Posey's going to be around for awhile

[allenreed]

Just agreed to an eight year $167 million dollar deal, with a club option for ninth year and a full no trade clause.

[Islandboagie]

I have to say I'm rather shocked at the price, but it's not my money. I'm happy they locked him up. Now, Tim Lincecum.

[Islandboagie]

Our young All-Star, MVP catcher gets signed to basically be a lifetime Giant, in a record deal for the Giants, and a catcher...and two posts?

Pathetic.

[sharksrog]

Boagie -- I have to say I'm rather shocked at the price, but it's not my money. I'm happy they locked him up. Now, Tim Lincecum.

Rog -- Signing a guy long-term three years sooner than you have to and right after he has won the MVP may not be ideal from a business standpoint. If he doesn't have quite as good a year in 2013, you might have a little more leverage.

On the other hand, with the bigger TV contracts coming into play, prices are rising. And if Buster were to have another great season, the price might go up even higher.

The contract more or less equates to Joe Mauer's 8/$184 contract, but is longer and for less per season. Mauer signed his contract beginning with his first year of free agency, whereas the first three years of Buster's new contract cover arbitration years, and the last six cover free agent years.

Because Mauer reached the majors at a younger age than Buster, each player will be 35 at the end of his contract. If the Giants exercise their $22 million option for 2023, Buster will be 36.

If Buster were to tail off a bit, the Giants might have been able to sign him for less a year from now. If Buster maintained his Hall of Fame level of play and salaries continued to rise as new TV contracts come into play, the contract could have hit $200 million.

The Giants are saying to Buster, you're our guy, and we're confident you will stay healthy and productive through most of the time through age 35. Buster is saying, I want to be a lifetime Giant, and this gives me tremendous security in doing so.

Probably a good deal for each side.

Buster gives up a good deal of upside (Albert Pujols was 6 years older when he signed for 10/$240), while the Giants make Buster a lifetime Giant by guaranteeing him additional nine years (he's already signed for this year) in a Giants uniform. The Giants get a $22 million option for Buster at age 36, a time when the very best players will likely be making twice that amount.

For Giants fans this should be taken as wonderful news. There are no guarantees, but this looks a lot better than Barry Zito's 7/$126. And it's more or less in line with the 5/$100 the Giants offered Tim Lincecum a year ago.

As for re -signing Tim, that's a tenuous one. If Tim doesn't pitch well, how badly will the Giants want him? And if he does, can they afford him?

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[allenreed]

I have to say I'm rather shocked at the price, but it's not my money. I'm happy they locked him up. Now, Tim Lincecum

Allen- Oh no. I'd wait and see with Lincecum. After we see how this season goes.

[Islandboagie]

Allen- Oh no. I'd wait and see with Lincecum. After we see how this season goes.

Boagie: I get that, but I'm quite certain Tim will turn it around. If they wait to sign and he does turn it around, then he'll probably walk for more money. If he doesn't, then we wouldn't want him anyways...so I really see the only chance of signing him is if we do it now.

So there it is, do we take the chance? let's consider the two bad outcomes.

We sign him and he stinks, then we put him in the bullpen. We've lost money, but that doesn't mean we're not competitive (see Barry Zito's contract.)

We dont sign him, he has a great year. Tim most certainly is going to test the FA market if he has a good year. Guess who has the most money, and guess who would love to get him away from the Giants? Tim Lincecum in a Dodgers Jersey will hurt.

[allenreed]

I'm ok with the optimism, and I really hope you're right, but what outside of blind faith makes you think Tim will return to form? There certainly hasn't been any indication of it this spring.

[Islandboagie]

I think I put a little more stock into what he did in the post-season rather than what he's done this spring. His numbers this spring haven't been good, but numbers mean nothing in spring. His velocity is up, his curveball seems to be breaking like it did back a few years ago, and he's been keeping the ball down more, except for the one start against Colorado.

[allenreed]

I'm looking more at last season than this spring, and he seems to still be having many of the same problems, the main one being lack of command. Cespedes sure seems to enjoy hitting off him.
Again, I hope you're right and I'm wrong on this one.

