'RE right, and I'm wrong.
boly
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2013 16:09:26 GMT -5
Boagie -- It's too soon to give up on Barry again, like you all did after 2011. Just a month ago we were talking about how he'd revitalized his career..ect. Rog -- We pretty much treat Barry as we treat the Giants as a whole. When he/they perform well, we get overly excited. When he/they struggle, we underrate them. I'm not sure that everyone gave up on Barry after his injury-plagued 2011 season, but I do think we got overly excited about him last season -- which probably wasn't even his best in a Giants uniform. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1830&page=1#11703#ixzz2WE8Zs2Xp |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2013 16:38:40 GMT -5
Boly -- 8-Time to sign almost anyone, and cut Zito loose. Rog -- I think you're overreacting here, Boly. I suggested BEFORE his horrible start on Wednesday that he would implode. But I never suggested cutting him loose. Right now the Giants have only two starters they can truly rely on. And remember how worried you were a monthy ago about one of them (Matt Cain)? I suspect the Giants will trade for a starting pitcher, and they might do so SOON. But it won't be for just anyone. Eventually they will need to decide on a rotation from among Mad Bum, Cain, Lincecum, Vogelsong, Gaudin, Zito and likely a new starter. They should be able to come up with a pretty good quintet from that group. There may be a good chance Zito won't be among the five who make the "cut." But the Giants seemingly could trade him or find another use for him -- even if it is a long reliever and emergency starter. Let's suppose Zito could make a serviceable fifth starter and that he, Mad Bum, Cain, Vogelsong or Gaudin, and the new guy make up the rotation. Think of how the Giants could use a quick hook when they had Lincecum, Gaudin or Vogelsong, Mijares, Lopez, Affeldt, Casilla and Romo available out of the pen. Maybe Heath Hembree. Right now the Giants -- as is the case with most teams -- need to get enough innings out of their starters not to tax their bullpens. But think if they had two from among Lincecum, Gaudin and Vogelsong who could be brought in in any place, at any time. Those guys could conceivably pitch in any role from middle reliever to closer, providing the bullpen with a huge amount of versatility. Just think of a bullpen in which Romo, Casilla, Lincecum or Gaudin/Vogelsong could close on any given day. The Giants wouldn't have to worry about wearing out their closer, since they could use a different closer just about every day if they so chose. Perhaps one answer to building an acceptable rotation is to load up the bullpen. A deep, strong bullpen can come in early to rescue a struggling starter, and they can cover the game's critical moment with a quality pitcher, even if that critical moment comes in the game's middle or early part. Now, I'm not saying Zito will necessarily even be a part of this possible new approach (or simply the old one, either). What I'm saying though is that it would be premature to give up on him now. The Giants need five starters, and they only have two certainties at present. Seems to me that it makes sense to build up the pool of potential rotation guys, not reduce it. I have continually warned about expecting too much from Barry when he gets off to one of his many strong starts to a season. I have warned about expecting too much from him the next season when he finished the previous season strongly. But I have also pointed out that while Barry hasn't come close to earning his contract, he hasn't been as horrible as most seem to think. Barry was signed to be a #1 or at worst #2 starter, and he wasn't even that in his last days with the A's. But for a #5 starter, he has been quite good. Even as a #4 starter he has been more than serviceable. The question has come up recently as to why I sometimes speak to both sides of an issue. Well, perhaps it is because almost every issue has at least two sides. When we say the Giants should jettison Zito, we are likely overreacting to a recent bad start or starts. When we say look at how much we can count on Barry, we are usually overreacting to recent good starts. I think if we look at the situation objectively, we see in Barry a guy who can eat innings, who pitches overall at about the level of a #4 starter, and who is wildly inconsistent. Early this season we got overly excited about him because going back to last season and postseason, the Giants won a very high percentage of his starts. Now, because he has had back-to-back poor starts and just ATTROCIUOS his last time out, we're ready to put him on the road to Fresno. Barry has for the most part been a pretty good but highly inconsistent #4 in his seven seasons with the Giants. For the most part he's been healthy. For the most part we have underrated him. But there are times when we have overrated him, as well. Two weeks ago we were overrating him. Now we're underrating him. But look; he's the guy in the middle of that, not at either extreme. Even when he started the season strongly, I wasn't a Barry Zito fan. But I don't like to see him UNDERRATED, either. He's just a so-so starting pitcher who looks surprisingly good when he's good and can look awful when he's awful. But overall, he takes the ball and gets a so-so-job done most of the time. It's just that he's like the little girl with the curl. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1830&page=1#ixzz2WE9LrUHH |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2013 16:40:10 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2013 16:42:15 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2013 16:45:06 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2013 16:47:06 GMT -5
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 14, 2013 16:51:55 GMT -5
Boly -- I mean, Boagie, his ERA is 11.00+ on the road! Rog -- That's unbelievable, but it's also a very small sample. His overall ERA is far more indicative of his pitching then either his excellent homer ERA of his depressing road ERA. Last season Randy gave up on the Giants because he said they didn't win enough games at home. He seemingly ignored their fine success on the road. This year they're playing well at home, but stink on the road. Perhaps we need to take the more balanced approach of looking at the overall and not focusing quite so heavily on home vs. road. My guess is that they'll play about 81 games each place. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1830&page=1#ixzz2WEIqnPyN |
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Post by klaiggeb on Jun 15, 2013 10:28:47 GMT -5
When we say the Giants should jettison Zito, we are likely overreacting to a recent bad start or starts. When we say look at how much we can count on Barry, we are usually overreacting to recent good starts.