[sharksrog]

Allen- Oh no. I'd wait and see with Lincecum. After we see how this season goes.

Boagie: I get that, but I'm quite certain Tim will turn it around. If they wait to sign and he does turn it around, then he'll probably walk for more money. If he doesn't, then we wouldn't want him anyways...so I really see the only chance of signing him is if we do it now.

Rog -- I don't see how either side could sign right now.

The Giants can't really afford to commit to a long-term contract, not knowing what they're getting.

And Tim can't really accept a contract now that his value is down. Let's look at the three outcomes for him:

1. He bounces back strongly. His one horrible year is considered an outlier, and he gets something like 6/$150.

2. He bounces back moderately. He either takes something in the order of close to 5/$100 or takes a one-year contract in hopes of having one more great season and getting something like 5/$125.

3. He doesn't bounce back noticeably. He likely takes a one-year contract for something in the $10-$12 million range and hopes to bounce back strongly to get that big contract.

If he has confidence in himself, Tim waits now.

Boagie -- So there it is, do we take the chance? let's consider the two bad outcomes.

We sign him and he stinks, then we put him in the bullpen. We've lost money, but that doesn't mean we're not competitive (see Barry Zito's contract.)

Rog -- The Giants don't have anyone to replace him, and I can't see him taking much less than 5/$100. Time is on Tim's side, not the Giants'.

Boagie -- We dont sign him, he has a great year. Tim most certainly is going to test the FA market if he has a good year. Guess who has the most money, and guess who would love to get him away from the Giants? Tim Lincecum in a Dodgers Jersey will hurt.

Rog -- With the Giants already having a lot of money tied up in Buster, Matt Cain and Angel Pagan and with Hunter Pence perhaps in the mix for a 5/$100 contract if he has a good season, how much can the Giants afford to tie up in Tim?

If he has that good bounce-back season, do they want to tie up 6/$150 in him?

I think we talked a year ago about what a tough situation Tim has put the Giants in -- and that was before his horrible 2012. Tim is making $22.5 million this season. $22.5 million going to the pitcher who was the worst full-time starter in the National League last season.

If Tim's base is $22.5 million, how much do we think he will make if he bounces back with a really good year? My 6/$150 projection could be on the light side.

As for the Dodgers, don't we think that to a great extent, they've already shot their wad? Remember, they spent all that money last summer in order to make themselves highly competitive in the short run. Their long-term goal is to build from within.

Tim's two Cy Young awards have put him in a position where if he bounces back strongly this season, he will wind up being paid for the past in his next contract. And as big a fan I have been of him since the Giants drafted him nearly seven years ago now, I think his best pitching is behind him.

Does anyone here truly seeing him winning a third Cy Young? It pains my heart, but I myself don't.


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[sharksrog]

We should know a lot more about Tim by the All-Star break. By then, it will probably be too late to keep him from testing free agency. The only hope of signing him at that point would seem to be if he loves playing for the Giants to the extent that he would like to become a lifetime Giant. Even then, it's tough to go TOO far out with a pitcher -- especially one who has shown inconsistency.

[allenreed]

I can't see going anywhere near $20 million for Tim. I just don't think you can be that sure about him, no matter what he does this year. I wouldn't go for a very long contract either. I'm afraid the Giants will overpay because of his fan appeal, but then again, it's not my money, and I don't go to games anymore, so why should it matter to me?

[sharksrog]

Allen -- I can't see going anywhere near $20 million for Tim. I just don't think you can be that sure about him, no matter what he does this year. I wouldn't go for a very long contract either. I'm afraid the Giants will overpay because of his fan appeal, but then again, it's not my money, and I don't go to games anymore, so why should it matter to me?

Rog -- You have pinpointed why neither the Giants nor Tim would want a contract now. I think the earliest either side would consider a contract would be around midseason, and what will Tim's motivation be to take a contract at that point?

It would seem that the best chance of Tim's sticking around might be if he has another bad season and signs a one-year contract to try to regroup for a big, long contract.

As for why the agreement or lack thereof should matter to you, I believe you care about the Giants' winning.

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