--boly says---
Rog, you could make a good case that I am over reacting to Barry's atrocious starts, and likely, I am.
But when I say "cut him loose," understand that I don't want to just release him. That's counter productive, and foolish.
Like I have always said; I tend to speak in hyperbole, especially when I'm disgusted and angry.
And this year, Barry has provked both, mostly the former, in me.
I hold major leaguers to HIGH STANDARDS. Likely much higher than most fans.
These guys are supposed to be the best. The BEST.
But they are human. I expect ups and downs.
I expect age to take its toll.
But:
1-I also expecty players to adjust, and change as age catches up with them. Many do, but often times they get stubborn and don't. Barry, unlike Tim, to his credit, has
2-IF you're making the money these clowns demand (and please, anyone, don't give me a lecture on "what the market will pay" nonsense. I get it, and I disagree with it), they had better, I repeat, they had BETTER provide management and the fans with the quality at bats and outtings that pay day means. Barry isn't. Not that he's not trying, I KNOW he is.
But darn it, as my father used to say "piss or get off the pot!"
An 11.00 ERA on the road after THIS many starts is ridiculous!
If I was a Braves fan, I'd be all over both Uggla and Upton. NO EXCUSE for sub .200 batting averages in June! None!
So when I say "cut him loose," when the disgust and angre subsides, I mean:
1-try to move him
2-move him to the pen
3-at the break IF the situation hasn't been corrected, part ways.
boly
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Post by klaiggeb on Jun 15, 2013 10:30:30 GMT -5
Boagie: No one, and I mean NO ONE in their right mind could have seen Barry's resurgence last year. Rog -- Seriously? I disagree on two levels. First, I think it was odds-on that he would clearly improve on his injury-plagued 2011 season. Second, I think we overrated him last season -- and early this year. --boly says--- Rog, that was my statement. And as to yours? Really? You thought he'd rebound? Please, call my nurse and make an appointment. We have some couch time open and I think I need to examine your mental well being. boly |
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Post by klaiggeb on Jun 15, 2013 10:35:39 GMT -5
Boly -- 12-I don't care how well Abreu did last night; I still give Noonan the majority of at bats vs RHP
Rog -- Neither one of those guys can hit well, but I think Tony is the better fielder. I also think I have more faith in Arias than either of the other two.
---boly says---
I'm not sure I agree with either of those 2 statements, Rog.
I haven't seen enough of either, but from the little I have seen;
1-Abreu hasn't impressed me in the field. He's missed, or mis handled a couple of plays I think he should have made.
But that said, his reputation is that he is a good fielder.
Noonan has shown me decent range, and soft hands on groundballs.
2-I like Abreu's swing, and swing set up; the bat is NOT pointing up in the air. It starts flat and stays flat through the zone.
He's also shown me that he can and will put good swings to either go with the pitch, or to pull.
Noonan; When he's getting regular at bats, (like he had coming out of ST), he's shown me he knows how to hit.
That's why, IMHO, at the opening of the season, he did so well.
When he stopped getting at bats... he struggled.
No. For me, at least in June, Noonan gets the majority of LH at bats.
boly
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 15, 2013 17:58:50 GMT -5
Boly -- 1-try to move him 2-move him to the pen 3-at the break IF the situation hasn't been corrected, part ways. Rog -- Barry is a tough case if he isn't starting. I don't know why Barry couldn't be a combination long reliever/Lefty One Out GuY (LOOGY). But there seems to be a concern -- I'm not sure if the Giants share it or if it is just the fans -- that Barry wouldn't make a good reliever. If he's a long reliever, he doesn't HAVE to be particularly good to fill his role. If he gets into LOOGY-ing (sorry), it becomes more important that he pitch better -- although only in spurts of one, two or perhaps three batters. One point that could be important. We saw today that Chad Gaudin may not be quite as good as a starter as he's shown. The Giants don't have a lot of depth in their rotation and are said to be looking for another starter. It may be that they'd like the flexibility of putting Gaudin back in relief, where he was terrific. Aside from Madison Bumgarner, no Giants starter has significantly outpitched Zito, and in fact former aces Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum have ERA's that aren't quite a tenth of a run lower than Barry. Now, please, don't think I'm standing up and shouting about Barry. Back when he was pitching rather well earlier this season, I felt it was only a matter of time until he faltered. That said, the Giants are 7-6 in the games he has pitched this season; 28-25 in their other games. In other words, Barry hasn't (yet) hurt the Giants, and the Giants did win EACH of his last 11 starts last season. Right now the Giants have no one to replace Barry in the rotation. That's part of the reason they're looking to trade for a starting pitcher. They may not be able to get a significant upgrade over Barry without giving up more of their future than they (and perhaps we) would like. If they do add another starter, they may prefer to leave Barry in the rotation so they can strengthen their bullpen. They don't yet know when Ryan Vogelsong will return. Barry has allowed one or fewer runs over 5.0 or more innings in nearly half of his starts (6 of 13). If the Giants are going to lose, it doesn't really matter if they lose 5-4 or 105-4. My point is that while Barry has had some HORRIBLE starts, nearly half the time he's actually been good to very good. I don't like Barry as a starter, and I'd like to see the Giants be in position to trade him before the deadline. But there are three scenarios where it might make sense for him to stay: . The Giants aren't able to get anyone else, meaning they really can't afford to replace him. . Barry turns it around and pitches well enough to remain in the rotation. . The Giants replace him in the rotation but keep him in relief so that he is available as an emergency starter. I guess what I'm saying is we might not want to throw Barry out with the bath water. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1830&page=1#11723#ixzz2WKKXxwx3 |
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 15, 2013 18:19:01 GMT -5
Boly -- And as to yours? Really? You thought he'd rebound? Rog -- There wasn't really an overriding reason NOT to expect Barry to rebound after his 2011 season. Injury wrecked his 2011 season, and while there was certainly no guarantee he would bounce back, his injury history boded well for health in 2012. The one thing Barry did improve on in 2011 was that he threw more ground balls. I guess maybe it was a coin flip as to whether Barry would bounce back, but injuries certainly messed up his 2011 season -- beginning in April. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1830&page=1#ixzz2WKRVqusd |
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Post by Islandboagie on Jun 15, 2013 21:56:24 GMT -5
--boly says---
Rog, that was my statement.
And as to yours? Really? You thought he'd rebound?
Please, call my nurse and make an appointment. We have some couch time open and I think I need to examine your mental well being.
Boagie- I remember Rog predicting a rebound. But this shouldn't come as a surprise to you, Rog will always predict a rebound after a poor season and a decline after a good season. He's a numbers guy, when in doubt, go to the career averages, so the word "predict" should be used very loosely. To be fair, that is a relatively accurate method, however it shows no insight into the game itself, it just shows you can read.
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Post by sharksrog on Jun 17, 2013 16:11:40 GMT -5
Boagie- I remember Rog predicting a rebound. But this shouldn't come as a surprise to you, Rog will always predict a rebound after a poor season and a decline after a good season. He's a numbers guy, when in doubt, go to the career averages, so the word "predict" should be used very loosely. To be fair, that is a relatively accurate method, however it shows no insight into the game itself, it just shows you can read. Rog -- In general, players regress to their mean -- but not always. As an example. Tim Lincecum hasn't moved very far toward his mean this season. Looking for players to regress to their mean is usually more accurate than simply more or less guessing, which is what I did for years. A key is to come up with players who AREN'T likely to come back to the mean. And also to predict how young players will perform after a season or so when they dont' truly HAVE a mean to use for comparison. I'd have to think back to come up with players I didn't think would regress to their mean, but Barry Zito was a good example when he came to the Giants. Many weren't exactly sold on the guy, and that was one instance where I went away from the mean. I went back toward the mean with Tim this season, and that hasn't happened to nearly the degree I expected. Another technique using analytics is to find guys who are good platoon candidates yet come on the cheap. Andres Torres was such a case. I think I expected more from him than most her, since he actually hit WELL last season as a right-handed batter and thus made a nice complement to Gregor Blanco. Anyway, saying I go to the mean is a good generality. But it is far from a certainty. I appreciate that you mentioned that predicting a regression to the mean is accurate more often than not, but it is divergences from that general method that do show insight into the game -- although I'll admit that stats also go into my decisions where I DON'T regress to the mean. I have continually said that a combination of scouting and analytics works better than either alone, and I still believe that to be true. More and more major league teams are coming around to that way of thinking, as well. Ten years ago almost no teams had a stats guy. Now, almost all teams DO have one or more. Several of the guys I have read over the years now work for major league teams. As for having insight into the game itself, I've been able to carry on nice converstations with guys such as Chris Speier and Chris Lincecum. No one has been able to show where I DON'T have insight into the game, and I do appreciate your saying that mentioning that Andres Torres doesn't glide to the ball but rather reaches the spot and stops showed insight. That's just a small point. Don't think that because I use stats to prove the points I make that I don't have non-statistical insights into the game. It's just that stats are facts, whereas other observations I have into the game are mostly opinions. I often use stats, and I often reach conclusions that can be statistically based. But that certainly doesn't mean I don't look at the other aspects of the game. Just because my opinion differs yet can be backed up statistically doesn't preclude its being broadly based. Haven't you read my comments on managerial strategy? I'm pretty good at supporting the manager's decision even when it is disagreed with. Heck, there is strategy almost every game that could be challenged. Sometimes the manager just blew it. But many times he either knew something we don't have access to or evaluated certain likelihoods or contingencies differently than we do. Back before Bruce Bochy combined solid decisions with a little luck and got fantastic results in the 2010 postseason, I supported him as a good manager. If all I pay attention to are numbers, how did I manage to do that? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1830&page=1#11734#ixzz2WVbYkjlT |
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